The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.
Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.
Pfft!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
[Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.]
Just goes to show how well informed the respondents are.
Such a lovely fellow is Hadley! And just think that it is he and those of his ilk that are going to give us a Coalition government.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/how-i-refused-to-back-down-to-ray-hadley-20130309-2fsg8.html
And it goes from bad to worse for the Sharks.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/shark-attack-20130309-2fsyt.html
And you can bet your sweet bippy that the purchasers of these services are Liberal voters.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bikie-gangs-called-in-on-building-debts-20130309-2fsi2.html
And what one one say about the result in the West?
…. mornin’ Gecko …. if that’s your expression of distaste about ruddsters, their apologists and assorted inflamers, then yairs, I’m agreement. p and fff.
And from the Land of the Free –
Alan Grayson issues a warning.
http://americablog.com/2013/03/alan-grayson-social-security-benefit-cuts-will-prompt-civil-disobedience.html
A good cartoon showing political engagement over there.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/03/09/cartoon-of-the-day-that-explains-it/
Jon Stewart rips Rand Paul’s 12 hour fillibuster.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/jon-stewart-slams-mcconnell-joining-paul
Some Bill Maher.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-to-panel-its-crazy-that-obama-had-dinner-with-republicans-just-to-educate-them-on-what-hes-actually-said/
[BK
..
Some Bill Maher.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-to-panel-its-crazy-that-obama-had-dinner-with-republicans-just-to-educate-them-on-what-hes-actually-said/%5D
The sad think is a national broadcaster is not going to preotect us from this shit. Last night we leant that the Julie Bishop’s rant against the PM was news.
The rant is not a worry, that the ABC thought it was news is.
As to the rant, I think is is wonderful the Liberals are so concerned about Labor’s relection chances.
frednk
I have put myself on a starvation diet of politics on TV since last December.
I think this is arguing that Labor has obviously become Liberal light, and when faced with that, there is a large chunk that vote for the real thing.
It’s really sad, the PM has actually implemented a progressive agenda, it has “in my view” all been messed up by follwoing the liberals down a couple of right wing sewers.
http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/03/07/we-cant-all-be-right/
frednk
I agree. Its like Meg Lees voting for the GST. Going against what people believe you stand for.
That AWU speech when PMJG said Labor was not a progressive party lost a lot of people on top of those positions of things like Marriage Equality
Voters punish that badly.
democracy over and done good bye
and yes they will suffer to
After adverts Sunrise is doing story on legal loophole allowing religion to discriminate
enjoy your day with bemused.
people are not reading on line
what hell do we do,
we know what a life with abbott would be like
hell on earth.
what s wrong with these people
are they so blind they just read
or on the other hand just where are polls taken
in margin al seats,
i think it up to mr bowe to actully investigate this
after al he is the one with the degree
if we had list of every seat they ask questions in we would have a an idea,
Nice little quote in one of the comments:
http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/03/07/we-cant-all-be-right/
[
It’s just the latest in a series of decisions that exclude a lot of potential Labor voters. Single parents on Newstart, same sex marriage supporters, renewable energy enthusiasts, asylum seeker sympathisers.
]
Labor has raised the pension and ended some grandfathering of some benefits. I wonder how much killing the grandfathering saved the budget, I wonder what Labor will be remembered for, I wonder how many votes they will get from pensioners, how many they lose from single mums that were once grandfathered.
All good policy, politically stupid.
Labor has given same sex coupled full legal rights, but they bulked at a word. Which will they be remembered for.
Personnal I think both sides a crazy.
Renewable energy. They gave us the much needed carbon trading scheme, they stopped the solar program, which will they be remembered for.
Good policy, but we love our solar panels, makes saving the environment more personal.
And my pet hate, the miss treatment of other human beings. They gave us community detention, but they can’t work, they shipped a few hundred unfortunate individualist of to a god forsaken places at a cost that far exceeds the cost of raising a few kids on single parent pensions. What will they be remembered for. Save the situation ion WA did it Psephos.
Bad policy, bad PR.
Psephos said that the progressives shouldn’t push too hard. Pandering to western Sydney working well?.
You know when you go through it all as I just have, Rooty Hill has got nothing to do with it. Rudd-Gillard is a side show (with a poll showing Gillard is preferred). The press; yes they are a pain.
The real issue is bone headed stupidity.
Liberal heavy is going to win.
Victorian Bitter. Will they ever regain their market share.
Guytaur
The PM did not say Labor was not a progressive party, she said:
[I come here to this union’s gathering as a Labor leader.
I’m not the leader of a party called the progressive party.
I’m not the leader of a party called the moderate party.
I’m not the leader of a party even called the socialist democratic party.
I’m a leader of the party called the Labor Party deliberately because that is what we come from.
That is what we believe in and that is who we are.
As the leader I can say to you 2013 will be about fighter for the Labor cause each and every day.
Fighting each and every day as we govern and then each and every day of the election campaign.]
my say
The Fat Lady has not sung. Labor still can win with a good scare campaign highlighting the progressive achievments made and what is under threat from Abbott.
He is campaigning on trust. Labor has to destroy the ability of people totrust Aboot. It should not be too hard even with OM on Abbott’s side
i like an answer,
does the poll come with the areas that where phoned
which seats,
also ilike to see a list of every question
surely this site can provide that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy_Research
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Greetings My Say
A tad negative this morning aren’t we? Polls schmolls I reckon… wait for the budget and Gonski funding initiatives … only then will we be able to assess Labor’s chances. It all boils down to that in my opinion.
well there yo go silly silly siily
me i had no idea that galaxy also do polls for news ltd
Oh and for those that are not in the know. Victorian Bitter was a real bear, less alcohol than wine, but more than you average beer. The makers fiddled with the formula and lost the market. They have gone back to the formula that was the market success.
Gecko
[The PM did not say Labor was not a progressive party, she said:]
You are right, but John Howard style double negatives won’t get Gillard elected. All the polls say that Federal Labor is on course for disaster. I have said before, it is as much about style, corruption and communication as it is about policy.
Regarding the poll, I think the people are right saying the Libs are ready to govern. I do not mean that they will govern well, fairly or ethically. But they look united, and look as though they know what they want to do. That is all they need.
I think Gillard’s conference speech was a disaster. She alienated at least 1/3 of Labor’s potential vote, which remains in the low 30s. Naturally there was no bounce. It was the speech you give when you think it is lost and want to hang onto those ultra safe seats which factional heavies have kept for themselves.
Gecko
[The PM did not say Labor was not a progressive party, she said:]
You are right, but John Howard style double negatives won’t get Gillard elected. All the polls say that Federal Labor is on course for disaster. I have said before, it is as much about style, corruption and communication as it is about policy.
Regarding the poll, I think the people are right saying the Libs are ready to govern. I do not mean that they will govern well, fairly or ethically. But they look united, and look as though they know what they want to do. That is all they need.
I think Gillard’s conference speech was a disaster. She alienated at least 1/3 of Labor’s potential vote, which remains in the low 30s. Naturally there was no bounce. It was the speech you give when you think it is lost and want to hang onto those ultra safe seats which factional heavies have kept for themselves.
Gecko
[The PM did not say Labor was not a progressive party, she said:]
You are right, but John Howard style double negatives won’t get Gillard elected. All the polls say that Federal Labor is on course for disaster. I have said before, it is as much about style, corruption and communication as it is about policy.
Regarding the poll, I think the people are right saying the Libs are ready to govern. I do not mean that they will govern well, fairly or ethically. But they look united, and look as though they know what they want to do. That is all they need.
I think Gillard’s conference speech was a disaster. She alienated at least 1/3 of Labor’s potential vote, which remains in the low 30s. Naturally there was no bounce. It was the speech you give when you think it is lost and want to hang onto those ultra safe seats which factional heavies have kept for themselves.
have i got it right, @ABCNews24 looks to be in a celebration mode with LNP’s big win in WA
[Gecko
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 7:58 am | Permalink
The PM did not say Labor was not a progressive party, she said:
..
I’m not the leader of a party called the progressive party.
..]
And you think splitting hairs is going to change the trajectory?
Socrates
Pardon? Could you repeat that please? 🙂
geko
i get a bit reactionary sometimes
i appologise
just like to get every aust. sit them down and shake their brain,
yes i will go to the naughty corner,”sigh
you could ask bowe to delte my posts
gald you told me off
.
who some one any know is there polling company that does not link its self with any one
that just does its own thing,
mr bowe may be able to tell us its a serious question,
reasearch it , for the blog
do a list of companies and their business models
Gecko
Its public perception that counts. The public heard “I do not lead a progressive party”
Votes lost
the so called experts are kidding themselves if they are taking these polls seriously
tuesday to thurday lol ,
Sigh, sorry for the multiple post. Having trouble with iPad and Wifi.
I’ll be out for the day. In one sense I agree that the WA result was not about Gillard. On the other hand it did reflect badly on aspects of the party structure, long obsolete unless you are a union official dreaming of Canberra. Those aspects will continue to damage Labor federally as well as in WA, with or without Gillard. Adieu.
for My Say
the full Galaxy table is linked in Williams story above
http://twitter.yfrog.com/5e4j10j
our friends at #newscorpse are playing fast and loose with the information they are providing their leaders however, as the push polling leadership questions, on which they base their latest fantasy about Julia Gillard, are missing from the online article
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/deadline-looms-for-prime-minister-julia-gillard/story-e6freuy9-1226593924698
So emotive terms such as “dump” and “fresh faces” which appear in the questions asked (akin to push-polling in my view) are missing from the online article. Yet they form the basis of the last desperate throw of the dice by the Rudd cronies.
So we now have a delegation to the PM. Well sorry boys, there is no vacancy, there is no spill, you get 52 votes in Caucus to have a spill called, otherwise get behind the leader.
And where are the plotters getting their advice from? Well Rat Richardson himself.
David Horton @watermelon_man
I guess WA Labor should have asked the PM to campaign over there, eh?
BK @ 6
Same here, BK. If I want fiction, I’ll read a book.
Your “Dawn Patrollers” and other internet sites are my source of information.
Keep it up!
frednk
I’m not the one splitting hairs. I’m merely telling you what she said… how it was said… and in what context. Affirming Labor roots is not saying Labor is not progressive (which of course it is).
socrtas
read this
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/the-media-campaign-against-the-government-revealed/
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[Socrates
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 8:13 am | Permalink
Sigh, sorry for the multiple post. Having trouble with iPad and Wifi.]
It is the site, same thing happened to me but my multiple attemtps didn’t get posted.
i beleive the above,
Nicely put, feeney.
no sprocket
i want to know what seats the poll in
i live in a very strong labor seat and i never been polled
end of story
actuly to be honest i dont read bowes gloom and doom
so there he wasting his time putting the stuff there
that does not tell who they rang in what electorate
other wise why bother
[Gecko
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 8:16 am | Permalink
frednk
I’m not the one splitting hairs. I’m merely telling you what she said… how it was said… and in what context. Affirming Labor roots is not saying Labor is not progressive (which of course it is).]
I agree, but as I am trying to articulate, they have lost the message.
The speach pissed over 1/3 of Labors voter, why?
i never read it in all these years
Gecko
I agree you communicated Gillard’s message accurately. My point was that it was the wrong message to send, and will not win back a single vote.
Frednk
Thanks, that does seem to be the problem.
Bye again.
Socrates
[I think Gillard’s conference speech was a disaster. She alienated at least 1/3 of Labor’s potential vote…]
Bit of a stretch. I doubt any ‘potential’ Labor voters tuned into to her AWU speech Socrates…. those that did would have more likely been ‘actual’ Labor voters keen to hear exactly what she said.
With fear that I will restart the senseless Gillard/Rudd think I post this link”
vexnews @vexnews
Voters turn off Rudd option, according to Galaxy poll #auspol pic.twitter.com/b11D7tYA9e
Gecko
OM made sure the negative of that speech was heard. Its what they are doing.
Its not business as usual with OM campaigning for LNP
why has galaxy not asked any questions about the blunders from the opposition
Frednk
Just quickly, in my time as a Labor party member, most of my friends, I.e. about 1/3 of the members of branches I was in, had zero interest in unions. They were academics and professionals, and no union did anything for hem in their work conditions. So the progressive, social democrat and moderate policies were the reasons they voted Labor, in spite of the union links. Most, like me, have since left the party. Labor is throwing their votes away. Professionals in Australia now easily outnumber manufacturing workers. Yet Labor massively over-focuses on the latter, then wonders why it’s voter base is shrinking. Must go.
Gecko
Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink
[Socrates
I think Gillard’s conference speech was a disaster. She alienated at least 1/3 of Labor’s potential vote…
Bit of a stretch. I doubt any ‘potential’ Labor voters tuned into to her AWU speech Socrates…. those that did would have more likely been ‘actual’ Labor voters keen to hear exactly what she said.]
Gecko I would bet that the votes she has lost are in the younger group. That is the group that is the key to winning government, not a bunch of old white people, most are rusted on somewhere.
My Say
No need apologise… good to see you back.
Meguire Bob – you are denying reality.