Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  1. Darn@3494


    I wasnt able to watch the presser but two or three people here have described the PM as rattled. This does square with the image I have of JG – always very cool and feisty under fire. Does anyone have an alternative view of how she handled it?

    Certainly wasn’t rattled.

  2. bemused

    [Bullshit!]

    On this point I think you know I agree.

    Whatever people think of him he’s an Labor ex-PM of the C’wlth.

    Use his good skills and find him a good job.

  3. As usual, the OM sees what it wants to see. Given that, what makes them think they should be in the business of relaying information?

  4. GrampaGeorge ‏@GrampaGeorge6

    “@rtennantwood: 7 LNP & 7 ALP members have announced they will be resigning at election. So why is it “Gillard in turmoil”?” #MSM #auspol ?!

    Followed by Robert Oakeshott MP and 1 other

  7. GG…KR is medieval story waiting to be told…usurped power after a plot, soared to greatness, but too soon, fearing he may lose his hold on power, first faltered and then sought to defend himself at the expense of his then-loyal colleagues…who, fearing both his malice and methods, then deposed him. And since then, he has hung on to his losses – unable to relinquish either his ambitions or his pains…:)

  8. Thanks Aguirre. Very good to hear. I was starting to think I must have drifted into a parallel universe where nothing made sense anymore.

  11. [I wasnt able to watch the presser but two or three people here have described the PM as rattled. This does square with the image I have of JG – always very cool and feisty under fire. Does anyone have an alternative view of how she handled it?]

    Darn – We here thought she was terrific. Emotional re Nicola leaving because they entered Parliament on same day but there was a lot of comraderie and affection between the 3 of them. Right on top answering questions from journos.

    Loved the way they laughed at the morning papers’ description of the ‘shock to PM’ resignations.

  12. briefly,

    I see him more as a cartoon character in a series called South Brisbane. Every episode they “Kill Kevvie” as part of a running gag.

    Do you think it will ever catch on?

  19. [I would love to see an outbreak of balanced coverage where facts and polocy details are all on the table.]

    Pull yourself together BK 🙂

  20. [ Scott Morrison ‏@ScottMorrisonMP
    Great to be back home in the shire for the weekend before parliament resumes. Looks like I’ll be facing up to Immigration Minister number 3.]

    Prat.

  21. [David Speers ‏@David_Speers
    Penny Wong won’t be contesting the Senate leadership. But will contest Deputy Leadership (against Kim Carr at this stage).]

    Hope Wong gets up. Carr is yesterday’s man.

  22. There be a chill wind here up past Bendigo and, to make matters worse, I feel a strong vindaloo coming on …

    Tasks for today:

    Plant the Bok Choi Rika seeds, harvest the walnuts for winter, contact the local bloke who delivers ute loads of stable manure for nix, dredge out the Fowlers Vacola, stainless-steel preserving unit from the second garage in readiness for the quinces and lemons, buy a box of Roma sauce
    tomatoes from the butcher, $14.95. Plus a hunk of local pork to feed the freezer.

    Scoff and share with the dogs many peaches. A good crop this year, small but tasty. Water the nectarines. Unplug the TV.

    Write stuff about the ABC’s appalling bias.

    Oh, and check out the planting time for spuds, Pontiacs, and pumpkins. And leeks. Plenty of parsley, flat leaf.

    And. Letter box the joint until I drop.

  23. briefly – Even if all he does is win his seat (sure, I’d say) and whack Hockey on Sunrise he still deserves taking care of, for mine.

  24. What is the normal/average number of changes (per year, say) in a government and how does this government compare? Has anyone actually counted before pronouncing judgement?

  25. I’ve never been a big fan of the PM’s delivery at press conferences, but I think she is not looking so wooden, and looked anything but rattled. Never a good look when ministers resign before an election, but it went as well as could be hoped. It doesn’t look like NSW before the last election, and hopefully things will stay that way!

  26. Peris,election date,Roxon and Evans – all planned in advance,no leaks,no inkling from Gallery. From what I can glean in Canberra it won’t stop there. JG is governing and playing the long game. The Gallery is focussed on the short game – and losing. Events take told.

  27. Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff
    @pthr9 @randlight @woolkebb didn’t write headline and lead massaged a little.

    Re the article in fairfax today when we expressed surprise at her article

  28. GG… well, he has become a caricature these days, a tv-thing, and a device of LNP/OM jabbering…

    killed off every day, only to bounce back the next? The superball of oz-politics? very funny…bouncy but unpredictable and uncatchable… 🙂

  29. Melissa Parke’s promotion means that Fremantle has now been held by five Labor frontbenchers in a row: Curtin, Beazley, Dawkins, Lawrence, Parke. I can’t think of another seat that comes close to that record.

  30. Is it my imagination, or did the SMH.com webpage headline change? This morning it was calmly stating that there was a change in the front bench, now it is screaming about ‘chaos’.

    I don’t understand why the PM called a press conference about this? Surely she could have just announced a cabinet reshuffle and then Roxon et al could have quietly announced their retirements at the next election a couple of weeks afterwards. No fuss, no bother, no ‘chaos’ headlines…

  31. johnnybridge ‏@johnnybridge2

    .@theAge Click on Cabinet in Chaos lead headline and it morphs into @JessWrightStuff article titled Gillard’s New Front Bench #auspol

  32. Actually, now that I think about it, it would be nice to see an analysis of the life cycle of governments and individual politicians. Are there any around?

  36. [Lyndal Curtis assuring us that wtte “a reshuffle is always a sign of instability”.]

    Unless it’s Abbott doing the reshuffling. In the very unlikely event he ever bothers Lyndal will be telling us all that it is an indciation of the strength and stability of the coalition.

  39. Most of the chooks in the press gallery still don’t realise they just got devoured by a now fully grown Powerfox

    Very nice interaction between PMJG and the retiring A.G.

    And as Nicola said, this government bats very deep. The Australia cricket team was , of course, in chaos when Ian Healy was replaced by … oh, hang on …

  40. liyana – she called the press conference to basically clear up the assertion that this has all happened this week, when in fact it’s been in the works for a while.

    The press gallery didn’t listen though.

  43. Is it just me or is there a decline in the quality of the smh.com.au during weekends? Do the work experience kids do the headlines on Saturday afternoons and Sundays?

  46. Still working on a piece about Essential polls not bouncing enough. Seems they’re either doing something very right or something very wrong, or both.

    This argument by Christian Kerr:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/portents-look-bleak-for-labor-campaign-hopes/story-e6frgd0x-1226566304490

    …is twaddle.

    Yes Menzies went backwards in 1954 but unopposed seats exaggerate his vote loss and it’s a miracle he won that election at all given polling in the leadup. No argument against long campaigns there.

    Yes Menzies went backwards again in 1958 but he was coming off a landslide gained at the opportunistically called 1955 election so again no surprises.

    As for the precedent of September elections – in both the cases of 1934 and 1946 the governments in question were coming off massive wins at the previous poll so a modest loss of seats is completely irrelevant (and in fact a good result). 1914 the Coalition lost because of unfortunate timing. Nothing at all to do with the month of year.

  48. [3513
    confessions

    KR is medieval story waiting to be told

    I’ve often said it’s like a Shakespearean….drama]

    I think there are many clues in the literature…the posing masks of the LOTO for one…

    There is a well-used device in classical drama where females are used to play males or vice versa…which is much like the role-exchanges attempted by the persona of the LOTO, who, finding his Achilles-act to be wearing thin, tried to borrow Athena’s make-up, hoping to make himself more comely. Finding how much he likes dressing up, he has taken to botox and wig-growing.

    Of course, to misquote Sarah Palin, this is all merely the application of lipstick on a (male chauvinist) pig…. 🙂

  50. Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 1:33 pm | PERMALINK
    thanks mari @ 3544

    i will retract my comment about the headline

    Jess is usually pretty good, in direct contrast to M Grattan and J Maley and see dear Phil Coorey is copping it on Twtter at the moment

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