Essential Research suggests Labor’s recent slump may not have bottomed out yet, with their primary vote down two to 32% and the Coalition steady on 49%. With the Greens up a point to 10%, two-party preferred nonetheless remains steady on 56-44. Further questions relate mostly to the Greens, whose performance in the federal parliament is rated good by 17% and poor by 47%; whose politics are related too extreme by 52% and representative of the views of many by 24%; and whose leader Christine Milne is approved of by 22% (up two since November) and disapproved of by 29% (down four), with 48% (up one) still not knowing. The end of the formal agreement between Labor and the Greens is rated good for the Greens by 33% and bad for them by 26%, while the respective numbers for Labor are 26% and 40%. The poll also gauges firmness of vote, which I tend not to find too illuminating, and has 29% believing the mining tax should be amended to raise more money and 21% believing it should be maintained as is, with only 28% favouring its abolition.
We’ve also had ReachTEL striking while the iron is hot on behalf of the Fairfax papers in western Sydney, with automated phone polls of between 617 and 662 respondents conducted on Thursday in four of the area’s traditionally strong Labor seats. It finds the Liberals with a crushing 63-37 lead in Laurie Ferguson’s seat of Werriwa, a 62-38 lead in Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon, a 54-46 lead in Ed Husic’s seat of Chifley, and a 54-46 lead in Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland. The respective Labor margins in the four seats are 6.8%, 7.8%, 12.3% and 12.2%. Further questions on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd were leader get the usual response. Less usual is the strength of Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which are net positive in two of the four seats, and the very weak results for the Greens, who score between 2.6% and 3.6% compared with 8.1% and 8.4% at the election.
ReachTEL has also conducted a poll of 693 respondents in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley for Andrew Bolt’s Channel Ten program The Bolt Report. This has Swan trailing his LNP opponent 54-46, almost perfectly replicating the result of another poll ReachTEL conducted for United Voice in January. As usual, it finds things would turn around if Kevin Rudd was Labor leader.
dave@5283
Dave, I was seriously concerned about your apparent cognitive impairment. You see quite smart on some topics but you do seem to have a kind of mental block on a particular issue.
I said I support the ALP. ’nuff said.
Leaders, ministers and back benchers come and go. The party remains.
dave
[Thats how it operates.]
When will the turkeys understand?
dave
So much gloss. The caucus knew nothing in June 2010 until it happened. The right faction bosses (& 1 left) told Rudd, and he didn’t take it to a vote, because he knows the level of control. Same numbers; same bosses in February 2012.
It isn’t an open democracy, it’s a simple ruthless numbers thing. That’s why Tanner & Falkner said goodbye. The numbers are now permanently in favour of those AWU/SDA/HSU controler of everthing freaks, comprising pragmatic idiots. We keep seeing their strategy; the latest being unjustified 457 xenophobia.
bemused
Your Leader IS PMJG no other. This is not changing according to “Insiders” and “Outsiders” experts.
Continuing leadership speculation helps Tony Abbott. No one else. Be in no doubt of this.
Your continued months of baseless speculation is being disloyal to the Leader selected by Caucus to lead into the next election.
Be loyal to the leader elected by Caucus as a loyal Labor Member should.
….. all the CONservative Seethers have been told to get back over the parapet after the Chaos In Victoria …… wantonly assisted by the soggy ruddsters. That means you, be Mused, you Jerkster.
‘We are not fooled we know you are out to destroy Labor.’
You bloody idiot.
We out to destroy Abbott numbnuts.
Get a grip.
If you’re happy with the job the ALP are doing to that end then you may well be a certifiable simpleton.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/03/04/essential-research-56-44-to-coalition-9/?comment_page=94/#comment-1569501
How DID alias know about The Australian Matheson article before it was published?
JV
Factions chose PMJG. Factions not changing. Paul Howes has made this crystal clear.
Labor has PMJG as leader for the upcoming election.
This is fact and we all know its fact. No more fantasy leadership.
Ifyou must have it try the LNP for a change. After all Abbott on one vote after cheating is far more precarious.
[ bemused
Posted Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 8:45 pm | Permalink
I said I support the ALP. ’nuff said.
Leaders, ministers and back benchers come and go. The party remains.]
You don’t support the party though – thats the point.
The caucus calls the shots when selecting the Leader or replacing one.
Caucus voted on replacing rudd, then confirmed that last year, by a record margin.
You don’t support the leader or the caucus decision.
Rosemour
When you come with facts of Caucus doing something different to last February then you will have a case.
Now all this needless months of speculation does is aid Abbott in its small way.
It certainly does nothing to aid Labor.
Try dealing with facts not fantasy
‘Be loyal to the leader elected by Caucus as a loyal Labor Member should.’
Oh, you mean like I was loyal to the leader elected by the caucus when that leader was Rudd?
So if the caucus decides to rerun Rudd, you’ll be loyal?
Got it.
That’s all I wanted to know.
[ jaundiced view
Posted Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 8:48 pm | Permalink
dave
So much gloss. The caucus knew nothing in June 2010 until it happened ]
Hang on. There was a leadership spill and Gillard stood unopposed and the Caucus voted on it and they didn’t know.
You are trying to spin gloss not me.
guytaur.
The fact is Labor is getting slaughtered.
I’m trying to deal with it.
gayttaur
These freaks never change their minds on the leader if they think it will assist them personally? I give you 2010. Gillard deserted her left faction for the gig, and even got religion, or support for it. She wasn’t one of them. We should check her neck.
The fact that we say things like “Paul Howes made this crystal clear” probably removes the need for discussion.
Rosemour
If I was a Labor member then yes of course. The fact that I a non member can see this disuntiy being talked up aids Tony Abbot and not Labor should make loyal labor members think what they are in fact doing.
Leave the fantasy leadership alone it does nothing to aid Labor.
@Rosemour or Less/5313
@jaundiced view/5314
I don’t give a shit what is happening, I am supporting Polices not bullshit.
You sad lot of people should do the same.
As the rest of you.
I’m off the blog because it’s really become a Coalition site.
Have just come home and though I woulh have a look at PB, see it is the same as usual.
I don’t frequent the RW blogs but wonder if they have bloggers who supported Malcolm Turnbull and keep going on about their hero? Just Wondering :devil:
Off to Twitter I go
dave
Another gloss. I note you do not dispute the detail I inserted?
ruawake@5307
Quite –
How do he know this?
Its not the sort of information that is readily available to people.
I find it interesting that –
– He ‘forecast’ that story well before the paper issued last night.
– He made at least 4 posts some of them expanding on those stories after the paper issued.
– He added your own exaggerated ‘editorial comment’ in some of those posts.
Where did knowledge of this all come from. How does a blogger know this.
How did he know the OO had been ‘sniffing’ around for sometime and had saved the article up for the right time?
[How DID alias know about The Australian Matheson article before it was published?]
An excellent question, ru!
dave@5309
Dave, have you stopped beating your wife?
Now come on, I want a yes or no answer on that.
I have just given you an example of your type of logic and style.
JV
Like it or not facts are facts. PMJG is leader if you want fantasy trying convincing us why Jesus would do better than PMJG he has as much chance as Rudd.
dave
There was no caucus vote in 2010. That’s the point.
“@ABCNews24: Polls have closed in Western Australia. We cross to election analyst @AntonyGreenABC now. http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi #WAVotes”
[How does a blogger know this.]
William is the blogger.
alias is just a blog commenter.
jaundiced view@5319
I note –
1) you don’t support Labor and are a radical green.
2) you have taken no notice that rudd was elected by the caucus, and was replaced by gillard again on votes by the caucus in terms of the party’s normal procedures.
bemused
Needless leadership speculation must be a labor rat in the house.
How did alias know? He works at The OZ? Or at news ltd at least. Do to think an organisation with their record would be above having peoplle monitoring and stirring on blogs like this?
@sspencer_63: With Bob Hawke. Press Gallery reunion marking the 30th anniversary of Hawke’s election. http://t.co/FXH4zLkwpF
jaundiced view@5324
There was a leadership spill which was unopposed, which gillard won – in terms of the party’s normal rules.
rudd challenged in 2012 and was thrashed by a record margin which confirm the previous leadership spill.
guytaur
I’m disputing none of the facts. Yes JGPM is JGPM. Discussion of alternative leadership is not fantasy, it is occurring at all levels of the party, now, as we blog. Doesn’t mean anything will change, but it is real and dangerous, using that latter term in its poetic sense.
Even by recent standards of tediosity and stupidity, this exchange is utterly tedious and stupid.
In other news, I have finished my JU 87R (the Stuka dive bomber). It’s a thing of beauty, even though the decals are a bit crooked (I hate decals). I’ll post a photo if anyone can tear themselves away from Ruddomancy long enough to express an interest. 🙂
JV
Nope you are wrong. Not happening. None of the key players needed for such a change are talking so its all fantasy in your head
dave
You aren’t saying anything new. Yes, same numbers in 2012 as were given to Rudd by the bosses without a vote in 2010. Same bosses, same imprisoned caucus members, if they want a career.
Psephos
Hereby expressing interest in photo. Balsa and paper or plastic?
JV
As I have said to others. Present new facts or else shutup on this subject its boring in the extreme.
Psephos
I’m interested. My old dad is a model plane aficionado. Mainly Spitfires.
fractious re Alf G and Speight’s writing, he is in illustrious company.
Archie Bunker in the US a take off, was equally as good but in the US setting.
I would hazard a guess that 30% of the electorate in Oz fit neatly into the stereotype.
We have either come a long way or made nil progress at all.
[ bemused
Posted Saturday, March 9, 2013 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
Dave, have you stopped beating your wife?
Now come on, I want a yes or no answer on that.
I have just given you an example of your type of logic and style.]
Here is a far better example –
I will support Labor, its leader, the caucus, the party’s candidates and workers as they prepare for the election and when they face that election.
A yes or no answer please.
guytaur
I didn’t start it. I’m presenting the boring actual facts to contradict the new exciting revised ones, that so often pop up on PB on behalf of the beloved, albeit near-dead, party.
The jeering and sniveling of the Howard ‘Gim me’ discontent reigns.
abc 24 live from Vatican for election.
[Even by recent standards of tediosity and stupidity, this exchange is utterly tedious and stupid.]
Indeed.
Thank heavens there’s an election tonight.
jaundiced view@5335
You are a radical green, as distinct from being a green.
You are not saying anything new, nor would you say or do anything to help support Labor in any way.
Next!
jv
I do not care you are participating and rehashing. If you are out to destroy Labor then fine. Just do not pretend you are not with this fantasy leadership speculation.
Fact is its not happening. PMJG will lead Labor in the election and there are no facts to contradict that.
So no more fantasy Ruddstoration save us all the boredom
ABC Elections @ABCElections
Counting is underway in WA. Results will start trickling through shortly. If you’d like an update on your electorate, tweet us. #wavotes
[The jeering and sniveling of the Howard ‘Gimme’ discontent reigns.]
Well why do something about a situation when the government provides such a convenient scapegoat? Why convince the general public with arguments when you can get angry and blame someone else?
I don’t think an Abbott government will survive the sense of entitlement you talk about.
Sorry Dave, I didn’t realise this was a Labor blog. Lefties not welcome?
[The jeering and sniveling of the Howard ‘Gimme’ discontent reigns.]
Well why do something about a situation when the government provides such a convenient scapegoat? Why convince the general public with arguments when you can get angry and blame someone else?
I don’t think an Abbott government will survive the sense of entitlement you talk about.