The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.
Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.
[guytaur
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 11:15 pm | PERMALINK
Given the Newspoll data on the youth vote. How much towards Green and Labor is not polling mobiles making a difference in percentage terms? One point? Two points?]
The recent evidence from actual elections shows that the polls either hit the nail square on the head, or UNDERESTIMATED the LNP vote.
ML
Not the case with the ACT election. Was that bad polling methodology or was that due to Mobiles being excluded not showing how tight the election really was?
What we do know is polling done at election time is different to polling when it is not election time. The minds of voters being focussed at election time.
@kevinbonham: unlikely #AWU would cause real 3 pt shift while having no real impact on leader scores #auspol #Newspoll
[guytaur
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 11:21 pm | PERMALINK
ML
Not the case with the ACT election.]
How was it not the case with the ACT election?
The polling UNDERESTIMATED the LNP vote in that case.
Lol, you leftards are so desperate.
ML
Yes I agree that poll did underestimate the LNP vote in the ACT election. Why?
The only reason I mention Mobile phone exclusion and likely effect on polls is due to data we know about. US evidence of progressive voters are likely to be mobile only and thus excluded.
No actual studies done in Australia.
Entirely predictable that Psephos and Confessions launch another round of Rudd hate commentary.
Labor’s going backwards, and that’s their usual response: it’s all Rudd’s fault, even though he’s now a lowly backbencher.
Who’s leading the Labor Party? Not Rudd……it’s your poster girl for feminism Julia Gillard and her able lieutenant Wayne Swan. 😀
guytaur:
No studies?
There have been 5 studies:
Vic election
NSW election
Qld election
NT election
ACT election
Vic: underestimated LNP vote
NSW: spot on
Qld: spot on
NT: underestimated LNP vote
ACT: underestimated LNP vote
If you think having more mobile phones would have increased the LNP vote in polls (making them more accurate) that is fine but that isn’t going to explain away the current Newspoll.
The US election polling has more problems than mobiles….it is all about demographic errors in polling models and the likely versus registered voters.
That is where Nate Silver (and I, if I am not too modest 🙂 ) got it right and those like Dick Morris, Charles Krauthammer and Gallup got it very, very wrong).
Who was it in here who earlier today or last night claimed to have a huge scoop that Labor was ahead in Newspoll?
Wrong again. 😆
ML
Current Newspoll is explained by manipulation. Manipulation to make sure that results end up at the best for a favoured by paymaster side from the MOE.
[Julia Gillard and her able lieutenant Wayne Swan]
The backbench have a lovely Xmas New Year break ahead of them contemplating the albatross around their necks!
Galaxy then
Essential then
Newspoll all identical at
54-46
ML
Imagine the public perception if the result was that the 2pp is between 46 and 50 for one side or other.
Same result different way of saying it.
[guytaur
Posted Monday, December 10, 2012 at 11:32 pm | PERMALINK
ML
Current Newspoll is explained by manipulation. Manipulation to make sure that results end up at the best for a favoured by paymaster side from the MOE.]
I am afraid all of this conspiracy theory stuff doesn’t really interest me.
The polls were great for the ALP at times in recent history. I have a sneaking suspicion there was none of this doubt about polling in those times were there?
Back to back ALP governments federally and at the state level for years….was there discussion about a media conspiracy then?
ML
I did say at that time that I thought the polls were great, but probably too high on MOE.
ML
As for media conspiracy it is not a conspiracy when facts have been revealed, See Leveson.
Not surprised for the past month has properly just confirmed to people why they have either supported Jules or Tone.
The PM was never going to look good with the why she performed as a lawyer just as Tone is never going to look good carping.
Earlier in the year I predicted the Libs looked like winning with about 85 seats and while I think the Government is traveling better than 12 months ago but in truth while the economy is under performing and with a looming budget deficit the next election is Tone’s to lose
[Current Newspoll is explained by manipulation.]
meH, not so sure of that. The polls they bounce up and down, some more than others. Looks to me like yup, there is a flattening out happening, at the moment. There is ground to make up next year, but that was always going to be the case and in fact, the ALP is in a good position to do that. Remember, they actually DO policy. The Fibs have trouble even spelling it.
mexican
Economy under performing compared to whom?
China is showing signs of revival too with figures revealed yesterday.
In the modern world of social media there is little to no excuse for pollies blaming the media.
Bad tradesman blame their tools.
imacca
I am sure of it. The piper calls the tune.
mexican
Yeah so the prank call saga and the Leveson report about media are just figments of our imagination.
Guytaur
Under performing compared to five years ago. All the economy is slowing and is under performing.
Yes its the best in the developed world but it is slowing and people are seeing slowing business.
Even Wayne Swan has said the economy is slowing
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
stanny@61
Yes and Galaxy leans Lib (albeit only by a point or so), Essential has been leaning Lib slightly lately and Newspoll has been leaning slightly Labor. So normally Newspoll would not agree with them. It’s a 54 with a very strong whiff of 53.
[Current Newspoll is explained by manipulation. Manipulation to make sure that results end up at the best for a favoured by paymaster side from the MOE.]
Oh dear. Labor is behind in the polls, Guytaur. Get used to it and stop making an ass of yourself. Can Labor make up 4% by election day? Yes. Will it be helped by paranoid silliness like this? No. Go and work off your frustrations by doing some letterboxing.
Exit.
China is doing excelty what its Government said it would do. It has no intention of returning to 13% percent growth.
Guytaur: your standard response to a bad poll for Labor is that it’s been manipulated or subject to sampling error or they ignored people with mobile phones.
Why not just acknowledge that Labor really is 8 points behind?
Psephos
See my 45
I think its a bit like when your football side loses its sometimes easier to blame the umpires.
I still think the Government can win the next election and in the past six months it has been performing better but we are going to need to see some improvement in the economy.
I think the Government has been better at highlighting the positives but the business community just seems unable or unwilling to get out of its soft spot.
Government can only do so much.
In parting: see my beautiful election map of Lithuania!
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/l/lithuania/lithuaniamapindex.shtml
[Entirely predictable that Psephos and Confessions launch another round of Rudd hate commentary.]
Why is it predictable? I’ve made similar comments about Rudd after almost every poll for god knows how long, without your crystal-meth inspired HAPPY FACE bleating all over it.
What gives now?
That is a very colorful map.
I’m wondering if it would be possible to put next to the party names if the party is Left, Centre or Right
TLM
I say this because I don’t believe Labor has gone backward over this period. It does not equate with the politics we have seen.
The confidence of Labor the desperation of the Coalition.
The points I have made about mobile phones holds true even when good polls come out for Labor.
Softening economic conditions and unfavourable political climates in NSW and Tasmania are probably influencing the polls. Much will depend on how the economy performs in the three quarters – the labour market and household incomes have to hold up!
Guytaur yes if you are bedded to one side then yes your party has looked good in the past month.
But to the dis-interested voter faced with slowing business, what they see is a PM that was a sloppy Lawyer (rightly or wrongly) and an opposition that lacks any real vision.
The voters are disgruntled with what they are seeing.
mexican
Your analysis is wrong. The smear has worked in Labors favour. Your sloppy lawyer meme has not held. On the contrary the sloppiness of a so called forensic investigation has been revealed.
Guytaur is a lot more switched on than many so called insiders on here.
Nate Silver was talking recently about the perils and inaccuracies of internal polling in part due to the desire to produce good results.
These comments need to be absorbed and understood in a broader context.
There is no positive imperative for News Limited to produce a good result for the ALP in the last poll of the year.
The poll is consistent with other polls and it appears there is a softening of the labor vote.
It is of note however that the magic Newspoll 4% primary vote swing has come into play again.
Maybe some of the statisticians out there could work out the probablities of the primary vote of greens, alp, coalition and others can all, within a four month window, have a loss/gain of over half a million primary votes in a two week period.
Why would Guytaur admit the polls might be right, FFS this is a guy who thinks an ABC audience is a true representation of the australian public. Talk about living in denial.
Psephos@80
Very nice! Not a fan of Four Colours?
Gough 1 have you ever considered maybe the other newspolls were wrong after all none of the olther polls had it as close as newspoll, but hey that wouldnt suit your view of the world would it so that cant be right.
Guytaur I think you missed the rightly or wrongly bit.
The only thing that matters is economy security and things are flat even Wayne Swan as acknowledged this.
I agree with Kevin Bohman I think this Newspoll flatters the Coalition by a point or two where their recent polls seem to come up with a Coalition primary vote a bit skinny. Looking like a genuine 2% move back to the Coalition … for now.
Oh well no chance for MT anytime soon.
I think the guy on Sky News was right, this is not an endorsement of the opposition.
about another election soon
+++++++++++++
Next Month the Israeli elections may set in motion a series of events in the ruling extreme-right-wing Likud Party which will …according to Uri Avernery..an”old” Labor Zionist writer… …make possible the removal of Netanyahu …in favour of Libermann..the far-right Russian-born Foreign Minister
An interesting story of Libermann’s bid for power soon…and how will the apologists for Israel cope with a new PM from the far-right…,as Israel becomes even more isolated ??
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Cold-Revenge-by-Uri-Avnery-121209-208.htm
Mexican
Swan said no such thing. He said there are problems ahead we have to plan for.
You have been listening to the economists that keep predicting a rise in unemployment and are then “surprised” when unemployment drops.
“@GenGusface: peeps- I cant find one instance where the ppm fell on both measures and the 2pp rose- anyone care to prove me wrong ☻”
Actually Wayne Swan did said that the economy has slowed in the second part of the year.
Mexican
Growth slowed. Not Flat. Are you Joe Hockey saying growth is flat?
There is no point arguing about poll numbers and poll trends: they are what they are.
Conspiracy theorists should focus on the (con)text and order of the questions asked.