The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.
The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.
Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.
The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.
A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).
In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.
zoomster@1146
Of course I am not saying he won. Where did you get that from?
I was describing characteristics he had which made some think he could still win.
But of course he faced a formidable opponent who easily beat him, despite his skills.
Be used
Do not tie me up
In knots
Tt
And I where talking about liberal trolls
I said that, they may claim copper does not corrode
OK, so setting sailing on a death march is a bit of mixed metaphor.
BEMUSED, SAID
1120 bemused Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 2:54 pm
“Copper has no corrosion”????
Where do you get your rubbish from?
alias
Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 3:14 pm | Permalink
The Samantha Maiden piece reads like a searing dose of reality,
————————————————–
Newsltd/abbott can not win the election against Gillard
wiht rudd they can
Catalyst
[
Regarding Tony Abbott’s Indigenous policy and trauancy- the plan is to fine parents whose children don’t attend school. I think with on the spot fines. Does that apply to ALL parents, or only Indigenous ones? ]
Soooo with high truancy rates in remote communities fining people on the bones of their arsks will help ? I assume the next step will to be to jail them for non payment of fines. That’s bound to help….Not
SO THERE FOR ALL TO SEE,
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY
BEING
BEMUSED
the death march is for abbott
News ltd and other pro coaliton media knows it
Abbott gets more publicly , the coalition will remain in opposition for another 2 terms
my say@1152
You tie yourself up in knots and baffle the rest of us.
my say@1154
You idiot.
I was quoting you. 😡
bbp
[I am not convinced that the voters are going to like being in continual campaign mode from February to September – despite the PM’s little bon mot of a “time for campaigning and a time for governing”. By the time the official campaign starts with the issue of the writs in August they will be well and truly fed up – and based on a previous precedent of a long campaign – blame the government.]
And who is keeping up the “continual campaign mode”? It’s Abbott, who has been in that mode since he lost the last election, backed up by most of the media, who see everything in terms of winning and losing, never policy.
On Insiders this morning Cassidy introduced a segment by saying Media Law was good policy but of course was a failure because of “process”. They then discussed process for the rest of the time – until Piers went off the rails and they all started laughing.
[the death march is for abbott
News ltd and other pro coaliton media knows it
Abbott gets more publicly , the coalition will remain in opposition for another 2 terms]
Meguire Bob has been let out of the asylum for Sunday afternoon.
[And who is keeping up the “continual campaign mode”? ]
Not much evidence of governing at Rooty Hill but lots of campaigning.
1112
Player One
[My guess is that the Noalition has had some focus group research telling them that Gillard has a growing reputation as a “tough negotiator” and for “getting stuff done” – and so they are desperate to try and counter this before it gets out of control.]
I think that is uncomfortably close to the truth for a lot of people.
Won’t be much longer before the voters accept the status quo on leaders and will have no further interest in leadershit, at which point the electoral game will change. Whether that translates to a win for Gillard Labor remains to be seen.
1114
my say
[She’s gone that was short and sweet
Must of gone to. Buy a new blue tie]
🙂
Meguire Bob has been let out of the asylum for Sunday afternoon.
You forgot to shut the door behind you on your way out again…
Within days of declaring there would be a time for governing and a time for campaigning Julia Gillard, the PM contradicted herself massively by heading off for Rooty Hill armed with her sinister plans to use 457 visas as her desperate means of cutting through to voters out there, saddled as they with job insecurity and high levels of suggestibility to xenophobic rants.
lizzie@1161
It doesn’t seem a popular notion here, but process is important as it goes to public acceptance of a good policy.
Piers is an absolute hoot. I would like him to be there every week to go gaa gaa like he did this morning. 👿
Scarpat, lovely lol
DONOT. CALL ME AN IDIOTT
U WHERE NOT
THE. POST IS NUMBEREd
Don’t u dare call me an idiot
I even posted corroed copper picture
And I have an authority sitting here next to me
I have been hearing the word copper ‘my whole married
Life and before
Don’t. U dare turn what I said around..
But I suppose u will
And. I wasn’t even posting to u. It. Was. T T s
Will u ever stop being a busy body
Lizzie,
[Not sure about the reshaping of the Constitution, don’t know enough about it.]
More just scaling back the vice-regal powers. “Radical reshaping” was probably a little hyperbolic. If we must be a Republic, I think the German model may be best.
Finns, do you have this one?
Australia rates second on the HDI (Human Development Index) with Norway coming first.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR2013_EN_Summary.pdf
Unchanged from last year, of course, so expect the media reports to be “Australia fails to improve….”
CTar:
Ruddstoration hysteria and frustration ebbs and flows depending on what the OM is saying.
After this week comes and goes with nothing changes they’ll be back to frustration again.
Wiliiam. Pls take note of bemused
Efforts.
Bongiorno:
“As I said too many confuse tabloid propaganda with journalism”
my say@1170
Why don’t you have a nice chat with Meguire Bill?
You both seem to be on the same wavelength.
alias
[saddled as they with job insecurity and high levels of suggestibility .]
Feelings fomented by the low people you support.
[You idiot.]
HOnestly. Why do you need to speak to others in such a way?
You really are a belligerant juvenile.
my say@1174
Yes William please do. And note how my say was verbaling me.
Bongiorno:
“As I said too many confuse tabloid propaganda with journalism”
a very sad indictment of the Australian Press corps.
News Ltd has gone over the top, in a most unhelpful manner on the media reform laws, and Piers Akerman compounded the problem with his minor meltdown on Insiders today.
However, they are essentially right. Any modifications to press freedom should be considered very carefully indeed, especially where it involved a government appointed person have oversight of the way the media regulates itself. It’s a slipperly slope. People in this country are way to blase about the benefits of press freedom (and Australia’s relatively tough libel laws mean there are plenty of counterbalances to press free already enshrined in the law). Just ask anyone from a country enjoying something short of press freedom.
[Meguire Bob has been let out of the asylum for Sunday afternoon.]
More intemperance.
Bemused
Normally I turn off when Piers has had three efforts at putting everyone else down, but today I rather enjoyed the glimpse of the “real Piers”, blown up like a bullfrog.
Confessions, I suspect that there will be a fair few of them like Piers whose frustration level is getting up there
Poroti..
If you’re suggesting I support the LNP and their appalling approach on the question of asylum seekers, you’re quite wrong. And in terms of appealing to xenophobia and base instincts, two wrongs don’t make a right.
Bugler
Should I Google the German model, or can you give it to me in a couple of sentences? 😉
alias@1150
[ The Samantha Maiden piece reads like a searing dose of reality … ]
Samantha Maiden may indeed have a searing dose of something … but it is not reality.
[ this time not in a limited readership paper like the SMH but in the mass circulation papers, the Sunday Herald Sun ]
Ummm … where to start on this? … nah … best just to leave it and move on …
[ And they know the time to act is now; that by setting sail from Canberra at the end of this week still helmed by Julia Gillard is a death march. ]
*sigh*
Rudd couldn’t get the numbers this week. What makes you think he will get them next week?
You and your trilobite friends are a little worried by the prospect of media regulation, methinks!
alias@1181
That was a “minor meltdown”? You mean the big one is still to come?
I can hardly wait. 👿
That press freedom stuff is BS.
The only ones enjoying a “free press” are the proprietors.
India 2/325. Dhawan lbw for 187 though he clearly edged the ball on to his pads.
[Confessions, I suspect that there will be a fair few of them like Piers whose frustration level is getting up there]
Without a doubt.
I wasn’t being flippant when I said the Rudstoration hysteria/frustration that happens here mirrors what’s happening in OM.
alias@1185
alias, there is a very real issue of abuse of 456 & 457 visas and many in the workforce are adversely affected.
The solution lies in better enforcement and transparency.
Just Me
[Would you buy a car or house without doing some basic homework, and then get outraged at the lack of sympathy from the world when you got a dud?]
The analogy doesn’t hold at all.
Your car choice 100% determines what you end up with.
Your voting choice 0.00001% determines what you end up with.
In terms of efficient use of your time, effort expended on the car is thousands of times more useful than on what party to vote for.
lizzie
[I rather enjoyed the glimpse of the “real Piers”, blown up like a bullfrog.]
I have long thought of him as a cane toad. You tell me if this is not Pies on the right hand chair on The Insiders ? ;).
.
On a brighter note a nice Cane Toad comedy cartoon. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3ENUqV5-bw
bemused
Dostoevski: The Idiot.
The idiot was a man.
All what the coalition has to offer in question time
Bellowing Joe Hockey , every time a member of the labor party exposes the coalition
gigi@1194
There are idiots of both genders.
Player One
Clearly the unexpectedly OK Newspoll (a comprehensive defeat not an unimaginable wipeout) gave Julia Gillard a bit of a boost.
Who knows what will happen this week. For the sake of the nation, it is to be hoped that enough federal Labor Caucus members in marginal seats read the Samantha Maiden piece and thought: “There is simply no escaping the logic in there, no matter how much loyalty I feel to JG.”
Also, JG is a very smart woman of course, and I suspect she’s smart enough to know that the writing is on the wall. Like all leaders with their back against the wall, she has to play it tough right up till the moment of capitulation. That’s part of the game, but I feel certain she knows very well where things are at, and what is necessary to avoid PM Abbott.
How can newsltd/abbott coalition expect to be an alternative , when thats all it has to offer
[Who knows what will happen this week.]
Well here’s one prediction.
1. Neilsen will come out which will be bad for the govt.
2. This will create Ruddstoration Hysteria as OM anticipate a leadership change.
3. This will be quickly followed by Ruddstoration Frustration when the week passes as normal, and Parliament recesses for another 7 weeks.
4. Ruddstoration hysteria/frustration will continue to ebb and flow according to whatever is being written by Hartcher, Maiden, whoever Ruddists happen to agree with on any given week.
poroti
Briiiilliant animation. Bit gory, but I enjoyed it. 🙂