Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A new Galaxy poll says pretty much what every federal poll recently has been saying.

The News Limited tabloids bring a Galaxy poll, conducted between Tuesday to Thursday from 1000 respondents, which has the Coalition’s leading 55-45 from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. On the question of the Labor leadership, 32% believed the party should stick with Julia Gillard, 26% believed she should be replaced with Kevin Rudd, and 33% opted for “a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet”. Worryingly for the goverment, 59% nominated that the Coalition “would be ready” to govern against 36% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (11/3): Essential Research provides further evidence that Labor’s slump has bottomed out and perhaps even reversed slightly. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 34% with both the Coalition and the Greens down a point, to 48% and 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead back to 55-45 after two weeks at 56-44. Monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard essentially unchanged after copping a hit last month, her approval steady at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 37% and down two to 51%. Abbott has pulled level on preferred prime minister, which is at 39-39, after trailing 39-37 last time.

Essential has also performed one of its occasional experiments where it divides its sample in two and asks each differently worded questions, in this case relating to immigration. The money finding here is that 38% deem boat arrivals most important from a list of issues against 20% who nominate 457 visa, but this changes to 33% and 31% if the numbers involved (15,000 boat arrivals and 150,000 457 visas) are provided. Further questions find 22% broadly in favour of privatisation and 58% broadly against, with respondents also given a list of services and asked which should be run by the government and which privately. The evenly divided “Telecommunications (including broadband services)” was the only one for which being run by the government wasn’t heavily favoured.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,472 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. @senthorun: Oh, can we start giving MPs exams before elections too? We could make the scores public to help inform our vote. #qanda

  2. Swaprat

    BW is slightly incorrect. The Nationals are not “agrarian socialist” but “rural socialists”.

    They have whinged as long as I can remember, have been over represented in parliament in terms of the size of their overall vote, quite often represent the most backward and reactionary views in society and know how to squeeze dollars for the cause of the country areas – 100 kms of sealed roads for three farmers to use once a day.

    Goodness know how much money has been wasted looking after this special group.

    Among some of the most protected an cosseted voters in the country.

  3. This is the real failure of the govt on school education, right here:

    Senator Penny Wright
    Total govt funding (Cth & State) to independent schools increased by 82% btwn 02-09, cf 64% for Cath schools & 48% for govt schools. #QandA

  4. Guess Newspoll are busily/frantically checking and re-checking those numbers.
    Shannas circling furiously demanding a re-count.

  5. Boerwar

    […. raise the masses on slates, ]

    Ah memories.

    In Qld we had to use slates in first two years of primary school (1950’s). I can still smell the wet rotting sponges.

    In grade three we had ink and pens with dip nibs. Oh the mess evreywhere and ceilings covered with wet blotting paper.

    We also burnt ‘guys’ on Guy Fawkes night (even us Catholics …best night of the year) !!!

  6. @jv/2355

    I agree with Religious schooling funding, it’s pathetic.

    But however, it does not make it any better to sell the schools which I think is even worse.

  7. [Total govt funding (Cth & State) to independent schools increased by 82% btwn 02-09, cf 64% for Cath schools & 48% for govt schools.]

    Is that per student, or has there been a disproportionate increase in numbers in independent and Catholic schools?

  8. [Total govt funding (Cth & State) to independent schools increased by 82% btwn 02-09, cf 64% for Cath schools & 48% for govt schools. #QandA]

    How to choose your statistics carefully…
    What were the dollars before/after these increases?

  9. rummel,

    You can insist on opting out of religious indoctrination. Try getting them to do multi-religious INFORMATION. That is really worthwhile: get the kids to understand what makes religion tick for some people.

  10. guytaur

    Well, maybe. Or for some of the longest and most boring speeches ever made and lacking the fortitude to see his pet scheme put into practice.

    I am not anti-Rudd just hugely disappointed by the man.

    I would love him to come back and show us how to do it.

    Why did he spit the dummy when FM? He lost me there.

  11. tricot

    I was just saying what positive things history will remember Mr Rudd for.

    It will also remember him for being first PM dumped first term and the reasons for that.

  12. I know lots of kids who go to Catholic schools (obviously not my own 👿 ).

    Their parents are often working class and the kids seem to get a good education. And it costs less to the taxpayer than sending them to a public school.

    I’m a Dawkinsian atheist and I don’t have a problem with Catholic school funding as long as the curriculum is OK and I gather there are standards for that.

  13. What will Rudd be remembered for? A fair question.

    He will be remembered as a man who came to power with a strong mandate and a lot of goodwill, and who did several very important things: scrapping WorkChoices, the apology, signing Kyoto, the strong and correct response to the GFC, trying to pass the CPRS. He will also be remembered as a man who in less than two years squandered all that goodwill and put all those achievements at risk, to the point where his Caucus, almost unanimously, deposed him. He brought this about by his arrogant, capricious, erratic and incompetent behavior, particularly in the way he ran his office, and in the appalling way he treated colleagues, staff, public servants and anyone else who got in his way. Then when he was given a chance to redeem hiself as Foreign Minister, he did it all again. He will be remembered as one of the most puzzling and (from a Labor point of view) tragic figures in Australian political history.

  14. j.v./diog

    my understanding (reinforced by comments on Q&A) is that this is because schools are still basically working under the Howard formula.

    Before you replace something, you have to have something to replace it with, which is what Gonski was all about.

  15. TLBD

    [You can insist on opting out of religious indoctrination. Try getting them to do multi-religious INFORMATION. That is really worthwhile: get the kids to understand what makes religion tick for some people.]

    That’s right, it’s opt out. though you have to know about it first and then not assume that if your kid is marked as no religion that it means no religion.

  16. Very odd. PvO deleting his Newspoll tweets. Laura Tingle tweeting speculation ALP getting improved results in latest poll. What is going on. Where is James J, Ghost to put us out of our misery.

  17. swamprat

    Blotters on the ceiling. How primitive. We constructed Heath Robinson darts using the nibs, matches, lacka bands, icypole sticks and tail feathers. Dipped in ink these made potent weapons, leading to spotty woadish complexions on some of the lads.

  18. William. Was your comment at end of post addressed to me?

    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 12:50 am | PERMALINK
    All silly little slights aside.

    A promo appeared, which may have been in advance of the said wasted hour. Unfortunately glimpsed.

    My friend and I, in all sincerity, were shocked, momentary as it was, at Abbott’s visage, phoniness and stage make up.

    A dreadful caricature of a third rate actor.

    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 1:10 am | PERMALINK
    My God. All this endless media carry on about Labor leaders.

    For what? The media don’t get the real deal.

    The flamboyantly understated immaculately presented Malcolm Turnbull. A study in contrasts.

    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 3:32 am | PERMALINK
    Well well, I was only talking to him yesterday.. but didn’t talk politics though…which you might think odd.

    He must have caught Rudd germs off you.

  19. Tingle should have known better. Her standards are slipping, which presumably is expected given that tosser Stutchbury is her editor now.

  20. Psephos@2371

    A good call and a fair one in just one para.

    I think on his grave stone they should write “So much promise to disappoint so many”

  21. 2237
    [Faark me. Housing costs were totally over the top in the mid to late 2000′s due to things like the LNG plant. From all reports it has got waaay worse since then.]

    House prices and rents are a MAJOR problem up here. Waaay over the top. Can’t get a room in a shared house for under about $200/w, and it just goes up quickly from there.

    And it is only getting worse.

    Great if you already own property, but for the rest of the population it is a huge problem.

  22. [2380
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK

    You teach your kids about religion. I was taught: make up your own mind.]

    Lol no. My wife was trying to explain to a four year old why he could not go to scripture 🙂 it was funny as. In he end chocolate won over God.

  23. Off topic, I’m looking forward to the 200 or so former player opinions on the Test cricket situation we’re going to get now. As a former & occasional current player (er, not at test level) I suspect the fault rests with the coach, the current captain and an overzealous admin. I thought we got rid of all the ‘coaching’ over-analysis with Buchanan. Too many official coaches. No thanks. As they say in Yorkshire, “Just get on wit’ game!”

    Pretty simple: If you’re good enough, you’re picked. Worked in my heyday. (No wuzzie helmets either)

  24. Alannah on Q&A next week?

    Now spin me the line that there is no agenda.

    This woman is a minor celebrity in Perth who got the railway built.

    Her one 5 minutes of Oz-wide fame came from bagging the PM in favour of Rudd.

    Oh the limelight!

  25. If it gets to campaign time and its six weeks before the election and Rudd hasnt challenged/been coopted/whatever, wouldn’t be pull the pin and not run? He can only be hanging in there in case he gets his old job back and if that doesnt happen, why stand again?

  26. Boerwar

    [Blotters on the ceiling. How primitive.]

    I grew up in Charleville in western Queensland we were, undoubtedly, the last outpost of the Empire and certainly primitive.

    We still had uniformed ‘black trackers’ on the police force.

    Princess Alexandra visited and the whole town was out in a way that never happens now. The bunting, school holidays, town gatherings, mayoral speeches etc.

    They even brought a Rolls Royce from Brisbane on the train. The only time I assume a RR was ever in Charleville.

  27. So to be a teacher you numeracy has to be in the top 30%. I suspect such people would be able to factor in salary when it comes to career choice.

    If you want top people pay top money. OH and support them.

    Perhaps parties should expect at least an average IQ of there candidates.

  28. rummel,

    So, your kids … ?

    By the way, I was christened, Lutheran. I have chosen to forego that particular brand of austerity. Checking out hedonism …

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