The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.
Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.
Guytaur growth has slowed and in many cases has been flat all year, regardless what words we use this has been feeding into the voters feeling about economy security.
This has been a handbrake on the Government. I acknowledge that it has been performing better but it needs to work much harder at its message and on economy management.
TLBD
No conspiracy theory. Going on facts. Remember I think the 47/48 figure is which is also a two point drop not a four point drop.
Reflecting Labor consolidating its position and not going backwards.
mexican
You cannot use the word flat when an economy is growing.
Poll trends indicate a very close election.
I think we will know more once the budget is handed down for that will be the game changer
mexican
I agree with you on the poll trends.
Guytaur I am referring to certain sectors of the economy.
Some are seeing growth while others are not.
mexican
The public know the government has done all it can. They also know that the Coalition position is to do less.
Goodnight
Are you that certain guytaur? I certainly aren’t.
I think the public are dissatisfied with both party leaders, but then again, that’s been the state of play for almost all of 2012. Sure, Gillard got a spike of popularity as a result of her anti-misogyny speech in parliament, but that balloon has well and truly burst.
Re Economy
____________
Speaking to a cafe owner in Katoomba last week…she said that all the towns’ tourist industries are feeling the pinch as numbers are down and spending has dropped…cafes/bus tours/accomadation…the lot
Not good news
A parting factoid:
A majority of Newspoll respondents have disapproved of Gillard for 18 months.
The last time she had less than 50% disapproval was 1st May 2011.
The last time Abbott had less than 50% disapproval was 10th July 2011.
An unpopular set of leaders…
Good night all 🙂
[Scandal-prone West Australian Treasurer Troy Buswell has vehemently denied the latest allegations of lewd behaviour, this time by his former lover, who has also labelled him an alcoholic with psychological issues.]
The latest allegations align with all the previous on the record stuff which can be attributed to Buswell.
It’s like the Rudd whiteanting. Rudd and his spear carriers vehemently deny what is patently obvious to any objective observer.
….make that 19 months!
😉
Julia Gillard needs to narrow it a smidgen, A place to be to be the place to be. She aint going to win on only the womens vote. She can win with more f#ck you statements with a gutful of passion behind them. That will win the blokes.
She is the bravest person out there, Abbott is a toolie.
well that bloody sucks doesn’t it?
[Tony Abbott off to the UK, where he will be meeting Boris Johnson.]
He should be meeting with Cameron as Abbott basically proposed that Australia follow the Cameron doctrine of austerity during the GFC, which would’ve put us into a recession.
Mod Lib@111
And they are the record holders for their respective position for the longest period with disapproval 50 or greater.
Keating previously had three stints as PM like that of a year, a year and 14 months.
The longest for an Opposition Leader was about 7 months by Hewson.
[No it doesn’t. If Rudd had been restored in February, he would by now be once again in full Captain Queeg mode and Labor would be back in the disaster zone]
Oh ffs mate, Labor on 54 IS a disaster! That’s suggests a worse loss than 1996 and not much better than 1977!
Petitions for successions in USA
________________________________
The latest Tea Party effort is a series of state petitions to see the state’s succession from the USA(see 1860-Civil War)
Many tens of thousands have signed to seek removal from Obama Care et al
Only in America as they say !http://www.opednews.com/articles/Escape-to-Civil-War-Land-by-Jesse-Sublett-121208-782.html
ShowsOn@118
Only if it is what is actually polled at the election. 1993, 1996, 2001, 2004 all had Oppositions getting 53s and 54s five or six months from the election but only one of those Oppositions actually won. Considering the historical evidence of government resilience to polling, the polling just doesn’t prove Labor’s current situation is disastrous and nor does it reliably forecast the next election.
But given that the move back to Labor has stopped, there will be a need for Labor to make new progress next year – if they can.
[Considering the historical evidence of government resilience to polling, the polling just doesn’t prove Labor’s current situation is disastrous and nor does it reliably forecast the next election.]
I don’t think usual history applies because Labor is in minority government, so for some voters they are a sort of governing opposition. They don’t have the same authority that a normal majority government has, they won’t receive the same sort of incumbency vote that governments normally get (i.e. the idea of sticking with the government because it is the ‘default’ option).
A lot of voters are going to rock up more than happy to vote Liberal simply because it will be the easiest way to get rid of Gillard and the whole ‘minority government / hung parliament thing’.
Kevin,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7uPKDEY4ME
I think per usual the you PBs (Especially Mod Lib) are over reacting the polls….
It wasn’t long ago it the polls were at 60-40.
It seems Mod Lib and Co reluctant to include that in their discussions…
[I think per usual the you PBs (Especially Mod Lib) are over reacting the polls….
It wasn’t long ago it the polls were at 60-40.]
If you just cherry pick a poll or two you can claim anything you like. Labor was never averaging around 40% 2pp, the worst Labor got was an average of around 43.8 around mid June, i.e. a couple of weeks before the carbon tax started.
The problem is it seems Labor’s 2pp vote peaked at 48% about a month ago, and has now headed back down. Clearly what we want is the polls to be at least statistically, if not numerically, tied going into the election year.
But one thing to think about is it is 2 weeks to Christmas, the last thing on most people’s minds at this time of year is politics.
zoidy,
Those of that particular coterie
tend toindulge in exaggeration. What is it that “comes before the fall”?ShowsOn@122
Well, this may very well be so and I think it’s extremely plausible. But it’s something about which the current polling does not say anything. Someone might even say that Labor could be 52-48 ahead and lose for that reason, and there would be no evidence whether that person was right or wrong.
Looking at state level history quite a lot of minority governments have been re-elected with majorities. However usually the governments this happens to won office from opposition, so they are seen as not to blame for their own minority status. Cases of governments losing their majority then winning the next election (in any sense), as Labor did in the ACT recently, appear rare.
By the way this is Abbott’s highest uncertain satisfaction rating since July 2011! Probably meaningless.
Leaving aside your last paragraph of nonsense:
[They don’t have the same authority that a normal majority government has]
does 449 – 0 ring a bell?
The reporting is different from the reality.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3651498.htm
ABC chairman attacks proposed federal anti-discrimination changes.
If he thinks these are bad he should see the Tasmanian proposed changes which are about 20 times worse.
Labor’s pursuit of increased and unnecessary restrictions on speech in the name of wrapping people’s feelings in cotton wool is damaging to any attempt to portray the Labor Party as the credible heir of small-l liberalism (an idea recently championed by Andrew Leigh – http://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=3622 ). It suggests that Labor just doesn’t really ideologically “get” freedom any more than the religious conservatives in the Coalition do.
Interesting development.
[lisa o’carroll @lisaocarroll
Australian hoax call to Kate hospital could be ‘offence under UK law’ says leading barrister http://gu.com/p/3cdye/tw via @guardian
joe2 @ 131
The uninteresting bit is that an enterprising public relations minded barrister is always looking for more work.
Someones has to stump up the readies for the mistress up Maida Vale way after all!
[Pitch invader apologises as nine are charged over crowd trouble during Manchester derby
FA chairman David Bernstein calls actions of crowd at Manchester derby ‘deplorable’]
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/pitch-invader-apologises-as-nine-are-charged-over-crowd-trouble-during-manchester-derby-8399068.html
The Guardian would report this entirely differently – ‘All things up Norf peachy with crowd enjoying some highjinks at the footy’.
Another worthless poll with the major parties on less than 80% of the primary vote.
We know the Coalition vote is inflated, by 3% due to Newspoll data massaging (the electoral roll report), that mobile phone omission causes innacurate results (nate silver) and who knows how the “others” will vote.
But hey it makes the Libs happy and complacent so who cares. 🙂
Kevin @ 130
From outside perspective things down there do come across as prim and proper with more ‘prim’ upcoming.
[deblonay
Posted Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink
Re Economy
____________
Speaking to a cafe owner in Katoomba last week…she said that all the towns’ tourist industries are feeling the pinch as numbers are down and spending has dropped…cafes/bus tours/accomadation…the lot
Not good news]
Nothing new – things haven’t been ‘good’ for tourism up there since the fad of Katoomba as a honeymoon destination went out of fashion in the ’30s.
Apple kicking out of bounds because it doesn’t know where the goals are:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-10/apple-maps-strands-motorists-looking-for-mildura/4418400
Why is it not possible to do a poll with mobile phones?
Certainly you don’t know where the phone is at the time you call a random number, but all of that can be sorted out once the data is organised, if you find out the postcode of the caller.
I seem to remember someone saying that in Oz they ditch you quickly if they already have enough of that gender or age group.
I thought that cell phones were used in some US polls.
everyone back under their bridges?
Morning All
Not a good poll to finish the year other than the only thing giving Labor any hope – Abbott remaining incredibly unpopular.
I’m predicting an August election so there are only 9 months to turn things around. Things Labor must do in that time
* admit the surplus is gone and stop chasing it
* do something about NSW – ICAC will be running all year, they need an intervention of some sorts
* turn the debate to policy as soon as possible – get Abbott onto the back foot trying to explain how they will pay for things they want to do
* set the ground early for the May budget – dump the School Kids bonus and use the money to pay for Gonski etc etc etc
* they’ve lurched to the right on boats and they still keep coming – reintroduce Malaysia and make Abbott vote against it (Labor deserve every ounce of punishment they get on this issue imo)
* pray – they need a miracle
Have a great day All
All this newspoll shows
is how disgusting the media is and why new media laws needs to come in early next year
1- the news poll shows mean and women in Australia are heartless and full of hate, hypocrites and liars
2- men and women do not care about health, education or policies only smear
3- Australians are the most gullible to the media
4- Australians are becoming a joke of the world
All this newspoll shows
is how disgusting the media is and why new media laws needs to come in early next year
1- the news poll shows men and women in Australia are heartless and full of hate, hypocrites and liars
2- men and women do not care about health, education or policies only smear
3- Australians are the most gullible to the media
4- Australians are becoming a joke of the world
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Incubator woes.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/boy-denies-rape-charge-kings-head-tells-parents-20121210-2b5p0.html
Hell. I’d love this horrible little prat to take a big (political) fall someday soon!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-brands-electoral-reform-labor-rort-20121210-2b5a2.html
Another charming Liberal type who I’d like to see get hammered. I met him once. He was a shocker!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/maxtheaxe-on-the-sharp-end-after-royal-prank-20121210-2b55b.html
Much as I eschew the rubbish on FM radio I tend to agree with Alan Moir here.
David Pope not impressed with Abbott.
Ron Tandberg is still giving Trucker Tone a hard time!
David Rowe’s tribute to Sir Patrick Moore.
And from the Land of the Free –
This says it all about the Repugs.
http://americablog.com/2012/12/cut-medicare-republican-tax-cuts-iraq.html
Some FoxNews cartoons.
Now THIS could be interesting. (Al Franken has turned out to be a great Senator).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/10/stephen-colbert-leading-in-polls_n_2271804.html
The horrible effects of methamphetamine use.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/06/horrors-of-methamphetamin-rehabscom-photos_n_2240401.html
And we wonder why there are issues around the world!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/09/atheists-humanists-suffer_n_2268681.html
54-46 consistently reflected in three separate polls. We have to assume its correct.
It’s no good people banging on about poor polling methodologies, conspiracies, etc. This sort of talk was.very popular back on election night: “look at the massive crowds turning out for Gough, can’t you sense thr public feeling in the air, that mongrel Rupert Murdoch has rigged the polls” And then, on election night, 57-43 2PP to the scumbag who later went on – drawing on his Scottish roots (so to speak) – to demonstrate to the citizens of Memphis that “there’s nothing worn under thr kilt” (or, to be more precise, towel).
Why are the polls so bad? I prefer simple explanations: for the best part of two weeks most media outlets plus the Opposition went into hysterical overdrive flinging mud at Gillard. Extremely unappealing and untrustworthy people from out of her past were paraded nightly on TV: especially the ABC (boy I’d love someone from the Labor inner circle to explain why they decided to leave Mark Scott in place, and now back him up with that decidedly ex-lefty Jim Spiegalman as the Chair. Great thinking folks. It’s the sort of even-handed magnanimity that John Howard never dreamed of showing. Fat lot of good it’s done you.)
The mud from Slatergate has stuck for now And the economy is on a downward turn. And nobody seems to have found a way to make Kevin Rudd shut up.
But I’m not all that pessimistic. If there are no more revelations, Slatergate will run out of puff: it was on thr verge of doing so when the Xmas break left it frozen in time as the public’s last, ensuring impression of the political year. If the debate switches to the economy, as it seems to be doing, the Libs will struggle as this is an area of debate where spin isn’t going to be enough.
Rudd remains a problem. I heard his amateurish pontificating about Syria yesterday and wondered, as I have always done, how anyone could take the man the least bit seriously. But people on the Australian left have always had a penchant for pompous know-it-alls: Barry Jones, Gareth Evans, Phillip Adams, and even (although they had more substance than those previously mentioned) Keating and Whitlam.
Sorry, iPhonr woes again. Somewhere back there I was trying to talk about 1975 and some deleted text worked its way back in.
Meguire Bob @141 – I think that you are being a bit harsh on the Australian electorate. But yes, the smear campaign has worked, by shifting a percentage point or two of the electorate into the Opposition column. Those who changed were probably the disengaged and didn’t follow the campaigns closely but heard lots of sound bites – Gillard – Union – Corruption – Criminal. That there was little or no substance and no criminality on the part of the PM does not matter.
It worked and we’ll see much more of the same in 2013. In particular, expect ‘startling new allegations’ once the election is called, with the Daily Telegraph being converted to a broadsheet to accommodate the size of the headlines. Of course there’ll be no substance, as will become clear after the election, but they will have served they’re purpose.
I hope Labor are working overtime on their counter strategy over the holidays.
opinion polls arent rigged of course they are done on media’s biased
those who think they arent need to wake up
why opinion polling do not have a big influence on election day
if they did there would be a new government , ever election
elections are won on policies and who will be better for the country
despite my anger over newsltd and the pro coalition defending their man Abbott, and making Australians look like the most heartless and hateful and uneducated people on earth
i think people will wake up during the election campaign
and follow the recent election trends , where the sitting government gets re-elected for over 10 years
Steve777
you are right , i get too fired up easy ,
i know it is harsh, but that what this polls does show
people have fallen for the media
the government needs to bring in the laws , to stop the media from using disgusting tactics
Mehar
[Rudd remains a problem. I heard his amateurish pontificating about Syria yesterday and wondered, as I have always done]
It amazes me that so many think he’s a foreign affairs expert on the back of him spending 3 years learning Mandarin and 4 years being the guy who knew how to break in to the Chancellery when they locked themselves out.