The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.
Some recent political odds and ends:
• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.
• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.
• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.
UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.
The longer Abbott stays as leader, it telling that the coalition are not ready to govern
they do not want an early election
Gorilla – Lyndall doing it again helps the Libs understand.
It needs lots of repetition before they get the idea.
The Nats never understand any of it, no matter how many times it’s explained to them (Barnaby will be packing his bags thinking he’ll be in Swan’s Office on Monday).
I’d imagine Roxon will take some family leave to become a normal mum for awhile.
Anti Tobacco dominated her time as Minsiter for Health and Attorney General and given the rest of the world is marvelling at her achievments in this area; so a prospective job at the UN or as a diplomatic consultant specifically related to reducing tobacco consumption through elsewhere legislation might be where she heads.
lizzie@3439
And I hope Joe’s nasty streak comes out on full public display.
@smh: Does the ABC show too much @stephenfry? The ABC’s @abcmarkscott got a grilling from senators in Tasmania yesterday. http://t.co/fYc5SgtY
[fran kelly @frankellyabc
PM says she doesn’t have any more info on colleagues who plan to leave at the next election…but she didn’t look absolutely confident]
And I love this reply:
[Andrew Elder @awelder
@frankellyabc Whereas Abbott looks confident all the time, especially when talking rubbish.]
9News Australia @9NewsAUS
#Headline: John Kerry has been sworn in as US secretary of state. Read MORE here: http://bit.ly/11qGr6B
Dan Gulberry@3443
I loved it when Lionel Murphy raided the HQ of the dreaded Thought Police.
I agree with what you say, but I am not aware of any public spats between Roxon and ASIO.
So what do we have:
1. An ALP President under allegations of criminal behaviour
2. An ALP Vice President saying of the ALP crisis “It’s a crisis of belief brought on by a lack of moral and political purpose.” and “The memory of what we once stood for has started to fade”
3. An ALP President saying the ALP was “no longer the party I joined”
4. A NSW ALP Minister in jail for paedophilia
5. A NSW ALP federal MP in front of the courts for corruption
6. A NSW ALP powerbroker in front of a corruption commission
7. A NSW ALP Minister handing out sensitive material to ALP mates so that they can make $75 to $100 million profits
8. Two Cabinet Ministers leaving (apparently the best time for Emergency Management is in the middle of an Emergnecy and immediately after Gillard announces the election day)
9. Countless ALP Cabinet Ministers abusing a colleague (and the man they had said just 2 years earlier was the best the ALP could offer for Prime Minister!!!)
Bags being the consultant for the LNP political ads 😀
confessions
Fran Kelly’s dreaming. The PM simply said that you can’t always anticipate someone being bereaved, or getting cancer.
These bloody journos are so keen on a story, they make interpretations that are way off. (Which goes for Lib supporteers, too)
guytaur@3449
Well when is the timing right?
It should have been done months ago I agree, but it cannot be left to fester.
Fran @3427
If Julia did that the squawking & clucking would be audible atop Everest & at the bottom of the sea. Funny, innit, that the media & lnp are exultant about equal time but are going to defend their right to fill that time in different ways. I think it’s obvious that what you suggest is what Gillard’s hoping for, some shred of genuine policy interest from the media. Whether she gets it is not yet known & I’m not hopeful but I applauded her idea from the outset for just this reason. At least she can say she tried.
[bags …]
You’re capable of bagging anything.
@Mod Lib/3459
Go away with that dirt file of yours.
bemused
Yes months ago. Now after election. First few months.
Doing now only adds thing to ML’s list of gloat
Abbott has to look in control but at 52/48 I doubt he is as in control as he was when it was 58/42.
The fact is a lot of inherent authority come with being a newly elected PM. It’s how you use that authority which is crucial. Our last two PM’s have struggled with that although in different ways.
Ooops forgot to include Faulkner and Tanner’s comments in my list!
Just too much material to remember!
Greensborough Growler@3453
Interesting suggestion GG.
How appropriate. 😀
It would drive the Tobacco industry nuts.
Presumably Evans replacement will be determined after the WA election and once the WA parliament resumes.
‘fess
Elder’s claim puts me in mind of that remark attributed to Bertrand Russell
[One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision]
lizzie:
We know cause we were listening. Whereas Fran Kelly obviously wasn’t.
[3421
guytaur
bemused
The call will come. Ambassador or other diplomatic posting]
I can think of few things more perverse than offering KR a diplomatic post. For a start, he would most likely simply refuse and then leak. But more importantly, he has shown his disloyalty again and again. Why reward such conduct? Why negotiate with blackmail, especially as it can never work? KR wants power, not something he would see as a sop.
KR is thirst and will not be happy until slaked. But shaken from the heights, he will dry out until, all-sapped and made flimsy, he is blown away.
confessions@3456
What we really need is a body language expert. Politics should be less about what politicians say and how they explain it, and more about how the way they ‘look’ confirms the reporter’s preconceptions.
@davidwh/3466
I like how you use those 58/42 numbers and completely ignored 60/40.
Labor gained 6 points 2pp alone.
Effects of the Floods are probably not taken in.
[Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will support Queensland Premier Campbell Newman’s calls for more federal funding to flood proof cities if he wins government.
Mr Abbott was in the flood-ravaged central Queensland town of Bundaberg on Saturday to offer support to residents and help clean up the area.]
Joe’s budget black hole keeps getting bigger and bigger.
guytaur@3465
Who cares about her list?
It needs to be done.
@confessions/3475
So if he wins election, only then he will support for federal funding…
That’s Pathetic and low.
I am now looking forward to Parliament. Dreyfuss as AG will have even more authority and attention to get the LNP to STFU on Thomson and respect due process
Zoidlord whether you use 60/40 or 58/42 is irrevelant in the context of my post. I think you are being picky just for the sake of being picky. Really hard to see any real meaning in your post other than an opportunity to be picky.
Aguirre:
I disagree. The press gallery is already filled to the brim with body language and appearance experts. What it desperately needs are journalists.
[Real Solutions Dan @Dan_Gulberry
So, from here on we get 50% negative ALP coverage and 50% positive LNP coverage in the #msm? #balance #auspol]
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 12:43 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/3459
Go away with that dirt file of yours.]
You know things are bad when quoting ALP presidents is some sort of “dirt file” against the ALP!!!!
🙂
zoid:
In other words, it’s a stunt.
briefly@3472
Bullshit!
On Wong contesting for the Senate leadership:
[Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn
RT @lyndalcurtis: @BridgetOFlynn My understanding is she doesn’t. Big job in Finance + young family is enough. Ping @SalPiracha]
@davidwh/3479
uhuh.
@mod lib/3482
Only things bad when you claim it too be bad.
Gee, we have a tag team today.
bemused
[Who cares about her list?]
How long a list of work grievances do you reckon Mod has?
A thousand points? Longer?
Bemused,
Yes I agree that Rudd will dry out and be blown away more like the piece of bullshit he is.
Briefly ought to be less poetic and more accurate with his descriptions.
Mod Lib loves to count things but doesn’t realise that they add up to not very much at all.
Mark Duckett @MarkRDuckett
lets not forget which Government got the trophy for the MOST resignations in office – by far! #auspol pic.twitter.com/3gxz5fpD
Followed by Craig Emerson MP and 4 others
[Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will support Queensland Premier Campbell Newman’s calls for more federal funding to flood proof cities if he wins government. ]
Yes. It will join his list of aspirational policies that nothing can be done about until the debt is paid off. Sample announcement by potential Abbott PM:
“The best way to flood-proof cities is to ease the pressure on families by getting rid of this toxic carbon tax. To do that we need control of the Senate. Until that happens, and the budget is back in control, I’m afraid there’s nothing we can do about it. It’s the Senate’s fault that Queensland is flooding. In the meantime, got a shot of me filling this sandbag.”
Mod Lib@3482
He is denouncing bad elements that have infiltrated the ALP and gained a measure of power.
He is issuing a call to arms against them.
Meanwhile corruption is central to the LNP.
GG…you read me right though….
I wasnt able to watch the presser but two or three people here have described the PM as rattled. This does square with the image I have of JG – always very cool and feisty under fire. Does anyone have an alternative view of how she handled it?
briefly,
You know me. Always helpful with constructive criticism.
CTar1@3487
Ask someone who cares.
confessions@3480
Journalists in the press gallery? And have them show up all the people in there currently? Are you crazy?
i dont think the newspoll data despite favouring the coalition
will help mod lib’s case much
Darn, they were speaking ironically. Gillard was firmly in control.
confessions
I noticed that the PM’s eyes filled with tears when Chris Evans complimented her on strength as leader, as well as in Nicola’s farewell.
She’s had a lot of emotion thrown at her over the floods, etc. and has shown good compassion. Going well.