Essential Research suggests Labor’s recent slump may not have bottomed out yet, with their primary vote down two to 32% and the Coalition steady on 49%. With the Greens up a point to 10%, two-party preferred nonetheless remains steady on 56-44. Further questions relate mostly to the Greens, whose performance in the federal parliament is rated good by 17% and poor by 47%; whose politics are related too extreme by 52% and representative of the views of many by 24%; and whose leader Christine Milne is approved of by 22% (up two since November) and disapproved of by 29% (down four), with 48% (up one) still not knowing. The end of the formal agreement between Labor and the Greens is rated good for the Greens by 33% and bad for them by 26%, while the respective numbers for Labor are 26% and 40%. The poll also gauges firmness of vote, which I tend not to find too illuminating, and has 29% believing the mining tax should be amended to raise more money and 21% believing it should be maintained as is, with only 28% favouring its abolition.
We’ve also had ReachTEL striking while the iron is hot on behalf of the Fairfax papers in western Sydney, with automated phone polls of between 617 and 662 respondents conducted on Thursday in four of the area’s traditionally strong Labor seats. It finds the Liberals with a crushing 63-37 lead in Laurie Ferguson’s seat of Werriwa, a 62-38 lead in Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon, a 54-46 lead in Ed Husic’s seat of Chifley, and a 54-46 lead in Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland. The respective Labor margins in the four seats are 6.8%, 7.8%, 12.3% and 12.2%. Further questions on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd were leader get the usual response. Less usual is the strength of Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which are net positive in two of the four seats, and the very weak results for the Greens, who score between 2.6% and 3.6% compared with 8.1% and 8.4% at the election.
ReachTEL has also conducted a poll of 693 respondents in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley for Andrew Bolt’s Channel Ten program The Bolt Report. This has Swan trailing his LNP opponent 54-46, almost perfectly replicating the result of another poll ReachTEL conducted for United Voice in January. As usual, it finds things would turn around if Kevin Rudd was Labor leader.
5,557 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”
Liyana you are spot on – this is what is engendering the frustration amongst Labor supporters. Too many own goals.
I know I don’t win too many hearts and minds on PB. But I also notice that there are more now on PB who are prepared to face reality and speak the truth.
Don’t like it? Well I could suggest a wonderful blog where only adulation of Julia is allowed.
[ This is not a bad government, but it is committing suicide. If the ALP loses, then it’s the fault of the party, nobody or nothing else is to blame. ]
Can’t disagree with this one. If the ALP loses, it will be mostly due to internal disunity, and not at all because the opposition is offering a credible alternative.
But you try pointing that to anyone here on PB … and just watch what reaction you get!
[So what exactly is it you think the remaining 10 are “solely responsible” for? Keeping Australia prosperous during the worst recession in living memory, perhaps? Because I’m sure you will find that quite a few others helped out with that one – and they would be mighty pissed at being left off your list.]
Sorry but that is ridiculous. Debates about Rudd aside, virtually none of the individuals listed had anything to do with the development of the GFC beating stimulus package. Most of them wouldn’t know a GCE model if they tripped over one. That is why the disastrous 2010 campaign couldn’t mention the GFC response – because its primary architects were NOT in the new government.
I don’t think it matters what posters here think. Obsessing over the federal leader prevents them from being united and giving a strong alternative Government. That’s what Andrews has done here, and it is giving massive dividends. Federal bashing clearly did not work, they infact seem to have lost ground. I think Confessions was right, coming out against the Carbon price has only created problems for Labor federally and nothing for them at a state level.
I will grant, however, that it may have greater effect in WA. The ABC did a good report on that. Victoria is very pro-federal ALP, its been that way for decades.
Sorry I mistyped. I meant to say that the listed group of individuals was NOT legitimately able to take credit for getting through the GFC.
[ Don’t like it? Well I could suggest a wonderful blog where only adulation of Julia is allowed. ]
You mean the one you were banned from? Yes, it is a very pleasant place.
But some of us still persevere with PB, despite the efforts of you and the other trilobites.
I don’t know the ins and outs of Alannah either accepting or rejecting the leadership, but what she had to say this evening while it might be thought of as “emotional” by Gary Gray was intended to be said by her for maximum effect nationally.
She expounded that she had walked the streets of Armadale, her former electorate, she was told that while the locals would vote for Labor this time, they would not if Gillard was still leader. She then made the even more provocative comment that unless Labor was led by Rudd then Labor was wtte a dead duck in WA.
Now I know a lot of people here think the Rudd-Gillard thing is boring as all hell and want it to go away,but here we have, arguably one of the more admired local Labor leaders basically trashing the PM. She admitted that is was “highly unfair” that the PM be seen in this light (and she said this a couple of times) but she was calling it as she saw it.
Of course, the local ABC guy Geoff Hutchinson was salivating at her words as he made sure she repeated them, knowing they were likely to be “tomorrow’s headlines across the country”.
Make of this as you will friends.
[The PM has hopeless advisers. Who are these people? The party decides to talk about 457 visas and then it is revealed that one of the PM’s advisers probably has one.This is just stupidity. Who is giving the PM such bad advice? You can’t blame the media, the advisers are supposed to handle the media, they are paid to do it, it’s their job. They are failing.]
Which visa McTernan is on isn’t relevant to whether 457 visas are a good policy or whether companies are using them as intended. After all, there must be appropriate uses for the visa or the government should just abolish the whole thing.
Did I link this yesterday? Worth linking again. Tony Fitzgerald:
Yes, no worries. I was just trying to figure out exactly whatJVs list was supposed to be “solely responsible” for.
Could it have been the Carbon tax?
What is the point of the ruddestration on PB? it’s not going to change Rudd’s “will not challenge”.
Could it have been the Carbon tax?
No, they hate that. That was the Greens via the minority agreement (as was the dental scheme).
Their approach was revealed as soon as they installed Gillard. ‘Clear the decks’; everything to pass the ‘Lindsay test”. No progressivism. No leadership – too hard.
[of Alannah either accepting or rejecting the leadership]
Tricot – she wasn’t offered the leadership – the factions wouldn’t allow it
Even if rudd was reinstalled, the same result would have been for WA.
[or we will fly bemused, feeney, JV, MBTW etc out there to help them!]
This is amazing. Show it to any deniers you know:
Too much excitement for one night.
A not pleasing night for Labor supporters in the West but one whose results have been known to be coming for some time.
Not a whitewash as it will be touted by some, but disappointing nonetheless.
Enough to build on by Labor for next time but a first term government gets a vote of confidence. Nothing very new about that.
One is philosophical as one has to be at this point.
The interesting dog fight will be between the two conservative parties.
And, by the way Troy Buswell is loved by his electorate warts and all. Clearly he is just a naughty boy and worthy of huge support by his electorate.
Good strong morals those country folk.
I think we are all agreed on what the skills of the listed group are not. They seem to have talent I union elections and stacking preselections. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to realise that while those things give them control over the Labor party, they don’t help Labor win Federal elections. The lesson in reality is now six months away.
Federal Labor needs to focus Education & Health because that is key to VIC/NSW/SA/QLD.
QLD and VIC are doing their own damage.
It is, and I won’t forget those names, even though history will, very quickly. Except Bill of course. He has destiny. The miserable prick. 🙂
Thanks hairy nose.
I did not follow what happened in detail but she could have made the difference – who knows.
And, yes, I agree, I don’t think the outcome would have been any different if Rudd had been PM.
After the MRRT he was as unwelcome here too.
They’re a funny lot in the West.
Feel free to bag the Feds then go and ask them for half the money to pay for infrastructure projects in the West and then claim credit. Barnett did this to Rudd and Rudd fell for it.
I predict the railway to the airport will still be waiting come the next election.
Troy Buswell reminds me a bit of former NP Qld Minister Russ Hinze. Both were outrageous and larger than life characters who infuriated many. Yet both were also competent ministers and not as stupid as they seem. Ethics was not a strong point of either, but it would be foolish to underestimate them.
Okay but Nicola Roxon on that list? Seriously? You don’t think she’s taken a principled stand in her career?
Yes, If I understand your post correctly, then I agree.
The obsession of people here with Rudd vs Gillard leadershit is driven mostly by morons who can’t see that this whole fiasco plays right into the hands of those who desperately oppose either leader.
But really, WA is a bit of a sideshow federally. For better or worse, the federal election will be played out in NSW.
Here’s something to thannk Gillard and Burke for. A few short-term jobs over more long-term tourism ones, while destroying rare natural heritage. Unforgivable
We probably share a similar view of Shorten, but I don’t think he will ever be PM. He is too compromised by his role in the coup, and too easily targeted by Libs for his union links. He might be LOTO for some time.
No, certainly not as A-G. Unmemorable toady of the US.
[Feel free to bag the Feds then go and ask them for half the money to pay for infrastructure projects in the West and then claim credit. Barnett did this to Rudd and Rudd fell for it.]
You are right of course. I have also posted here previously how little Howard did for WA while he was PM. If only Labor in WA had political leaders skilled enough to point this out, they might start getting better election results. Silly me, keep electing factional hacks instead.
Yes. Not so much union links (I have those myself 🙂 ) but his disraceful behaviour running the AWU while mates with Pratt aginst the printers. The details are sickening.
[Troy Buswell reminds me a bit of former NP Qld Minister Russ Hinze. Both were outrageous and larger than life characters who infuriated many. Yet both were also competent ministers]
thats where you and I part company. Buswell is actually a pretty average Minister. I’ve never understood why his reputation precedes him. If you look up his achievements a postage stamp would be quite sufficient
Yeah! And I hear she smokes and drinks like a demon in her private life! What a hypocrite!
No, certainly not as A-G. Unmemorable toady of the US.]
Well if you’re just going to pick the things you can whinge about, and ignore other achievements, then I don’t think any politician or party will ever meet your standards.
Looks like you’ll have to run for office yourself.
There is only one poll that matters.If Australians vote for that Abbott thnig, and the whole box aand dice and everything. What a country of imbeciles are we. I shake my head.Labor has to fight back with the same rules.Go for the pricks, head on.No prisoners
Regarding Buswell I am only going on what I have heard (I live in SA). People in transport planning I know who have worked with him regard him as an efficient decision maker. But you may well be right – my knowledge is second hand.
[Silly me, keep electing factional hacks instead.]
Strangely Soc I feel that McGowan may be a keeper. His concession speech was actually full of Labor principles – others have criticised it for its length but I enjoyed it. I felt he said things that Federal Labor should be saying. He plainly said what Labor stands for.
Is there a link to MacTiernan’s comments?
Sorry I should have been less generic in my reference to union links. Some unions do a lot of good work. Unfortunately some have degenerated into little more than launch pads for political careerists. I put Shorten in the latter group.
Sorry Fess don’t know where they were made – just seen the references to them here.
Good night – lets try and keep the faith
I didn’t hear his speech but that is good news about McGowan. Still, in other respects Labor must get better quality people into parliament. We are not blessed with a group of good communicators in the current crop, quite apart from other weaknesses.
[I put Shorten in the latter group.]
I consult my belly-fluff at times too. Care to say why you so opine?
Yes, exactly. And the members of the largest r/wing unions affiliated with the party have these people imposed on them from above by unelected feifdoms. Most never hold a tool, bedpan, or shop fitting. Paul Howes, labourer made good. Bill Shorten, shearer. Don Farrell, polite assistant in shops. 🙂
Sorry Don worked as a shop assistant while doing his law degree. Battler.
Bill Shorten, Australian working class hero. Calluses everywhere. A model for Jimmy Barnes”
“was educated at Xavier College and Monash University, where he graduated in arts and law. During his time at Monash, Shorten was a founding member of Young Labor Network, a right wing Labor youth caucus. He also holds an MBA from the Melbourne Business School, an unusual qualification for a trade union official.
Shorten began working in the labour movement while still a student, working part-time for federal Labor Minister Gareth Evans and later Neil Pope, a minister in the Labor state government of John Cain. After graduating he worked for 18 months as a lawyer for the firm of Maurice Blackburn Cashman, a firm which generates a large portion of its income representing trade unions.
Paul Howes, knockabout bloke who can do anything. Hard years etched on his face and psyche:
“At the age of 17 he became a Research Officer with the Labor Council of NSW (now Unions NSW).
Paul worked closely with the AWU in organising workers at the Sydney 2000 Olympics and later became an official with the New South Wales Branch of the Union.”
Clinton Ducas @clintonducas
RT @mfarnsworth: ABC predicts the two-party-preferred vote as Coalition 57.5, ALP 42.5, a swing of 6.3%. #wavotes @Pollytics
If I comment I get shunted to the bottom of the page. Chrome.