Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  2. Well this is awkward timing for Abbott. What will become of his mini campaign? Will it expand and pop in September, or contract and shrivel in February?

  3. Thanks for the Morgan link:

    In late January support for the L-NP is 50.5% (down 1.5% since January 5/6 & 12/13, 2013) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends January 19/20 & 26/27, 2013.

  4. meher baba@41


    bemused@5 said:

    “Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year.”

    Only because he hasn’t had the numbers, Bemused. If you think that he gave up on the idea after March last year, you should seriously consider changing your nom de guerre from “bemused” to “deluded”.

    No, I am sure he would still like to lead, but I think he can count and is just leaving it in the hands of Caucus to make a move if things go bad.

    As you pointed out, with a run of bad polls could be terminal for Gillard and then it is all opened up.

  6. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics

    Not sure if you want to make the election about bulldozers when there’s a bloke called BobKat hanging around

  7. George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Pyne is on ABC24 telling us nothing and frothing at the mouth over nothing. Complete and utter dickhead. Wasting our time ABC

  9. George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Pyne: we’re allowed not to release policies & costings cause we are the Opp. The Gov isn’t allowed to do that #fuckwit

  11. I missed Abbott’s presser. Did he bring his daughter?

    I take it he did the “Who can you trust?” line. I remember Howard dropping that one on us very clearly. Trust was a big issue for him at the time in the wake of the Iraq war/WMDs, Children Overboard and I think the brewing Wheat scandal. He took the ‘trust’ issue and narrowed it down to the economy – “Who do you trust to manage the economy.” The minute I heard it I knew Latham was a goner. Economy was a massive strength for Howard and he could control the narrative after 8 years in the job.

    Abbott’s got no credibility on trust. He’s got nothing to back it up, and he walks out on press conferences without taking questions. It’s a stupid line to take. I would have thought he was hoping the electorate would take a punt on him even though he was evasive and shifty. Putting that issue up front is crazy.

  13. Alright I wasn’t convinced about this move but am beginning to warm to this – JG will always win at the long game and this is the longest game ever. Maximum opportunity for TA to FU. Given he runs away at every presser he can’t keep it up for 9 months.

    2004 Howard slogan – just shows how bereft of ideas is the LNP, anyhow that election worked well enough for the Government at the time, so happy for TA to take the opposition’s role.

  14. “@bsymonsb: Abbott: “Who do you trust to secure our borders?” Debate on immigration about to get uglier. If that’s possible. #auspol”

  17. Let’s hope this is not another bold move – a few days after the Nova Peris decision – that Julia lives to regret.

    As for killing off leadership speculation in either the ALP or the Liberal Party, let it be remembered that Bob Hawke successfully challenged Bill Hayden as Malcolm Fraser ws on his way to the G-G to seek a dissoultion.

  19. Remember this the next time you hear an LNP type whining about the cost of living and how the nasty Labor government is to blame.

    [
    The politicians keep saying working families are doing it tough, that we’re all under terrible cost-of-living pressures, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics crunched the numbers and found employees overall saw the average cost of the things they buy rise by just 1.1 per cent.

    While the consumer price index showed a rise of 2.2 per cent in 2012, a separate living cost index for employees rose by only half that. Yes, utilities shot up, but interest rates fell – and interest rates aren’t included in the CPI.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/barely-any-inflation–if-youre-an-employee-20130130-2dkba.html#ixzz2JQtZfbYJ

  20. Well, if Hope, Rewards and Opportunity doesn’t work for Tony then he can always pray for some Faith, Hope and Charity. He just might need it.

  21. “Who do you trust?”

    From the certified least trusted politician in Australia?

    Cranes on city skylines again? Oh please…

    And then he pisses off?

  23. @Meguire Bob

    “the only way the coalition can stop a big majority defeat is a new leader”

    I can see that happening the coalition have a great track record replacing failing leaders heading for certain defeat.

  27. Meher Baba. Yes, good analysis. In other words, a momentum towards the inevitable. I suspect though that this is different to NSW.

    I suspect what we will see is an itial drift in the polls to the Coalition. But slowly they will come back as the thin veneer of bullshit is peeled away. But they will only come back if the Govt plays smart and hard.

  29. Re: Barton
    [Support is growing in NSW Labor circles for former premier Morris Iemma to stand for the federal seat of Barton, which will be vacated at the next election due to the retirement of Robert McClelland.

    Some in the NSW Labor branch have reservations about another state Labor figure joining the Gillard government, but federal MPs on Wednesday expressed their support for such a move.

    Ed Husic, federal member for the western Sydney seat of Chifley, tweeted: “And if Morris Iemma puts his hand up for preselection he would be a terrific addition to Fed Labor team.”

    Schools Minister and member for the Sydney electorate of Kingsford-Smith, Peter Garrett, endorsed Mr Iemma as a “high-quality candidate’’, and former NSW premier and current Foreign Minister Bob Carr also called on Mr Iemma to make the move.

    People close to Mr Iemma say he is unlikely to run but has not entirely ruled it out, as he is also balancing family concerns and a recent bout of ill health.

    The Right faction controls the seat and the pre-selection will be chosen by a ballot of the rank-and-file. Multiple sources say if Mr Iemma runs, he will win.]
    http://afr.com/p/national/labor_mps_back_iemma_for_mcclelland_zlBWoWUepe7rLtdg7P94YL

  30. [Howard Slogan “who do you trust”]
    I thought they went to good schools and universties?

    It’s ‘WHOM do you trust?’, dickheads.

  31. Now everything the LOTO does will be refracted through the lens of a real election. He will be seen for the empty, racket-making pot that he is.

  36. Ok, I’ve seen Abbott’s presser now. I’ve already forgotten which things we were meant to trust who on. So they’re going to have to work on that line. It sounded suspiciously like he tacked a couple of opening lines on a speech he’s already hawking about for the Mini-Campaign.

    No mention of the election timing. No mention of a timetable for unrolling campaign promises. No idea really of how they think the campaign will run. Nothing he couldn’t have said this morning before Gillard’s announcement. And, quiet obviously, no idea what he’s supposed to say in response to the announcement, seeing as he walked away in the face of a barrage of questions.

    They’ll be pulling an all-nighter at Liberal HQ, trying to coordinate a strategy for the next couple of days.

  38. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    ASX up another 0.2% today. The stealth rally rolls on. Even 0.2% is worth just under $3 billion for the mkt cap of the ASX

  41. TT
    What makes you think that? Because the biggest windbags are blowing the loudest trumpets?

    Let us see how this pans out electorally. The quiet ones may disagree with you.

  43. One thing for sure, Gillard blew momentum out of the Libs faux election practice campaign. Clearly Abbott, Pyne and Hockey thought they’d get easy coverage with a few platitudes. Now they’ve been forced back to real politics and they certainly seem unprepared.

  44. Psephos@48


    You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.


    And you can remove your seditious Rudd avatar. Until you do, I don’t believe your protestations of innocense on this subject.

    What an idiotic comment.
    What do you find objectionable in the photo of a former Prime Minister and current MHR?
    Yes, I still think he would do a better job. So what?

  47. Lynchpin@77

    I suspect what we will see is an itial drift in the polls to the Coalition. But slowly they will come back as the thin veneer of bullshit is peeled away. But they will only come back if the Govt plays smart and hard.

    I see no reason why there should be an initial drift to the Coalition. Nothing about this gives them any momentum. And they’re giving every impression of being caught on the hop.

    Life is just one long campaign these days. I’d be surprised if people notice any difference after the first day.

  48. sortius ‏@sortius

    “Members of the [Jewish] community will simply pre or postal vote.” ruhroh, LNP’s dog whistle on the election date is dead #auspol #ausvotes

  49. If Abbott goes on about trust this video of Red Kerry and Abbott should be on high rotation.

    [Tony Abbott and the Gospel Truth

    Red Kerry : What you haven’t explained is how you can make one promise in one month and then completely change it the next

    Abbott: Well, well ack ack ack ack ack (there may have been more ack’s 🙂 ) again Kerry um …]

    and so it goes until he makes his “gospel truth” remarks.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eai3eKPEV5I

    [
    Read my lying lips: Abbott admits you can’t believe everything he says]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/read-my-lying-lips-abbott-admits-you-cant-believe-everything-he-says-20100517-v9ge.html#ixzz2JQvzUPYr

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