Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

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  1. Mod Lib, that Krugman article could have been custom written for you. Some examples:
    [So what can be done? A smaller financial shock, like the dot-com bust at the end of the 1990s, can be met by cutting interest rates. But the crisis of 2008 was far bigger, and even cutting rates all the way to zero wasn’t nearly enough.

    At that point governments needed to step in, spending to support their economies while the private sector regained its balance. And to some extent that did happen: revenue dropped sharply in the slump, but spending actually rose as programs like unemployment insurance expanded and temporary economic stimulus went into effect. Budget deficits rose, but this was actually a good thing, probably the most important reason we didn’t have a full replay of the Great Depression.]
    my emphasis
    [For what the paper concludes is not just that austerity has a depressing effect on weak economies, but that the adverse effect is much stronger than previously believed. The premature turn to austerity, it turns out, was a terrible mistake.

    I’ve seen some reporting describing the paper as an admission from the I.M.F. that it doesn’t know what it’s doing. That misses the point; the fund was actually less enthusiastic about austerity than other major players. To the extent that it says it was wrong, it’s also saying that everyone else (except those skeptical economists) was even more wrong. And it deserves credit for being willing to rethink its position in the light of evidence.

    The really bad news is how few other players are doing the same. European leaders, having created Depression-level suffering in debtor countries without restoring financial confidence, still insist that the answer is even more pain. The current British government, which killed a promising recovery by turning to austerity, completely refuses to consider the possibility that it made a mistake.]
    And you and your merry band of economic cretins would have UK style policies for Australia!

    Good on you mate!!! 😡

  2. [Geoff Pearson ‏@GCobber99
    Remember Reith’s $50,000 Commonwealth PhoneCard fiasco -Slipper $900 over claim on car expenses, guess which one is going to court?]

    Not to mention Abbott’s crusade around the country at taxpayer’s expense telling all kinds of fibs about the economy and carbon pricing.

  3. [Mod Lib, thee were questions asked about your non-appearance at the other blog which shall remain nameless.

    Did they scare you off?]
    Mod Lib was too busy crying.

  4. Bemused re Peaches Hutchison 552
    __________________
    That post on the Eastern Bloc is an early contended…first day.!!..for the silliest post of the year
    what a feat !

  5. Bemused re GLC
    _________
    What Krugman is saying might also apply to the reactions of economists and politicians to the Depression of the 1930ies

  6. deblonay@609


    Bemused re Peaches Hutchison 552
    __________________
    That post on the Eastern Bloc is an early contended…first day.!!..for the silliest post of the year
    what a feat !

    I think Peaches needs to get out of Menzies House more often and learn a little history and politics.

  7. deblonay@611


    Bemused re GLC
    _________
    What Krugman is saying might also apply to the reactions of economists and politicians to the Depression of the 1930ies

    Yes, but some learnt something from that experience.

    It did not need to be partially re-run.

  8. [That post on the Eastern Bloc is an early contended…first day.!!..for the silliest post of the year]

    Nah. Your comment stating Sydney’s predicted temperature tomorrow is its highest ever is what idiots like Andrew Bolt have been feasting on for years.

    Goose, gander etc.

  9. Sprocket

    The Tele has changed the headline to “NSW Liberal MPs’ cap-in-hand cash drive”

    Someone must have noticed. 🙂

  10. Bemused re Menzies House
    ____________
    A strange outfit…for merely suggesting that some of the contributors had a neo-fascist outlook, I was removed and banned over the New Year
    So much for their ” there is room for all in Menzies House ” slogan

  11. William. Whatever. The above. The agendas.

    If this is a foretaste….

    May your short time off have geared you. Annus Horribilus, I believe someone said.

    New Year Best Wishes.

    Kind regards.

  12. [ScienceAlert ‏@ScienceAlert
    The temperature map across Australia for tomorrow, wow. Stay safe Aussie followers! http://twitpic.com/bt8mdt ]

    What irritates me about this and general OM reportage is that Perth can swelter through a week + heatwave of temps above 40 degrees every day. Yet Sydney cops one day of 40+ degrees and suddenly it’s heatwave projections at 20 paces from any number of quarters.

    It’s summer! And it’s AGW!

  13. confessions@616


    That post on the Eastern Bloc is an early contended…first day.!!..for the silliest post of the year


    Nah. Your comment stating Sydney’s predicted temperature tomorrow is its highest ever is what idiots like Andrew Bolt have been feasting on for years.

    Goose, gander etc.

    Didn’t take you long to get back to your old tricks of verballing people and trolling.

    deblonay @ 543 said: “If it peaks at 43 deg. or above ,will this be a record temp for Sydney ?”

    Surely you know this was a question and not a statement?

    There is another blog better suited to your behaviour.

  14. Confessions You have misquoted my post 543
    ___________________________
    I “asked:” if a Sydney temp of 43 would be record?
    I did NOT say it would be

    Go back and see your error

  15. deblonay:

    Not verballing at all, just an opinion.

    As per your smarmy, pat-on-the-back put down of another commenter.

    Live it, learn it.

  16. [Trolling is the right word for Confessions comment]

    Actually calling a commenter ‘stupid’ and guffawing with your monkey idiot support squad cheering on is itself trolling.

    You can’t define why Peaches’ comment is ‘stupid’, so instead choose to have a go at me for rating your response to him/her in similar fashion to yours.

    Despite disagreeing with Psephos on the whole Israel-Palestine thing, I’m starting to have distinct sympathies for his views simply because there is apparently nobody on the so-called ‘left’ who is capable of refuting his arguments (and those of his supporters) in logical, rational, meaningful manner.

    If you see yourself as holding superior views to Psephos and his supporters, then make those arguments. If you just want to come here to sneer and slap the backs of your idiot monkey cheer squad the be prepared to face ridicule.

  17. confessions @ 630

    Quit while you are behind.

    You were merely accused of verbaling and misquoting.

    Such blatant mis-representation of what deblonay ASKED about the Sydney forecast temperature would be characterised by some less charitable as a lie.

  18. [632
    bemused

    Goodnight all. Things are now cool enough to sleep in reasonable comfort.]

    If only. It’s still a sauna here.

  19. [William, that is why I did not name it.
    So even allusions are out. OK.]
    Are you referring to Bullshit Bill’s Blog of Batshit Insanity?

  20. Confessions 628.. not an opinion of yours at all
    _________
    You misquoted me and then derided me knowing that your own statement was untrue
    \Tolling by any standards

  21. Confessions
    Both I and Bemused had thought that Peaches Hutchison equating the responses of the Left to Israel with the collapse of the Soviet Union were too silly be the subject of debate
    most people would think as I and Bemused did… quite seperately
    on this occassion

    as to my Sydney query re highest Temp. it was just that…
    a question

    How can you see a question as a statement then deny it…
    be honest you were wrong

  22. Shut up the wingeing, while your behind.

    It is hot as hell pretty well on much of the vast continent.

    Save your money and your decent stuff to donate.

    It will be needed.

  23. Surely before we talk about the poor mum and dad investors that lost money in The Greatest Hoax of the 21st Century If Not The Entire Millenium we actually need evidence of who it was that sold shares and how much money people actually lost.

    If you jump at the first whiff of grapeshot perhaps you shouldn’t be in the sharemarket game.

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