Welcome back. While we were away:
• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.
• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.
• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.
Psephos 196 Wicked.
Meguire Bob @195
[Its the opposite for Windsor, many believe he will win comfortably]
Yes but not the Nationals (as stated). I am certain you are right though… the constituents of New England were clever enough to elect him in the first place and considering what he’s managed to achieve, you’d think he’d be returned in a canter.
PtMD
[So, did anyone pick up some juicy gossip over the holiday break and if so, can you share it with us?]
Yes, and No.
Gecko
Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 2:08 pm | Permalink
Yes but not the Nationals (as stated).
————————————————
Gecko
Lol true
Obama gets set for a major fight with Republicans over Hegel nomination
_____________________
The wait for the announcement of a Hegel nomination for Def. Sec may be almost over
Obama’s strategy has been to allow a debate in the public domain …and a fierce one at that …with the worst of the Jewish Lobby like Kristol and his henceman at The Weekly Standard making a series of vicious attacks on ex-Sen Hegel,and notably on his…true …statement that the Jewish Lobby intimidates many in Washington and has done so for years now
Those days may be over
Obviously the distaste that Obama feels for Netanyahu and his blatant interference in US politics…notably last Nov.. and the need for a
change of policy re the Palestinian issue,has prompted Obama’s moves
He favours face to face discussion wsith Iran and also with Hamas and Hezbollah
Interesting too is the support of people around”The American Comnservatiuve’ and it’s founder Pat Buchanan who have long called for a move away from the completely pro-Israeli policies followed by Washington for so long
and who have supported Obama on this issue…so there is a wide ranmge of support now for Obama on this issue
Buchanan has said he hopes that the Senate hearing will be long drawn out(and bitter!) as it will educate people about the extent of the power of the Jewish Lobby and it’s effects on US policy…and it’s great cost ..in every sense of the phrase ..to the US
This move may split the Repubs as many are in the pay and the trall of the Jewish Lobby
All this as the Israeli prepare to vote in an election which may see a mnassive rise in supoport for the hard-line religious parties in Israel
Bad times for Netanyahu one might think
All the standard accusation of anti-semitism against Hegel…and Obama..won’t help the Lobby now…as these accusations …used so often ..are losing their effect
a time of change in the USA ??
http://www.businessinsider.com/chuck-hagel-nomination-defense-secretary-obama-confirmation-senate-republicans-2013-1
[Yes but not the Nationals (as stated). I am certain you are right though… the constituents of New England were clever enough to elect him in the first place and considering what he’s managed to achieve, you’d think he’d be returned in a canter.]
I think you give voters far too much credit.
William if you are still about where is the juicy detailed WA is going to an election thread!
WWP, I’m saving it for the publication of the WA Newspoll result, which I guess would be coming this evening.
[WWP, I’m saving it for the publication of the WA Newspoll result, which I guess would be coming this evening.]
Excellent I shall have a nap this afternoon and anticipate it eagerly.
For those of you into such matters; I presume it is illegal activity…
[Whitehaven Coal shares dived on Monday after it fell victim to a hoax email by environmental activists that claimed the company’s main lender, ANZ Banking Group, had cancelled a $1.2 billion loan facility for its flagship Maules Creek project in NSW.
A statement on what appeared to be ANZ letterhead issued to media outlets including The Australian Financial Review on Monday said the bank had cancelled its $1.2 billion loan facility to the development, citing market volatility and cost blowouts.
Whitehaven and ANZ both quickly said the media release was a fake, with ANZ saying a green group had manufactured the statement.
Whitehaven’s shares, which fell as much as 8 per cent after the hoax email, had recovered to be 1.28 per cent lower at $3.475 by 1.48pm…
A group called Front Line Action on Coal later on Monday said ANZ had been caught out by the spoof.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/whitehaven_shares_hit_by_hoax_mUDnlQTdMk66aehSvBCWBM
[Obama gets set for a major fight with Republicans over Hegel nomination.]
Now Hegel for Defence Secretary would be interesting.
“The history of the world is none other than the progress of the consciousness of freedom.”
Sadly it’s only Chuck Hagel.
Bemused…re Myki
___________
As a regular user of public transport I find MYKI a less than desiablke alternative to the old Metcard system which was fine
The worst and most scandalous feature is the difficult it poses for toruist and visitors
No system I have ever used in Europe /The USA/ or Asian cities is so difficult
It might be seen as tourist-offensive
One can’t even buy a single trip ticket..or any ticket …on a tram
Last week using a tram in St Kilda Road…I heard a ticket inspector order two bewildered foreign tourists…money in hand…from the tram or face a fine
Even local Vic visitors up for a day in Melb have to by a MYKI cards for $6 then top up(but not on a tram) …no provisions exist for a single day card
Lst year in Singapore we purchased a metro card (free) and as we hadn’t used up full amount when leaving we simply pushed to card into a refund slot and got the balance back
Here if one inserts moiney by “phone “it may take 3 days for that to show up on the card
The system in my view..with it’s vast costs was a big factor in defeating Brumby and will”do” big Ted also
On the eve of the last State Election…the notorious Minister Peter Bachelor…one of the worst of the ALP functionaries gave a classic interview with Hince on 3AW which for sheer arrogrance would take some beating
Listening I was sure then that Brumby would lose…and said so here..and was denounced by the usual suspects
but I was proved right…
The adoption of the Smart Meters was anouther coffin nail inserted by Bachelor….perhaps he was an undercover agent for the Libs ??
very effective if so
Fran Barlow@186
OK, I’ll bite.
If they had been a similar length I would have read them and appreciated.
If they had conveyed the same message but in a long, verbose fashion, I may well have glanced at them to try to pick up the sense of them and scrolled on.
I treat similarly verbose posters the same way.
[I think you give voters far too much credit.]
Haha, is there another choice as to where to apportion it?
[Buchanan has said he hopes that the Senate hearing will be long drawn out(and bitter!) as it will educate people about the extent of the power of the Jewish Lobby and it’s effects on US policy…and it’s great cost ..in every sense of the phrase ..to the US]
Perhaps it will educate them on the correct use of the apostrophe as well, but I’m not optimistic about that. But I’m always comforted when anti-Semitism and illiteracy come as a package, as here. Ignorance rarely travels alone.
Hope everybody here had a good Xmas and has a good 2013. 🙂
I see Our Dear LOTO is still trying desperately to scrape his approval rating among women from off the floor.
Fat chance.
Certainly looks like Credlin is preparing her exit strategy, as would I under the same circumstances.
The Hegel affair has show the way in which the usual cries of anti-semitism are used to discredit critics of the Jewish Lobby and of the terrible Israeli treatment of the Palestinians… so regularly ignored and defended by Israeli supporters ..and show that these cries are no longer as effective as in the past.
Perhaps we should thank Netanyahu for the work he has done to open up a hitherto forbidden debate in the USA..of which I am sure there will be more in the days ahead.
deblonay@212
Deblonay, the Metcard system had to be replaced as it was approaching end of life, maintenance contracts had expired or were due to do so and it was increasingly costly to maintain. The cost arguments against MYKI that assume the alternative was at zero cost and therefore MYKI has cost $1.5M Net just do not hold up.
That said, one only has to read the various audit reports to see that there was more than a whiff of corruption surrounding aspects of the deal and it cost more than it should have.
Similarly, any argument that Melbourne could have just bought something like the London Oyster Card off the shelf and plonked it down in Melbourne is just rubbish and ignores the differences in topography and the business rules. Much of the hardware IS quite industry standard.
The REAL problems are therefore:
1. It did cost more than it should have and there are serious grounds to suspect probity issues.
2. Stakeholders do not appear to have been properly consulted (first step in designing any system) and it is only now that EASILY FORESEEN issues such as tourists are being addressed and not very well.
3. Transaction processing does appear to be far too slow although mine have all gone through promptly. (online top ups.)
4. Charging for a ticket on it’s own is a bit rich and should be abandoned in favour of a refundable deposit like in Singapore.
5. MYKI vending machines need to be modified to accept unwanted MYKI cards and to give a FULL REFUND. I am not sure this is possible and if so it is a major blunder.
It is unfortunate that the REAL problems tend to get lost in a fog of petty whinges.
I agree about Bachelor, but Kosky was just as bad or worse.
What you overlook about Smart-Meters is that they were Federally mandated.
Apart from that, properly implemented, they are an essential reform in energy management and are being rolled out all around the world.
Questions can properly be raised about the roll-out and how it is being handled.
Apologies to Fran for doing what I advised her against and writing a long, verbose post. 😉
[The Hegel affair]
HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL HAGEL
FFS
deblonay @ 217
I demand from you a full explanation of the role of the 19th Century German philosopher, Hegel, in contemporary Middle Eastern politics. 👿
[…But I’m always comforted when anti-Semitism and illiteracy come as a package, as here. Ignorance rarely travels alone.]
It is hardly anti-Semitic to question the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the US.
Gecko
[It is hardly anti-Semitic to question the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the US.]
I’m with you!
[Perhaps it will educate them on the correct use of the apostrophe as well,]
Is not it time we just eliminated the damn thing.
Hello again
The Australian dollar will always be higher under Labor governments:
[Australia’s dollar rose against most of its 16 major counterparts on speculation Japan will increase spending to bolster its economy, supporting demand for assets linked to global growth.
The () Aussie advanced versus the New Zealand dollar before data this week forecast to show improvement in retail sales and building approvals in Australia. New Zealand’s currency, known as the kiwi, weakened against the majority of its peers as Asian stocks halted an advance from last week.
The Australian dollar touched 92.85 yen, the highest since Sept. 1, 2008.
“An accelerated rebound in Japan’s economy will be positive” for the Australian currency, said Kengo Suzuki, a strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Securities Co., a unit of Japan’s third-largest bank by market value.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/aussie-reaches-2008-high-versus-yen-as-japan-may-boost-spending.html
By contrast, interest rates are lower under Labor governments:
[Analysts predict the South Pacific nation’s gross domestic product will grow 2.7 percent this year, the weakest pace in two years, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Group of 10 currency economies will probably expand 1.2 percent, while global GDP will rise 2.4 percent, separate polls show.
The Australian dollar has withstood expectations for a slump to trade more than 38 percent above its average since being freely floated in 1983. Its strength “keeps the pressure on the RBA to act,” said NAB’s Attrill.
Interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 78 percent chance the RBA will cut the cash rate to 2.75 percent or lower by June. Attrill sees the benchmark bottoming this year at a range of 2.25 percent to 2.75 percent.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-06/top-forecaster-sees-aussie-below-1-on-rba-cut-australia-credit.html
So most market forecasters predict record low interest rates around the time of a federal election later this year. Those who recall analysis Possum did of the relationship between interest rates and voting swings will be encouraged.
[So most market forecasters predict record low interest rates around the time of a federal election later this year. Those who recall analysis Possum did of the relationship between interest rates and voting swings will be encouraged.]
Did he also do one on the relationship between interest rates and market forecasters’ predictions?
MTBW@222
I agree.
Psephos, where does your irrational sensitivity on such matters come from?
There was a link someone posted on Twitter at the weekend with a photo of a Jewish guy and a Palestinian guy holding up a placard calling for peace and co-existence (forget exact words). Isn’t that what any sane person would support?
[Did he also do one on the relationship between interest rates and market forecasters’ predictions?]
🙂
And behold a case in point:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/top-forecaster-sees-dollar-below-parity-20130107-2cc7c.html
The Bisons have been calving. A few more added to the herd here:
[The Commonwealth Bank’s market capitalisation has risen above $100 billion for the first time as investors continue their chase for higher-yielding stocks.
The bank’s shares rose to its highest-ever value – $63.24 – at the close of trading on Thursday, as the ASX200 reached a 19-month high and the market continued to rally following the US Congress’ temporary aversion of the “fiscal cliff” crisis.
Last month, Nobel laureate and leading US economist Robert Engle said Australian banks were well capitalised and could withstand another financial crisis.
Dr Engle, a professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said the world ”looks pretty rosy from Australia’s point of view” and that the liquidity measures used during the global financial crisis appeared to be effective.
Mr Esho said the biggest risk for Australian banks was an elevation in bad debt charges as the economy slows down, but added that he thought it would be an unlikely issue.
World’s 10 top banks by market capitalisation (Bloomberg)
1. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – $229.18 billion
2. China Construction Bank – $199.42 billion
3. HSBC Holdings – $188.23 billion
4. Wells Fargo & Co – $174.86 billion
5. JPMorgan Chase – $161.90 billion
6. Agricultural Bank of China – $141.22 billion
7. Bank of China – $124.94 billion
8. Bank of America – $123.18 billion
9. Citigroup – $115.98 billion
10. Commonwealth Bank – $101.76 billion
11. Royal Bank of Canada – $84.83 billion
12. Westpac – $81.29 billion
13. Banco Santander – $81.14 billion
14. Toronto-Dominion Bank – $73.13 billion
15. Itau Unibanco – $72.76 billion]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/commonwealth-banks-market-capitalisation-rises-above-100b-20130103-2c6yi.html#ixzz2HGFR1SWn
[It is hardly anti-Semitic to question the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the US. ]
Again this is one of the questions that is beyond needing consideration for anyone paying attention.
If any other foreign nation even tried to get that kind of influence people would be arrested and sent to nice places for a long time without trials. but I forget that Israel cannot be measured by comparison with normal nations. Presumably because such comparison would end up with them being classified a rogue state and that wouldn’t be on.
[Is not it time we just eliminated the damn thing.]
Priorities WWP.
Abbot first, apostrophes later.
This morning I suggested that Tony Abbott might like to write some more articles for Mamamia. Well he hasn’t, yet, but the folk at Mamamia have dug up an old piece he wrote on why he never, ever, not for one moment, opposed IVF. It’s a whole load of bulldust and a whole lot of re-written history. We’ve seen it before, but it’s worth a revisit as a reminder of how easily the man lies.
Here it is –
http://www.mamamia.com.au/news/tony-abbott-i-have-never-opposed-ivf/
Abbott tries to persuade us that he was just defending a government policy which he disagreed with. Yeah, sure.
And here’s an interview from April 2005 where Abbott is asked to comment.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1354501.htm
I don’t see too much angst when he says that IVF ‘is an elective procedure, and there has to be some limit, speaking hypothetically, on what the Government is prepared to spend on things which are non-essential.’
Abbott also tells a whole lot of lies about his actions regarding RU486, the morning after pill and abortion. Everything he says can easily be proved as lies by a few minutes searching. Does he really think we are stupid?
[Does he really think we are stupid?]
No just liberal voters and enough swingers who are not paying any attention at all.
Psephos is publishing a new book HAGEL 45.
Preview @ 219.
William
[Did he also do one on the relationship between interest rates and market forecasters’ predictions?]
No, but having seen examples of them, I can assure you that Poss’s analysis was much more reliable 🙂
All jokes aside, all available evidence points to lower interest rates in future. The “experts” may be wrong about the details, but the trend is very strong.
[Psephos is publishing a new book HAGEL 45.
Preview @ 219.]
Most eloquent and reasoned defense of the pro-Israel lobby we can hope for.
Just heard bob car on the radio. In reckon he’s the best foreign minister we’ve had in a long long time.
[Psephos, where does your irrational sensitivity on such matters come from?]
From reading European history, and more recently Middle Eastern history.
[There was a link someone posted on Twitter at the weekend with a photo of a Jewish guy and a Palestinian guy holding up a placard calling for peace and co-existence (forget exact words). Isn’t that what any sane person would support?]
Well of course. But what does that mean in practice? For there to be “co-existence” between Israel and a Palestinian state, each must recognise the legitimate existence of the other. This the Palestinians adamantly refuse to do. Both Hamas and Fatah remain formally committed to the destruction of Israel. At every Palestinian demo, they chant “from the river to the sea.” Every Palestinian school, TV station and newspaper preaches death to the Jews. Israel’s position is that it is ready to open negotiations for a final status settlement when the Palestinians recognise Israel. Netanyahu stated that very clearly at the UN last year. Until the Palestinians are willing to admit defeat and recognise Israel, there will be no settlement and no “peace and co-existence.”
[Just heard bob car on the radio. In reckon he’s the best foreign minister we’ve had in a long long time.]
Up there with Rudd and Smith definitely, but the best really?
He is quite a good politician I will admit readily.
[ This the Palestinians adamantly refuse to do. Both Hamas and Fatah remain formally committed to the destruction of Israel. At every Palestinian demo, they chant “from the river to the sea.” Every Palestinian school, TV station and newspaper preaches death to the Jews. Israel’s position is that it is ready to open negotiations for a final status settlement when the Palestinians recognise Israel. Netanyahu stated that very clearly at the UN last year. Until the Palestinians are willing to admit defeat and recognise Israel, there will be no settlement and no “peace and co-existence.”]
Bit of an … no wait totally immoral position to hold what you are saying essentially is that is is quite reasonable for Israel to say:
we will kill you and steal any valuable land or resources until you recognise we are really the good guys give us everything we ask for and accept a kind of second class slave nation outcome. Or if you recognise us for the ruthless conquerors we are and dare express opposition to it then we will keep up the pillage and slaughter. You chose which way you lose!
Now if Israel had a few fire crackers and Hamas and Fatah had nuclear weapons then perhaps Israels position might be defensible.
WWP:
He is much better than rudd.
Smith was also very good.
[Daniel Hurst @danielhurstbne
Peter Slipper summonsed to CanberraMagsCourt “in relation to 3 offences of Dishonestly Causing a Risk of a Loss to the Commonwealth”: AFP
4:01 PM – 7 Jan 13]
Have been using my new phone to comment today. Much easier than I thought it would be. Can see how people become addicted to new tech.
As I’ve said before, I’m happy to debate Israel-Palestine all day (in between doing other things, anyway), but I won’t respond to stupid posts like WeWantPaul’s last.
A new year and all that.
Lets do Israel -v- Palestine.
Cricket and Tennis is way too boring.
http://www.afp.gov.au/media-centre/news/afp/2013/january/media-statement-mr-peter-slipper-mp-summonsed-in-relation-to-afp-investigation.aspx
[Media Statement: Mr Peter Slipper MP summonsed in relation to AFP investigation
Release Date: Monday, January 07 2013, 03:21 PM
The AFP has today (7 January 2013) served the legal representative of Mr Peter Slipper MP with a summons in relation to three offences of Dishonestly Causing a Risk of a Loss to the Commonwealth pursuant to section 135.1(5) Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth).
Mr Slipper MP has been summonsed to appear in the Canberra Magistrates Court on 15 February 2013.
It would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.]
4PM News on 2UE :
Peter Slipper has been ordered to appear in the Canberra Court next month to answer matters arising from the FairWork investigation into his use of his Parliamentary Credit Card.
Leroy:
Wow.
[236
confessions
Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 3:51 pm | PERMALINK
Just heard bob car on the radio. In reckon he’s the best foreign minister we’ve had in a long long time.]
Couldn’t agree with you more 🙂
[but I won’t respond to stupid posts like WeWantPaul’s last]
Simply because your cause is indefensible and so is the other side’s.