Essential Research suggests Labor’s recent slump may not have bottomed out yet, with their primary vote down two to 32% and the Coalition steady on 49%. With the Greens up a point to 10%, two-party preferred nonetheless remains steady on 56-44. Further questions relate mostly to the Greens, whose performance in the federal parliament is rated good by 17% and poor by 47%; whose politics are related too extreme by 52% and representative of the views of many by 24%; and whose leader Christine Milne is approved of by 22% (up two since November) and disapproved of by 29% (down four), with 48% (up one) still not knowing. The end of the formal agreement between Labor and the Greens is rated good for the Greens by 33% and bad for them by 26%, while the respective numbers for Labor are 26% and 40%. The poll also gauges firmness of vote, which I tend not to find too illuminating, and has 29% believing the mining tax should be amended to raise more money and 21% believing it should be maintained as is, with only 28% favouring its abolition.
We’ve also had ReachTEL striking while the iron is hot on behalf of the Fairfax papers in western Sydney, with automated phone polls of between 617 and 662 respondents conducted on Thursday in four of the area’s traditionally strong Labor seats. It finds the Liberals with a crushing 63-37 lead in Laurie Ferguson’s seat of Werriwa, a 62-38 lead in Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon, a 54-46 lead in Ed Husic’s seat of Chifley, and a 54-46 lead in Jason Clare’s seat of Blaxland. The respective Labor margins in the four seats are 6.8%, 7.8%, 12.3% and 12.2%. Further questions on how respondents would vote if Kevin Rudd were leader get the usual response. Less usual is the strength of Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, which are net positive in two of the four seats, and the very weak results for the Greens, who score between 2.6% and 3.6% compared with 8.1% and 8.4% at the election.
ReachTEL has also conducted a poll of 693 respondents in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley for Andrew Bolt’s Channel Ten program The Bolt Report. This has Swan trailing his LNP opponent 54-46, almost perfectly replicating the result of another poll ReachTEL conducted for United Voice in January. As usual, it finds things would turn around if Kevin Rudd was Labor leader.
Interest here in Psephos’ modelling activities too.
mimhoff – I hope you’re right.
A crash and burn job?
Who next Combet?
jaundiced view@5349
Willian decides that as you are aware.
Greens are the enemy for Labor every much as is abbott.
In fact radical greens are poison.
eg the defintion of ‘jaundiced ‘ – envy, prejudice and hostility – you got that bit right.
jaundiced view
“…the latest being unjustified 457 xenophobia.”
I reckon Australian jobs should go to Australian residents first. Does this make me xenophobic? I should tell my Japanese girlfriend.:o
@ABCNews24: Watch our #WAVotes coverage now with Kerry O’Brien, @AntonyGreenABC, Defence Minister Stephen Smith & Deputy Oppn Leader @JulieBishopMP
Also remember WA thread here
W.A. Votes on ABC .Red Kerry and JB first up.
No Lionel Murphyism around you then.
Radical poison (as a few examples):
International law & ethical standards for refugees;
The Henry Review mining tax & other taxation recommendations;
Removal of discrimination against minorities; and no exemptions for religions/cults;
Decent assistance for the poor, including single parents;
Full carbon mitigation involvement according to Garnaut.
I also support policies based on the best science and expertise, founded in secular ethics.
Way out there, eh?
It must seem that way, with the two old parties fighting for the same conservative ground, including racists.
Angie Raphael @AngieRaphael
This is what the Labor room looks like tonight. #wavotes #wapol #waelection pic.twitter.com/YOC0APLC06
The Labor room:
https://twitter.com/AngieRaphael/status/310325965211447296/photo/1
Please explain the LM bit.
Administrative law and other stuff seemed to happen.
The Stuka
A Green: 7% swing to Lib in WA possible
http://theaimn.com/2013/03/09/an-open-letter-to-michelle-grattan/
Very well put letter addressed to Michelle Grattan by Victoria Rollison
Awkward for Gillard, this from the US:
Mother Jones
@MotherJones
Study says only major demographic that still opposes same-sex marriage is white, evangelical Christians:
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/03/majority-young-republicans-support-gay-marriage-now
Ctari
With pleasure. Posted this just last night:
“The talk about adultery before reminded me of an element of the best period of Labor government in memory, with a large part of it being carried by Lionel Murphy as Attorney-General. It was a staggering set of huge reforms in a very short time. Amazing, admirable, progressive reform never since seen in these waters.
Over a period essentially of 2 years, 1973-74, Murphy:
Established the Legal Aid Office;
Secularised marriage by authorising marriage celebrants;
Brought in ‘no fault’ divorce;
Abolished the death penalty;
Established the Law Reform Commission;
Had the Trade Practices Act passed & established the TP Commission;
Devised and introduced the Racial Discrimination Bill (not passed until 1975).
He also fought for a Bill of Rights, being a champion of human rights, but sadly couldn’t get it through a hostile Senate after the DD in 1974.
What a guy. Compare the bold secular reform in the marriage area with the clandestine machinations of the party over the removal of marriage discrimination today, wriggling and contorting in order to see its dishonest defeat.
I think we know what Murphy would think of that.”
Psephos
Nice work. Didn’t remember the fixed wheels.
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (-1) L/NP 55 (+1) #auspol”
jaundiced view@5364
Do you know who this is really awkward for, you moron? Let me give you a hint – he is an evangelical right wing twit who has recently refused his entire party a conscience vote on this issue.
Got it yet, imbecile?
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Who should lead ALP: Gillard 32 Rudd 26 Other 33 #auspol”
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Who should lead ALP: Gillard 32 Rudd 26 Other 33 #auspol]
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Is L/NP a credible alternative gov: Yes 59 No 36 #auspol”
[#Galaxy Poll Who should lead ALP: Gillard 32 Rudd 26 Other 33 ]
Oh dear, this will send them painful fukken pavlovian doggys into absolute foetal position
“@justinbarbour: The Barnett Government has been re-elected, says @antonygreebabc – the only thing remaining is by how much. #wavotes”
The Finnigans@5372
I see what you mean.
59% don’t want Gillard to lead.
For an incumbent leader, that is pretty bad.
bemused
Undermining Labor Leader. Your specialty now
Yes the Stuka had fixed wheels. It wasn’t a very sophisticated aircraft, but it was extremely effective at doing what it was desiged to do, which was dive-bombing. At the front of the fuselage behind the propeller you can see the “Jericho horn”, a siren which made a screaming noise when the plane dived. It had a terrifying effect on troops on the ground, particularly during the Polish and French campaigns. It wasn’t so effective on the eastern front, where the Russian discovered they could shoot them down by firing an anti-tank gun straight up at them as they dived.
Player One
Will leave aside your personal abuse (please check the behaviour guidelines) because of which I would not normally respond. It doesn’t add anything to your point.
As we know too well, Labor is ‘allowing’ a ‘conscience vote’ because the catholic/ACL wing running it refuses to legislate to remove the discrimination (unlike all other anti-discrim measures before), and knows that with the Libs voting against, enough Labor catholics will vote against because of church loyalty to see it defeated. A strategic ploy.
If Abbott were to allow a conscience vote, as was briefly rumoured a couple of days ago, the same daleks would quite possibly try to bind all Labor MP’s to vote against.
Finns:
Rudd will retire either at or just after the election.
It can’t come soon enough.
bemused
Plus that poll shows even less support for Rudd
Well, you learn something every day.
I hadn’t known that the Ju87rs had drop tanks… and that drop tanks were introduced, operationally, in the Spanish Civil War.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drop_tank
Psephos
Looked up the Stuka siren.
It would frighten me, in fact it just did.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMZrW0p2INY
Not forgetting the spats… smewhat boxy elsewhere, but elegant ankles.
[59% don’t want Gillard to lead.]
On the other hand, 65% dont want Rudd, what a used bum
JV
[Study says only major demographic that still opposes same-sex marriage is white, evangelical Christians:]
First of all I object to the automatic assumption that USA (or any other foreign country) surveys apply automatically to Australian society; and
Secondly, even if it did apply in Australia, it is possible that the PM and her advisors believe that white evangelicals will decide the next election and must be courted.
Who knows? Anything is possible, it seem, in the “out-of-depth” central office of the ALP.
JV
[Study says only major demographic that still opposes same-sex marriage is white, evangelical Christians:]
First of all I object to the automatic assumption that USA (or any other foreign country) surveys apply automatically to Australian society; and
Secondly, even if it did apply in Australia, it is possible that the PM and her advisors believe that white evangelicals will decide the next election and must be courted.
Who knows? Anything is possible, it seem, in the “out-of-depth” central office of the ALP.
Interesting. Crean gets 13%. Safe pair of hands syndrome?
Apologies for a stuttering computer.
guytaur@5375
Pull your head in you annoying twerp.
swamprat
No worries. I did read it twice. 🙂
I certainly accept the US alien society point. It’s usually the other (conservative) way though. And of course we already have a majority in suport of equality.
It is the fact that most young Republicans are for it that amazed me.
Psephos@5376
I built one from an Airfix kit when in my early teens.
I recall my father once saying the crew were vulnerable to infantry rifle fire through the floor.
I just read the Wikipedia article on them and they were, in certain respects, fairly sophisticated with specialised design features for their dive and pulling out.
guytaur@5379
He is not the incumbent.
bemused
I annoy you for calling out what you are doing.
That is undermining the Labor leader
JV @ 5378
[ If Abbott were to allow a conscience vote, as was briefly rumoured a couple of days ago, the same daleks would quite possibly try to bind all Labor MP’s to vote against. ]
Do you really believe this nonsense? Abbott shouldn’t allow a conscience vote on this issue because if he did the big bad Labor party would unite against him and pervert his principled stand? So naturally he shouldn’t even bother?
Imbecile, I called you … but in hindsight I agree I was being far too kind …
bemused
Not what you said yesterday to justify your obsession for Ruddstoration.
This kills it. He is less popular than Gillard
guytaur
“That is undermining the Labor leader”
When you think about it, it isn’t unheard of. The leader herself does it every day.
Ta for the Stuka pic Psephos. Model aircraft aren’t my main thing but the creation of small detail in any field is something I’m always interested in.
As for the Stuka in reality, I was always of the understanding that it proved excessively vulnerable when used against opponents with a reasonable level of air power, being somewhat slow and with a rather exposed crew. Interesting fact on the Russians though. Typical crude but effective improvisation.
So now PB has Psephos building model aircraft, Davidwh, if I recall correctly, fiddling with H0 model trains and myself involved with somewhat larger model railway stuff and occasional dabblings in traditional stick and tissue flying models. Any other PBers interested in small things?
[ Any other PBers interested in small things? ]
Bemused’s IQ?
Bemused…
You could just as well have said 59% don’t support JG …and 65% don’t support KR…but you didn’t…
Instead you chose to say only… “59% don’t want Gillard to lead”…
Why?
JV
You are not a loyal party member who is supposed to be supporting that leader.
PMJG is undermined by media. Same tactics would work on someone Like Hawke.
We know this as PMJG does get his casual advice
The WA wipe out will be better than a news poll this week….. Labor back benches should be looking for jobs now.