A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count as it unfolds.
A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count as it unfolds. I won’t be offering my usual live blogging as I will be part of ABC Radio’s live coverage, along with federal Labor MP Gary Gray and Liberal Senator David Johnston. You will be able to follow this on News Radio or any local WA ABC station.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Anthony Green brown suit? Oh dear.
Said it elsewhere, and months ago, there was no possibility of a Labor win tonight.
The cards have been marked for months.
This was a first term government which has done okay being opposed by an opposition which took a long time to find a leader who could take it up to Barnett.
On the other hand if Rudd had been PM and the Dalai Lama was leading Labor, the conservatives would still have won tonight because in the eyes of the electorate, they have been going along okay.
There was no mood for change.
At the coming September election I wish I knew what the mood was. According the the media, Labor is already dead and buried yet no one is actually falling over themselves in a hurry to vote Tony Abbott in either.
I think people are still reserving their hand.
It goes without saying that nothing is over until the fat lady sings.
Bob’s not back. Bugger.
Best thing about this result is the absolute smashing of the Greens.
@Tricot/151
100% agreed.
Alot of people are not thinking of federal election for some months.
Also around mid year (I think) is the Tax returns as well – not sure how that will play in terms of economics + spending etc.
Frightening to see how much of the northern suburbs coastal seats are now solid liberal. Joondalup, Ocean Reef, Carine etc. What happened to the WA of my youth.
Henry – thats where all the McMansions are so its not the WA of your youth. It’ll be a wasteland in 30 years
Goodnight friends
Labor south of the river seems to be strong but north of the river seems now to be liberal heartland.
Amazing how things change.
Albany down to the wire again.
Seems like everybody is aspirational now…
Balcatta FFS is now liberal.
WA – the state that is and will be the most devastated by climate change sees a swing against the only parties who really want to mitigate it’s impacts. Go figure.
Leaky Nat vote, presumably.
Surely ALP prefs to Greens won’t be nearly as strong as the reverse. Probably not even as strong as the Nat prefs to Libs.
Cripes, what a hammering.
Anyone know why the GRN in Kimberley has done so well, especially considering the general drop in WA GRN vote?
[159
Henry
Seems like everybody is aspirational now…
Balcatta FFS is now liberal.
WA – the state that is and will be the most devastated by climate change sees a swing against the only parties who really want to mitigate it’s impacts. Go figure.]
The Greens are likely to be the greatest losers today. But this is not a surprise. The rhetoric that emanates from the Federal Greens is generally hostile to the everyday interests of WA voters. Christine Milne may think she’s been doing a good job, but she has just helped wipe the WA Greens off the map.
The collapse of Labor’s vote in the Kimberley and Pilbara is extraordinary.
I can’t see why people like Compact Crank(well named I think !) derive pleasure from the fall in the Green vote..
\there’s nothing else to be pleased with
The Greens are here to stay and it’s the catastrophic Labor vote that should be the cause for concern!
42% for Labor PP…with Green prefs very solid for Labor
So why the pleasure!!
This puts WA in the same bracket as the recent results in the NT/NSW/Qland
so what is to done ?????
and it all confirms the Federal polling of recent days so I think
Julia and the Bloke better start to packing
\and what does Rudd think of this endless cavalcade of losses…even though the WA ALP kept Julia away it still rolled on
The Greens have lost ground everywhere except Kimberley where they have given Labor a right royal rogering, regardless of who wins the 4 way contest.
The final count in the Kimberley looks to depend on whether Farrer (Labor) can beat Pucci (Nats) into third place. If Farrer gets to third, she may well win. If Pucci gets third then the Greens could pinch the seat in a massive boilover. Very interesting contest this.
@164 – the Greens are a radical extremist fringe group harbouring anti-humanist and communist tendencies – both ALP and Coalition should preference them last.
So the question has to be asked of the ALP – why such a massive swing? State issues with the ALP? Can’t see anything there. It’s not like the Coalition are setting the world on Fire – so nothing there. Ooooh loook – Federal ALP . . . .
Lefty, I think it’s a protest against some port or other in the Kimberley.
…the greens vote that is…
Thanks Henry. Seems to buck the trend strongly, so I figured something local, and big.
@CC/168
Incumbent my best bet.
It is obvious that voters in mining areas are now completely off the ALP, no doubt in no small part due to the bungling of Commonwealth taxes on iron ore extraction and the political success of “royalties for regions.”
This means Labor’s support is now mostly confined to its hard-core base in the metro area with some shrinking remnant support in regional towns. Rebuilding in the bush and in middle-income suburbia are now big challenges for the WA party.
Unfortunately for WA Labor, voters identify the Federal ALP as being opposed to WA’s best economic interests. It is absolutely no surprise to see voters around the State swinging to the Liberals on the basis of these perceptions, notwithstanding the generally good standing of Mark McGowan and the local ALP team as a whole.
There are some big issues ahead for WA, however, and these include the very large debts we have, the ongoing demand for more infrastructure and social spending, and the outlook for the post-boom economy. WA Labor is going to have to focus on these issues with or without any help from the Commonwealth.
Even McGowan speaking against the CO2 Tax doesn’t seem to have helped much.
So looking forward to the ALP Federal Community Cabinet over here.
WA seems always a weird state to me.
Well done Rita and the West Swan team.
Meguire Bob
Anyone seen Meguire Bob – I’d like to get his take on the Newspol result this moring versus the election result tonight.
[175
zoidlord
WA seems always a weird state to me.]
WA has been going it alone for a very long time in very many ways. The economic base is in resources, agriculture, transport, engineering and construction, is highly export-oriented and capital-intense. There is relatively little manufacturing. Because of our remoteness, there is almost nothing in the way of a Commonwealth public service presence or of economic dependency on direct Commonwealth spending. We have a very large and recently-arrived immigrant population. For these people, the past is far less important than the future, and this shapes their personal and political expectations. So our economic and demographic context differs significantly from other States.
As well, we can see that national political, media and social attention is focused on Sydney/Melbourne/Canberra/Brisbane, and that any interest in WA is generally just an afterthought. Naturally, the people of WA look to each other rather than to others for affiliation, affirmation and leadership. This has been a long-standing feature of business, creative and social life and political culture too. So you’re right, WA is not the same as other States. It’s not hard to see why we so often go our own way.
[Frightening to see how much of the northern suburbs coastal seats are now solid liberal. Joondalup, Ocean Reef, Carine etc. What happened to the WA of my youth.]
Sounds to me like it’s behaving as it always did. The northern suburbs moved en bloc with changes of government in 1983, 1993 and 2001. 2008 bucked the trend, but tonight they caught up.
[Anyone know why the GRN in Kimberley has done so well, especially considering the general drop in WA GRN vote?]
Two words: James Price Point.
[180
William Bowe
Frightening to see how much of the northern suburbs coastal seats are now solid liberal. Joondalup, Ocean Reef, Carine etc. What happened to the WA of my youth.
Sounds to me like it’s behaving as it always did. The northern suburbs moved en bloc with changes of government in 1983, 1993 and 2001. 2008 bucked the trend, but tonight they caught up.]
Exactement…C’est la meme chose.
Labor got a rollocking but it’s not as bad as it could have been, they’re a good shot for 20 seats which isn’t that bad considering it was Barnett’s first term, the strong economy and the federal smear campaign.
To my mind the fact that Labor lost in north metro is a good thing for them, they should theoretically be the easiest seats to win back. In 4 years time we’ll have had another term of WA infrastructure/transportation neglect and broken promises, and (presumably) a federal Liberal term where Abbott has finally show just how complete his ineptitude is and how empty his doomsaying is. The Liberal brand will have the same ‘toxicity’ they accuse Labor of having if not more, on both the federal and state level. Compound that with the fact that second time around McGowan will already be established as a popular leader and he could probably run on the exact same platform and walk it.
Current ABC calculator projections give upper house seats to Family First and Shooters & Fishers. Believe it when you see it though.
Actually, Ben Raue thinks Shooters & Fishers will win in Agricultural, which makes me take it more seriously. Didn’t realise Trenorden had bombed so badly – 6.4% and 0.4492 quotas. Shooters easily outpolled the other right wing minors and absorb their preferences – and they get preferences ahead of Trenorden not only from Labor and Liberal, but also the Greens (!).
184
The full glory of preferential voting in action.
Does that mean people in WA can look forward to being shot at in national parks ?
Trenorden ahead of shooters lap 14, Labor falls at 15, giving it all to .. Shooters .. then the Greens fall, Shooters .. this is why one must vote below the line .. stupids running the preference deals
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/guide/agri-results.htm
Well I see the Sunday Times is peddling as fast as it can to link what happened in the West to Federal Labor.
Cooler heads will be more sensible and recognise the local factors – and it must be said some acid towards Federal Labor – are really at the heart of the matter.
The inability of Labor to win Morely says it all. This seat, despite the election, is still a nominal Labor seat and though Labor came close, close is not enough.
The win highlights the fact that a moderately competent government, in good economic times, looking for a second term usually gets it.
Despite the hoo-ha, even the Liberals admit that “not everyone likes Colin Barnett” yet he is still the Premier. And, winning the debate and campaign goes to show this are mainly chaff from the media and for the punters.
I wonder how many elections are won and lost on the basis of such “debates”.
It should be a reminder to those in Canberra that a “popular” leader is not always the winner.
At no point, for instance, has the question of the $18 billion state debt been really questioned – debt being something that seems to get the Coalition into a frenzy at the federal level.
Come four years from now with a brand new football stadium, expensive real estate and coffee around Betty’s Jetty for the plebs to look at, even worse chaos on the roads, and despite what his says, no Colin Barnett, I wonder how easy it will be for the conservatives a third time around?
Still, there will be no question where to sheet the blame/responsibility oh, unless some kind federal government coughs up half the cost of all the promises. Not much likelihood from Labor and even less from Abbott I would have thought.
I wait with bated breath on the railway to the airport and the light rail being built on time and on budget.
the normal pattern @ the state level appears to be a narrow win
followed by a very comfortable win…… this appears to have happened in WA……… what is interesting is where Labor has under performed…….. these will constitute about half on the 10 to 12 seats needed to win govt
Also the 3rd election in the cycle above tends to be much closer