GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).
We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.
UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.
rummel:
Why is it funny? It’s actually a genuine side effect of Abbott’s ‘trees anywhere’ approach to dealing with AGW.
The volunteer fireys I deal with for work are aghast at his stupidity, yet you laud him.
Why?
Player One@172
I think handled properly it could at the very least minimise losses.
Wrong again Player One. I am not involved in any faction of the ALP but have friends in all.
I never concede an election until the leader has on election night.
Clearly you know nothing of the ALP membership but are some kind of voyeur.
[Jackol
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:24 pm | PERMALINK
Davidwh @188 – I’d agree with that assessment, although I’d thrown in the sport doping scandal as well.]
And dont forget all the single mothers Labor have upset. Might explane the big fall in female support.
Confessions re 193
My apologies – so you would vote for Labor if Rudd were to become leader?
F
Hitherto unaware that Bemused was running the country.
[So who will not vote Labor if Kev leads Labor to the next election?]
I would vote informal, for the first time. Rudd is not a fit person to be Prime Minister, and I could not in good conscience vote for him. I would probably vote Green in the Senate (much as I loathe the Greens) as the only way to deny Abbott a Senate majority without voting for Rudd.
gloryconsequence@178
No.
They agreed to support the ALP, not an individual and when asked about this recently, Tony Windsor talked about the govt going full term in such circumstances.
The strategy of Old Media …led by Unca Rupes newsLtd …and the Opposition is transparently clear. They fear Julia Gillard …particularly during the campaign proper …as their man can’t debate policy …think on his feet …or make a speech without slavishly following what’s written down for him.
Julia and Labor have a raft of social/economic policies they can advertise …Abbott has diddly squat …and it’s showing already. Coalition cannot possibly win any policy debate & people will see through the white noise more and more as the spotlight inevitably begins to shine on Abbott the man …and the Coalition’s (lack of) policies.
Someone wisely said before July last year that the un-hinging in Old Media & the Coalition would ramp up as it became clear that a) there would be no early election …b) Carbon Pricing would not wreck the economy …and c) Julia was not going to lay down and die.
Polls now are a reflection of that un-hinging ..and of course ICAC is a contributing factor. However, when we get to the pointy end of the campaign proper …people will have a clear and stark choice …and many will vote on the basis of WIIFM ….as always.
Rudd is completely irrelevant to this process …and the vast majority of ALP caucus know that a return to him would only make their job harder …it isn’t going to happen.
What can only be a Green voter confronts Abbott in Perth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDLAUmqp8f4
I’m reserving judgement on the sports doping issue Jackol. I would hate to believe any government would deliberately hype up such an issue just as a political diversion. But I concede the sporting media are pushing that line to an extent.
We do need to see much more than what we have to date to justify the strong language used at the media release but there could be very good reasons to withhold information at this stage. We have to be patient.
Rummel
Sure. The whole 800.
gloryconsequence – evidence of that? Did he ever have approval ratings as bad as Gillard? Did he ever trail any LOTO as PPM? Did the Coalition ever have a 30% primary vote under his leadership?
[ Clearly you know nothing of the ALP membership but are some kind of voyeur. ]
C’mon bemused – you can do better than that. In your excitement over these bad polls, you’ve been caught out saying we should re-install Rudd because at least he would “minimize losses”. Not because he could win.
And then I get called a traitor here for saying that Gillard could win – something that most people on both sides would readily concede!
Go figure!
If Rudd is reinstalled (very unlikely IMO) then he would need to negotiate a new deal with the independents covering the remainder of this parliament. They would probably support him – I can’t see them switching to Abbott at this stage. September 14 would be up for grabs too, although any new date can’t be very different. I think he would be unlikely to go before August 3, which would required a separate half-Senate election before the middle of next year.
Player One@186
Your premise is false.
Fil R:
As I have said before on this site, if Rudd were to become leader again, whether I continued to vote Labor would depend on the policy direction he steered the party in. And make no mistake that it would be Rudd Labor, not Labor, as it was the last time he led. Difference is we are all the wiser to his antics this time around.
Evening all
Neilsen is hardly a surprise given the other polls… and just as useless. PV down 5 & Abbott + 9 PPM… give me a break! The natives are obviously skittish. All MRRT noise.
Rudd leadership speculation in the news all week and the sports crime commission reports, aussie bogans don’t want to hear that there sporting heroes might be cheating, and accusations coming from a politician is even worse.
I think it was David Cameron at the Leveson inquiry who said TV was better way to get your message out, Labor will not get any positive help from the Newspapers.
Someone from Labor has to be on the News every night, they have to start humiliating Abbott for not doing hard interviews or walking away from questions, put the doubt in people’s mind that he is not fit for the role as PM.
The NBN is very popular, a big media blitz on the benefits of Fiber to the Home and the downsides of FTTN.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
rummel:
Why is it funny? It’s actually a genuine side effect of Abbott’s ‘trees anywhere’ approach to dealing with AGW.
The volunteer fireys I deal with for work are aghast at his stupidity, yet you laud him.
Why?]
lol again. I thought replacing all those cut forests would be a good thing…. im really confused with Green/Labor logic. Should we cut down more forest in Tasmania because they have proven again to to be deadly?. Abbott is very well placed to risk assess his planting tree plan since he does get in among them to fight bush fires.
There are many good attack lines against Abbott, but this one is off the reservation.
Voting Labor under PM Kev are you Confessions lol.
David – there’s also the Crossin/Peris affair.
Fil R@195
Yes, put up or shut up.
Matty in the big scheme of things I doubt Peris/Crossin is more than a ripple.
Rudd will not be reinstated. The concept is moronic. Get your heads out of your behinds.
Matty D – the NT byelection that was just held didn’t have many implications outside the NT, but the one implication it most definitely did have was to blow this idea that the “Crossin/Peris” affair would drive voters in the NT away from the ALP.
As an issue outside of the NT it would have no traction.
[Psephos
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
So who will not vote Labor if Kev leads Labor to the next election?
I would vote informal, for the first time. Rudd is not a fit person to be Prime Minister, and I could not in good conscience vote for him.]
But Psephos…. what about party loyalty?
crikey whitey@205
So was I.
But I stand ready to serve if needed. 😛
rummel:
Oh well, you choose ignorance.
Good luck with that
Matty Dear
I am aware that you are very young. And maybe not able to understand very much.
Ask your parents to help you out in an exercise.
The seat of Wanguri would be a start.
There’s been only 2 paths thrown about as possible:
a) JG stays as PM, or
b) Leadership spill
a third – I reckon less likely than a. but much, much more likely than b. is that JG, being the classy operator I think she is, will hand over the reigns (and it won’t be Rudd), going back to education&deputy, if she thinks it would help the ALP – April/May ish
Matty D @200 there’s also the Crossin/Peris affair.
All forgotten, the media has moved on.
bemused@215
Quite right. Dump Gillard = immediate election. Who here (apart from bemused) still thinks this is a good idea?
Your premise is false.
Oh yeah?
From http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/windsor-renews-threat-to-labor-minority-government-over-pm/story-fn59niix-1226430711029
[ KEY independent Tony Windsor has reaffirmed his stance that “all bets would be off” in his agreement with Labor to form minority government should Julia Gillard be replaced as Prime Minister.
Mr Windsor said there was “no change” in his view towards the Labor leadership and his agreement with Julia Gillard was “not transferrable”.
“What I’ve consistently said throughout all of this is if there is a change of leadership all bets would be off,” the Member for New England told ABC Radio.
“The document I signed with Julia Gillard is not a transferrable document.” ]
You are a fool if you are suggesting Labor should cross Windsor. Rudd wouldn’t last past his first sitting day.
226
You would probably do a better job than Rudd would.
Player One@213
You are deliberately verbaling me which is a form of dishonesty.
I went on to say there would even be a chance of winning if certain things happened.
[But Psephos…. what about party loyalty?]
But rummel….what about supporting ignorant buffoons???
Wasn’t it you earlier bemoaning Piers on Insiders? Welcome to your future if you vote Liberal.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:44 pm | PERMALINK
But Psephos…. what about party loyalty?
But rummel….what about supporting ignorant buffoons???]
Confessions
I did not know you were so out spoken on the blight that is NSW Labor.
Matty D,
D&D, buddy?
Player One@231
And you are an even bigger fool if you interpret what I said in that way.
rummel:
Speaking of ignorant buffoons. Where are all those trees going to go? Not only are they a bushfire risk (which you amazingly don’t have a problem with given you’re a vollie), but which farmers are going to be forced into tree growing for the federal govt as a result of Abbott’s stupid plan?
This is the party you are voting for.
Confessions re 216
“As I have said before on this site, if Rudd were to become leader again, whether I continued to vote Labor would depend on the policy direction he steered the party in. ”
Thanks for that. So you’re no longer quite with Psephos as you were back in July 2012 when you endorsed his statement re Rudd that –
“If the Labor Party is stupid enough to return him as Leader, I won’t be voting for it.”
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/07/09/newspoll-and-essential-research-56-44-to-coalition-2/?comment_page=46/#comments
And by the way I enjoyed heartily your comment
“The one thing that annoys me more than the Rudd whiteanting is his fellow cultists resorting to untruths to smear those who call out Rudd’s whiteanting ways.”
F
[confessions
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:40 pm | PERMALINK
rummel:
Oh well, you choose ignorance.
Good luck with that]
Im sorry for supporting the planting of trees, i was feeling all green and righteous there for a second.
Tom the first and best@232
😆 😆 😆
david and Jackol – as for the 7 states/territories outside the NT, yes it won’t matter a great deal, but voters will steal subconsciously remember it as part of Labor filth.
As for the NT, as you may or may not know, I am from the NT, and believe me, it is palpable up here. The by election yesterday was quite surprising, but it must be noted that the seat Wanguri is the safest Labor seat in our Parliament, and ultimately, voting intention is not always parallel between state/territory and federal. I do concede that there are implications in general, but they’re never ever completely in unison (a fact that, strangely, ALP supporters were saying at the time of last year’s Qld election, but hypocritically/contradictory are now saying that because of Newman, Labor could win federal Qld seats at the election).
Peris will in all likelihood be elected. It’s pretty much guaranteed that Labor and the CLP will split the 2 senate seats, as happens in the ACT, literally invariably.
The bigger picture question here is if Labor can retain Lingiari, and with a margin of little over 3%, current polling indicates that they won’t.
Matty D@176
Certainly a bad sign in general for a PM to be trailing on PPM given that it advantages incumbents. But I wouldn’t lay it on too thick on that score given that Keating in 93 and Howard in 98 both trailed as PPM by 1 point in the last poll and won.
Most of these Nielsen figures are pretty useless, it’s the 2PP and the primaries where the major problem lies.
238
The Abbott plan specifically says public land so as to exclude the possibility of dislodging farming.
Full table breakdowns will be interesting. I tend to think a leader has an issue if their own party’s voters prefer their rival.
Good win by Labor in Wanguri today.
Good policy initiative launched by the PM today.
No chance, David McRae.
Julia will be there.
rummel,
Save your humour for those warrant it. You have plenty.
confessions is genuine.
Fil R:
Schnappi used to comment here but is now on twitter. I am not Schnappi.
rummel:
And then there is Abbott’s PPL tax. Applied to the companies he’s identified will impact the big 4 banks. Do you think they won’t pass on the cost of the tax to consumers?
This is the party you are voting for. A party which would willingly impose a mortgage interest rate rise on Australians.
[but which farmers are going to be forced into tree growing for the federal govt as a result of Abbott’s stupid plan?]
Maybe the same ones Labor are trying to rip water (money) from along the murray.
win win!