Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

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  1. [As I’ve said before, I’m happy to debate Israel-Palestine all day (in between doing other things, anyway), but I won’t respond to stupid posts like WeWantPaul’s last.]

    Like all elements of the farce that purports to be discussion of Israel Palestine one needs the rules of logic and debate carefully structured – sorry Adam if I wont oblige. None so blind as those who chose not to see.

  2. Happy New Year everyone.

    Lets have more commentary this year based on William’s charts in the corner, Possum’s Pollytrend, Poliquant’s site, Kevin Bonham’s analysis and anything else that comes along in relation to predictions instead of the usual fighting over trivia which ultimately leads nowhere

  3. Gecho@189

    A reasonable summation I would have though albeit not considering Labor’s ability to always be prone to shooting itself in the foot.

    Some darker clouds on the horizon re the former Speaker?

  4. Rudd was prone to not reading reports he requested and Smith was a serial procrastinator. I tend to agree that Carr is better equipped in experience and diplomacy, is more reliable & even-handed, and handles interviews with greater ease and aplomb than either predecessor could have hoped. Another Gillard victory plucked from the jaws of defeat.

  5. I did warn you guys not to get too carried away about Slipper’s victory over Ashby while the other issues relating to him were still unresolved. And I’ve made the same warning about Thomson. Both these stories have a way to run yet.

  6. It would have been handy if the Slipper information was available a week ago when I was having a discussion elsewhere about certain MP’s fitness to be re-elected. The potential criminal offences always did seem to be more threatening for Slipper as the Ashby civil allegations were always weak.

  7. WeWantPaul@238


    Just heard bob car on the radio. In reckon he’s the best foreign minister we’ve had in a long long time.


    Up there with Rudd and Smith definitely, but the best really?

    He is quite a good politician I will admit readily.

    WWP, you took the troll’s bait.
    I was hoping no-one would.

  8. [Rudd was prone to not reading reports he requested and Smith was a serial procrastinator.]

    Correct on both, plus of course Rudd spent every waking moment plotting his return to power.

  9. PvO again.

    @vanOnselenP: Libs making a big deal of TA as pro IVF. Errr, only when it is done by married heterosexual couples I assume? Not all that “with the times”!

    I also await the first journo to ask Abbott what he means by abortion being ‘safe, legal and rare’. In particular what does he mean by “rare”. It’s a most disingenuous statement which he needs to explain.

  10. [WWP, you took the troll’s bait.
    I was hoping no-one would.]

    I don’t like to leave unjustified stupid things like ‘israel is good’ ‘rudd is bad’ go unchallenged, I find it insulting but as you say that is what the trolls want.

  11. MTBW@247


    4PM News on 2UE :

    Peter Slipper has been ordered to appear in the Canberra Court next month to answer matters arising from the FairWork investigation into his use of his Parliamentary Credit Card.

    I bet that sends a shiver down the spine of a lot of MPs on all sides.

  12. [I bet that sends a shiver down the spine of a lot of MPs on all sides.]

    Shivers of laughter from Mal Brough most likely. Makes his job of being elected a little easier.

  13. Psephos

    Will be interesting to see the dates on the Slipper allegations, pre or post his ascension to Speaker. As you say, not surprising to many in the big house.

    Also goes to show the AFP are gun barallel straight, which will be relevant for Perret’s referral of the ill conceived Ashby conspiracy.

  14. Smith did not procrastinate on those matters where Rudd did not interfere. He spent a lot of time and energy cultivating relations with mid-power states in Europe and the Americas, states with whom we have a lot in common. Australia’s success in winning election to the UNSC owes quite a lot to Smith’s path-finding.

    But aside from that, his contributions inside the Government, in the security committee of Cabinet, have always been a source of focus and strength right in the very heart of national affairs. No-one should underestimate his rigour on these things.

  15. [At a guess, the Slipper charges could be about those allegations of signing blank cheques? Just a guess.]

    Isn’t it about credit card usage?

  16. [Also goes to show the AFP are gun barallel straight,]

    I does not show that at all, it is the problem with politicians messing in legal matters, it taints them and taints the investigation, the AFP look like they are now a party to the setup.

    I’m not saying they aren’t gun barrel straight, and I’m not saying they are party to anything at all – it is the improper politicization of criminal matters taints the justice system. justice needs to be done and seen to be done, and whenever charges against either side are preceded by a political witch-hunt justice cannot be seen to be done – even where it is.

  17. http://www.afp.gov.au/media-centre/news/afp/2013/january/media-statement-mr-peter-slipper-mp-summonsed-in-relation-to-afp-investigation.aspx
    [The AFP has today (7 January 2013) served the legal representative of Mr Peter Slipper MP with a summons in relation to three offences of Dishonestly Causing a Risk of a Loss to the Commonwealth pursuant to section 135.1(5) Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth).]

    http://www.cdpp.gov.au/Publications/Directors-Litigation-Instructions/Directors-Litigation-Instruction-07.pdf
    [Dishonest offences under the Criminal Code
    Instruction Number: 7
    Last Updated: September 2012

    The following provides guidance to DPP lawyers as to the circumstances in which it would be appropriate to lay or proceed with a charge of an offence of general dishonesty contrary to s135.1 of the Criminal Code.]
    Someone who knows more about the law may be able to shed additional light

  18. Happy new year to everyone.

    Re Mr Slipper, it will be interesting to see to what time period the charges relate ie pre or post Speaker and

    how long it takes the OM to decide Mr Slipper is again a issue of national importance.

  19. [Shivers of laughter from Mal Brough most likely. Makes his job of being elected a little easier.]

    Brough will never stand. He is soiled goods now. It is just a matter of time before Fibs have to dump him.

  20. Rossmore@262


    PvO again.

    @vanOnselenP: Libs making a big deal of TA as pro IVF. Errr, only when it is done by married heterosexual couples I assume? Not all that “with the times”!

    I also await the first journo to ask Abbott what he means by abortion being ‘safe, legal and rare’. In particular what does he mean by “rare”. It’s a most disingenuous statement which he needs to explain.

    Were you not involved in that discussion elsewhere?

    It is a quotation from Bill Clinton and it is a reasonable statement.

    The “rare”, as used by Clinton and others, is a reference to sex education and availability of contraception eliminating a lot of the circumstances leading to abortions.

    I think that is a perfectly reasonable position and I share it.

    So now, does Tone come out all in favour of sex education and freely available contraception? We await with eager anticipation his next piece of fatherly advice to his daughters. 👿

  21. [I also await the first journo to ask Abbott what he means by abortion being ‘safe, legal and rare’. In particular what does he mean by “rare”. It’s a most disingenuous statement which he needs to explain.]

    They’ll need to ask Gillard, too, because she’s used exactly the same line, which was originally from Hillary Clinton. What Clinton meant was that if we had effective sex education and freely available contraception, then we would have a lot fewer abortions. But of course the Catholic Church opposes both of those things as well as abortion, so Abbott needs to make his position on them clear.

  22. Psephos
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    I did warn you guys not to get too carried away about Slipper’s victory over Ashby while the other issues relating to him were still unresolved. And I’ve made the same warning about Thomson. Both these stories have a way to run yet.

    ————————————-

    News ltd and the pro coalition media will be caught out if they go on about this , while keeping the ashby lnp quiet

    labor is in command

    again your negativity fails

  23. Re Slipper

    Peter Slipper could have run a pizza delivery service out of the Speaker’s office for all I care… nothing retracts from Justice Rares finding or its significance. The intent is not diminished.

  24. unfortunately for Psephos

    news ltd or abbott will ever help his argument

    News ltd / Abbott coalition have put themselves into a corner

  25. davidwh@269


    I bet that sends a shiver down the spine of a lot of MPs on all sides.


    Shivers of laughter from Mal Brough most likely. Makes his job of being elected a little easier.

    So no other MP has stretched the limits of permissible use of their parliamentary credit card?

    Now, about that bridge you wanted to buy off me… 😀

  26. unfortunately for Psephos

    news ltd or abbott will never help his argument

    News ltd / Abbott coalition have put themselves into a corner

  27. [… But of course the Catholic Church opposes both of those things as well as abortion…]

    Now don’t ya go getting all anti-catholic on us Psephos. :devil:

  28. Gecko 284 I agree in principle although I am not sure it works that neatly in the court of public opinion. Unless of course Brough gets charged with some offence arising from the Slipper/Ashby saga.

    But basically if Brough runs for Fisher he will likely win comfortably and then time will take care of the rest.

  29. [..so Abbott needs to make his position on them clear.]

    His great suggestion to curb “teenage promiscuity” was a TV campaign. Should do wonders, I reckon, especially if there is a fridge magnet, as well.

  30. The Oz reckons it is about vouchers
    http://bit.ly/Xddo0Z (click google link)
    [Former speaker Peter Slipper to face court accused of misusing taxi vouchers
    BY: LAUREN WILSON From: The Australian January 07, 2013 4:18PM

    FORMER federal parliamentary speaker Peter Slipper will face charges over the alleged misuse of taxpayer-funded taxi vouchers.

    The Australian Federal Police today said in a statement it had served on Mr Slipper’s lawyer a summons, “in relation to three offences of dishonestly causing a risk of a loss to the commonwealth.”]
    Looks like it is from the Ashby cab allegations. Is he the main witness? I presume there is paperwork as well.

  31. bemused I have a very simple philosophy on MP’s who inappropriately use government funds, regardless of political persuasion, they deserve all they get. So if there are others and Slipper drops names then so be it. No sympathy from me.

  32. [But basically if Brough runs for Fisher he will likely win comfortably and then time will take care of the rest.]

    That would be what the most disgusting libs would be hoping for.

  33. David wh

    Brough , Abbott/ libs/lnp

    will have alot to answer for

    the question will be what will news ltd and the pro coaliton do

    will they kept quiet like they did in the ashby libs/lnp conspiracy

    or show their biased and will make the call for new media laws louder

  34. WWP

    By political interference, you mean something like George Brandis sending dossiers on Craig Thomson to state Liberal police ministers, asking for them to refer to the police commissioner?

    The AFP appear to have looked at certain evidence based on a complaint, and determined a case for Mr Slipper to answer.

  35. [What Clinton meant was that if we had effective sex education and freely available contraception, then we would have a lot fewer abortions. But of course the Catholic Church opposes both of those things as well as abortion, so Abbott needs to make his position on them clear.]
    This has long been the massive hypocrisy of those opposed to abortion. Without abortion there would need to be a massive expansion of the welfare state else you’d simply have a much higher level of child mortality and children living in poverty.

    Not exactly a pro-life position.

  36. I got a funny feeling

    Abbott and the coalition will give labor a gift, they will come out and talk about slipper

    yet will continue to be quiet on ashby, due to the appeal

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