Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Essential Research’s primary vote numbers suggest the worst isn’t over for federal Labor, while ReachTEL rolls out the welcome mat for Julia Gillard in western Sydney.

Essential Research suggests Labor’s recent slump may not have bottomed out yet, with their primary vote down two to 32% and the Coalition steady on 49%. With the Greens up a point to 10%, two-party preferred nonetheless remains steady on 56-44. Further questions relate mostly to the Greens, whose performance in the federal parliament is rated good by 17% and poor by 47%; whose politics are related too extreme by 52% and representative of the views of many by 24%; and whose leader Christine Milne is approved of by 22% (up two since November) and disapproved of by 29% (down four), with 48% (up one) still not knowing. The end of the formal agreement between Labor and the Greens is rated good for the Greens by 33% and bad for them by 26%, while the respective numbers for Labor are 26% and 40%. The poll also gauges firmness of vote, which I tend not to find too illuminating, and has 29% believing the mining tax should be amended to raise more money and 21% believing it should be maintained as is, with only 28% favouring its abolition.

We’ve also had ReachTEL striking while the iron is hot on behalf of the Fairfax papers in western Sydney, with automated phone polls of between 617 and 662 respondents conducted on Thursday in four of the area’s traditionally strong Labor seats. It finds the Liberals with a crushing 63-37 lead in Laurie Ferguson’s seat of Werriwa, a 62-38 lead in Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon, a 54-46 lead in Ed Husic’s seat of Chifley, and a 54-46 lead in Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland. The respective Labor margins in the four seats are 6.8%, 7.8%, 12.3% and 12.2%. Further questions on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd were leader get the usual response. Less usual is the strength of Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which are net positive in two of the four seats, and the very weak results for the Greens, who score between 2.6% and 3.6% compared with 8.1% and 8.4% at the election.

ReachTEL has also conducted a poll of 693 respondents in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley for Andrew Bolt’s Channel Ten program The Bolt Report. This has Swan trailing his LNP opponent 54-46, almost perfectly replicating the result of another poll ReachTEL conducted for United Voice in January. As usual, it finds things would turn around if Kevin Rudd was Labor leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,557 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. If my comment goes on the next page I get shunted to the top of the page where I made the comment.

    It’s time … !

  2. [5515


    Even if rudd was reinstalled, the same result would have been for WA.]

    Rudd is completely reviled in WA. If he is reinstated as Federal Leader, Labor will certainly lose their remaining seats here.

  3. Brendan O’Connor on Insiders … wow!

    What a performance!

    I just emailed him this via his official ALP webpage:

    Dear Mr O’Connor,

    Congratulations on your powerful performance on Insiders today (10 March 2013).

    You articulated a sound policy position with clarity and conviction.

    Please get on programs like Q&A and other media outlets, because we need spokespeople who can sell our good policies with sincerity and clear language.

    Thanks again.

    Yours sincerely …

  4. Is this the “last days ” of Julia’s regime
    I suspect that this week we might see Gillard depart…who to replace her ??

    Well Shorten probably…dull but effective and male.(and the GGs son-in-law) things might improve and in the wake of the Victorian events a bit easier to sell
    anything might be a change for the better …as far as the polls are concerned
    But Julia is dead in the water and sinking fast

    Oddly to think of it now…but on the day she replaced Rudd I did think she would be a real champion. I had gone on that visit a sick friend in Ballarat and we both watched the TV events unfold…he a former MHR and we both shared the view that she’d do OK…..I was ignoring all the evidence of the past re women leaders et al

    Sorry Ladies …but the Glass ceiling is still there.
    Mary Delahunty …a former Vic Minister in Labor Govts… has a good think pieece in The Age today on the different language used re Bailleau/Naptine to the Rudd /Gillard matter
    She claims that the media uses different terms to descibe women leaders…quite true I think

    So Girls .much as we love you all….give up those high-flown aspirations and stick to making the morning tea!

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