Welcome back. While we were away:
• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.
• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.
• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.
[Seems rather strange, spilling your guts about a deeply personal issue totally ignoring the partner in your life.
Instead she chose to use this issue as an attempt to soften Rabbott’s image.]
Dee – and expected that women would not see through it all! Silly woman. Perhaps Andrew Elder is right when he surmises that Credlin is getting ready to jump ship for the sake of her reputation.
I hope by the end of 2013 that nobody in the LNP will think much of her reputation with Mr NoNoNo.
BH
If that’s the case it’s not going to go down well with the ‘deliberately barren’ Julie Bishop.
Dee
I found it very odd that all the guff about Credlin and her IVF treatment and Tony’s fridge contained only the briefest mention of her husband. Samantha Maiden’s article did not mention him at all. Considering his powerful position in the Liberal Party that’s very, very odd.
Poroti
I thought so too
Happy New Year all.
It seems ‘Can’t Do’ Newman is not the only State/Territory Govt who is going feral and annoying the locals. This from the NT today –
[A former CLP campaign manager has resigned from the party, joining protests against the Mills Government budget changes and predicting a leadership challenge.
Professor Don Fuller managed Francis Xavier’s election campaign last year, leading him to a 16 per cent swing and narrow win in the seat of Arafura.
He told 105.7 Breakfast he has since left the party after unexpected price hikes in Power and Water tariffs and a failed bid to continue working with Mr Xavier after the election.
Professor Fuller proposed to continue working alongside Mr Xavier to assist the first-time politician into the business of Government – a request Mr Xavier and a Tiwi Elder had made.
“It became clear to me and Francis that he was going to need help with the intricacies of Government,” Professor Fuller said.
“This was no career move for me – it was going to be challenging and rewarding at my age and I am an old fart,” he said, adding he even offered to reduce his salary by half.
Soon after the election win, Mr Xavier came under attack from the Opposition for promising voters he would push to reintroduce full-strength beer on the Tiwi Islands – something Chief Minister Terry Mills denies having endorsed.
Mr Xavier told ABC News at the time he wanted Tiwi Islanders to have access to alcohol in their communities, rather than travelling to Darwin and spending money there.
“They (Tiwi Islanders) see resources being taken from them to go very rapidly to the mainstream, even though the election was actually won in the bush,” Professor Fuller said.
Speaking at a recent protest rally at Parliament House opposing a 30 per cent hike in power prices, Professor Fuller said The Chief Minister had failed on election promise to reduce the cost of living for Territorians.
“I do see the need for budget expenditure reductions but to do things so suddenly and so sharply without any consultation is the key issue a lot of us are taking issue with,” he said.
“It’s very important these strategies are implemented in a way people can deal with.
“Politics requires more than just digging in there…it requires an ability to negotiate, consult and unfortunately I don’t think those signs are there.”
He predicts the Chief Minister’s leadership will come under challenge.
“I think there was a chance to really demonstrate leadership to bring people together and do things in consultation with the community… people have felt let down and felt deceived and therefore, they’re angry.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/01/07/3665161.htm#.UOoSAIndzkM.twitter
This just might bring the seat federal seat of Soloman seriously into play for the ALP?
Happy New Year all.
It seems ‘Can’t Do’ Newman is not the only State/Territory Govt who is going feral and annoying the locals. This from the NT today –
[A former CLP campaign manager has resigned from the party, joining protests against the Mills Government budget changes and predicting a leadership challenge.
Professor Don Fuller managed Francis Xavier’s election campaign last year, leading him to a 16 per cent swing and narrow win in the seat of Arafura.
He told 105.7 Breakfast he has since left the party after unexpected price hikes in Power and Water tariffs and a failed bid to continue working with Mr Xavier after the election.
Professor Fuller proposed to continue working alongside Mr Xavier to assist the first-time politician into the business of Government – a request Mr Xavier and a Tiwi Elder had made.
“It became clear to me and Francis that he was going to need help with the intricacies of Government,” Professor Fuller said.
“This was no career move for me – it was going to be challenging and rewarding at my age and I am an old fart,” he said, adding he even offered to reduce his salary by half.
Soon after the election win, Mr Xavier came under attack from the Opposition for promising voters he would push to reintroduce full-strength beer on the Tiwi Islands – something Chief Minister Terry Mills denies having endorsed.
Mr Xavier told ABC News at the time he wanted Tiwi Islanders to have access to alcohol in their communities, rather than travelling to Darwin and spending money there.
“They (Tiwi Islanders) see resources being taken from them to go very rapidly to the mainstream, even though the election was actually won in the bush,” Professor Fuller said.
Speaking at a recent protest rally at Parliament House opposing a 30 per cent hike in power prices, Professor Fuller said The Chief Minister had failed on election promise to reduce the cost of living for Territorians.
“I do see the need for budget expenditure reductions but to do things so suddenly and so sharply without any consultation is the key issue a lot of us are taking issue with,” he said.
“It’s very important these strategies are implemented in a way people can deal with.
“Politics requires more than just digging in there…it requires an ability to negotiate, consult and unfortunately I don’t think those signs are there.”
He predicts the Chief Minister’s leadership will come under challenge.
“I think there was a chance to really demonstrate leadership to bring people together and do things in consultation with the community… people have felt let down and felt deceived and therefore, they’re angry.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/01/07/3665161.htm#.UOoSAIndzkM.twitter
This just might bring the seat federal seat of Soloman seriously into play for the ALP?
Sorry about the double post – something weird happened there with the crikey server I suspect.
Uh oh. Cricket gremlins of old have returned!
I think Mumbles was 100% correct in his analysis but I am not sure I agree with his conclusion. The very sobering question all us undecided voters have to ask ourselves when the time comes is “is TA fit to be PM of our country?”.
I am pretty comfortable with my answer to that question.
Seasons greetings to all, hope everyone is fit, well, and raring to go for what promises to be an eventful 2013.
Some interesting recent state Newspolls with Queensland and Victoria being most intriguing.
Campbell Newman, while being a disaster for Queenslanders, is a godsend for the ALP.
Most amusing to see Sam Maidens twitter defense of her puff piece re Abbott/Credlin. I think she came out of it worse than anyone ! 😆
First major polls out this year will be VERY interesting.
davidwh@158
I agree with you and Mumbles.
The bottom line is that TA is JGs best chance for victory. Remove TA and the Govt could face a serious problem.
Davidwh
More and more voters seem to share your thoughts about abbotts fitness for pm
I find it amazing that Abbott remains LOTO.
Surely the faceless conservatives in the backroom realise a different leader along with the conservative media would ensure a massacre of this Govt at the election
Bemused and confessions while I think the PM and her government have their flaws they are not of such proportions as to be a major concern for the country over the next 3-4 years. I can’t say the same about the LOTO.
Basically the L-NP needs the time between now and 2016/2017 to de-Abbottise themselves and make themselves into a true alternative government. I 100% support the de-Abbottisation of the current opposition 🙂
Rex if they replace TA with MT before the election then bemused will need to do a lot of extra hard work on me 🙂
davidwh
Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 12:05 pm | Permalink
I think Mumbles was 100% correct in his analysis but I am not sure I agree with his conclusion.
—————————————————
His article was Completely wrong
News ltd is hoping there are still gullible people around, i think they know they may be on the losing side here
Labor is too close despite news ltd throwing everything at them
Interesting new year theme developing among some media types, that ‘at the next election later in the year, the electorate will definitely be voting for a “change of government”‘.
I heard this view spouted on local radio by some so-called media guru who was asked to ‘predict’ the coming year 2013.
One wonders what the last 2 1/2 years have been about?
My feeling is a ‘Devil you know’ versus a ‘Devil you know and can’t have a bar of’ type of choice will face the electors.
Incumbency is a strong position to fight an election from.
Over the long summer hols I did not get one hint that there were hoards of people out there just busting a gut to get rid of the current Labor government. Certainly no cheering in the streets but then nobody I was in company with had one good word to say about Abbott either.
I suspect it will a be a tough battle and whereas the conservatives had sense of certainty in the outcome some months ago, they no longer feel so sure.
The election is there for Labor to win – not to lose.
News ltd /Abbott coalition looks to be continuing on the same line of the agenda
which labor gave away 4-5 months now
News ltd /abbott coalition still goling on about 2010
which labor moved on from 2010
News ltd/abbott coaliton still have no major policies
Labor has been introducing major policies since 2010 after the election
davidwh@164
I am up to the challenge. 😉
MT is not a bad orator, but he lacks real substance and political judgement. And look who would be lurking behind him… 😯
BH & Leone
This is quite telling from Dan’s site, excerpt from NewsLtd.
[http://thedailyderp.net/2013/01/06/peta-credlin-and-the-streisand-effect/
Credlin would still dearly love to be a mother, but doesn’t think she will try IVF again in an election year.
“It’s more the fact we are in the fight of our lives and you have to be committed. And it takes over your life,” she says.
“And that’s just the nature of it an election year.
“It consumes your life and your partner understands that, and your family understands that. I don’t want to have my attention divided. So I probably wouldn’t.
“I’ve got one job this year and that’s to change the government.]
One can draw their own conclusions from that statement.
[Most amusing to see Sam Maidens twitter defense of her puff piece re Abbott/Credlin. I think she came out of it worse than anyone !]
She couldn’t change the subject fast enough.
None of us can understand the deep “nuance” behind the Abbott words “abortion is the easy way out”, which “(he didn’t actually say that, as it turns out)”, apparently.
What a mess. She could have just admitted she made a blue and no one would have cared.
Good Morning Bludgers. It’s good to see so many here and in such fine form, too.
And thanks to HaveAChat and Gorgeous Dunny for dropping in for a cup of tea. I agree, GD, Isidore is an excellent name.
Dee, I hope you are well. I have blogged some longer thoughts about PC and her grief too, posted as “entrails of a goat” http://furphycrat.com/
[The very sobering question all us undecided voters have to ask ourselves when the time comes is “is TA fit to be PM of our country?”.]
Anyone still asking that question really hasn’t been paying attention.
BH@144
Could be. Coming so soon after the “Tony and Marge Xmas Message” its main smell is of desperation.
Ha! They will fume if the ALP rolls out Kate Ellis for some glossy glam shots and an intimate interview. And she is actually a MINISTER as well, not some objectively not particularly successful adviser to a failing OOPoo leader.
Anyway, Where are those texts from Pyne that i wanted for Xmas!!!
Kate v Peta is a no contest despite Kate’s weird slant on politics.
Briefly
I’m fine thanks!
How about yourself?
From all accounts, Peta Credlin created this monster called Tony Abbott. Now she is trying to tell us he is a pussy cat. Meow, meow, meow
[From all accounts, Peta Credlin created this monster called Tony Abbott. Now she is trying to tell us he is a pussy cat. Meow, meow, meow]
He isn’t a monster he is just a spineless puppet, they didn’t call him the weathervane for nothing and weathervane is the very kindest word one could use for him.
I’m great Dee. I’ve been playing with my children….at the beach, dining out, sharing adventures 🙂
[I also wondered if the Credlin piece was to highlight that a good Liberal Party woman was not ‘deliberately barren’ as Bill Heffernan would say.]
Nah!
Credlin used IVF as the hook to promote Rabbott.
Briefly
[I’m great Dee. I’ve been playing with my children….at the beach, dining out, sharing adventures]
That’s great news Briefly! 🙂
Hey Tree Surgeon, i know you and family are on holiday in Tassie. Hope all of you are safe and well.
Killer Tassie Devil Squad has been called off. All is forgiven, please come home 👿
[Nah! Credlin used IVF as the hook to promote Rabbott.]
Absolutely, and as a tactic it was about as subtle,and as strategic, as a train smash too.
Briefly
😆 😆
[Samantha Maiden invites us to look upon PC as Poly-Woman. First she is Glamazon, which is to say she is some kind of urban publicity marshal who knows an ostentatious milliner. Evidently she is also very tall. And then she is a representative voice of Saudade. She is more than a custodian of power; she is also an object of sorrow and courage; therefore a kind of moral authority, an expression of female potential. She is Sunday’s morning prayer. On her behalf we may offer devotions to Anne, the Patron Saint of Fertility, Jesus’ grandmother. PC is now a spectacle. I just about cannot stand the profanity. Her grief has been milled into costume jewelry. ]
http://furphycrat.com/
Oops! Missed this bit!
😆
[And on her account, the suggestible may be tempted to forget or forgive the secular transgressions, the political apostasies of her creature, Tony Abbott, LOTO. He is for un-learning things, for selective amnesia. He is the barbarian that Isidore resisted. We know this. We know he is a perennial fibster. He is a cross-pollinator when it comes to the truth. Yet there are misty-eyed solicitations. If he is good enough for PC, he must be good enough for us too. TA asks us to waive reason, facts, logic, memory, learning and scholarship. Now he is becoming a fiction. He has become an accessory to the wish for a baby; a charming girl candle, a mercy. Goodness me, it would not surprise were we to learn that TA will begin to menstruate as well, so complete will be his sanctification.]
[The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.]
William in Crikey today. I’m going for 26th October to get the footy finals well and truly over and done with.
Dee I see that we’re wrong in surmising Credlin will jump ship. Thanks for the link. I had meant to read Derp earlier but got caught up in boring housewifery stuff 🙂
Dee
The text you cite @183 and @184 is apt, amusing and well-composed. I wonder what some here would have said had I composed it. 😉
BH, I’m not sure that Credlin is damaged that much from working with Abbott. IMO she can only work with what she’s got, and she’s managed Abbott well
Finns – I forgot that Dio was going to Tassie. Neighbours landed home this morning and escaped fires at Donnally by a few hours they said.
Hope Dio and family are well away from the fire area. So much of the holiday season has been lost for those businesses on the peninsula.
As per the aggregates, the Coalition lead 52 – 48 but the trend is definitely toward the ALP, and they’re closing.
Some rallying points:
1. No Australian Opposition leader who is less popular than the incumbent has ever won a federal election.
2. Of the marginal seats requiring a swing of 3% or less to change hands, the ALP have 10 seats and the Coalition have 16. Therefore, the more the ALP closes … the more vulnerable the Coalition become.
3. If the Coalition places Labor above the Greens on their how-to-vote cards (as they have done in recent state elections) the seats of Melbourne (Bandt 6%) and Denison (Wilkie 1.2%) are there for Labor to reclaim.
4. Tony Windsor (Ind) holds New England by a margin of 21.5% & Rob Oakeshott (Ind) holds Lynne by a margin of 12.7% … both are held against the Nationals and many in that party believe these seats are set to return… trouble is (as William’s post reveals) the Nationals vote in NSW has collapsed from 12.5% to just 6%.
5. While key states NSW and QLD are likely to have conservative state governments for some time, their unpopular austerity measures gives Federal Labor a ‘safety net’ status similar to that which Howard enjoyed during Labor’s majority state reign. The ALP are reportedly eyeing 9 Qld seats as potential gains on the back of the LNP’s slash & burn. Seats to watch: Brisbane (1.1%), Forde (1.6%), Longman (1.9%), Dawson (2.4%) and Bonner (2.8%).
6. According to polling last year the dreaded Carbon Tax is now more popular than the Opposition leader himself and Labor initiatives Gonski, NDIS, NBN, MRRT enjoy majority support even amongst the ‘rusted-ons’. This begs the question ‘what exactly will Coalition supporters be voting for in 2013?’
A) None of the above?
B) An estimated $27b compensation bill for repealing the Carbon tax?
C) Cuts to government spending and likely recession?
D) The loss of 20,000 public servants?
E) A return to a lower tax-free threshold?
7. Beware the OM presenting a false dawn… as was experienced in the US right up to and including election-day results. The truth is a vastly different landscape to the fate accompli the OM would have us believe.
8. A recovery in the iron ore price ($80 per tonne in Oct to $140+ today) – may be just what the May budget needs!
9. Some things to look forward to:
A) Criminal charges re Justice Rares’ Slipper/Ashby judgment and repercussions of LNP collusion.
B) Fallout from Abbot’s support of Mal Brough.
C) Fallout from Abbott and his Shadow Ministry misleading the public on what they knew and the revelation of who is financing Mr Ashby.
D) Fallout from Abbott’s poster girl and wife of close friend Michael Lawler – AWU whistle-blower Kathy Jackson – if/when charges are laid.
E) Fallout from Abbott’s character assassination of Craig Thompson if/when charges are NOT laid.
E) Fallout from Barbara Ramjam’s defamation trial against Mr Kroger and The Australian re Mr Abbott punching a wall.
F) Fallout from John Setka’s defamation trial against Mr Abbott re union thug/home visit comments.
G) Chris Murphy’s tweet re damaging info on Pyne actually amounting to something (hopefully before I die of old age).
10. Other things to look forward to:
A) Opposition Policy & Joe Hockey’s maths.
B) Another rolled gold audit 😀
Andrew – yes, PC has managed Abbott well. I was thinking more about her reputation if he lost the leadership or the election. Make that ‘when he loses the leadership or election”.
BH
Peta has revealed her priorities and who is the ‘most’ important person in her life.
Fran Barlow,
[I wonder what some here would have said had I composed it.]
A well-written, incisive piece.
Gecko, the Labor arsenal is looking very well stocked!
Krugman, as always is a beacon of reason:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/07/opinion/krugman-the-big-fail.html?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=0
Gecko @ 189
Point 4
Its the opposite for Windsor, many believe he will win comfortably,
[I wonder what some here would have said had I composed it. ]
“Your prose style is improving.”
Fran
[The text you cite @183 and @184 is apt, amusing and well-composed. I wonder what some here would have said had I composed it.]
I enjoyed it! 🙂
FB, fiona, thank you for your kindness.
I see TA and PC as very destructive characters, each one, unwittingly, destroying the other. Unfortunately, even in that degraded state, they could still, but hopefully not, win the election.
you, Psephos, are a tease 🙂