Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than the last on voting intention, but Julia Gillard has lost her lead as preferred prime minister.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Other news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.

• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.

• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.

• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.

• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,100 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. MTBW

    Yeah. It was part of the report on the News.com.au site. Not exactly homo friendly. So I believe them. Apparently its safer to have bright rainbow colours for drivers to see rather than just two white lines with road unmarked between them

  2. dave

    Sometimes animals have more sense than humans – they know when ingredients are changed. (Horse meat, anyone? 🙂 )

  3. Five’ll get you ten, Tabbott has one of those little spirex note pads you have in your shirt pocket where he writes q’s to ask Credlin at debrief sessions every morn’…like..: “How do I answer difficult q’s?”….and he writes them down while biting his tounge between his lips!
    ….And here’s one for you, Dave..from Catch 22..”…and at the top of the list he wrote with a pinched hand the name…”Yossarian?”

  4. [Our dog is going to start a petition against the loss of his special biscuits and the introduction of Woolies “Select” stuff.]

    At least woolies sells cheese, coles has stopped stocking Mainland and only has its owns brands.

  5. Mod Lib

    You must admit, Senator Sinodinos forgetting he was a director of 6 companies is a bit of a stretch of the imagination.

  6. lizzie@3654


    dave

    Sometimes animals have more sense than humans – they know when ingredients are changed. (Horse meat, anyone? )

    Lizzie – Yes your right there.

    What would we be without our dogs 🙂

  7. ML

    ‘Uncle Arthur’ is apparently Sinodinos of whom much was expected and from whom some rather wide stuff has been delivered.

    Sinodinos reckons he is sorry, though, which is probably as close as a Liberal pollie can get to the truth, because he is $3.5 million out of pocket, that we know about.

  8. If that is the case in Queensland as well as every other Lieberal state then why in hell do we need state governments and more is the point why should we the taxpayers be paying them for nothing.

  9. ML

    ‘Did he forget he was director or did he forget to declare he was a director?’

    Forgot seven germane things. Forgot to mention a closer connection to Obeid than the Liberals have been frothing on about in relation to Conroy.

    You Liberals! Impatient to get the snouts in, are we? All those private sector spivs must be salivating. The Coalition is going to be a money-for-jam government for them, isn’t it?

  10. Hey Mod Lib

    Which abbott policies do you support?

    Do you support NDIS dropped ?

    Do you support Gonski dropped ?

    Do you support NBN dropped ?

    Do you support Health Funding cut ?

    Do you support Plain paper wrappers dropped ?

    Do you support Education funding cut ?

    Do you support the Carbon ETS dropped ?

    Straight answers please, no look over there stuff, do you support abbott abolishing the above?

  11. You obviously don’t pay any attention to my posts dave, as I answered every one of those, line by line, the other day.

  12. guytaur

    When we bought this place many years ago we had a family of four kids three girls and one son next door.

    They were always over here and this will give away my era but I taught them how to jive etc and one of them in particular was a great kid. Good company great humour and an absolute delight to have around.

    Turns out many years later that we learned she was gay. She and her partner are very happy and she carried a son who is four years old.

    They both march in the Mardi Gras Parade and tomorrow will be marching with the Rainbow babies.

    She works for NSW Ambulance and is an absolute delight and keeps in touch with me to this day. We all love her!

    Have a great night!

  13. [“closer connection to Obeid”…..huh?]

    When AS was chairman of AWH the company gave Obeid a multi million dollar loan against the value of his shares.

    This money was used to buy the land that had coal underneath.

    Smell something fishy yet?

  14. So AWH received the money they loaned Obeid and the interest Obeid paid on that loan.

    Anything else there or is that it?

    If that is it, I don’t see what the issue is there at all.

  15. SENATOR DAVID FEENEY
    Parliamentary Secretary for Defence, Senator for Victoria

    ADF marches in uniform in Mardi Gras

    Equality takes another step forward tomorrow at the Sydney Mardi Gras, with Australian Defence Force (ADF) personnel marching for the first time ever in uniform.

    Both LGBTI and heterosexual members are marching to show support for equality and workplace inclusion.

    Parliamentary Secretary for Defence, Senator the Hon David Feeney, says he is proud to see the ADF reflecting the community it serves.

    “I am pleased to see that ADF members who serve their nation with pride, who put their lives on the line, are finally able to march in the uniforms they wear day-in and day-out.

    “This is a decision that not everyone will agree with, but it is a fair decision and it is the right decision. I fully support this move.

    “It is a rewarding moment when our ADF can be who they were born to be and to be proud of it – I am proud of each and every one of them.

    “This is just another step under Labor, as we also removed discrimination against same-sex couples from a wide range of federal laws, including tax, social security, health, aged care and employment,” Senator Feeney said.

    This year marks the twentieth anniversary since the cancellation of the Defence Instruction ‘Homosexual Behaviour in the Australian Defence Force’ in 1992.

  16. [So AWH received the money they loaned Obeid and the interest Obeid paid on that loan.

    Anything else there or is that it?

    If that is it, I don’t see what the issue is there at all.]

    Okay. So Obeid is in the clear, Good.

  17. ru

    [You must admit, Senator Sinodinos forgetting he was a director of 6 companies is a bit of a stretch of the imagination.]

    It certainly doesn’t bode well for him potentially running a Department.

  18. Mod Lib@3674


    You obviously don’t pay any attention to my posts dave, as I answered every one of those, line by line, the other day.

    Pleased to hear it.

    But I missed your post.

    Seeing you know your answers, a repost would be appreciated 🙂

  19. ruawake

    [When AS was chairman of AWH the company gave Obeid a multi million dollar loan against the value of his shares.

    This money was used to buy the land that had coal underneath.
    Smell something fishy yet?]
    That’s a bag of prawns left out in the sun for a week !!!

  20. Psephos:

    Can I ask you what it was like to work for Senator Feeney?

    Not the internal ALP stuff, what about the day to day stuff.

    Was it rewarding and exciting or largely boring paperwork or what? Many of my friends have told me I should be a political staffer as I would never want to be the polly myself, but am tragically fascinated by politics so seems like the ideal fit!

  21. ML
    Too soon to say, really. People are starting to twig to Newman. The corruption got started early, even for Queensland Coalition governments. Public services will go down hill. This is what happens when Coalitions get in. It is in their genes. Public infrastructure spending will go downhill. It always does under the coalitioners. Soon the ‘fast-tracked’, process-free, hey mate, white-shoe developments will start cutting in. Lots of people will go nimby once that gets going properly.

    All sorts of small and regional towns are about to get screwed by Newman’s private profit/public cost model.

    And if Newman can get all that done in short order, people will want to hedge their bets and stay away from the Mad Monk.

  22. Psephos

    [“It is a rewarding moment when our ADF can be who they were born to be and to be proud of it – I am proud of each and every one of them.]

    Good on him!

  23. In brief:

    Do you support NDIS dropped ?

    There is no NDIS so it cant be dropped

    Do you support Gonski dropped ?

    There is no Gonski so it cant be dropped

    Do you support NBN dropped ?

    There is no plan to drop the NBN, the Libs want to change it from FTTH to a cheaper version which can be rolled out quicker. If they can do that I support it.

    Do you support Health Funding cut ?

    What Health Funding cut?

    Do you support Plain paper wrappers dropped ?

    Love PPP. One of the great achievements of this government

    Do you support Education funding cut ?

    What Education funding cut?

    Do you support the Carbon ETS dropped ?

    I still have no idea what the government’s carbon tax is for, what it aims to achieve and whether it is having the desired effect or not, so would not be perturbed particularly if it stayed or went.

  24. [Okay. So Obeid is in the clear, Good.]

    If you think that puts Obeid in the clear, the ALP is the perfect party for you! :devil:

  25. ML

    AWH bankrolled the whole coal scheme, ICAC have seized documents. The mess goes to the heart of the NWS Libs and NSW ALP.

    My guess is that everything will go very quiet.

  26. ruawake:

    Well I am fully supportive of everything ICAC is doing and fully supportive of having anyone guilty of corruption- whether ALP, LNP or independent- hung out to dry.

  27. [Can I ask you what it was like to work for Senator Feeney?
    Not the internal ALP stuff, what about the day to day stuff.]

    Someone once defined military service as 90% boredom and 10% terror. Working at Parliament is a bit like that. Long periods when nothing happens (Dried Fruits Slaughter Levy Amendment Bill No 2, debate on second reading, third day, Senator Boswell in continuation, zzzzzzz). Sudden moments of high drama: “the email is a forgery, Turnbull is screwed!” On the whole, the whole experience was very educational. Specifically working for Feeney, contrary to his reputation as a machine man, he’s a serious policy wonk, vastly knowledgable on defence and international affairs, as well as great fun to work for.

  28. [Someone once defined military service as 90% boredom and 10% terror.]

    Being an anaesthetist is meant to be 99% boredom and 1% terror.

  29. The OM has completely missed the big news of the week in that not only do Traveling upholstery Salesman still exist in Rooty Hill but that they have become dedicated Liberal voters.

  30. [“It is a rewarding moment when our ADF can be who they were born to be and to be proud of it – I am proud of each and every one of them.

    Good on him!]

    Indeed, but also good on the ADF brass, who have come a very long way in the 20 years since the ban was lifted. They mostly have a very progressive outlook these days. I met a number of openly gay ADF people while I was working for Feeney, and while they don’t claim everything is perfect, they all said that they have found their workplaces very accepting. The big cultural problem in the ADF is not homophobia, or racism, it is still the attitudes of a minority of heterosexual men towards working with women.

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