Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  1. Is Roxon leaving because
    – she wants a high court job
    – she was rolled on discrimination legislation
    – she isn’t able to control ASIO
    – her family have been threatened
    – she is pregnant

  3. Alex ‏@xx_Alexandra

    I love this photo! RT @ellinghausen PM @JuliaGillard laughs when Senator Chris Evans says he won’t do a ‘Rob Oakeshott’ pic.twitter.com/MlV5O6rd

  4. I must say, it’s very comforting to have Lyndal Curtis around to tell us what we just saw. She’s very good at watching something and then telling us what it was.

  6. confessions@3397


    For christ’s sake Rudd is gone. He will retire either at, or just after the next election. Sooking about him is just a waste of time.

    And having Rudd back in cabinet is not good for voters. For a start we’d be back to Cabinet leaking like a sieve which is never an indication of stability and unity!

    Get real.

    He is also well placed to assist the Labor cause with his TV gig against Joe Hockey who he will run rings around.

  7. [billie
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 12:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Is Roxon leaving because
    – she wants a high court job
    – she was rolled on discrimination legislation
    – she isn’t able to control ASIO
    – her family have been threatened
    – she is pregnant]

    The Fellowship awards “The Gollum” to billie.

    The Gollum is the award for the most stupid post on PB

    Congratulations!

  12. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 12:15 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/3407

    Calling people stupid now are we?]

    I don’t have time to allocate awards for stupidity for PB posters.

    The Gollum goes to the post, it is not a reflection on the IQ of the poster.

  13. billie@3401


    Is Roxon leaving because
    – she wants a high court job
    – she was rolled on discrimination legislation
    – she isn’t able to control ASIO
    – her family have been threatened
    – she is pregnant

    Hi billie, some interesting speculation there, particularly the first.

    I wasn’t aware she was rolled on the discrimination legislation although some might want to portray it that way. Her department put out a draft for comment and they have received comment which will be taken into account in finalising the Bill to go to parliament.

    I wasn’t aware she had trouble with ASIO.

    No comment on the others.

  17. guytaur@3411


    bemused

    agree Rudd can do a lot of good destroying Hockey on Sunrise more power to him

    And of course he maintains a high profile while waiting to ‘answer the call’ if it ever comes. 😀

  20. I must say, having Lyndal Curtis tell us what just happened reminds me of the way Grand Final telecasts finish, then go to the news, where the lead item is who won the grand final.

    If you were interested you would already know.

  22. @Mod Lib/3418

    Trying to be smart aleck now….

    Let me ask you one, Have you taken one yourself since you considered your the who is dissing everyone else other than you?

  24. Sadly, that is true Gorilla.

    They just had Abbott from Bundaberg. He expressed concern that the Government be stable, because we yearn for it. Then he refused to answer questions and yearned some more. He welcomed the election date, he really did.

    I feel much smarterer after that presser.

  26. [Trying to be smart aleck now….

    Let me ask you one, Have you taken one yourself since you considered your the who is dissing everyone else other than you?]

    Could you put this through Word, correct the grammar and get back to me please?

  27. One way that PMJG could exploit the “equal time” meme is to insist, in the interest of “fairness, balance and full disclosure” that every time a detailed ALP policy is discussed, that the corresponding LNP policy is examined, with identical criteria and in the same detail.

    It’s only fair isn’t it? How else are people to help make an informed choice about the direction of the country?

  29. Perhaps some one could ask the press when it is a good/appropriate time to leave Parliament? Just before an election? Just after – so causing a by-election? Or six months before an election?

  32. I don’t recall the PM being asked about Sheldon’s comments.

    She was asked about Morris Iemma which she replied was a matter for the NSW Branch.

  34. PvO also running this line. You’d think Ministers have to tote all barges and lift all bales on their own, with no staff.
    [Paul Murray ‏@PMOnAir
    PM says Roxon wanted out 1yr ago but waited till the time is right. So, #QLDFloods is the best time to change Min for Emergency Management?]

  38. Someone asked earlier when Abbott would do a frontbencher re-shuffle. My guess is if and when he has the authority that comes with being PM. Until then he has little choice but to live with the current team. Some would say hopefully never.

  39. bemused

    I agree. I think Rudd will do well against Hockey. They’re supposed to be friendly, so I hope it won’t get nasty, just jokey/fighty.

  40. [Paul Murray ‏@PMOnAir
    PM says Roxon wanted out 1yr ago but waited till the time is right. So, #QLDFloods is the best time to change Min for Emergency Management?]
    Go on Nicola. Go up to Bundaberg, fill up one sand bag and do your thing!

  44. SK

    She’s leaving her portfolios, sitting on the back bench until the election. Says she’ll be there to support when needed.

    PvO + Murray doing usual smartalec talk.

  45. Oh come on, DWH. Abbott said himself that he was overruled the the authorities when he was health minister. Now he is the Authority! You remember. They all applauded.

  48. Mod Lib@3428


    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-facing-moral-crisis-says-party-vice-president-tony-sheldon/story-fn59niix-1226567132990

    behind the paywall…

    Not much help.
    But from what I recall of the radio report, I agree with his comments about NSW.
    We need an utterly ruthless purging of the NSW Branch of the ALP and it needs to be seen as such. That is the only hope for a relatively speedy restoration of public confidence.

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