Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  1. Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.

  2. UTC ‏@UtcWp

    @sebe @TonyWindsorMP @OakeyMP The FTTH #NBN was Nationals Plan, but abandoned it when lost election
    Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP

  3. George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    So the Greens now “calling on PM to have fixed three year terms”. Ok, all good, but focus on your party, not the ALP

  4. Does anyone have a link to the Abbott presser…er…runner please? I can only find the transcript, which Ia ms sure only tells half the story.

  6. The Americans are very good at committees. There are thousands of camels wandering around there thinking they are horses.

  7. @abc730: With the Sept 14 election date set, @CUhlmann interviews @SwannyDPM & we hear fm Geoff Gallop & Amanda Vanstone, on #abc730 tonight. #auspol

  8. Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur?

    Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.

  9. It’s interesting that Barton is seen as a safe seat even in hard times for Labor in NSW.

    Back in 1951, Labor deputy leader ‘Doc’ Evatt held on to Barton by just 243 votes against war heroine Nancy Wake. Evatt took over the Labor leadership when Ben Chifley died a couple of months later.

  10. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics

    Elections are destabilising! Will some one rid us of these patronaged plonkers http://bit.ly/128uaUd

    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    The media are “analysing” the election date and announcement. The MSM is really very brilliant in this country

  11. [Now, that all happens in a normal election, when people have had three weeks’ warning.

    I would suggest that knowing nine months in advance makes it even easier than it would be normally.]
    So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.

  12. Diocenes
    [Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.]
    Haven’t done the figures in detail but the $AU is now worth much more and the $US much less, so I suspect that this explains most or all of the difference.

  13. Patrick

    There would only be one AFL match on that Saturday rather than the usual 8. This will actually minimize any disruption to the footy public.

  14. “@ABCNews24: Tonight on #TheDrum: What do you think of Julia #Gillard’s decision to announce an election date early? #ausvotes #auspol”

  15. [As for killing off leadership speculation in either the ALP or the Liberal Party, let it be remembered that Bob Hawke successfully challenged Bill Hayden as Malcolm Fraser ws on his way to the G-G to seek a dissoultion.]

    That’s true, but in 1983 Hawke was the most popular man in Australia and had been for a decade. He was an absolute rolled-gold cert to beat Fraser, which was why Fraser was rushing to an early election while Hayden was still leader. Making Hawke leader was a no-brainer and the only reason it hadn’t been done earlier was that Caucus members resented his popularity. Bob Hawkes don’t come along very often, and there certainly isn’t one to be had in either party at present. Dumping either Gillard or Abbott this close to the election would be an act of desperation, not of confidence.

  16. Patrick bateman

    You mentioned footy finals earlier. As per your eg say West Coast play Adelaide. Game will take place in one of those cities. Crowd would total at best 40,000. How many of those would be from interstate? Care to hazard a guess

  17. [The media are “analysing” the election date and announcement.]
    Navel fluff is currently the first and only object of the media’s microscope.

  18. Shellbell – thanks for pointing this out

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2013/4859/
    [L-NP 50.5% WITH SMALL LEAD OVER ALP 49.5%
    AS PRIME MINISTER GILLARD CALLS ELECTION FOR SEPTEMBER

    Finding No. 4859 – This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 19/20 & 26/27, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,630 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.: January 30, 2013]

    If you scroll right down you can find the “last election TPP, which is…

    ALP 50.5 – LNP 49.5

    For a rough as guts ready reckoner, add 2 points to the LNP to account for ALP bias in the method, and its…

    ALP 48.5 – LNP 51.5

    However, I don’t really consider face to face reliable. Still, that’s around the bludgertrack average.

  19. @Patrick Bateman

    [So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.]

    One thing for this election, it will test that conventional wisdom about footy finals, if JG wins it will seriously challenge the assumption about clashes, and if it is a rainy day even better.

    Just too bad it wasn’t held during the school holidays as well.

  22. Actually there would probably normally be four on a Saturday.

    The finals match on the second Saturday is usually at night so there really is minimal clash with the election.

  23. Patrick Bateman
    [I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.]
    I suspect that, like Yom Kippur, this actually directly affects very few people. The number who actually travel interstate for anything other than a grand final would be very small in any individual electorate. I think it’s a bit of an urban myth. Things like school holidays would actually be a fair bit more significant.

  24. [Crowd would total at best 40,000. How many of those would be from interstate? Care to hazard a guess]

    Actually AFL semi finals get anywhere from 50-90k crowds. With, say, West Coast I’d guess something like a crowd of 60k with, say, 10k travelling some distance to get there. So maybe not huge numbers after all.

  27. [ Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs]

    Would also depend on which index we are comparing the All Ords is a bit more comprehensive in terms of industry mix than the DJ

  29. [Is there a reason a Jew can’t vote on Yom Kippur? Christians could still vote of there was an election on Easter Sunday, although it would be a bit annoying.]

    There’s no Christian equivalent. Jewish religious holidays are like the Sabbath – no work of any kind can be performed, which includes voting. Yom Kippur, the day of atonement, is the most important religious holiday of the year for observant Jews. They will spent most of the day in the synagogue atoning for their sins. Even relatively secular Jews observe Yom Kippur.

  30. [105
    sprocket_

    Looks like Gary Morgan has got his wacky spreadsheet formulae fixed.

    on last elections preferences;

    ALP 50.5
    LNP 49.5

    a tick the other way on respndent allocated.

    Others on 13 looking fat, with LNP primamry down to 39, a whopping 3.5 pts below 2010 election.]

    Ah, social affiliation, the voter-motor…..Fewer and fewer of the polled want to say (even in an undertone) that they will vote for the LOTO.

    The shame, the humiliation and the ridicule that will fall upon the shoulders of those who support that spittle-pot, the LOTO. I venture to say that 39% is actually less than the LNP “rusted-on”.

    Voters want to get as far away from the LOTO as possible for reasons of social hygiene.

  34. Patrick Bateman@111


    Now, that all happens in a normal election, when people have had three weeks’ warning.

    I would suggest that knowing nine months in advance makes it even easier than it would be normally.


    So you’re suggesting that major sporting/cultural events don’t have an impact?

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to what people think about this. I thought the accepted wisdom was that where possible you avoid such clashes.

    Ok, if you’re serious, let’s deal with this one at a time:

    1. Sporting Events: Let’s not get too excited about semi-finals. In the AFL at least, these matches take place between teams who don’t even make the Grand Final. They’re played at night, and the home team gets the lions share of the attendance figures. One of them is played on the Friday night, which leaves fans of those teams a full day to vote. The other is played on the Saturday night, after booths close. So – if the match involves an interstate team – maybe 5-6K people are affected, tops.

    2. Cultural Events: The Jewish community has given the election date the thumbs-up. End of that story.

    An election is an election. It’s a massive event. If the timing of it has to be restricted because of 10-15 thousand potential footy/rugby followers (depending on who is playing on the night), this nation is in a parlous state.

  35. The MF2F could be reasonably read as 51.5 or 52 for Coalition accounting for house effect. The benchmarking on respondent-allocated has been more like 2.5 than 2 points lately but over the full term the benchmarking on last-election has been a bit less than 1 point.

    Anyway taken with the Essential which was still at 54 meaning 53 this week’s regular-series polls contribute nothing to the trend and we are still at about 52.5. (*and resists the temptation to add “and probably will be for life.”*)

  38. A good habit for some of you here would be to go through the mental exercise of imagining the post you are reading being put to you in a genuine and non-partisan way by someone you respect before responding.

  39. I don’t think the election announcement is a “master stroke” or a poll booster, nor do I think it’s terrible. It’s just a date. It’s good in the sense that we have certainty and that people have plenty of time to get their affairs in order (that includes organising some alternative form of voting if they are out of town that weekend.)

    I know the usual hacks are trying to build this up as an attempt to score politically, so when the polls don’t show a bump, they can call this a blunder, but it’s not. It’s just an attempt to give clarity on the election timing (that is, yes, motivated by Labor wanting as many voters properly registered as possible, especially younger voters.)

  40. [EVERYBODY WHO DISAGREES WITH ME IS A GILLARD CHEERLEADER!!1!]
    If you’re referring to my earlier comment, that was a response to being called a “contrarian”, which in turn was in the context of me asking a question in the middle of a circle-jerk about what a masterstroke the timing of the election is.

    FWIW I think the timing isn’t bad, but it does rob the government of flexibility. I am curious to know what the plan is with the apparent bad news for whinging self-reporting battlers (middle class welfare cuts) and the fixed election date. Presumably to get the cuts out the way ASAP and move on – but if they kick in from 1 July then they’ll just be biting in September.

  42. [West Coast and Adelaide do not have a ground that holds more than 40,000 people for starters.]
    Actually Footy Park in Adelaide holds 50k, Subiaco holds 44k. Not that it matters.

  44. Patrick Bateman@138


    A good habit for some of you here would be to go through the mental exercise of imagining the post you are reading being put to you in a genuine and non-partisan way by someone you respect before responding.

    A good way to get your heart broken in my experience.

    With a lot of posts on this site, trying to read them as if they’re genuine could short-circuit your brain.

  45. Diogenes@101


    Can anyone explain why our stock market is still 25% lower than before the GFC yet Americas has reached new highs?

    Our economy is doing much better than theirs.

    Because of QE1, QE2, QE3 and Operation Twist. (Google them)

    Also the depreciation of the US Dollar AND many of the major US Companies have large chunks of their income outside the US and in countries doing OK.

    The US is using the classic way to escape their debts, ie depreciation of the currency and inflation.

    Also in due course the US Government Bonds the FED has ‘bought’ with newly invented money will just be setoff against the actual Government debt, so that much of the US Debt will just be cancelled and go away.

    Its just a matter of time, then more inflation and a still lower currency which is what they want – then you will see the famous ‘J’ Curve in action. They are already saying they are going ‘to destroy the US Dollar’.

    Wall Street will say however that its all because the masters of the universe are back in action again.

    But our market is now basically going vertical – known as a blowoff top. It has to consolidate – go sidewise soon or it will drop.

    Sell in May and go away has worked like a charm in the last couple of years as well….

  46. PMJG has now recruited the MSM. whether they like it or not, now they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.

    It’s one thing for the LOTO to come ill-prepared to off-season practice bouts. It’s entirely another for him to come untrained and out of uniform to a First Grade Match.

    He will have acid poured on him every day from now until September 14. About time.

  47. Off topic, but what a fantastic coup for Leigh Sales to get that final Town Hall meeting gig with Hillary Clinton. A real feather in her cap.

  48. One thing that is very telling about this announcement, I must say, is that it will be a one month election in the middle of football season.

    In other words, it looks like they’re banking on “better the devil you know” voter apathy.

  49. [they WILL have to press the LOTO for answers; they WILL report his evasions and his double-talking.]
    I have to say, I think this is wishful thinking.

    The meme will be “longest election campaign EVAR, and it’s all Julia’s fault!”

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