Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

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  1. Happy New Year William and it is great that you are back.

    Now that I have see what truly appalling moderation is like, I will never complain about yours again. 😀

  2. Hi everyone!

    For those who missed my spam over the holidays, there wasn’t that much of it, but:

    Tasmanian State Election Patterns since 1989. Ridiculously wonky and graph-infested post.

    Uneven Swing to Liberals in Tasmanian State Polling.
    Sequel to above showing that in Tas state polling Labor is polling much better than elsewhere in Franklin but worse than the state swing in the northern electorates. Indicates that at polling levels of the last EMRS poll the Liberals could win anything from 13 to 17 seats, so that even under Hare-Clark something like 17-6-2 is unlikely but possible.

    Ten most popular examples of my blather in the brief time since starting up my site.

    2012 Ehrlich Award for Wrong Predictions (not much pseph content in this one)

    Currently working on a piece about whether or not there are foxes in Tasmania!

  3. http://t.co/2AHMFEiY (click google link)
    Australia heads UN sanctions strategy with Action on Iran, Taliban
    by: Sid Maher, Political correspondent
    From: The Australian
    January 07, 2013 12:00AM

    AUSTRALIA has been handed a lead role in managing global sanctions against al-Qa’ida and the Taliban as well as rogue state Iran in one of its first tasks on the UN Security Council.

    Australia has been appointed chair of the Security Council committees that impose and enforce sanctions against al-Qa’ida and the Taliban, as well as the body overseeing the sanctions regime against Iran over its undeclared program to develop nuclear weapons.

  4. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@15

    We each wil1 have our own best way. I prefer a good length of mulga.

    IMHO, the best way is what a number of posters have described doing at work and other places, patiently arguing the case and enlightening people about what the govt has done and what bs is being peddled elsewhere.

    I do it myself when I get a chance.

  5. Happy New Year everyone, hope everyone had a good time.

    William, when the polls for WA are released, is it just for the state election or will there be a break down on the local elections too? Information on the latter would be fantastic.

  6. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 12:23 am | PERMALINK
    it is going to be over 40 degrees in Adelaide tomorrow.]

    We had that in Perth for like the entire week. It was awful!

  7. [Australia heads UN sanctions strategy with Action on Iran, Taliban]
    “Good money managers” must have got through to the UN.

  8. Thanks Puffy!

    I am over this heat. If I had the chance (and money) I’d fly to somewhere cold. I can’t wait for winter.

  9. Welcome back all.
    43 in Sydney on tuesday which surely means the western suburbs will nudge 50!
    Those McMansions will be pumping up the Daikin inverters, that’s for sure.

    What’s the feel for the WA election, labor any chance?

  10. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/food-prices-in-australia-go-down-across-the-board/story-fndo20i0-1226548530083
    [Food prices in Australia are really going down
    John Rolfe, Cost of Living Editor
    News Limited Network
    January 06, 2013 11:00PM

    IN a remarkable reversal, Australian families are now enjoying the fastest-falling food prices in the developed world.

    After unrivalled increases, local food costs declined by 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to the end of September, News Limited analysis of OECD data reveals.]

    [Climate threat to state assets
    January 7, 2013
    Tom Arup

    VITAL public infrastructure in Victoria including hospitals, schools and police stations is under increased threat of damage as climate change intensifies.

    A consultancy report has warned that billions of dollars worth of infrastructure covered by the Victorian Managed Insurance Authority is exposed to the impacts of natural disasters such as bushfires and floods.

    The intensity and frequency of such disasters are forecast to increase as the planet warms. The report says this will threaten infrastructure insured by the authority, potentially exposing the agency – and ultimately taxpayers – to higher recovery and insurance costs.]


    In the last 16 years we have had 14 years with below average rains..last year it was 100 mls below average
    Some say the late arrival(??) of the “wet” up north has left the whole continent dry and scorching with no humidity at all
    I understand that there are fire restriction in the NT …which by now should should have had good rains and the cattle stations along the Gulf are in dire straits

    any comments from other places

  12. This little black duck,

    [ Canberra can only manage 36 and 38 degrees Monday and Tuesday. ]

    Blimey! Time to get the jumpers out again I reckon! 😉

    Happy new Year everyone.

    Off to bed for me too. Catch up with you all tomorrow.

  13. Leroy, much as I am wary of them, it’s the poms in control of coles who are doing much to suppress food inflation in this country.

    They came out here, got a whiff as to how much the multi nationals were ripping us off and proceeded to bleed them dry.
    Kind of bittersweet for me in some ways but good for the consumer.

  14. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/chuck-hagel-picked-for-defense-secretary-85800.html
    [Obama picks Hagel for Pentagon
    By MIKE ALLEN | 1/6/13 8:25 AM EST

    President Barack Obama has settled on Chuck Hagel, a Republican and former U.S. senator from Nebraska, to succeed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, with an announcement expected Monday, Democratic officials tell POLITICO.

    The choice of Hagel, who opposed his party on the Iraq war as a senator, is likely to ignite a raucous confirmation battle, since several Democratic interest groups and prominent Republicans have voiced strong opposition since Hagel’s vetting for the job was reported five weeks ago.]
    here is some more background…
    [Saturday, Dec 29, 2012 4:00 PM UTC
    Why are neocons so down on Chuck Hagel?
    As U.S. foreign policy has evolved, the ex-senator has adjusted his views — and it’s not sitting well with the GOP
    By Matthew Duss, The American Prospect]

  15. Will today be Obama’s Big Day ???

    The major US sites are claiming that today will see Obama nominate ex-Sen Hagel as Defence Sec…in the face of the violent and often hysterical resistance of the Jewish Lobby(which he said “intimidates “Washington)..they have even run TV adds against him
    Is this to be Obama revenge on Netanyahu.??.

    .Netanyahu is in election mode …an election which will bring the religious extremists to a place of great power in Israeli politics
    Obama’s loathing for Netanyahu and his wish to free the US Foreign Policies in the M East from the controls of the zionists may be about to bear fruit

    Hagel,twice decorated Vietnam vet and former (2 terms) Republican Senator and now Prof at Washington Uni has been the subject of a vicious campaign but seems on the verge of victory..
    .although the Jewish Lobby will seek to have the Senate reject him…not likely though…and some like Pat Buchanan hope it is a real fight and will further expose them in the Senate

    This may be a moment of real change in US policy in the M East
    …and the Lobby will be on the outer and facing a Def Sec who has had to bear a stream of vicious claims that he is anti-semitic(typically of course)…but untrue

    Netanyahu may now regret that TV Ad he ran in Florida for the Repubs during the recent elections
    The excellent site below gives more info


  16. Hagel is a tad more pro palestine I believe than the norm.
    Should upset a few in the Israeli lobby.
    Although am pretty sure he did actually vote for the war in Iraq first time around.

  17. Leroy 33…re Hegel
    Just as I posted you confirmed what the blogs have been saying

    This is a historic moment in US politics
    A Def Sec Hegel who has been so critical of Israel and the Jewish Lobby(and was attacked for calling them so..znd not “zionist” Lobby as they demand.).

    Hagel weants Obama to speak to Iram(and visit there) and says there will be no war with Iran…which only Israel wants anyway
    He also wants big cuts in defence spending…a must now…
    and new policies towards the Arab World…and to talk with Hamas and Hezbolllak re Pelestine…notably Gaza!
    the times are a chaging !!

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