Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  1. [Remember, she was a far more successful lawyer than anyone on the other side of the chamber, which is part of the reason for the venom to begin with (we hate those who outperform us in our own field…when they show they can outperform us in ANY field, well….)]

    Not sure of their relative legal histories, but that wouldn’t surprise me. JG has certainly been a more successful politician than JB. 🙂

    Interesting that the PM seems to have translated her lawyers skills into being a fine negotiator, team leader, and politician. Bishop… well….hasn’t.

    I have always thought that on the Fiberal side of the house people like Bishop and Turnbull see the parliament as almost a court room and behave like that. As an adversarial place, rather than a place where people should at least try to seek consensus.

    Certainly the current crop of Fibs would have been totally incapable of governing without a majority in both houses.

  3. Apparently Hopper is livid that James McGrath got the second LNP Senate spot instead of Matthew Canavan.

    The Old Nats in the LNP were told Canavan would get number two and the Liberal McGrath would get number three, but for some brain explosion of a reason they reneged. Strange times in LNP land.

  7. Scringler

    [dinner tonight is two bean sprouts, a slice of tomato, a dill cucumber ]
    The choice of ingredients is impeccable but bloody hell the quantity is a worry. Two bean sprouts and a slice of cucumber and tomato looks like an anorexic’s dream recipe 🙂

  8. imacca@701

    I have always thought that on the Fiberal side of the house people like Bishop and Turnbull see the parliament as almost a court room and behave like that. As an adversarial place, rather than a place where people should at least try to seek consensus.

    When they return to power at some stage, the libs will expect and demand consensus and co-operation. Rules and convention are only there for Labor to follow, the libs just do whatever they want.

  10. scrigler

    [Saw a beautiful sight the other day. A large kangaroo hopping gently]

    About 10 years ago I had a much loved cat who used to accompany me to the garage door when I was going out and meet me on the return.

    One morning a lost kangaroo came past and turned back past.

    Cat, while hiding behind the door post, put on a neck about a foot long.

  11. [Sorry Psephos, that cannot be.
    It doesn’t fit with the adulation of Julia meme.]

    That’s because I don’t adulate Gillard or anyone else in politics. I have given a better informed account of Gillard’s errors than anyone else at this forum.

  15. [Is there are a chance of a Lib National Split?]

    I doubt a formal one, but a de facto one is happening in slow motion. Newman and the LNP are already being accused of being Brisbane – centric and ignoring the regions.

    If this bites, over time, Katter will pick up the old safe National seats, Labor will regain the large regional centres and Brisbane the LNP will be left with the dregs.

    Abbott killed off One Nation to avoid this, I wonder how they will deal with Katter, laughing at him will not work.

  16. I think that Psephos meant to say was that in his opinion “the best lawyers in Parliament are Turnbull and Dreyfus by a long way.” Sounds a bit pompous without that qualification.

  17. “What a wonderful creature!”

    I looked closely at a joey once. It was being carried by a WIRES volunteer. I couldn’t believe how pretty it was. Its legs were so dainty and elegant, and its claws looked as if they had been polished with different shades of nail polish. A gorgeous creature indeed!

  18. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    All 26 of 26 economists expect at least 1 more cut in this cycle….

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Bloomberg survey has 15 out of 26 economists expecting a 25bp cut from RBA on 4 December

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    The world’s 3rd largest economy has some shocking fiscal challenges. Trying to avoid downgrade to junk status http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-24/india-pledges-to-cut-deficit-cap-debt-to-avert-downgrade.html …

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Big data week ahead: Top of the pops will be private sector CAPEX and credit. AUD open tomorrow around 1.0460.

  19. @ruawake/715

    Funny thing is, my mum outrightly blames Newman for our business practically stalling since LNP got government 7 months ago.

    You can tell she really hate the man.

  20. Psephos@711


    Sorry Psephos, that cannot be.
    It doesn’t fit with the adulation of Julia meme.


    That’s because I don’t adulate Gillard or anyone else in politics. I have given a better informed account of Gillard’s errors than anyone else at this forum.

    I agree with you.
    I was referring to others.

  25. [Funny thing is, my mum outrightly blames Newman for our business practically stalling since LNP got government 7 months ago.]

    Its probably true as well, ignoring the public sector cuts and job losses, the Newman Govt has virtually shut up shop. Departments seem to be frozen and no decisions are being made at all. They can’t even order office supplies out of fear.

  26. Centre@724


    The best leaders in parliament are Gillard and JBishop by a long way

    To what extent is that opinion driven by bets you have placed?

    The corrupting influence of gambling exposed.

  29. [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder
    Memo to self: if you ever link to a News Ltd story that vindicates the govt in any way, get a screenshot of it ]

    I take it News have made further ‘refinements’ to the Wilson story?

  32. bemused

    The pocket will be a lot healthier but has absolutely no influence, bias or conflict of interest on my part whatsoever. 😛 😀

  34. [Kindly don’t tell me what I meant to say.]

    There’s a lot of that around here.

    You don’t work in Parliament any more, Psephy old boy.

    You need to get a tougher hide and get used to being just another one of the gang.

  37. Actually I hope the attacks by Mesma on Julia impress her colleagues otherwise she has been sold a great big dummy (harming her leadership credentials) by the monkey :mrgreen: I reckon.

  38. [Television home renovation shows have fuelled a do-it-yourself craze that campaigners fear will lead to the next wave of asbestos victims – many of whom will be women.

    The president of the Asbestos Diseases Foundation of Australia, Barry Robson, says shows like The Block, The Renovators and Better Homes and Gardens have been embraced by women who have taken up DIY renovation with a gusto.

    But in the process, many have unwittingly become exposed to potentially deadly, mesothelioma-causing asbestos fibres present in just about all homes built before 1987.

    “Unfortunately we’re heading for a third wave of victims and their families because home renovation is getting so big,” Mr Robson told AAP at the launch of a nationwide awareness campaign on Sunday.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/15468063/asbestos-risk-for-female-renovators/

  39. Psephos

    I know it’s hard to believe but I have been reliably informed by lawyers that Mary-Jo Fisher was a brilliant IR lawyer. She was so good that Reith let her do all the legal IR for his portfolio without her relocating from SA, which is unheard of.

  42. BB

    [Psephy]

    Are there some special rules I don’t know about for people who know which direction to the Ministerial Wing after you’re signed in to PH?

    If so, I qualify and can claim many more Hansard mentions than shows.

  45. How is asbestos being disposed of?

    As far as I am aware, it is simply being buried which means it still exists in the environment and at some future date could become exposed again.

    The only way I know of to truly get rid of it is high temperature incineration which turns it into a glass like substance which is harmless.

    But I have not heard of this being done in Australia. I fear we take the cheap, expedient solution and bury problems for the future.

  47. bemused

    This is the method you speak of. No idea if we do this here in Australia

    [Plasma arc destruction of ACM could provide an effective, economical, and timely solution to the asbestos disposal problem. The high temperatures achievable with plasma arc torch technology can melt and vitrify asbestos and ACM into a chemically inert, glasslike residue that may be safely placed in any landfill.
    At plasma torch furnace temperatures above 1,300*C, 25 pounds of pure chrysotile asbestos in metal canisters were fed into the furnace over 35 minutes. Furnace residence times varied from 6 to 4i minutes. The vitrified asbestos residue, metal canister residue, residues found inside the furnace, and air samples inside and outside the process gas stream were tested for asbestos fibers. The amounts found were negligible by EPA standards, demonstrating that plasma arc technology can be an environmentally safe, efficient, and effective method of destroying and vitrifying pure chrysotile asbestos.]

  49. [Are there some special rules I don’t know about for people who know which direction to the Ministerial Wing after you’re signed in to PH?]

    No-one knows that. Every night at APH they change everything around so that no-one can learn the layout or ever really know where they are. They do this for security reasons, I believe. People who’ve worked there for ten years still get lost every day.

  50. victoria @ 747

    Yes.

    I don’t know if it is the only one, but certainly some such process is the only one to truly rid us of asbestos.

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