Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

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  2. Peaches Hutchinson@538


    Psephos: Whenever the Left calls Israel a criminal/illegitimate state, you get the feeling that they are still sore over their defeat in the Cold War.

    This is indeed a strange statement that seems to presume that the Labor left somehow equated with the Eastern Soviet Bloc. Bizarre! The non-communist left has a long history and tradition of it’s own.

  6. Just watching ABC coverage of the fires in Tamania. How fecuking stupid are people ? The question is not a slieght against Taswegians . After every single major Australian bushfire there is a line up of people acting as if the fact Australian bush will burn in catastrophic fashion is/was a shock horror surprise. Who could have known ?
    So don’t any NSW PB loungers ignore warnings that tomorrow could see “catastrophic fires” . Get out and get out early.

  8. It’s not exactly the kind of list that ought to impress a leftwinger, or even a left-liberal, Deblonay. I especially love the one about reducing the stockpile of warheads on the basis that they are redundant, now that a smaller number delivered by subs can threaten as crippling a nuclear attack on an enemy as land-based nuclear missiles.

  9. [feeney
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 9:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Psephos

    That information is great. As usual, with your election information, you’ve done a very thorough job.

    I was reading in the Huffington Post, after the election, that the Democratic Party polled over 500,000 more votes than the Republicans in the House of Representatives, yet the Republicans gained the most seats.]

    Make that 1.4 million votes more for Democrats than Republicans in the House.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012

    [Can you comment on whether there might be a touch, just a touch, of gerrymandering in some States?]

    Is the Pope catholic?

  10. poroti:

    Watching it also.

    I live in a rural area, and am constantly amazed at the stupidity and stubborness of fellow landholders who refuse to burn off and/or clear their properties. Just stupid.

  11. deblonay
    Thanks for that link regarding Chuck Hagel. I have just forwarded to a South Australian mate who is very good friends with Hagel. They correspond frequently and I can guarantee that your link will be sent on to Hagel in the morning.

  13. Pseudo-Feeney writes:
    [“That information is great. As usual, with your election information, you’ve done a very thorough job.]

    Thank you. You might remember that the next time you think of subjecting me to your habitual unpleasant abuse.

    [I was reading in the Huffington Post, after the election, that the Democratic Party polled over 500,000 more votes than the Republicans in the House of Representatives, yet the Republicans gained the most seats. Can you comment on whether there might be a touch, just a touch, of gerrymandering in some States?]

    There is gross gerrymandering in a number of states, some of it mandated by the Voting Rights Act, which requires the creation of Black-majority and Hispanic-majority seats, most of it done for party advantage. Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Illinois are the worst. Since the Republicans won control of many state legislatures in 2010, they had control of the 2011 redistricting process in those states. All the states I named have been gerrymandered by Republicans, except Illinois. California now has a non-partisan boundaries commission, and in New York the courts took control of the process, so the maps for those states were quite fair. Florida is also less gerrymandered than it was last time. But the net result was to favour the Republicans. The VRA also benefits the Republicans by scooping up all the Black and Hispanic voters into safe Democrat districts, thus rendering all the surrounding districts lily-white and Republican. This is very noticeable in Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. Texas has 36 districts, of which only two now elect Anglo Democrats, while two elect Black Democrats and eight elect Hispanic Democrats. This has the effect of turning the Democrats into the party of minorities, which suits the Republicans.

  15. Once the Arabs failed to squash Israel in 1948, they had little chance of doing so thereafter. The Arab militaries have not been/are not up to the task for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with the innate “intelligence” of the Arab soldier but rather education, mechanical training, the fact that Arab armies are very political and not competence led etc.

    Israel losing a war (any war) = no more Israel. There would be massive atrocities against the Jews, and even if the actual killings and rapes were “minimal” you can expect that the vast majority of the Jews will be expelled with the clothes on their backs & nothing more. You might see Jews who can prove they are descended from Jews who lived in Palestine prior to 1914 allowed to stay (as very second class citizens and certainly with most valuable property etc expropriated). Of course expect to see senior military officers, politicians (perhaps any members of the Knesset) etc tried as “war criminals”. The Israelis simply won’t let that happen.

  16. confessions

    [
    poroti:

    Watching it also.

    I live in a rural area, and am constantly amazed at the stupidity and stubborness of fellow landholders who refuse to burn off and/or clear their properties. Just stupid.]
    Damn right. As a land holder whose neighbours were burnt out while he escaped totally unharmed after the Toodyay fire said “No fuel,No fire”. He described how before each fire season he cleaned his propery up and cut long grass. Simple sensible measures. Meanwhile the stupid and lazy said it was all Western Power’s fault.

  17. briefly:

    I forgot to bookmark your blog from before. Can you pls post a link here again as I’ve forgotten what it was. A catchy name that escapes me at present.

    Thank you!

  18. I have several friends in Tasmania who are close to the fires…like ’67, they say. All their senses are alive to the blazing: the smell of smoke in the air, the fear of the wind, watching for embers, hoping for a cold change. My friends are coastal. They can escape, but are otherwise surrounded by forest. Very troubling times.

  20. confessions, you are most welcome….

    http://furphycrat.com

    I was taken over by the idea of the furphy, originally the horse-drawn water wagon that served the troops in WWI, and the stories that spread from the drink-station. I added -crat, because so many things are decided by false belief, by superstitions, by furphies that get around… 🙂

    I am doing my best to fly a few furphies of my own.

  21. briefly
    [
    I have several friends in Tasmania who are close to the fires…like ’67, they say]
    At the time as youngun in NZ I remember seeing the most amazing sunsets and the news saying it was due to major fires in Straya. I was totally blown away that fires so far away had such an effect.

  22. poroti, I had not long arrived in WA in ’67. I can remember the incredible heat that Christmas/NY and seeing accounts of the fires. I wondered what kind of inferno my father had brought us to. I had come from the temperate pastures and daily rains of the Waikato. I had no idea that such impossible forces could be endured. 🙂

  25. BK Post 561 re Prof Cole
    _________________
    Cole (Mich. State Uni) is an outstanding figure in his field,speaking Arabic/Persian and is the author of a host of works on the M East and Islam…though he is of course a US academic(from an old US military family and has an Iraqi wife)

    Some years ago an offer of a senior post at …I think …Yale…was met by a furious tirade from The Lobby who rather fear his expertise though he can hardly be seen as anti-semitic from his statements on Israeli affairs.
    though he is a sharp critic of extremists like Netanyahu and the quasi-criminal former F. Minister Libermann
    anyway
    Your friend may read his daily blog” Informed Comment”now which deals with the Middle East and the broader Islamic world
    I will insert the info in a seperate post
    Thanks for your comment

  26. I am glad you like it, confessions. I’ve been having a good time, letting wild ideas run away with discretion. Btw, have you seen C@tmomma?

  27. [First class maps, P. The yankees luv the Democrats, serious aversion to the R’s]

    The Republicans thought they were very clever positioning themselves as the party of White Southern racism. They have largely driven the Democrats out of the South except in Black-majority areas. But the price has been to lose New Ebgland, New York, the Upper Mid-West and the West Coast. So on balance the Republicans have lost on the deal. This shows up most strongly at presidential level, but it will work its way down to the House in time.

  29. I spent a few days trying to learn a bit about twitter. You really need to have something to say, but as a distribution channel it is quite awesome.

  30. Psephos, You’re quite right. The Republicans have hitched their fortunes to a loyal but declining segment of the electorate. They are now anchored to the resentful and the obtuse. I think Nate Silver pointed out that if it were not for mal-districting by Republicans, the Democrats would control the whole structure now.

  31. The problem for the Republicans is that their constituency will not let them leave. The inmates have taken control of the prison.

  35. Should I bother.

    Anyway, apropos some clown posting about forseeable events, yeah, sure, there are a lot.

    But foreseen and unaware, supposed it is, only that, the fire at Forcett was sparked by a smouldering underground tree root. Speculation at this point, but possible. So who do you want to blame?

  36. [I think Nate Silver pointed out that if it were not for mal-districting by Republicans, the Democrats would control the whole structure now.]

    Not sure about that. Sitting members in the House are hard to dislodge because they bring in so much pork once they have a bit of seniority. It took 30 years for the Republicans to take over the House districts in the White South, waiting for each Democrat to retire. Jamie Whitten of Mississippi, for example, was chair of Agriculture and brought in huge barrels of pork for Mississippi farmers. He was unbeatable in his district for 54 years, but when he retired it went Republican. The same thing is now slowly happening to the Republicans in the North East, Upper Mid West and West Coast, but it will take another 20 years before the Democrats win most of those districts.

  37. Apropos, should I bother. Would be nice to know if you noticed.

    547
    crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel and BK

    Reiterate, and I say, re reiterate, from Christmas blog.

    Even more so in the face of many dangerous days,weeks,months.

    Applaud your service and to you and your partners in arms, every hope and care that can be expressed.

    I am aware of the SA danger, it seems potentially even worse in other parts of the country.

    All care to you and yours.

  38. confessions @ 542

    That’s interesting because January 7 was in the back of my mind for something

    Yep, my 24th wedding anniversary. How dja know? lol

  44. Psephos, T think the share of the vote won by Republicans in house contests was well under 50%….could be wrong, but can recall this assertion

  45. [Psephos, T think the share of the vote won by Republicans in house contests was well under 50%….could be wrong, but can recall this assertion]

    These figures are a bit dodgy because there are always a number of districts where the sitting member is opposed only by a Libertarian and polls 90% of the vote.

  47. Either way, the Republicans have a serious generational issue. They have survived so long by getting southern whites to persistently vote against their economic interest. this must exhaust eventually, and the Republicans will have to reach back to the centre of American society

  48. Mod Lib

    [Hope everyone had a relaxing refreshing Festivus.]

    Good that you have shown up, we were just about to start the airing of grievances :).

  49. This is a great article by Paul Krugman in the NYT.
    The Big Fail
    Apart from other things it includes this succinct explanation of a recession or depression.
    [The story, at this point, is fairly straightforward. The financial crisis led, through several channels, to a sharp fall in private spending: residential investment plunged as the housing bubble burst; consumers began saving more as the illusory wealth created by the bubble vanished, while the mortgage debt remained. And this fall in private spending led, inevitably, to a global recession.

    For an economy is not like a household. A family can decide to spend less and try to earn more. But in the economy as a whole, spending and earning go together: my spending is your income; your spending is my income. If everyone tries to slash spending at the same time, incomes will fall — and unemployment will soar.]
    But the main focus is how the response to the GFC was wrong due to the failures of many economists and politicians.

    Well worth reading.

  50. Mod Lib, thee were questions asked about your non-appearance at the other blog which shall remain nameless.

    Did they scare you off?

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