The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.
Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.
What could be the election sealer for labor is the new media laws
i think that when the coaliton will change to a new leader
the media wont be able to protect abbott ,
I mean it wouldnt be Xmas if last #Newspoll of 2012 cant give #MSMhacks & #Fanbois & gals more #Ruddstoration rubbish
Meguire Bob
[opinion polls arent rigged of course]
It’s a nice arrangement – the Newspapers commission the pollsters and get to say what some of the questions are and that way they know what stories to beat up for the next two weeks.
Easy-peasy.
The Federal election will be won on Boat people and the Debt. The LNP will make sure that it will be these that will be talked about. If asked how they will pay for their policies, they will just say we will have to wait and see how bad the debt is, just look at our record we were able to have surpluses and records show we are the better economic managers.
We know that is wrong the economists know the FIBS are wrong but the OM will not question them on it, as it takes too much hard work explaining this and the public will just get bored with it all, so it just is not worth writing about.
The Greens do not care which Party wins Government. I now have to admit sadly that Australians don’t like Boat People coming over and demanding resettlement.I believe that the Malaysia Solution is the best and most humane way to stop the Boats.
To think I voted Greens and Democrats in 2001. That is something I will never do again, never ever.
Local tourism is feeling the pinch because (a) the Australian dollar is high and (b) – related but not automatic – Australians have a lot of disposable income, compared to most of the developed world.
Why would you spend a couple of weeks holidaying in Austraia when – for the same money – you could travel to China?
meher baba @145
I agree, blaming the polls is shooting the messenger. Whatever deficiencies there might be in any particular poll, they’re all moving the same way and that’s significant. In any case the polling companies have reputations to preserve. I’m sure their methodologies are sound for the big questions.
But I’m not all that pessimistic. If there are no more revelations, Slatergate will run out of puff…
I think that you’re being over-optimistic. There’ll be more allegations, if not about Slatergate then about something else. If the Opposition and their media allies can’t find anything they’ll make it up. And if anyone associated with the ALP was so much as late for Sunday School 30 years ago it will be blown up into the crime of the century. As per my earlier post, the ALP needs to be working on a counter strategy.
Muskiemp
[We know that is wrong the economists know the FIBS are wrong but the OM will not question them on it, as it takes too much hard work explaining this and the public will just get bored with it all, so it just is not worth writing about.]
Lenore Taylor surprisingly had a fair go at doing this about 3 months ago in a Sunday paper and it sank without trace.
So the depressants have been handed out again and, this being Newspoll’s last before the New Year, the dose had to be enough to last. 😀
Seriously though, poll results depend on what questions are put and who is doing the answering. IMO polls are really a hit and miss affair outside an election campaign when they are a sort of guide to determine which way the wind is blowing, but can never predict the thinking of the voter in the ballot box.
Anyway, I’m feeling relieved and thankful this morning when a smaller-than-normal heifer delivered a miniscule heifer of her own. I prepared for trouble that was more than likely to come in the middle of the night, and instead watched a trouble-free speedy delivery at 6am. All I have to do now is ensure the calf finds the teat and gets an adequate feed of colostrum.
Steve777
Posted Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 7:46 am | Permalink
meher baba @145
I agree, blaming the polls is shooting the messenger. Whatever deficiencies there might be in any particular poll, they’re all moving the same way and that’s significant. In any case the polling companies have reputations to preserve. I’m sure their methodologies are sound for the big questions.
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do the news ltd polls even asked about policies, i know when they rang me, there was no policy questions when i asked them why there are no coalition policy questions they hung up
do you really think the media is going to give the government a chance ?
i can not under stand why people are protecting the media
they are the ones who have started these disgusting tactics
The government really needs to push for the new media laws
the only way the media will report fairness
I mean look at the LNP in WA and QLD both are hopeless Governments, WA may be small population wise but QLD is the 3rd largest, one would think that the Polls would show some swing to the ALP. If these States do show a swing back to the ALP., then the Polls must be really bad in the other States.
Why is it then that Australians are not happy with their lot?
I do blame the Shockjocks for the majority of the ALP problems, they infiltrate Sydney including the Western Suburbs and the rest of NSW.They also infiltrate the QLD regional areas, the bashing of the ALP goes non stop for 24 hours
‘Remember that all the anti-Gillard stuff is built on nothing- imagine if, God forbid, the government actually really did something wrong- there would be Armageddon’
Yes but the thing that’s really frustrating is that the ALP seems unable or incapable of selling itself from a position of strength.
This Government, being a minority Government, will not change the Media Laws. If it tried to it will cop a further hiding from the OM and of course it will be all about FREE SPEECH.
So no good wasting your breath calling out for strong Media Laws.
[I do blame the Shockjocks ]
Their grip in Sydney and Perth is quite bizarre.
Two cities full of real estate interested and get rich quick people?
Many here on PB and elsewhere proclaim they are opposed to negative political attacks. This and other recent polls tells you why Political Parties use vicious personal attacks to promulgate their partisan agenda.
They work! (at least in the short term).
So thirty odd questions in Parliament and a hectoring media asking rhetorical questions about a twenty year old non issue have created some doubts about the PM and Government and have moved the polls significantly.
I suppose the question from here is whether the impact lasts or is washed away by the sands of time and the forgetful haziness of summer.
To be honest, I don’t know!
Anyone else notice the LNP stocks rise when parliament stops?
Squiggle,
Abbott’s popularity rises when he says nothing, too!
Ambushing press gallery with that press conference back in October just invited retribution both from investigative journos and AWU aggrieved comrades Styant Brown and Cambridge. The political situation then called for prime misterial dignified acknowledgement and regret of errors of youth in the distant past – not for “Ï did nothing wrong, prove it” screeching.
At time of misogyny speech my strong feeling was that Julia had jumped shark. Short term benefit sure, but long term peril: typical, alas, of her and McTernan’s political judgement from Peter Slipper appointment onwards.
Appalling.
Morning
Should i be surprised that the politics of smear works.
Tweet by jonathan green is instructive
[i suspect what we have learned here is that the electorate is, ah, agile. those old steady loyalties? old. welcome to the politics of shiny.]
Morning all.
[I mean look at the LNP in WA and QLD both are hopeless Governments]
I don’t think the minority Liberal govt in WA can be compared at all with the rabble in Qld. And Barnett, for all his faults, is many times a more capable Premier than Can’tDo.
GG
It appears your confidence has waned
GG
[Abbott’s popularity rises when he says nothing]
We should suggest to him retirement, a two year trip to Patagonia and a gold plated guarantee he’ll be able to unpack at Yarralumla on return
Tweet by Bongiorno
[Newspoll has the Coalition finishing the year strongly. Clearly mud throwing works. It was relentless.]
A new development:
[Troy Buswell is suing his former partner, Fremantle MP Adele Carles, for defamation over the latest claims made about the WA Treasurer’s behaviour.
In a writ served on the politician last night, it is alleged that comments published and broadcast across WA media outlets were seriously damaging to Mr Buswell’s reputation.
The court document, drawn up by lawyer Martin Bennett, also warns Ms Carles that any further defamatory comments would lead to the Treasurer seeking a Supreme Court injunction against her.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/15600042/buswell-sues-carles-for-defamation/
Labor’s counterattack next year must leave no doubt in anyone’s minds that if they vote Liberal then they’re voting for a woman-bashing thug to be PM.
Quite a few LNP voters will think that’s a good thing, but the majority would not.
[ Clearly mud throwing works. It was relentless.]
I reckon it only works in the short term. People are interested in more than just the smears and muck raking.
VK
What concerns me is that the electorate seems easily manipulated
confessions
[Troy Buswell is suing his former partner, Fremantle MP Adele Carles, for defamation over the latest claims made about the WA Treasurer’s behaviour.]
This is exactly the sort of cheerful news we need.
Something to look forward to in the new year.
Lawering up with a bevy of expensive Silks will add to the fun.
confessions
What will the electorate respond to during the election campaign. Personal character assassinations or policy platform?
ICAC will be a continuous drip of poison feeding the Labor crooks meme for the next 6 months…
I honestly think they’d respond to personal character assassinations.
Australians have become Americanized in that regard. Put policy on and they’re like “Ugh this is boring, let’s watch MasterChef”. Mud-racking gets their attention.
Although if that’s the case, maybe Australia doesn’t deserve a good government.
Unmasking the lib dirt unit is the antidote…
The Beast sometimes runs a very decent article:
[Yet, as the suicides of Jacintha Saldanha and the recent spate of mostly young, mostly gay, always frightened men and women have shown us, the deeper we dig into the confusing world of human behavior, the less we seem to understand. All the more reason, then, to maintain basic human decency and respect in all exchanges, even—perhaps especially—those meant in jest.]
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/12/10/death-of-kate-middleton-nurse-shows-how-humiliation-can-lead-to-suicide.html
Bar Bar
Posted Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 8:18 am | Permalink
A
At time of misogyny speech my strong feeling was that Julia had jumped shark. Short term benefit sure, but long term peril: typical, alas, of her and McTernan’s political judgement from Peter Slipper appointment onwards.
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Gillard and labor stop going on about that over 2 months ago, like the 2010 election the coalition supporters and media still go on about it
the slipper fiasco is the coalition problem no matter how the coalition supportes deny it
VK
Unfortunately, you could be right. Perhaps the electorate ultimately get what they deserve.
victoria:
Remember the coalition are promising to take away tax breaks and other household compensation, and have no real plans for the country other than a return to 10 years ago.
Labor wins the election in 2013 or gets in by another minority
The pro coalition media and coalition will be harping on the 2010, as well as the 2013 result for many a years to come
[Gillard and labor stop going on about that over 2 months ago]
True. Think about who’s still talking about sexism and misogyny: Liberals and their shills in the OM.
Muskiemp
Posted Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 8:00 am | Permalink
This Government, being a minority Government, will not change the Media Laws. If it tried to it will cop a further hiding from the OM and of course it will be all about FREE SPEECH.
So no good wasting your breath calling out for strong Media Laws.
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fair point
just fire up
confessions
And yet they are doing well in the popularity stakes. I hope the govt have a strategy in place. Otherwise they are going to get done over at the next election by a bunch of talentless hacks.
MB
I wish i could be as optimistic as you. Right now, it is not looking good. As I said, hope the govt have a bloody good strategy in place
‘The LNP will make sure that it will be these that will be talked about. If asked how they will pay for their policies, they will just say we will have to wait and see how bad the debt is, just look at our record we were able to have surpluses and records show we are the better economic managers.’
And don’t forget, the ALP will just take it meekly.
Like it always does. No counter argument, no defence.
No Politics. No ‘killer instinct’.
Still look on the bright side. The punters are gonna get what’s coming to ’em.
rosemour
I have a relative who keeps saying to me that the citizens of this country are pampered pooches and they need a littlle bit of suffering to learn some appreciation.
vic,
I haven’t written the Government off. There appears to be a resurgence in confidence around atm. The recent drop in interest rates has yet to impact fully as yet. So, there is good news going forward.
The Government needs to get in synch with the mood and start projecting a positive agenda. However, the disunity of the Ruddsters and his acolytes can do the Party real damage if allowed to continue in to the new year.
The question for them is whether another bout on the Opposition benches will satisfy their thirst for revenge.
‘As I said, hope the govt have a bloody good strategy in place’
I may never stop laughing.
The ALP and strategy?
Like all that strategy that’s been on show lately.
Woo hoo! The Libs are toast!
GG@165. The effect of Slatergate will certainly wane. It hasn’t really got a continuing thread for the Opposition. “Gillard isn’t fit to remain Prime Minister because of something she did 18 years before she became PM which wasn’t illegal, but she should have known that she was going to be PM one day and it was therefore unbecoming of her to have done this thing, whatever it was because we’re not exactly sure.”
I think the average punter now believes there was something dodgy going on back then. And that’s quite understandable, really: the $5,000 cash deposit into JG’s bank account – which nobody has convincingly denied and which Bruce Wilson all but confirmed – will always remain a bit of a worry for me.
But “a bit of a worry” is not the same thing as proven misconduct requiring resignation or dismissal. Neville Wran rode out more serious allegations, because in the end nothing was convincingly proven against him. The default position for the public is that all politicians are a bit dodgy, so eventually Slatergate will fade into the background.
If I were one of JG’s advisers, I’d be much more worried about boat people and the economy.
CTar1@164
As I’ve said before, in Sydney we have –
Smartarse radio, FM – ever stunt under the sun.
Redneck Radio, AM – every prejudice under the sun.
ABC Radio – which has long since rolled over and defaulted on its charter and hard earnt reputation of integrity.
Thinking back on what the AM & PM radio shows on the ABC (in the mid 1980’s for example) use to be like. Fact driven detail about the issues of the day, examination of policy – not smarmy gotchas and outright attempts to verbal in order to get the answer the presenters want.
I just don’t accept these attempts by the 2Day FM presenters or management to weasel their way out that they got themselves into. Their whole business model was stunts pushing the envelope as far as possible in the knowledge they have a pathelic so called ‘regulator’.
As for teary presenters ‘wanting to reach out and hug’ the family of the deceased woman, puleazzze! Nothing could be more revolting.
They are sorry they got caught and it now threatens their business. Not once have they come out openly and acknowledged they broke the law on taping conversations with permission and the broadcasting code that also requires prior permission for pranks etc.
IF they are really sorry, the presenters and managements need to say this without qualification or deflection. It should already have been done.
All of them long since stopped serving any public interest and merely serving their own financial interests.
If the regulator doesn’t take meaningful action it should be replaced by a regulator with real teeth.
The problems are deeper though and it revolves around an overall toxic media which has been a harsh form of unaccountable censorship in itself and in its own self interests for many years.
Maybe governments will now do something to make them accountable for their actions.
Failing that, we all as consumers have an even greater means at our disposal and its about time we did so.
GG
It can be argued that the Ruddsters have already done irrepairable damage, and this latest poll will only embolden them.
I reckon a stint on the oppositon benches is what they will get
Troy Buswell/Julia Gillard is suing Tony Abbott, for defamation over the latest claims made about her.
Makes you wonder.
No killer instinct.
‘I reckon a stint on the oppositon benches is what they will get’
More like a decade.