Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year joins the chorus in showing a big slump for Julia Gillard and her government.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).

We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.

UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,068 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. bemused – let’s say Rudd is reinstalled tomorrow.

    We’d have an election almost immediately as per Indies agreement.

    Not much time to clean up anything.

  2. Re The Greens
    _+___________
    Those violently ant-Greens like GG(where is he ??) have said endlessl,y that the Greens are dying…but their poll of 11% is still close to what they got when Bob Brown was leader

    I guess they are holding onto desperate ex-Labor voters

  3. Socrates@141


    I agree with Bemused, Confessions and Fran on the need for calmness and good government from Labor now, and no leadership change.

    Expelling Rudd now would be as stupid as a leadership change. It will just make Labor look vindictive, and make Rudd a martyr. Stupid.

    As a closing comment on corruption, sure enough Wikipedia has a relevant list! Here it is:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Australian_politicians_convicted_of_crimes

    I expect at least three names will be added within eighteen months. Night all.

    Well you don’t agree with me because I think a leadership change is imperative.

  4. [I think handled properly it could at the very least minimise losses.]

    Bingo – this is the real game that is afoot.

    As Howard said, its about arif-matic.

    Find me 10 ALP MHRs in marginal seats who want to keep their seats and I’ll show 10 Kevin Rudd supporters.

    Now, what was the gap at the last leadership vote again?

  5. Player one, I have said that several times already today, although I pointed out that both Rudd’s proponents and his critics need to stop. Blaming Rudd for every bad problem does not help.

  6. Player One@142


    Hmmmmm not sure your praise assists me.


    Hey bemused – has it occurred to you that you seem to get more praise on this site from LNP supporters than from ALP supporters?

    Of course, I’m sure all those LNP supporters really have Labor’s best interests at heart … but just maybe … just possibly … do you think there might be the slightest chance … that there is a message there that you are simply not hearing?

    Actually, I get along fine with other ALP members like feeney and daretotread.

    A lot of the so-called ALP supporters here are just a fan club.

  7. Bemused

    Sorry I should not have included you in the leadership change, only the need for stability in other respects. I respect your view and have deep concerns about Gillard, but I think It is too late for that now.

  8. [bemused – let’s say Rudd is reinstalled tomorrow.

    We’d have an election almost immediately as per Indies agreement.]

    I don’t agree actually.

    I think, at this point, it’s in everybody’s best interest to wait a few months extra for the half-Senate election to be available too…

  9. I’ve been thinking about what it might mean if Rudd is taken at his word that he’s not interested in taking on the leadership – certainly not before the election.

    He knows he would never come back if Gillard wins in September, but there might be an ambassadorship for being seen to be not too unhelpful – and just to get rid of him gracefully. When does Beazley’s term in Washington end?

    On the other hand if Labor loses in September…. well Menzies came back from a disastrous first term, while Howard succeeded after a couple of failures albeit from opposition only.

    In the meantime he can just enjoy schadenfreude.

    F

  10. markjs@150


    Bemused…

    Rudd is a treacherous narcissistic sociopath who has zero idea of how to work in a team towards a common goal… imho

    That you continuously abuse other contributors of this blog who hold this view …is a reflection on you. Your reflexive posting whenever the name Kevin Rudd comes up suggests you are determined to dominate the discussion & impose your will on those who disagree with you. There is a word for this behaviour…

    I find this domineering attitude offensive and inhibiting ….PollBludgers is NOT about you…

    Well that’s a bit rich considering all the abuse I cop on here. I probably return about 20% of it.

    Poll Bludger is about matters psephological and that includes leadership of political parties, their policies, tactics, campaigning, membership etc.

    Sorry if any of that causes you undue stress.

  11. [On the other hand if Labor loses in September…. well Menzies came back from a disastrous first term, while Howard succeeded after a couple of failures albeit from opposition only.]

    Doubtful. Can’t see Rudd putting in the hard yards coming back from opposition.

  12. A faction on PB continually attacks Bemused, though i have no doubt he will vote Labor under Gillard. Others from Team Gillard im not so sure of if Kevin get another run.

    So who will not vote Labor if Kev leads Labor to the next election?

  13. gloryconsequence@151


    bemused – let’s say Rudd is reinstalled tomorrow.

    We’d have an election almost immediately as per Indies agreement.

    Not much time to clean up anything.

    That is your first false assumption. There is no agreement such as you mention.

  14. bemused@148


    gloryconsequence@140

    bemused
    Do you suggest that a “drafting” of Rudd could possibly result in a Rudd victory?


    I think handled properly it could at the very least minimise losses.

    And here, I think, we finally see the truth from bemused: On the basis of a couple of bad polls, he is willing to concede an election that is still seven months away. He wants to have Rudd reinstated NOW to “minimize losses”.

    All because the current ALP leader doesn’t happen to belong to the right “faction” for him and his party buddies.

    I hope he’s not typical of the wider ALP membership, because he is truly, truly sad.

  15. rummel – I will always vote Labor. But for all those people who say they will return to Labor if Rudd is reinstalled, there are probably as many who will be put off by it.

    The options became limited when the party launched the extraordinary public attack on Rudd this time last year.

  16. Honestly, why do other Labor fans/supporters refuse to accept what your fellow Laborite, bemused, has, that the electorate at large doesn’t like Gillard? She’s not liked, she’s not trusted, and in fact, she’s very much loathed, and not respected. I for one have absolutely no respect for her, which is sad, because I would want to have respect for my Prime Minister.

    It doesn’t look like Nielsen did approval ratings, but she’s behind Abbott as PM, and no incumbent PM, Premier or Chief Minister should ever be behind there. Labor has also played the gender card for all that it’s worth, but that has been an epic failure too, with women voting for the Coalition 53-47, on a two party preferred basis.

    The electorate doesn’t like or respect Gillard, I am telling you nicely.

  17. bemused – did the Indies not have an agreement that Gillard would lead Labor, if not they would withdraw which forces an election?

  18. bemused

    [ Actually, I get along fine with other ALP members like feeney and daretotread.

    A lot of the so-called ALP supporters here are just a fan club. ]

    You really can’t see the irony in this, can you?

  19. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:12 pm | PERMALINK
    So who will not vote Labor if Kev leads Labor to the next election?

    You.

    Now stop trolling.]

    Come on Confessions… fess up. will you vote kev if he is leader again?

  20. Just as I expected. You can always count on good old Neilsen to come up with the lowest pv for Labor when things are not going well for the government.

  21. While I’m at it, I just wanna-say I hate pancreatic cancer.

    I watched Peter Harvey’s quiet dignity tonight on the ABC, and I wish we could find a way to limit the damage this bastard silent killer wreaks.

    My favourite keyboard player, john lord, lost his fight against pancreatic cancer last year.

    Harvey did so well tonight, but he is obviously very sick.

  22. Socrates@159


    Bemused

    Sorry I should not have included you in the leadership change, only the need for stability in other respects. I respect your view and have deep concerns about Gillard, but I think It is too late for that now.

    What is needed, Socrates is for the ALP itself to be applying a cleansing fire to the NSW Branch rather than leaving it up to the aftermath of ICAC.

    Gillard is incapable of doing this. I am not even certain Rudd is, but I see it as the only strategy to rescue the dire situation in NSW.

    If losses there can be contained, and we get the expected gains in Qld, the ALP has a slim chance.

    And that is more important to continuing to pay obeisance to the cult of the blessed Julia.

  23. gloryconsequence@178


    bemused – did the Indies not have an agreement that Gillard would lead Labor, if not they would withdraw which forces an election?

    Quite right. Dump Gillard = immediate election. Who here (apart from bemused) still thinks this is a good idea?

  24. Rummel re 167

    “So who will not vote Labor if Kev leads Labor to the next election?”

    I will be voting Labor regardless of leader.

    Confessions, Boerwar and Psephos have said several times they will not vote Labor if Rudd is leader.

    F

  25. Too much emphasis is being placed on Rudd as the reason for what now seems like a 5% movement in primary votes from Labor to the Coalition. I think it’s much more complex than Rudd and the media. Obviously the happenings in NSW have played and important part and the arrest of Thomson was a factor. Personally I think the early election call, the resignations of two senior ministers and the failure of the MRRT to achieve what Swan made so much noise about are critical factors.

    A complex set of factors all feeding into the political environment in a short period of time and all factors negative for Labor.

  26. rummel:

    As a volunteer firey why are you voting for a party which pledges to plant more trees which in all reality will only be a greater bushfire risk for future generations?

  27. Fil R:

    Really? I’ve said that have I? I’m sure you have proof.

    The one thing that annoys me more than the Rudd whiteanting is his fellow cultists resorting to untruths to smear those who call out Rudd’s whiteanting ways.

  28. davidwh@188


    Too much emphasis is being placed on Rudd as the reason for what now seems like a 5% movement in primary votes from Labor to the Coalition. I think it’s much more complex than Rudd and the media. Obviously the happenings in NSW have played and important part and the arrest of Thomson was a factor. Personally I think the early election call, the resignations of two senior ministers and the failure of the MRRT to achieve what Swan made so much noise about are critical factors.

    A complex set of factors all feeding into the political environment in a short period of time and all factors negative for Labor.

    I never thought I’d say this … but you are like a breath of fresh air on this blog tonight 🙂

    Labor has just cleaned house. The polls got worse. Now they can govern more effectively. The polls will get better.

    Will they win? Don’t know – but unlike the so-called “ALP members” here, I think they are in with a shot.

  29. crikey whitey at 192

    “Rudd is a traitor”

    In that case as a Labor member you should immediately launch procedings within the Party against him – let us know when you start

    F

  30. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel:

    As a volunteer firey why are you voting for a party which pledges to plant more trees which in all reality will only be a greater bushfire risk for future generations?]

    Thats the funniest attack on the Libs i have seen…..

    So fess up Confessions, i take it from your silence that you will not vote Labor under PM Kevin Rudd.

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