The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.
Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.
Newspoll
54-46 2PP to the coalition
Primaries: Coalition 46, ALP 32 , Greens 11
Better PM: Gillard 43, Abbott 34
Gillard: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 52
Abbott: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 59
7-9 December . Sample 1173
Final newspoll for 2012
LNP seat projection must be in the 90s with the assumed 2 or 3 from Tasmania now.
Having seen the 2 opposition parties’ (the coalition and OM) efforts pay dividends, one must ask, again, why did they do it NOW? Did they really think they could force the PM out? Or was it save Abbott?
Good for Labor that Abbott stays, but I still think with the OM firmly in his corner, he is going to be hard to beat.
Remember that all the anti-Gillard stuff is built on nothing- imagine if, God forbid, the government actually really did something wrong- there would be Armageddon
[That means the ALP backbench have an uncomfortable Xmas and New Year period coming up when they will be wondering whether they made the right decision earlier in the year!]
No it doesn’t. If Rudd had been restored in February, he would by now be once again in full Captain Queeg mode and Labor would be back in the disaster zone. Plotting would be well advanced to depose him again in the new year. Whatever Labor’s troubles, the large majority of Caucus will not, under any circumstances, have Rudd back. If Gillard’s polling crashes and Caucus decides she has to go (which I don’t think will happen, but it might), they will turn to Shorten or Combet or Smith or Crean or Dick Adams or Beelzebub and all his hounds from Hell before they turn to Rudd. Rudd is finished. He is an ex-parrot. Can we get that through our heads?
Mod Lib the seat projection is in your back passage if you want to base it on a poll a year out. But i would be confident with the OM on your side
[New thread which it’s too hard for me to link to because I’m on a tablet.]
Those blue ones are no good for you. Try a red one.
[The fallout from the 2Day FM radio prank continues, with Southern Cross Austereo cancelling the Hot 30 show and issuing a company-wide suspension of prank calls.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/2day-fm-cancels-show-suspends-prank-calls-20121210-2b5h9.html#ixzz2EeEX1Huv ]
All too late IMO. If it isn’t Kyle Sandilands quizzing teens about rape or whatever it was, it’s these second stringers and program managers failing to secure basic approvals before putting a segment to air.
FAIL all round I’m afraid.
Psephos
I hear Beelzebub has cross-factional support. He’s a good media performer.
[Rudd is finished. He is an ex-parrot. ]
A feather duster?
[Andrew
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib the seat projection is in your back passage if you want to base it on a poll a year out.]
Yes…..2 years out
then 18 months out
then 12 months out
…now 9 months out
[But i would be confident with the OM on your side]
Looking pretty consistent message over many years, just like before NSW and Qld
Psephos he is certainly finished in terms of prospects of leadership, but is he in finished in seeking revenge? Would he rather see Abbott as PM than the PM win another term? Will there be no more leaks come campaign-time?
Mod Lib it has not been consistent’ you clearly dont remember the 59/41 newspolls or the 50/50 ones. Labor has recovered from the dolldurms (unlike in NSW or Qld). Yes in the latest round they have suffered a hit with the smear campaign which has stalled their comeback, but will this be temporary?
Would the front page of The Australian give a clue today?
1.5% to the ALP through auto-enrollment projected. Why not change the weighting of the NewsPoll to “adjust” for this?
This poll represents a 4% swing, which would cost Labor 14 seats on a uniform national swing. As we know, the states are behaving in a far from uniform way at present, but the differences largely cancel each other out: that’s the beauty of the Mackerras pendulum. The likely result would for Labor to lose between 6 and 10 seats in NSW and 3 or 4 in Tas, and maybe a couple elsewhere. Offsetting that there might be a few gains in Qld or Victoria. The net result would therefore be roughly what this poll predicts. Of course that’s NOT a prediction of what will happen in an election next spring. It’s a description of what would happen at an election now.
Mod Lib:
Where were you and your confident predictions of a Lib election win when we had Newspolls of 50-50 and even the last one? If you were so certain of the trend, why absent yourself from commentary when things momentarily don’t go your way?
Why do you only ever do your seat counts and confident predictions of an Abbott victory when the govt gets dips of bad polling news?
Maybe you aren’t really as confident as you like to project.
Quoting Confessions from the last thread:
[rishane:
Is your brother’s book available in hard copy? I can’t read books online, and in any case don’t have one of those kindle thingies.]
Its not, sorry… we looked into it when I set up the e-book version, but printing costs for a hard-copy version are prohibitive, and he wouldn’t even make anything to give to Guide Dogs, alas.
As for the poll, can’t say I’m too surprised. Its annoying that this will give fodder to yet more endless LABOR IS DOOMED!!! GILLARD IS DOOMED!!! editorials all summer, but then, they were probably going to be written (already written?) already.
Andrew:
The Coalition has held a very clear election winning lead for this entire term.
Yes, there have been individual polls on the ends of the margins of errors and the odd outlier….surprise, surprise. However, the message has been very clear for a very long time. Gillard is in dire straits…
I think the desperation of the Coalition Parliamentary sitting weekhas been forgotten by poll watchers. I also do not believe the polls have gone backward for Labor as the smear was seen through.
So the question is why the move back? Is it the questions asked? Is it the sample polled? Is it samples not polled?
I think these are fair questions to ask with the evidence we have of the last few political weeks. I was not expecting Labor to be in front. I was expecting Labor to improve. Not go backwards.
[I hear Beelzebub has cross-factional support. He’s a good media performer.]
He’s always had a base of support in Caucus.
[Psephos he is certainly finished in terms of prospects of leadership, but is he in finished in seeking revenge? Would he rather see Abbott as PM than the PM win another term? Will there be no more leaks come campaign-time?]
Rudd was born to leak. He is a political collander, he cannot help but leak. Also plot, background and intrigue. He has done all that since the day he arrived in Parliament and he won’t stop now.
what confessions said
a tale of 2 contiguous NewsPolls
1) LNP 46 Green 11 ALP 36 = 2PP 49/51
2) LNP 46 Green 11 ALP 32 = 2PP 46/54
Just wondering where did the ALP 4pts go?
Also wondering on what weightings would apply to the Others/refused to justify a 3pt swing in the 2PP?
rishane:
That’s a shame, but thanks for responding to my comment. I appreciate it.
guytaur I cant see any other explanation but the smear kicking in. Was it possum that said it took a few weeks for issues to wash through? It seems right in this case
sprocket i thought others other than Greens break heavily for the coalition, isnt that right?
[confessions
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib:
Where were you and your confident predictions of a Lib election win when we had Newspolls of 50-50 and even the last one? If you were so certain of the trend, why absent yourself from commentary when things momentarily don’t go your way?]
I was here actually, I come to check out all the poll results I know are due whether they are good or bad.
I said at the time that Gillard was enjoying the “I am woman hear me roar” bounce and it looks like I was right.
Andrew
It was obvious from the QandA audience the smear was seen through.
That is why I am confident the smear did not stick.
It is interesting how all the talk is about the smear against Gillard and there is no mention of the deliberate attack against Abbott (which also appears to be working).
Selective?
Andrew
Another sign the smear did not stick was the media switching to boats.
come on guytaur, how about relying on an established polling organisation ahead of a Q & A audience?
it may be a temporary blip but it is a blip nonetheless.
[He has done all that since the day he arrived in Parliament and he won’t stop now.]
FWIW Mark Latham announced months ago now that the ALP will never get any peace while Rudd remains among its ranks. If he isn’t leader, he’s constantly whiteanting to become leader, and if he is leader he’s constantly whiteanting in order to remain leader.
Fortunately he’ll retire at or just after the next election, and that will be the end of that.
possible dislexia, numbers should be
a tale of 2 contiguous NewsPolls
1) LNP 43 Green 11 ALP 36 = 2PP 49/51
2) LNP 46 Green 11 ALP 32 = 2PP 46/54
mod lib i really hope you’re not equating a 20 year old smear from a pre-parliamentary career with a summary of direct quotes from a parliamentary caree?
Andrew
The Q & A reaction was the same as twitter. So its a good question to ask of pollsters.
Starting with doing what the Americans do. Publish the questions asked of respondents. In what order etc. So people can judge for bias,
“@ABCNews24: Watch the European Union receive the 2012 #Nobel Peace Prize live in Oslo now: http://t.co/AhggUgUN”
Well, I was always confident Abbott would lead the Libs to the next election. I’m even more certain now.
[I was here actually, I come to check out all the poll results I know are due whether they are good or bad.]
If you were you didn’t comment. We all mentioned your absence in withering terms.
And FWIW, tonight is the first time I’ve ever heard your Gillard roar thing you’ve got going – certainly you’ve never mentioned that that I’ve seen.
@BBCNews: “There’s been a witch hunt” – Trigger Happy TV comedian Dom Joly on @2DayFMSydney hoax DJs http://t.co/xH8fFnQJ
sprocket:
That looks better, and accounts for the shedding of ALP primaries to the opposition.
confessions:
I think you will find I did comment….may not have had as many replies as I get on bad ALP polling days though- I grant you that!
I have said the Gillard roar thing so many times I cannot remember….I expect others here will know that I have, but don’t hold your breath waiting for confirmation!!!! We don’t support Liberal voters in any context in these parts!!! Hehe 🙂
No surprise at all.
As I said in my posts at the previous thread.
*night*
confessions@22
confessions, there are software versions of kindle for iPad and also Windows. Probably other versions too.
You should be able to easily download and install a version on whatever device you have.
[Centre
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
No surprise at all.]
We agree Centre
@kevinbonham: http://t.co/w36F14su Do voters care re #AWU? and http://t.co/LCqQZUUV Why PrefPM is rubbish both updated for new polls #auspoll #newspoll
One of my favourite sayings is that things are never as good or as bad as they first seem.
I don’t think the ALP were ever as high as 49, and I don’t think they are as low as 46.
Gorilla
Its 47/48 with the trend towards Labor.
As I said given the politics I do not see Labor going backwards
Mod Lib:
I’m pretty certain you’d get more responses here if you tried to run a Gillard Gone! narrative after a 50-50 Newspoll than if you tried running one after tonight’s polling. 😆
Guytaur
I agree on the 47/48, I’m not a great one for trends or momentum though.
Gorilla
Its a trend moving slowly. So not like a fad, but a real trend. One that confirms that come election time it will be a real competition.
Not a walk over for anyone.
Tony Abbott off to the UK, where he will be meeting Boris Johnson.
They will be having a fracking good time it appears.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/9733518/Ignore-the-doom-merchants-Britain-should-get-fracking.html
Given the Newspoll data on the youth vote. How much towards Green and Labor is not polling mobiles making a difference in percentage terms? One point? Two points?
Add that bias in and it is more competitive than the figures we see puplished show.