Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  1. Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    ‘Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.’

    1. They have been printing money like billi-o.
    2. The Fed, by way of Bernanke, has indicated that it will keep printing money like billi-o for as long as it takes.
    3. With the effective interest rate at zero, money is free. Why not plonk it in the stock market and see whether you can make a quid on a dead cat bounce?
    4. The alternative places for the money to go are singularly unattractive: housing, industrial development and bonds.

    IMHO, it is not so much irrational exubrance as irrational desperation.

  3. Grattan on The Age website video. Her final thoughts? “Well, I guess we will see what happens with the next round of opinion polls to see what happens”.

    Further evidence that the MSM narrative is 100% poll driven.

    Basically let’s not write about events, and fact, let’s see whether the opinion polls like it, and go from there.

    Absolute hackery.

  5. I did not see Abbott’s presser, but this was on twitter from the Geek

    [You could sense the fear in Abbott’s facial expressions. It was palpable. #auspol]

  9. [Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur? Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.

    There’s no Christian equivalent.]
    Perhaps Good Friday would be the closer analogy.

  10. yes rummel

    how many of those 227 days will abbott be leader

    labor will be hoping all , then its a default win for the gillard government

  12. [149
    Patrick Bateman

    they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.

    I have to say, I think this is wishful thinking.

    The meme will be “longest election campaign EVAR, and it’s all Julia’s fault!”]

    The electorate will not seem half as jaded as the LOTO, who already looks completely shot.

  14. [160
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 5:18 pm | PERMALINK
    yes rummel

    how many of those 227 days will abbott be leader

    labor will be hoping all , then its a default win for the gillard government]

    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after.

  18. Climate Admiral Abbott and Climate Captain Newman will steady the climate ship. No more record floods. No more record heat waves.

    Can’t wait.

  19. rummel
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after.

    ——————————————— ——-
    Thats where i can not argue with you there, i bet you do

  20. [Perhaps Good Friday would be the closer analogy.]

    Good Friday was the day the false Messiah Yeshua ben Yosif got his just deserts. That’s why it’s “good.” Worth a small celebration, but nothing to get excited about.

  22. [rummel
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after.]

    Which part your head or your heart???

  27. psephos
    You are being norty about good friday, I must say. In the olden days, you got longer ceremonies on good friday than on any other day of the calendar. It was excruciating as a kid.
    I used to think it was good friday because when it was over you had a whole year before you had anothery.

  29. 14 September falls between kids’ sporting seasons which is good although there is some danger of one of my peers organising a camping trip, heaven forbid.

    I dont want to be shooting the breeze around a camp fire on election night

  30. rummel@164


    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after.

    A large part of right wing political engagement is about revenge and hubris. Not so much about policy. When it is about policy, it usually goes no further than step 1. “We’ll get rid of such and such, and that’ll stick it up those lefties.” What’s supposed to happen after step 1 is a complete mystery to them. They’ll probably get the hammocks out and log in to PB for a while.

  31. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 5:32 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    A part of me wants Abbott to win just to see the mess in PB the day after

    Would that part be your rectum ? ]

    Thank you Poroti very direct I was too “ladylike” with my comment 😉

  32. ok this has gone on long enough. the papers are counting off losses in NSW and after effects of labor right corruption, there is still a gaping (not closing) gap in polls, and an election is called. it was the right in nsw that installed JG. until the obeid affair i would still give JG a go but it’s too late or just still time to install rudd. what party would risk loss that swallow its pride over events of 2010. rudd will still make difference – at least in queensland and now nsw. it should happen, i stop short of saying it will – but the ethical issue of 2010 is not dead, as key figures that helped install JG are now being paraded as guilty parties in proceedings that will drag on all year. the ruddista

  33. Tony Abbott in that video – ‘The Coalition is ready.. rapid eye blinks…so ready that we have already …blink… launched our Real Solutions … blink… plan.. blink blink .. and we are already campaigning on it. Blink, blink.

    What does that say? This –
    [Increasing Your Rate of Blinking – a clear sign of anxiety. Some people start blinking their eyes really fast (in conjunction with an increased heart rate) when they get nervous. Since most people try to make eye contact, it becomes immediately obvious to others. Be cognizant of your blinking habits when you’re nervous, especially if someone is looking at you from a close proximity.]
    http://www.dailycognition.com/index.php/2009/07/09/25-acts-of-body-language-to-avoid.html

  35. victoria@171


    Karen Middleton Tony Abbott didn’t take any questions. He made a statement & left. It was quite weird

    Honestly, she’s the lead political reporter at SBS, she’s been to dozens of these things. This is a surprise to her? Really?

  37. The penny begins to drop

    [Karen Middleton ‏@KarenMMiddleton
    Tony Abbott didn’t take any questions. He made a statement & left. It was quite weird.]

    I wonder why it took so long.

  40. Dare I suggest the famous ALP/ GRN truce of 2010 be ressurected as the ALP Gillard/ ALP Rudd/ GRN truce for the duration until Sept 14.

    Yes, I was pro-Rudd. Yes, I was pro-the Ruddstoration (but only in its first incarnation as an actual challenge, not the subsequent ones as pure mischief).

    But now the time has come to defeat Abbott. It will take unity. I dont think sniping at Gillard or RUdd (note last two words) aids that cause any.

    This means n leaks against Gillard, and it also means reconciliation: give Rudd what he wants (other than PM) and let him loose on QLD. Put Rudd in the freezer and the ALPs chances of losing skyrocket unacceptably.

    Popularity is not a dirty word, people.

  41. mari

    Did you see my earlier shout for you ? If not, Sept 14th is the date Handel finished the Messiah. So you may have another reason to crank the volume up to 11.

  42. Just on the differences between the US and Australian share markets, when comparing the two you have to remember that Australian companies tend to pay out much higher dividends than US companies, so if you are comparing indices over time you have to allow for that effect (I don’t know how much off hand but I would pull a figure out of my proverbial and say 3-4% per annum once you allow for franking credits).

  44. rummel

    [Can I get a Asian doctor with little fingers to check?]
    Nah,we’ll send round the large scottish chappie that taught OC urology aka “Dr Sausage fingers” 🙂

  45. Psephos
    [Good Friday was the day the false Messiah Yeshua ben Yosif got his just deserts.]
    Very droll

    IIRC (and I may not be), did you not post something here that “Yeshua ben Yosif” did not even exist as a historical figure?

    So this post would mean that you are virtually on the road to Rome 🙂

  46. [Karen Middleton Tony Abbott didn’t take any questions. He made a statement & left. It was quite weird]

    I just tweeted her asking why she thinks that’s weird. He’s been doing it for three years!

  48. @Son of Foro/196

    This time the public sees it! A response to the PM announcement on election needs to be a good one, Abbott fails this requirement.

  49. Today was funny, the political commentariat had come back to life and they did not have a clue what PMJG’s press club speech meant. They are a mob of sheep, by tomorrow they will have figured out their narrative, but today was hilarious. Tossers the lot of em.

  50. leone

    Having just watched the ‘broadband’ video, I picked this up from your link. Tony narrows his eyes frequently in interviews.

    [A slight narrowing of the eyes is an instinctual, universal expression of anger across various species in the animal kingdom (think about the angry expressions of tigers, dogs, etc.). Some people make the mistake of narrowing their eyes during a conversation as a reflex of thinking. Don’t send people the wrong message… don’t narrow your eyes.]

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