A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count as it unfolds.
A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count as it unfolds. I won’t be offering my usual live blogging as I will be part of ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with federal Labor MP Gary Gray and Liberal Senator David Johnston. You will be able to follow this on News Radio or any local WA ABC station.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Have i got it right, #Slynews has already gone into PM Gillard bashing mode big time
So don’t watch it already.
What time does News Radio’s coverage start?
Past 9pm and not a single vote counted….you guys are slow out west :devil:
No exit polling even?
Maybe the ALP should have put more than one policy in for costing.
The Libs had 108 costed.
@janecat60 And having Bruce Hawker there to defend PM Gillard & Labor is like asking Dracula to guard the Blood Bank
Confessions – I suspect exit polling will be non-existant.
WA Electoral Act bans exit polling inside 100m of the booth.
Offical this morning at Dianella Community Centre had a huge argument with a lady trying to exit poll for Wespol – I thought police were going to be called.
Newspol has exit polled – how did they get inside the 100m exclusion zone?
CC:
We’ve had exit polling before IIRC.
Watching Sky coverage.
Discussion of first lot of exit poll data – how could it be extrapolated federally and be bad news for Gillard.
Discussion of second lot of exit poll data – how could it be extrapolated federally and be bad news for Gillard.
Discussion of third lot of exit poll data – how could it be extrapolated federally and be bad news for Gillard.
Gary Gray making sense on ABC radio. Unsurprisingly Johnston linking WA result to federal Labor.
gc:
So the usual Sky News commentary then?
“@ABCNews24: Watch our #WAVotes coverage now with Kerry O’Brien, @AntonyGreenABC, Defence Minister Stephen Smith & Deputy Oppn Leader @JulieBishopMP.”
guytaur:
Or you could listen to our host:
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/audio/streaming.htm
“@justinbarbour: RT @paulyt_aus: Skynews exit poll. 89% of coalition voters and 70% of Labor voters intend to vote the same way federally. #wavotes”
Alana McTiernan blaming the Newspol result this morning pushed people tovote against ALP and pointing out swing against Greens.
Torvil & Dean would be impressed with that spinning.
David Johnston appears to have called Albany for the Liberals on exit polling.
Confessions
Antony has his touch screen. Our host being on radio can’t do that.
guytaur:
I don’t need gimmicks, much as I might admire them.
William says a swing to the Libs in Murray-Wellington of 5.4%
Red Kerry is still the old master though.
“End the thuggish union influence” tweets someone to the ABC radio purporting to be K Rudd.
Laughs all round.
Stephen Smith expects ‘a tough and bad night for Labor’.
If William says that he feels ‘that I am comfortable’ again, I will scream.
I hope William will learn, that while on air, he is there for the listeners not to feel happy that his own prognostications may be what he thinks they will be.
doGs. Green reckons he will call it early. 🙁
“@abcnews: .@antonygreenabc says he may be able to call the WA election in ‘a couple of minutes’ #wavotes”
David Johnston is sounding very upbeat.
Jeez, do I put a roast beef on, or just go for something out of the freezer? Looking like the latter.
Stephen Smith talking up only a 2-5% swing away on PV in some seats. that doesn’t sound good.
The Liberals have won the election in WA. The only thing in doubt is now the size of their majority.
Stepehn Smith struggling to find 20 seats for Labor.
Seems like a large swing/vote for Greens in Kimberley which’d be off-trend. Almost shaping as a 4-way contest.
Any intel on that seat?
Stephen Smith was the first to declare 72 seats only for ALP on 21 August 2010
Nats win Kal.
Albany. What’s happening in Albany?
shellbell@33
He was a back room guy long before he got into A grade.
I like him though.
Buswell more than 75% 2PP. A snifter result!
A small swing to the Libs in Albany, but probably enough for them to win. Labor may hold Forrestfield, but is getting very big negative swings in other Perth seats.
Did Troy Buswell really just say both that ‘going the man’ was A) “like country footy” and B) “unaustralian”?
If you don’t want to listen to all this silly chat on the ABC, you can follow the count directly here:
http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/results/sg2013/la
Michelle Roberts under threat!
I can’t stand Michelle Roberts having met her several times, but still, what a swing!
I really don’t understand, what has Labor done to deserve such swings?
A nice dress rehearsal for Fed Labor
Psephos:
I thought Watson would lose to the cardboard cut-out Lib. Such a shame.
I actually find it quite disturbing that an idiot like Buswell can get elected with 75%.
Presumably that’s in the sense of ‘when my friends do it, it’s like country football’ and ‘when my enemies do it, it’s unaustralian’.
Bugler:
First term govts are usually returned for a second term. But I recall in the past first term minority govts often are returned with majorities for their second term.
Current primary votes: Libs 47.0%, Nats 9.7%, ALP 30.6%, Greens 7.8%. If that holds up, Newspoll’s 60/40 TPP will be about right.
[Did Troy Buswell really just say both that ‘going the man’ was A) “like country footy” and B) “unaustralian”?]
Yup. He’s not the sharpest knife in the draw, but he obviously knows where the Liberal Parties skeletons are buried. Dare i say he can sniff them out??
Albany looks like having the bumbling Cosh for a local member.