Wanguri by-election live

The by-election to fill former ALP Chief Minister Paul Henderson’s northern Darwin seat in the Northern Territory parliament is a three-candidate, two-polling booth affair.

8.27pm. On the final figures for the night there have been 3663 formal votes cast compared with 4239 at the general election, with probably only a handful still to come.

7.27pm. Leanyer and Wanguri have both reported, and it really has been a cakewalk for Labor, who have picked up double-digit swings at both booths and also on postals and pre-polls. Surprisingly high turnout as well – possibly even higher than at the election. Labor has 69.7% of the two-party vote which pans out to a swing of 12.7%, whether going off raw or booth-matched figures. The primary vote totals are 65.5% for Labor, 28.1% for the CLP and 6.4% for Peter Rudge.

7.08pm. 120 postals have been added, and it’s another encouraging indication for Labor breaking 75-45 their way. The CLP scored a slight majority on postal votes at the election. Peter Rudge is on 6.8%.

7.05pm. The independent turns out to be Peter Rudge, who made a splash when he ran in Nightcliff at the election.

7.00pm. The NTEC site has been intermittently blocking the results page to “unauthorised” access, and is doing so at present. Most unhelpful.

6.50pm. Turns out I was wrong about there only being two candidates: there’s also an independent called Rudge. The Darwin pre-poll booth has reported, and it splits 129-58 to Labor, which is much better than they did on pre-polls at the election. The other pre-poll booths was in Alice Springs and presumably didn’t do much business.

5.50pm. Polls close in ten minutes for Northern Territory’s Wanguri by-election, held to replace the outgoing former Chief Minister Paul Henderson. As was the case at the general election last August, the seat has attracted only two candidates: Labor’s Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser, and the Country Liberal Party’s Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP. The electorate covers the northern Darwin suburbs of Leanyer and Wanguri, together with part of the new suburb of Lyons, which are each accommodated by a single polling booth. The local breakdown of last August’s election result is as follows:

		Votes	ALP	Swing
Leanyer		1840	57.4%	-5.4%
Wanguri		1412	59.6%	-7.3%
Other		987	52.5%	-14.3%

		4239	57.0%	-7.4%

Wanguri was held by the CLP’s Don Dale from its creation in 1983 until his retirement in 1989, subsequently falling to Labor’s John Bailey at a by-election. Bailey nearly lost the seat against the trend of a general pro-Labor swing at the 1994 election, which some blamed on CLP push-polling. Bailey’s retirement in 1999 precipitated a by-election in which Paul Henderson picked up an 11.5% two-party swing. Despite a redistribution turning it into a notional CLP seat, Henderson was comfortably returned in 2001 with 55.3% of the primary vote, to which he added a further 15.5% in 2005. The air from that balloon went out to the tune of 5.9% in 2008 and a redistribution-adjusted 7.4% in 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

16 comments on “Wanguri by-election live”

  1. Not many votes but it looks like a bit of a thumping. Might give Labor hope for winning Soloman. Not sure if there are any implications for Lingari.

  2. Can’t Wait to see the old media hyperventilate over how this is obviously a vote of no-confidence in Tony Abbott.

    Any second now…

  3. Looks like buyers remorse has taken hold in The NT.

    Qld voters will take a little longer to wake up to the fraud they have been subject to, but they will and the result will not be too pleasant for the LNP!

  4. Wow. I never thought it likely the CLP would win, or probably even get a swing to them, but this sort of margin suggests they have lost popularity even faster than Newman, in Darwin at least.

  5. I have not been near the NY since1967 but this result cheers me as much as a w in any seat falling to Labor anywhere in the rest of Oz.

    [Labor romps home in Wanguri
    NICOLE MILLS | February 16th, 2013

    LABOR’s Nicole Manison has comprehensively won the seat of Wanguri – with Chief Minister Terry Mills saying the Government has “acknowledged the message” sent by voters.]
    [Nicole Manison wins Wanguri for Labor
    From: AAP
    February 17, 2013 12:56AM

    NICOLE Manison has won an overwhelming victory for Labor in the Northern Territory by-election for the seat of Wanguri.]
    [Lee faces scrutiny over poll campaign support
    By Michael Coggan
    Updated Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:17pm AEDT

    A recently amended declaration of donations by Country Liberals politician Larisa Lee in the lead-up to last year’s Northern Territory election has prompted the Opposition to demand a police investigation.]

  7. >>I have not been near the NT since 1967

    It’s still be familiar after all this time. The buildings are newer because of Tracy but the place is still full of embittered “independent minded” Territorians (some of whom have been in the place for as long as two weeks) sucking on the government teat, bleating on about government interference and drinking themselves to death.

  8. Did Wanguri get a mention on the Insiders? If so I missed it. Wonder how quickly it would have been highlighted if the swing was 13% against Labor. Not paranoid, just sick of the narrative. Whole show seemed to be about what’s wrong with fed govt.

    Hope Labor can find something in WA.

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