Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A new Galaxy poll says pretty much what every federal poll recently has been saying.

The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.

Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,472 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

  1. Diog –

    It’s just one poll amongst many and one poll means next to nothing.

    Normally that is very good advice.

    However. Timing appears to be everything right at the moment. As Psephos said above, a bad Newspoll right at this moment could be the seed to precipitate various possible significant actions.

    This week has been mooted as significant in terms of having caucus together and any leadership challenge would be likely this week. Tomorrow, in fact, has been mentioned by various commentators.

    The conspiracy could now be that Newspoll deliberately skewed this poll in Labor’s favour to keep Julia Gillard in the job!

    Ah well, who knows. You’re right, it’s just one poll.

  2. [alias
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    This Newspoll result will delight Tony Abbott.

    It means he almost certainly gets to face Julia Gillard at the election.]

    After a solid week of the Liberals trying to get rid of the PM I suspect you are missreading the situation.

  3. That knocks my aggregate down to 54.

    I’m a bit quiet at the moment because my main computer with a lot of my past polling data on it is out of action and needs repair; if all else fails I have a backup that’s 2 months old which will be easily brought up to standard.

    Newspoll rolling average now decidedly inside the Howard 2001 curve again. However, this poll is well off the average trend so shouldn’t be taken as evidence that 52 is really where it’s at.

  4. RE Newspoll tonight
    ____
    I am amazed that some po on this Blog of all places … seem to believe that a poll would be”rejigged “by Murdoch or delayed to help him aid Abbott
    Why would Rupert even care ???
    Paranoia of a high order

    Finnagans//take a Bex and have a good lie down

  5. Some dill somewhere will write that the latest Newspoll is further evidence of the instability and uncertainty afflicting the economy. The cry will be for “certainty” and an end to ” the paralysis of Govt.”.

    Or they might consume themselves for a few days with navel gazing about the value of so many polls and churn out solemn articles analysing “the impact of polls”. Anything to avoid writing 11,000 word articles about the future of the NBN using direct quotes from industry experts. Who will read that?

  6. well how could that be lol

    i know of nothing that happened since last np

    or was it western sydney.

    or is it melbourne
    or is just plan lucky who they ask

    all these and many questions will be revealed in
    50 years

  7. 2456

    It is about 29 outside where I am now. It will be the urban heat island effect that has the centre of the city hotter. I am disliking this record breaking run of days over 30. I hope Bolt is not way at the moment.

  8. MOD LIB

    not to us it isnt, it should be higher and would be if some one in the media talked policy

    one has to go to the labor web page to find them

    which reminds me we should link each policy with twitter

    o u can now

  9. Psephos@2450

    Are you saying Caucus is as psephologically ignorant as the general population?


    Sadly yes.

    Incidentally, this should be an object lesson for those who keep trying to tell us that Newspoll is rigged. A bad Newspoll tonight would have been extremely dangerous for Gillard. If ever it suited News Ltd to produce a bad Newspoll, tonight would have been the time.

    Why?
    I share your dismissive attitude to polls being rigged, but I am sure they would want to keep Gillard there.

  10. A weather expert recently said that global waarming in Victoria might give Melb a long dry summer every year…rainless monthsfrom Oct to now …(just like the present one)with the climate like that of the western Riverina dry …as this has been…wi or two welcome breaks with rain like we had two weeks ago..a saviour to the gardens…but not typical

  11. Four Corners ..Tonight.. Obeid and Tripodi at al
    ____________________________
    One could only look with shocck and dismay on the long criminal catalogue of the NSW ALP and the disasters which followed…and those doomed Premier’s..with Kennelly looking particularly dumb

    One couldn’t hazard a quess at how long they will remain out of office…12 years.24 years…forever…and the Federal effects ????

  12. This Newspoll is a tragic twist of fate for federal Labor, and for Australia more generally.

    It may well prove to be an outlier, but that won’t alter the significance that Psephos and others quite rightly ascribe to the apparent improvement in the Government’s position in terms of tomorrow’s headlines and tomorrow’s Caucus meeting.

    What a disaster, really. It runs counter to virtually every poll we’ve seen for many weeks now, and counter to any reasonable assessment of the week that was, leaving aside the Victorian Liberals’ woes.

    Still, that’s the way it has gone, so Labor is almost certainly stuck with Gillard.

    Maybe a PM Abbott won’t be as bad as we all fear.

  13. Sarah Joseph ‏@profsarahj

    Hey. Those of you in the ALP who’ve been leaking & moaning to journos about the leadership for two years. Just imagine if you hadn’t!

  14. AWW, look!…Rummel, mod lib, t.paine..et all got mud on dair wittle faces…aww..let mommy put a wittle spittle on her hanky and wipe dair wittle cheekies!….diddums!…there you go..: 52/48 w/percentage not so bad is it…my cheeky wittle monkies!

  15. Now off you go to unkool Rupert..he will change your nappies and wipe your wittle botties for you…Aren’t they cute…tee hee!

  16. deblonay says..”One could only look with shocck and dismay on the long criminal catalogue of the NSW ALP and the disasters which followed…and those doomed Premier’s..with Kennelly looking particularly dumb.”
    One wonders and can easily conclude that the criminality didn’t stop at political boundaries…those bankers and speculators that loaned Obied the money were Liberals and some of the companies that bought into the scheme were liberal backers…and where was Sinodinos lurking in the scheme of things?

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