Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than the last on voting intention, but Julia Gillard has lost her lead as preferred prime minister.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Other news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.

• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.

• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.

• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.

• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,100 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Mod Lib

    [Not the internal ALP stuff, what about the day to day stuff.

    Was it rewarding and exciting or largely boring paperwork or what? Many of my friends have told me I should be a political staffer as I would never want to be the polly myself, but am tragically fascinated by politics so seems like the ideal fit!]

    Can I answer that question?

    I have worked for three politicians. One Federal and two State.

    Working in the electorate office of a Senator is nowhere near as busy as working in an Electorate office.

    Senators do have Duty Electorates which they cover and visit. They usually have one staff member who travels with them to Canberra when Parliament is sitting. The other two man the Sydney office in our case and look after matters raised by constituents in those electorates.

    State Offices are far more intense in terms of the electorate. You deal with all sorts of State issues like health housing and all the things that fall into the
    State control.

    When you can get someone housed who is living on the street or someone in her seventies living on a pension who asks for help when their mentally ill son has been involved in a pub brawl and has lost most of his teeth you get access to the Dental Health Hospital it is very rewarding.

    Be assured the last thing you do is sit around all day and discuss what the Leader of the Govenment or the Opposition Leader said today – you do not have time for that especially in State Government.

  2. A company lending a shareholder money and using that shareholder’s shares in the company as security for the loan would be an unusual transaction worthy of investigation. I would be interested in a link to that allegation.

  3. @Mod LIb/3688

    Cheaper version will never be cheaper than it is now – someone who’s been watching the debate for last 10 years on the matter.

    ACCC originally estimated $20 billion for the Copper buyout.

  4. It seems $3.75 million is the standard 20 pieces of silver at AWH. Note also the mention in the article about why the spivs are keen on privatisation.

    [A WATER services company linked to the family of ALP kingpin Eddie Obeid gave shares worth as much as $3.75 million to the former treasurer Michael Costa three years after he stopped a public tender that threatened the company’s future.

    The share package came with his appointment last year as chairman of the company, an appointment brokered by Mr Obeid and one of his sons]
    .
    [The real potential to earn serious money was AWH’s repeated attempts to persuade the government to privatise Sydney Water’s activities in the north-west of the city.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/costa-obeid-and-the-water-firm-20121214-2bf8e.html#ixzz2MGsQLTMb

  5. Thanks Psephos and MTBW!

    So who else has worked for a polly here?

    Time to fess up folks….it is intra-Pope confessional time on PB.

  6. [Do you feel like you made a difference?]

    I was personally able to help a number of ex-ADF people get awards they were entitled to but had been denied. I did a lot of work on solving the aircraft noise problem near RAAF Williamtown that I think was useful and appreciated.

  7. Great post by truth seeker re Cando

    TONY ABBOTT’S MINI ME

    [The problem is that the conservative side of politics believe that government should be run like a business, and they are ideologically driven to producing surpluses regardless of the impact on the lives of workers or the wider economy.]

    The problem is that the conservative side of politics believe that government should be run like a business, and they are ideologically driven to producing surpluses regardless of the impact on the lives of workers or the wider economy.

    http://truthseekersmusings.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/tony-abbotts-mini-me/

  8. Thanks Psephos!

    I have considered this as a career change, perhaps in 5 or 10 years time!

    Maybe I will see if the Turnbull government is still running by then, don’t want to leave my current job just yet!

  9. I worked for Denise Allen when she was State Member for Benalla, for two days a week.

    Nothing to do with politics – it was the sort of work MTBW describes.

    Worse still for me, as the fastest typist in the office, they kept all the correspondence for me to answer, so my two days was generally spent answering letters.

  10. [I have considered this as a career change, perhaps in 5 or 10 years time!]

    The best time to start these jobs is when your party is in opposition. Then you get to ride the “up” escalator with your boss. The reverse process can be rather depressing.

  11. My opinion of the good Senator Feeney has gone up. Why he holds second fiddle to Senator Collins is beyond me. She seems like a sane, law abiding version of the former Senator Fisher… a seat warmer. Despite my previous opinion of him, I would have prefered he get the higher spot over her.

  12. Dio:

    I would be completely shocked if there hasn’t been one already in Australia!

    Pretty much every second Australian I meet tells me they either are Buddhist, or would be Buddhist if they had to choose one of the major religions.

  13. Ok, they do say that if you see Buddha on the road, kill him.

    So, what are we supposed to do if we see a Buddhist on the road?

  14. Agree with pseph. Likewise, the best time to join a political party is when things are at their bleakest. It’s easier to meet the movers and shakers, and a lot of potential movers and shakers.

  15. poroti

    Apparently Newman has announced that he wants to privatize the office of Premier.

    It would be cheaper and better, he reckons.

  16. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Ok, they do say that if you see Buddha on the road, kill him.]

    I am afraid you are too late, the Buddha is dead already…

  17. we have been down the privatisation of government services in WA starting with the Court government. Chief hachet man Graham Kierath (if ever there was a Tory who disliked workers and unions it was him) tried it on with hospital orderlies, school cleaners and gardeners among other things, those types of low paid government workers, with varying degrees of success. It was soon found that these types of people actually cared about their jobs and the workplace and would often go the extra yard that a contractor wouldnt. You know they type of thing, the local lady who has been cleaning at the school for 30 years is actually part of the place and keeps an eye on things, somebody who has three schools to do in a day couldnt care less.
    We now have private companies running government hospitals and there are some shenanigans invoving one of those and the Barnett government has outsourced the non medical work at the soon to be opened Fiona Stanley super hospital (a Labor project by the way) to the multi national service provider Serco.
    I Guess we could go the whole hog and have everything done by operatives of a mysterious company based in some foreign tax haven. Sounds like Tory heaven

  18. guytaur
    [Also hopefully Minister Gay will approve permanence for Rainbow crossing too. Interesting that police want to have it at every traffic crossing.]
    As can seemingly only happen in Darlinghurst, this became a bit of a cause celebre – there were supposed to be two, but with a cost blow out due to Roads & Maritime NSW, there is only one.
    [At a Council meeting on Monday evening however, councillors were informed that there would only be one crossing while costs had grown by a further $40,000 due to demands by RMS for dedicated CCTV, variable message boards and payment for the removal of the crossing after only a 30 day period.]
    http://gaynewsnetwork.com.au/news/national/10651-rainbow-crossing-unites-sydney-divides-forster-and-greenwich.html

    Anyway, I just saw it and it looks pretty cool. Even if it is missing indigo…

  19. Psephos / MTBW

    Ever considered being on the other side of the tele-prompt?

    What stopped you if the answer is no?

    I know zoomster has already given this a go….

  20. [Now, what about the Buddhists on the road?]

    The only advice I think the Buddha gave on that matter is to take the middle path!

    Like being a moderate liberal for example :devil:

  21. Mod Lib

    The only one I can find is Geoff Gallop, and I’m guessing he became a Buddhist after resigning as Premier.

    He’s written an interesting article on how Buddhism and politics mesh.

    On the numbers of Buddhists, only 3% of Australians identify as Buddhists in the census. Obviously a lot more perform some of the practices, esp mindfulness.

    http://australiansangha.org/australiansangha/reflections/prof-geoff-gallop-buddhism-australian-society/

  22. [My opinion of the good Senator Feeney has gone up. Why he holds second fiddle to Senator Collins is beyond me. She seems like a sane, law abiding version of the former Senator Fisher… a seat warmer. Despite my previous opinion of him, I would have prefered he get the higher spot over her.]

    That’s a very inaccurate comparison. Collins is a serious Catholic and that of course colours her views on some issues, but she’s a very sane, solid, hard-working Labor Senator and a good Parl Sec. There’s only one No 1 Senate spot and sadly Collins and Feeney couldn’t both have it. The real question is why a log like Gavin Marshall gets the No 2 spot – and the answer is that he’s from the Kim Carr left and protected by this unholy “stablity agreement” between the factions, which I thoroughly disapprove of.

  23. Dio:

    You might not believe this but I was asked whether I wanted to go on QandA to represent Buddhism later in the year!

    I decided to say no as it is kinda not quite kosher to have someone “representing” Buddhism and anyway there are better people than me (like the person they have lined up for 1st April)

  24. BTW:

    The monk representing Buddhism on QandA on 1st April is second from the back in the pic on the link you posted Dio!!!!!

  25. Dare I ask when the next poll of note at a federal level is being published?

    (Cue: “This is just the mainstream media’s poll-driven agenda! Don’t dare to come to a site like this and expect to talk about polls!”)

  26. Psephos

    I don’t doubt her sanity, or hard work; you don’t get into Parliament by being an idiot or lazy, at least not in the ALP. I also don’t have any greater knowledge of Senator Marshall than I do of Collins, so I can’t tell if you comment is factional bickering or accurate. I’m not getting involved in a factional balkanisation. I’m sure he has every quality you assign to Collins.

  27. [Ever considered being on the other side of the tele-prompt?

    What stopped you if the answer is no?]

    I value my privacy and I’m not good at suffering fools.

  28. Did Nixon actually say he would have made a good pope (or is that just apocryphal?)
    [On Thursday, Panorama magazine reported that the Vatican Secretariat of State had ordered wiretaps on the phones of several Vatican prelates as part of an investigation into the scandal in which confidential documents were leaked to the news media and the author of a tell-all book.

    The Vatican spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, said Thursday that magistrates of the Vatican “might have authorized some wiretaps or some checks,” but nothing on a significant scale.

    Vatican watchers say the wiretapping was a shocking breach of trust and an indication of the high levels of distrust since the leaks scandal. But Father Lombardi dismissed that. The idea of “an investigation that creates an atmosphere of fear of mistrust that will now affect the conclave has no foundation in reality,” he said.]
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/world/europe/pope-benedict-xvi.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  29. [Dare I ask when the next poll of note at a federal level is being published? ]

    Essential Monday
    Neilsen when it gets around tuit
    Newspoll in a week or two
    Morgan in a week or two
    Galaxy anytime someone pays them
    Reachtel When Ch7 wants an exclusive.

    So all quiet on the polling front.

  30. [I can’t say I’ve ever been on the other side of a tele prompt!]

    I been behind a camera behind a teleprompt.

  31. Correction. I once did an audition — yonks and yonks ago – for a TV show, where I had to read from a tele prompt. Made a right mess of it.

  32. I remember an old uncle of mine being amazed, ages and ages ago, at how the newsreaders could remember their lines, word for word, without a hiccup…..felt bad when I told him about teleprompts!

  33. Ah the get out clause.

    [Mr Costello said it was a bad time to sell electricity assets.

    He said the sale of generators should be delayed until there was certainty about the carbon tax and renewable energy targets, and a decision about distributors should be made after 2015 when new price regulations come in.]

    So Newman has to cop the pain of selling stuff, even though Hammock has told him not to sell stuff until after the next Qld election.

    Newman – get your money back.

  34. Mod Lib

    [Ever considered being on the other side of the tele-prompt?

    What stopped you if the answer is no?]

    No is my answer it was never my ambition. I once was asked to run for the Local Council at the behest of others to fill the ticket which I finally agreed to but have absolutely never regretted not being elected.

    I like the cut and thrust of politics but have never wanted to be a representative. Being in a position where you can actually get a great result for someone is what gives you a sense of having done something really needed by someone is very rewarding.

    Most people have no idea of how to get through the system at all. I have been given home baked cakes and very kind letters from those I had helped and it is very rewarding particularly in the State arena.

  35. [I remember an old uncle of mine being amazed, ages and ages ago, at how the newsreaders could remember their lines, word for word, without a hiccup…..felt bad when I told him about teleprompts!]

    Depends how far back. Once newsreaders read scripts from paper on the desk, they always pre-read and could do it by glancing at the copy.

    Next came butchers paper held next to the camera. Then a typed scroll of paper with the newsreader controlling the speed with a foot pedal.

    Now it is a computer generated screen that the camera shoots through.

    Times change. Stapling the news copy together was always a good joke for newbie news readers. 😆

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