The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.
Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.
Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
Essential picked up a slight trend to Labor. Has Newspoll? I hear so! Oh dear.
2311
Henry
[Garrett doing well actually.]
Friend had Garrett as his minister for a while. Said he was always polite and quietly spoken, gave everybody a fair hearing, asked intelligent questions, and understood the importance of proper process. Generally well regarded by those he worked with.
Chris Kenny says he is talking to Stan (“the man”) Grant about newspoll at 11 so it should be imminent or they will be just chewing the fat.
Hmmm, if #Newspoll is looking better for PM & the Govt, then why it is not out tonight like usual. Maybe it needs to be re-jigged
BW
Yep
[AUSTRALIA’s selection crisis took an extraordinary twist tonight with Shane Watson quitting the tour to be with his pregnant wife in the wake of his sacking for the third Test. ]
If it is 52:48, is the Ruddstoration dead parrot still revivable? Perhaps an appropriate time to offer the olive branch to Rudd.
MOE is 50-50 too!
Oh lordy!
Caucus meets tomorrow morning. A very bad Newspoll tonight (ie, 45 or below) would produce some very bad chemistry tomorrow. So if it really is 48, that is quite important.
zoomster
“Before you replace something, you have to have something to replace it with, which is what Gonski was all about.”
They have had 6 years to stop the bleeding from public to private. In that time, there must have been 20 statemeents that not one private school would lose $1.
It was profligate in the GFC money allocation. It’s the same with Gonski. Every speech; every discussion. Not $1 less to the rich private schools.
Just another area of abject failure on behalf of equity, and the proper use of public funds.
I hope it is 52/48 if only to shut that pinstriped impostor Harcher up!
Mind yew Lee Furlong is a very good sort.
[Their parents are often working class and the kids seem to get a good education. And it costs less to the taxpayer than sending them to a public school.
I’m a Dawkinsian atheist and I don’t have a problem with Catholic school funding as long as the curriculum is OK and I gather there are standards for that.]
I went to a catholic school (middle class) and consider I got a good education too. The mostly lay teachers were not fundamentalist and focused on learning. So even though I am an atheist now I have no objection to government funding of MOST catholic schools. However the qualifier is there because I know there are some elite catholic schools that are as wealthy as any in the land, and do not need more government largesse at all. When I lived in Brisbane two that came to mind were Gregory Terrace and Nudgee,College, both very wealthy. There are a few more like that in Sydney and Melbourne too.
No, no!
If Newspoll is 52-48 – and is it? the headline reads
“Gillard given temporary reprieve while staring at the abyss”
or
“Coalition still at smashing lead levels over government. Questions still about Gillard’s leadership bubble to the surface within Labor”
or
“Victoria provides on ray of sunshine while rest of country marks Gillard government down. Coalition still with overwhelming lead.”
And a dozen more like it………….
Why do some of you lot obsess over a single Newspoll?
It’s just one poll amongst many and one poll means next to nothing.
Pollytrend or BludgerTrend are your friend.
One friggin Newspoll isn’t.
Apparently #Newspoll shows 52-48 & PM is a head of Abbott. But Rupert wants to have a little “chat” with #Newspoll before it’s published
Maybe News will hold until after the PM gets the chop tomorrow 😉
shellbell,
Political prick-teasers the lot of them.
@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+3) L/NP 52 (-3) #auspol
Ghost
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+3) L/NP 52 (-3) #auspol
From a Sky News reporter:
Laura Jayes @ljayes
Primary ALP 34 (up 3) LNP 44 (down 3) 2PP 52-48 Preferred PM: Gillard 42 (up 6) Abbott 38 (down 2) #newspoll @SkyNewsAust
Followed by B W and 23 others
52-48 will be being shredded as we speak
[@SkyNewsAust: via @ljayes: Primary ALP 34 (up 3) LNP 44 (down 3)
2PP 52-48
Preferred PM: Gillard 42 (up 6) Abbott 38 (down 2)
#newspoll]
Primary ALP 34 (up 3) LNP 44 (down 3) 2PP 52-48 Preferred PM: Gillard 42 (up 6) Abbott 38 (down 2) #newspoll – NO NO western sydney bounce
Wow 52-48, that is certainly a huge surprise!
My difficulty with the idea of vetting teachers BEFORE they go into schools is that it does nothing to solve the problem at the other end – the quality of students who are entering teaching courses.
It’s also muddied by the fact that I do know many excellent teachers who got poor university entrance scores.
One of the first I met in this category claimed it was what made her such an effective teacher – she understood why students had difficulties better than someone who found learning easy.
I have to say, on that, that one of the things that improved my teaching was one on one sessions with struggling students – it made me realise how much of my teaching was based on the assumption that students understood immediately what I was trying to get across, and how much I had to break things down in order to make sure I got my message across.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 42 (+6) Abbott 38 (-2) #auspol
2 mins GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 34 (+3) L/NP 44 (-3) #auspol
Expand
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+3) L/NP 52 (-3) #auspol
[It’s just one poll amongst many and one poll means next to nothing.]
I just explained why this poll is important. Like it or not, we live in an era where politics is driven by short-term reactions to polls. Ask Ted Baillieu.
Rossmore
[If it is 52:48, is the Ruddstoration dead parrot still revivable? Perhaps an appropriate time to offer the olive branch to Rudd.]
I have reached a stage when I do not care who leads Labor. I just wish they would grow-up and get their act together.
Being a pessimist (never disappointed or surprised) I assume that if the polls show ALP LOSING by only 15 seats or so it means everything is rosy, no need for change.
I would prefer bad polling now because the ALP, like the Catholic Church, never seems to see that old systems are killing them, until its too late. It seems to be a common human failing.
Hey Mickey here is your summary – we need to improve our batting, bowling and fielding. The rest is fine though.
That said, what else could Patto do – score a century as well? Bit silly really.
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
..
One friggin Newspoll isn’t.]
They have got themselves worked up into a sweet over the last one.
If it is Newspoll 52/48 Gillard’s camp will be mightily relieved. Months of bad polls mean nothing but one tolerably fair poll practically assures Labor of victory.
52:48 – my take – 457s, western sydney trip., NBN., Victoria state politics, QLD privatisation agenda. And the great Australian public starting to focus on the policies of the respective parties.
New thread.
that’ll be the narrowing….cant wait for
…”the opposition still has an election winning lead” codicil on every news report
confessions@2327
Well I don’t remember Rosemary Follett but the other 2 were hardly stars, particularly Carnell.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (+3) L/NP 52 (-3) #auspol]
Bet we don’t hear about this on the MSM any time soon.
Psephos
[I just explained why this poll is important. Like it or not, we live in an era where politics is driven by short-term reactions to polls. Ask Ted Baillieu.]
Are you saying Caucus is as psephologically ignorant as the general population?
Headline “ABBOTT’S COLLECTION OF BLUE TIES UNDER THREAT”
swamprat
Tucked away in the outer reaches of Katoomba we discovered an overgrown park built by, I think, the girl guides or the boy scouts to celebrate the royal visit to Katoomba in 1954. I couldn’t find a reference. I am not even sure they have scouts or guides any more. It was like a small cul-de-sac of history which is now a bit of an embarrassment but no-one seems quite game enough to knock it over and build a block of holiday flats on it.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/blue_mountains_library_-_local_studies/4519429919/
Ha that is a classic newspoll.
The liberal apologists are just scratching their heads and saying what the?
I will look forward to listening to Jones and Hadley tomorrow.
McTernan maybe a genius after all?
As I have been saying all week, Ted Baileu debacle, CamNewman on the nose and the PM kicking goals in Western Sydney.
And people getting pissed off with the OldMedia regime change antics.
Mod Lib 2424 – a pleasant surprise?
Considering the mess NSW labor is in it is a pretty good result.
What, don’t tell me!
Labor is moving into the spot it was not so long ago, and now still 6 months out from the poll there is just the MOE between it and a winning lead.
Just can’t be so. What, up 3 points and Tony has fallen behind?
It just can’t be so.
The polls are lying!
All those acres of paper which confidently predicted “she’ll be gorn” by Friday.
Just how are they going to play this? No wonder it is taking ages to come out. It just doesn’t fit.
ABC is still making a fool of itself on lateline.
Here’s Shanahan’s leader on NewsPoll.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/latest-newspoll-reveals-signs-of-hope-for-labor/story-fn59niix-1226595097628
This Newspoll result will delight Tony Abbott.
It means he almost certainly gets to face Julia Gillard at the election.
Rossmore:
I am in the interesting position of enjoying a good poll for the ALP as it brings my hope of a moderate LNP Prime Minister ever close, while I can enjoy a good poll for the LNP as that is how I have historically voted.
Kewl, eh? 😉
Late Line has just been cut off at the legs by the latest NewsPo;; as they are on ar.
Hilarious!
[Are you saying Caucus is as psephologically ignorant as the general population?]
Sadly yes.
Incidentally, this should be an object lesson for those who keep trying to tell us that Newspoll is rigged. A bad Newspoll tonight would have been extremely dangerous for Gillard. If ever it suited News Ltd to produce a bad Newspoll, tonight would have been the time.