Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year joins the chorus in showing a big slump for Julia Gillard and her government.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).

We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.

UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,068 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. So does anyone know the approval/disapproval ratings for Abbott and Gillard, and/or the state breakdowns, from the poll? I can’t find them anywhere.

  5. bemused@237


    Player One@231


    You are a fool if you are suggesting Labor should cross Windsor. Rudd wouldn’t last past his first sitting day.


    And you are an even bigger fool if you interpret what I said in that way.

    Okay – explain to me what you meant. I have provided documentary evidence – and also heard Windsor himself say – that if Labor dumps Gillard, the agreement between Labor and the independents will be simply torn up. Rudd would presumably then have to establish confidence on the floor of the house.

    Now, I know you worship the very ground Rudd walks on – but do you seriously think the independents would support Labor bringing down yet another duly elected PM? If you think this is even likely, you are more of a fool than even I take you for. If nothing else, they would be signing their own electoral death warrants. Can you imagine the field day the LNP and the OM would have? They already manage to get the “government in chaos” meme across when we have a very stable and fully functional government. Imagine what they could do with this mess of a scenario!

    Own up, bemused – you just got carried away with excitement because Labor has had a couple of bad polls. It happens.

  6. [And then there is Abbott’s PPL tax. Applied to the companies he’s identified will impact the big 4 banks. Do you think they won’t pass on the cost of the tax to consumers?]

    Its great! Supports women better then Labors and it is actually a tax that works. MRRT lol

    Win Win

  7. The most important thing about recent polls is that they show that polls can swing about a lot.

    While it’s never pleasant to see that your side has gone down a few points, it really is the case that what goes up can just as easily come down. This is especially true at a time when the polls are essentially just measuring “the vibe” (to the extent that they measure much at all).

    The other point is that we don’t really have any measure of the accuracy of polls this far out from an election. The only time there is independent verification is literally on the eve of the election. There is no transparency from the polling companies – to provide that they would have to publish all the individual responses and their weighting algorithms at least (and that still leaves out a lot of factors in the actual data gathering exercise).

    I know there is an argument that the existence of a number of polls showing similar results is some sort of “verification” but there could well be a conspiracy between the polling companies. I don’t say there is such a conspiracy but it can’t be completely ruled out, especially given the huge amount of money that can be brought to bear.

  8. Matty D. I know it’s past your bedtime, but.

    ‘As for the NT, as you may or may not know, I am from the NT, and believe me, it is palpable up here’.

    Palpable is good. For Labor.

    Tell me, what has the CLP done in so very a short time, to earn such opprobrium.

  10. The whole planting trees as a carbon sink is just a joke.

    Any land available for planting trees is going to be in marginal areas; dry, susceptible to burning. Any forest that is subject to regular burning is going to store almost no carbon over time.

    It’s a non-solution, but that’s just the kind of solution Tony Abbott likes.

  11. [This little black duck
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 11:55 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel,

    How are your 1 + 1/2?]

    Very well thank you TLBD. Little fella started primary school the other day and my wife is starting to struggle around as we have another baby due in May.

    And how are you faring?

  14. [The most important thing about recent polls is that they show that polls can swing about a lot.]
    Correction:
    [The most important thing about recent polls is that they show that polls can swing about a lot are paid for.]

  15. And then there’s Abbott’s central pledge: the country can cut revenue while increasing spending and STILL deliver a surplus.

    😆

  16. Matty D@251


    Kevin – agreed. PPM and approval ratings really mean pretty much nothing, but are nevertheless interesting to read.

    At that time the approval ratings had not come through.

    Approval ratings mean a lot and are much more useful than PPM, but more for PMs than LOs.

  17. PM needs to stay on track… come out swinging… Own the MRRT and defend it. She also needs to assert her power by taking the NSW problem in hand and cleaning it out… down to the bare bones if necessary. Stay with it and stay Prime Ministerial… there is no-one tougher in politics than Julia Gillard and she will weather the storm. It is vital her team remain united and swift retribution is metered out to those who do not tow the line. Early days and I back her in.

  19. Fil R:

    I repeat: I am not Schnappi. Never have been, never will be.

    Do you have anything to contribute on issues, or do you just want to continue a running commentary about other commenters? I’m sincerely hoping it’s the former rather than the latter.

  21. Fil R @249

    And then there is Abbott’s PPL tax. Applied to the companies he’s identified will impact the big 4 banks. Do you think they won’t pass on the cost of the tax to consumers?

    Wouldn’t the PPL tax be a wrecking ball through every Australian Industry? Won’t it destroy jobs and send businesses broke? Won’t we be confronted with the sight of mining magnates starving in the streets? Won’t a giant wombat devour Whyalla? Where’s the multimillion dollar disinformation campaign? Are our business leaders asleep at the wheel?

    Maybe some of our right-wingers on this site should be alerting the community to the danger of this iniquitous tax. Or does a different standard apply when ‘Liberals’ do it? Or perhaps major corporations believe it will either be dropped or they can persuade a Liberal government that ‘now’ (any future date your care to nominate) won’t be the right time to introduce it.

  23. things will only improve when the entire question of leadership from labor is eliminated in the next couple months, unfortunately the media are too obsessed with distractions for the time being.

    whilst there will be an initial blow to labor; in all honesty having that question completely out of the picture will be a welcome clear window for the first time. labor needs a good and totally focused clear 6 months before the election for things to pan out nicely . for all that matters rudd would then probably leave the seat vacant without even retiring as the only reason he sits in parliament is for his own ego – we can doubt by every passing day that chances of a by-election will recede

    any retarded diehard rudd supporters can go retire after that for all that matters

  24. [Stay with it and stay Prime Ministerial… there is no-one tougher in politics than Julia Gillard]

    On this i agree, the team behind her im not so sure of.

  27. The MDB needs 4 to 7 gigs of water returned to it, Where it comes from and who has to find other things to do, like grow fruit and veg on reduced water, i don’t much care.

  29. Kevin Bonham@270


    Abbott 42-55 (netsat -13, +16 from last time)
    Gillard 40-56 (netsat -16, +12)

    Changes are over two months but still massive.

    Too large to be very believable, I think. Gillard has had some blow back from issues not related to her (ICAC etc). Her netsat will recover the longer she spends in the public eye.

    Abbott, on the other hand, has to stay out of the public eye, because his netsat goes down whenever people see too much of him.

  31. The only reason an Ex-PM stays in Parliament is that they expect to have another shot at being PM again.

    As a Coalition voter I am really glad the ALP is so stupid as to allow Rudd to stay in Parliament – how’s that working for ya?

  32. 77
    rummel
    [Thats a tad dramatic Puff, Labor will be back in two or three terms. Its not the end of the world!]

    Oh puhleese.

    If Abbott wins, a lot of vulnerable innocent people already doing it hard are going to be seriously hurt, for no good reason or profit to society.

    Don’t try to kid us otherwise.

    Let me give you a clear example:

    Politicians have talked the talk for decades about dealing with the critical and crippling problem of the high (up to 60-65%) effective marginal tax rate impost on those trying to move from social insurance support to paid work. Besides skills and training, and childcare for single parents, it is probably the single biggest hurdle facing that endlessly maligned social strata in improving their lot. But none of those previous governments did anything serious about it until this one, by lifting the tax free threshold from $6000 – 18000 (for all Australians). Abbott has made it very clear he is going to remove it and take it back to the $6000 threshold.

    Just when that door finally opens a crack for the poor, it gets slammed shut in their faces.

    Can you justify the lowest income bracket having to pay 65 cents in the dollar? (Just a reminder that the top marginal rate for the highest income bracket is 45 cents, and my God listen to them hyper-whinge to infinity if they even suspect they may have to pay a freaking cent more.)

    Education and training, a boost to minimum income, the NBN, and seriously reducing the effective marginal tax rate, are huge critical boosts to the capacity of the low paid to increase economic and social participation.

    Labor have delivered, or are well into the process of delivering, on all four. Abbott plans to simply gut the lot.

    He and his team simply don’t care about the poor and powerless. In actual fact he is going to make it much harder for them to get back on their feet. Coz life is clearly just too easy for them.

    Hope you are okay with that, and the way it came about.

    It is not a game, Rummel, much as you might like it to be. The damage Abbott is very likely to do cannot be easily undone, the opportunities that will be lost will not be easily regained, if at all.

    Wouldn’t assume it won’t affect you personally either, pal, one way or another. We will all pay, some a lot more than others.

  33. things will only improve when the entire question of leadership from labor is eliminated in the next couple months, unfortunately the media are too obsessed with distractions for the time being.

    whilst there will be an initial blow to labor; in all honesty having that question completely out of the picture will be a welcome clear window for the first time. labor needs a good and totally focused clear 6 months before the election for things to pan out nicely . for all that matters rudd would then probably leave the seat vacant without even retiring as the only reason he sits in parliament is for his own ego – we cannot* doubt by every passing day that chances of a by-election will recede

    any retarded diehard rudd supporters can go retire after that for all that matters

  34. [Compact Crank
    Posted Monday, February 18, 2013 at 12:10 am | PERMALINK
    The only reason an Ex-PM stays in Parliament is that they expect to have another shot at being PM again.]

    Or revenge! im not sure which is in play at the moment, maybe both.

  35. [Wouldn’t the PPL tax be a wrecking ball through every Australian Industry? ]

    Of course it would, using Abbott’s logic. Even more so because there is no compensation to households to offset those businesses and industries passing on its cost to consumers.

  36. Confessions re 269

    The link is:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/07/09/newspoll-and-essential-research-56-44-to-coalition-2/?comment_page=46/#comments

    Page 46, Comment 2271 immediately after Garry Sparrow and just before Poroti

    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, July 11, 2012 at 8:43 pm | PERMALINK
    Psephos
    Thank you for 1949.

    Plus one from me as well.

    It is NOT Schnappi it you.

    Would some others please look at the link and references and clarify what they see?

    Thanks

    F

  38. This whole thing is starting to remind me of the implosion of the Australian Democrats.

    Big egos, all with legitimate grievances, who simply can not work with each other.

    The public figure it out pretty quick and start asking: “if they can’t govern themselves how can they govern the country?”. Legislative quality doesn’t matter at that point (the Dems moved 100s of amendments after 2004 – the public simply wasn’t fooled that easily). The pie starts shrinking, causing more fights. The process repeats.

    The Democrats never found a solution and they were not dumb people.

    The ALP has a lot of money and more people but the danger is very real.

  39. [Fil R
    Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
    Well given some responses to the latest poll figures what I do think of are the words of General Melchett in the Blackadder series about the butchery of World War I :

    “If nothing else works, then a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.”]

    I actually prefer the words of Corporal Darling, Melchett’s personal assistant who at the last moment is sent by Melchett over to Black Adder’s squad for the “honour” of going over the top to his death with the others. When he arrives there he says to Blackadder – I wrote a notation in my diary on the way over – it just said “bugger”.

    Seems appropriate to the current situation somehow.

  41. The Preferred Leader and Preferred PM polling really are virtually meaningless – the 2PP is what matters and that relies on FP.

    27 or less and Gillard will be challenged. (Sub 30 might be termed the Death Zone)

  42. 279
    Player One
    [Abbott 42-55 (netsat -13, +16 from last time)
    Gillard 40-56 (netsat -16, +12)

    Changes are over two months but still massive.

    Too large to be very believable, I think.]

    I generally don’t pay much attention to poll-to-poll variation, neither dismissing nor embracing them too much.

    But that huge drop is a little on the large side, especially against Abbott, to be taken without a grain of salt. Need another round or two of those numbers to confirm it.

  43. [This little black duck
    Posted Monday, February 18, 2013 at 12:15 am | PERMALINK
    rummel.

    Scorps and I have you number. Do not try kidding.]

    I would prefer a lunch.

  45. Compact Crank@291


    The Preferred Leader and Preferred PM polling really are virtually meaningless – the 2PP is what matters and that relies on FP.

    27 or less and Gillard will be challenged. (Sub 30 might be termed the Death Zone)

    You just won government of Australia. Congratulations.

  47. Just Me @ 282 The damage Abbott is very likely to do cannot be easily undone

    We’ve yet to undo the damage perpetrated by the Howard Government. Tax concessions to wealtly superannuants cost more than paying them an un-means-tested pension. The private health insurance rebate quickly absorbed into rising health insurance premiums and benefiting mainly medical specialists and shareholders in private clinics / hospitals. Huge amounts paid to wealthy private schools. John Howard didn’t believe in welfore for battlers but welfare for whingers who could be persuaded to vote liberal. And of course Abbott would compound it with his absurd PPL scheme (we all pay for corporate executives parental leave) and likely reinstatements of those parts of middle class welfare that Labor has been able to wind back.

  48. Just Me @ 292

    [ But that huge drop is a little on the large side, especially against Abbott, to be taken without a grain of salt. Need another round or two of those numbers to confirm it. ]

    I agree – these numbers just don’t “smell” right. Another couple of polls will help.

    Also, I liked your post at 282. Too many people here forget that this is not a popularity contest or a factional war. We are talking about the type of future Australia that our kids will grow up in.

    I don’t want my kids growing up in the ultra hard-right fundamentalist and sexist “guided” democracy that Abbott would try and unleash on us. I have two daughters – which is one reason I despise Abbott so much.

  49. The OO with this headline:

    [Big business to pay PM’s $1bn jobs bill]

    Laughable. Who exactly does the OO think will be paying Abbott’s Great Big New PPL Tax?

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