Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  1. How is asbestos being disposed of?

    It is taken to the local tip in bags and dumped out like normal garbage then maybe covered over with normal garbage.
    And an exorbitant fee is charged to dispose of asbestos,when really nothing special is done.

  2. [Scringler
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 4:34 pm | PERMALINK
    My prediction is that PM Ms Julia Gillard will emerge from this smear campaign smelling of parsley, rosemary and thyme. And roses. It’s crap.

    +++

    Saw a beautiful sight the other day. A large kangaroo hopping gently down my street. What a wonderful creature!
    I’ve seen plenty of ‘roos and wallabies, but it was odd to
    see one here in an urban area.etc

    We get quite a few kangaroos around here but I only live in a village, when I was going down to Port Macquarie for the PBers get together, was taking a shortcut and almost hit a wallaby in the car. Jumped out of the bushes by the side of the road. Have seen two old men kangaroos boxing each other down on the sports oval a couple of time.
    How are you going, haven’t seen you posting here for a while?

  3. Joe6pack@751


    How is asbestos being disposed of?

    It is taken to the local tip in bags and dumped out like normal garbage then maybe covered over with normal garbage.
    And an exorbitant fee is charged to dispose of asbestos,when really nothing special is done.

    That is truly despicable, but pretty much what I feared.

    A real non-solution.

  4. Thats all that happens.
    They are supposed to dig a hole and bury it but 9 times out of 10 it just goes to the tip face ,dumped, then push a bit of rubbish over it. Bags are usually blue plastic that are heavy duty but being plastic they can rip.
    Trust me this is how it’s done.

  5. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s links to a union slush fund and the continued flow of asylum-seeker boats will dominate what is sure to be a fiery final week of federal parliament for 2012.

    While the government will seek to shift the focus to its schools and disability reforms, the opposition will do everything it can to ratchet up the pressure on Ms Gillard over the Australian Workers Union scandal.

    The coalition will intensify its demands for Ms Gillard to make a full explanation to parliament about her role in setting up a fund that was used as a slush fund by her then-boyfriend, AWU official Bruce Wilson.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/slush-fund-and-boats-to-dominate-the-week-20121125-2a19y.html

    Great. More sideshow fluff for the pea-brains in the press gallery.

  6. You’re right, pseph, of course – Turnbull was a more successful lawyer than JG (and I deliberately said ‘on the other side of the chamber’, although I must admit I had Roxon in mind).

    Thinking in terms of women, I must say – Mirabella didn’t do well at law, and Julia creamed her in student politics, as well.

  7. victoria, poroti, Ctar1,

    Two bean shoots is a bit of a lie, an Abbott moment. Many bean shoots, I should of said. ‘Twas a joke.

    As in: “Of course I eat healthy stuff. I had a mango … once.”

    Lately, I’ve taken up – yet again – Asian cooking. Wok stuff.

    Cooking for one is difficult. Small portions, but nourishing and tasty.

    Also cooking pies. Short-crust base, puff pastry on top. Brush with egg or milk.

    Blind bake short crust until lightly golden. Use lard to grease baking dish.

    My favored filling is steak and kidney, but some gag and run away.

    For my sins, I once worked, briefly, in a renowned pie shop. The proprietor was as mad as a cut snake, but the pies were excellent.

    His trick was the short-crust pastry base. That held the whole thing together. His pies did not fall apart in one’s lap and burn the personal dick off. A breakthrough, I say.

    +++

    Dogs panting heavily. Will have to turn the cooling thingo on now …

    And the bean shoots are winking suggestively at me.

  8. [I can’t imagine Mesma as a lawyer taking on a case that required genuine passion to succeed.]

    I can’t imagine Sophie being competent at anything, much less lawyering.

  9. Now try to explain to OS friends or relos that NOT out LBW if it hits outside OFF or ball lands outside leg. Quantum Mechanics is easier

  10. victoria & BH,
    I missed your post about your son. Hopefully things have taken a turn for the better for all of you. Best wishes.

    Thank you for your concern. 🙂

    Tomorrow is the big day! Well, the first big day. #2 Son goes into Westmead Hospital to have 4 Impacted Wisdom Teeth out.

    Then we have to wait 3-6 months for the cavities to fill with bone. Then he goes in again for Orthognathic Surgery on his Upper and Lower Jaw. Plus his cheek bones will be broken and realigned to suit his newly reconstructed jaw.

    He was actually brave enough to suggest they fix his broken nose(acquired via Rugby and school sports), while they were at it.

    I think he might live to regret it. Or maybe not, maybe it’s the smart thing to do. Get it all over and done with at the one time.

    We’ll see I guess.

    Anyway, Nursemaid to a big baby will be my job title this week. 🙂

  11. Just Me @# 672
    ”Agree that being a bogan is about attitudes and beliefs, not money.
    Pride in willful ignorance is the main characteristic.”

    It is not limited to age or profession. The one likely common denominator appears to be an addiction to listening to shock jocks like Jones and Hadley. They just repeat what the shock jocks say word for word and there is nothing you can do to persuade them otherwise. The are experts in all areas of human endeavor and know more about any given topic (in their mind) than any other living person.

  12. J6p
    I’m afraid I’m a bit sentimental about the Oval. I will wait until it is all finished before I can properly form an opinion.

  13. Well the LNP is getting right wing indeed. CLive Palmer leaves the Party. Abbott does nothing. So no money for Federal parties as well.
    Now a member defects from LNP to Bob Katter.

    We have seen Slipper leave and become an Independent enticed by a carrot job.
    The moderates have been driven out.
    No wonder the Coalition have been screaming look over there a unicorn.

    Its the Coalition in trouble not Labor. The unicorn story of smear was put to number two by Qld LNP division on News 24. Hope it will start singing faster .

  14. This response has been intriguing me all day. I’ve whipped out a dictionary and a couple of linguistics texts, and had a go at it:

    Fran Barlow@298


    I’m totally in favour of principled compromise, as I’ve repeatedly made clear. It’s rotten compromises that are wrong.

    I think this means that it’s ok to compromise on your position as long as it’s an indulgence and not actually a compromise. I’m only guessing though, as the difference between ‘principled compromise’ and ‘rotten compromise’ is obviously subjective.

    This means, as far as I can tell, that where the principles of the three parties differ, no compromise position can possibly be reached.

    You’re also wrong on ‘tribalism’. Tribalism involves subordinating all other principles to one overarching principle — the perceived needs of your tribe, typically (but not always) manifest in the pronouncements of the tribal chieftain — whether that happens to be Cardinal Pell or Julia Gillard or Christine Milne or Tony Abbott. That in turn frees the acolyte from the obligation to honour other obligations to which the tribalist might normally feel bound.

    I stand corrected. ‘Tribalism’ is not putting party before principle. It is putting your party, in the form of its leader, before your principles. I can see where I went wrong there.

    All human politics and all work this side of the advent of universal abundance and freedom is by definition, a compromise. We humans trade in advantage all the time. The need is to reconcile that conduct with coherent and ethical principles.

    I don’t really know what this is or why it is here. I guess it’s saying we’re not perfect and this world is not perfect, but we have to live with it. And just by gracing the world with their presence, Greens are doing quite enough compromise thank you very much.

    Misery and loss is unavoidable in the foreseeable future. It’s not within the scope of existing resources to satisfy everyone’s want, or even everyone’s need. This is not merely an artefact of scarcity, but of the maldistribution of political power, which exaggerates the inequitable settlements of burdens. That is a reality that us first worlders cannot ignore. It is its own fact on the ground and I accept it. Democratic societies demand negotiation and the powerful always have a decisive say.

    This looks like socialism or communism or something. I was under the impression the Greens were primarily an environmental party. I don’t mind, but are Greens supporters aware of this? I don’t know how many people that vote Green are socialists by nature. Perhaps they could change their name to the Greens Communist Party and see how they go?

    On the other hand, there’s no need to pander to the culture attached to inequity. We ought to say candidly what we can and can’t do in practice, and why, rather than resort to cognitive dissonance and implausible apologias.

    I don’t think this is saying we should be prioritising refugees already in camps over those who can afford to pay large amounts of money in order to short-circuit the journey. But I feel it should be.

  15. victoria,

    No, have not moved. Still up past Bendigo. Hard clay but plants thriving. A move is not on the cards in the foreseeable future.

    Problem of the dogs remains. Can’t travel. Might just hunker down and plant a fig tree.

  16. Questions which the MSM could investigate ( But I bet they wont)
    Did Julie Bishop know Ralph Blewitt in her career in the West/ Any connection of AWU/Hardies for example? When did She give a full t statement about her role re Wittenoom?
    If her defence was ‘I was acting as a lawyer’ why isn’t that ok for Julia Gillard to say?
    Who is funding Ralph Blewitt?
    Did Nick Staynt Browne have any reason to keep almost 20 yera old paperwork? Seems a Bit OCD to say the least.

  17. c@tmomma

    My son only had his four wisdom teeth removed and that was torture!!!

    All the best to your son, and strength to you!!

  18. Catalyst

    I recall a bludger posting comment that Paul Bongiorno mentioned on orogram that Blewitt was being brought back to Australia. Dont know if he mentioned by whom

  19. [Did Nick Staynt Browne have any reason to keep almost 20 yera old paperwork? Seems a Bit OCD to say the least.]

    And of all the documents he had seen during his career at S&G why this one? One thing about this document is that it is purported to be a fax. Fax paper in the 90’s tended to blacken reasonably quickly – a 20 year old document on fax paper should be in pretty poor condition by now. IMHO.

  20. How is Asbestos disposed of? They just keep making her deputy and hope she’ll eventually get bored, leave her seat to a nice young man and let the men get on with running the Party.

  21. I don’t know if a link to this article by Paul Krugman has been posted before but it is well worth reading. The Twinkie Manifesto

    Krugman outlines how in the US, median incomes doubled between 1947 & 1973, something unmatched before or since.

    At the same time, top income earners faced marginal income taxes of up to 91% and corporate taxes were double what they were now.

  22. Joe6p & BK, I do have a lot of sentimental opinion about the oval. But, being the times we live in, I am also excited about its future. I have seen the plans and, if they are executed as advertised, it looks very promising.

    So, while I’ll miss the old oval, I look forward to the new oval. (In a way, it’s like the current evolution of the city overall)

  23. Catalyst

    With respect to JBishop giving a full statement re her work re Wittenoom. I too want to know when she supposedly made this statement as claimed by Abbott last week

  24. [Psephos
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    Of all the tough issues the Gillard government has dealt with over the past year, the only one they are not now on top of in a political sense is boat arrivals. This is still toxic for Labor and can still cost Labor government. The government is still not willing to face the fact that there is no “regional solution” to boat arrivals. There is only one solution: announcing that no-one who arrives by boat will ever get a visa.]

    So instead of five years on welfair, it’s forever. Oh ya thats a good reason not to come. This issue has probable had enough half baked ideas thrown at it.

  25. Newspoll may come tomorrow night.

    Either way I will predict 52-48 Coalition with Abbott’s dismally low approval up a couple of points and Gillard’s the opposite, narrative of the week ‘Abbott has avoided the spotlight din the all important final week due to improving poll numbers’.

  26. I thought it particularly distasteful to hear Julie Bishop on Sky this morning stating that Bruce Wilson had a “confession” to make to Police.

    What knowledge of a crime which has been committed by Bruce Wilson does she have? She wouldn’t say.

    That’s because the Police have gone over this matter with a fine tooth comb for the best part of 20 years, off and on, and found nothing to charge anyone with.

    Not that that particular fact will stop the pit of vipers in the Opposition from making all manner of bald assertions, and demanding the Prime Minister of Australia waste her precious time, and, yet again, that of the parliament, addressing this scurrilous scuttlebutt being peddled as something way more significant than it actually is.

    Not only that, but like a Mandelbrot Curve, we will have the wastes of space on the Opposition benches parsing and paring every syllable and sentence uttered by the PM for hidden meaning. Which they will then shop to their mates in the media, who will be able to provide instant analysis for the rolling 24 hour news cycle.

    And on and on and on it will go. Ad bleedin’ nauseum.

    Because that’s all this Opposition has.
    * Unparalleled viciousness towards their political opponents.
    * A Born To Rule attitude that enables them to abandon their conscience in their pursuit of power.
    * A complete disregard for the facts.
    * And a complicit media prepared to do whatever it takes to aid and abet them.

    It’s worse than Democracy For Sale. It’s Democracy sent to Hell in a handbasket to satisfy the agenda of a megalomaniacal media proprietor and his co-conspirator, the narcissistic, sociopathic, religious conservative zealot of an Opposition Leader. Who has, in his 3 years in the job, completely poisoned the well of decent parliamentary practice in this country, and turned the Coalition he leads into a Policy-Free, Truth-Free Zone hell bent on power at all costs.

    He, his Deputy Leader, and all the people who enable them, should be ashamed of themselves.

    But this is impossible because they are completely and utterly shameless.

    What a debauched and low down, dirty lot of scurvy dogs they are.

    Not that they care a jot.

    My mother always used to say, “You end up getting the face you deserve.” Well, when I saw Julie Bishop’s sour mien on Sky TV this morning that phrase immediately came to mind. The lust for the most powerful drug of all, Power, tends to distort and pervert you from the inside out like that.

  27. [Either way I will predict 52-48 Coalition with Abbott’s dismally low approval up a couple of points and Gillard’s the opposite, narrative of the week ‘Abbott has avoided the spotlight din the all important final week due to improving poll numbers’.]

    Agreed. Narrative of the week in all media outlets has been “GILLARD NEEDS TO ANSWER QUESTIONS” and it’s been the clean lieutenants, not Abbott who have pushed it. Some of it will stick.

    This will be exacerbated by the usual suspects using this poll shift to basically push a “Tony the comeback kid/Gillard finished for good!” talking point.

    What will be the question is, if all the allegations are cleared and what not, will it be sufficiently reported or will they just leave it at “questions to answer” and not say anymore, leaving the long-term impression of a corrupt government?

  28. gloryconsequence@785


    Newspoll may come tomorrow night.

    Either way I will predict 52-48 Coalition with Abbott’s dismally low approval up a couple of points and Gillard’s the opposite, narrative of the week ‘Abbott has avoided the spotlight din the all important final week due to improving poll numbers’.

    I think you are likely to be right. But who is fooled? Everyone can see Abbott’s leadership is terminal – but he just won’t lie down and die 🙂

  29. Emo posted timetables regarding the last time opposition members asked questions related to their portfolios.
    Some were staggering.
    What the hell are we paying these people for?
    They have spent the last 5 years partaking in fraudulent claims and chasing smut and smear attempting to cheat their way into government.
    That in itself has meat for a good journo to chew on.

  30. Can anyone enlighten me?
    Setting aside the question of whether or not Julia Gillard had any involvement in it, what is the fraud that is supposed to have taken place?

    I have not read anything anywhere describing what I would think constitutes a fraud.

    So what are these idiots going on about?

  31. I think Newspoll will be dire for Abbott, his approval will not improve and his disapproval will fall lower.

    People are turned off by the slimey crap being dished up by the Liberal Party, it will hurt them.

  32. Finns #761 – and further, if struck outside off and the ball is going on to hit, only out if not playing a shot …

    As a cricket umpire I am very good at the rules and trying my best to apply them, just crap at seeing or hearing what actually happened , there is in fact a facebook page dedicated to this point …

  33. [Setting aside the question of whether or not Julia Gillard had any involvement in it, what is the fraud that is supposed to have taken place?]

    That people spent money other people gave to them, is the claim, I think.

  34. ruawake@796


    Setting aside the question of whether or not Julia Gillard had any involvement in it, what is the fraud that is supposed to have taken place?


    That people spent money other people gave to them, is the claim, I think.

    It is commonplace for teams of union officials to have re-election funds to which they contribute and solicit donations.

    So what?

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