Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  1. [
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 1:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Finns

    There was this unique game of dice that I had a winning streak on over a couple of nights.

    Of course they just happened to roll the right way as the probabilities will always work against you in the end.

    As for your question; not just the casino]

    Assume of course you meant the deck quoits competition, that you participated in?

  2. bemused

    It will be interesting to see the changes in the movie. For instance the owner of “nigger” appears to have met a very different fate to what was generally thought.

    [But now a researcher for a new film of the RAF raids on the Ruhr Valley in 1943, which is being made by Lord of the Rings director Sir Peter Jackson, has unearthed a taped confession made by a Lancaster gunner who says he shot down Wing Cdr Gibson’s Mosquito fighter-bomber.]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2047476/Dambusters-legend-Guy-Gibson-shot-BRITISH-airman.html#ixzz2DCY3E2rv

  3. [Player One
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 2:25 pm | PERMALINK
    mari@653

    Assume of course you meant the deck quoits competition, that you participated in?

    Never heard it called that before!]

    Never mind neither had I, but thought I would throw it in the ring? 😉

  4. Darren Laver@644


    Oi! Some of my best friends (and relatives) are bogans.

    Salt of the earth.

    Look at ‘Kath and Kim’ – they value family. Women are equals.

    Yes, there are whingers. Are you seriously telling me there aren’t in all classes of society?

    And of course there are ‘bad’ bogans. Gina Reinhart is one.


    Oh yes, we all have a little bogan in all of us — it’s how we manage it that is the true test of one’s character…

    Gotta agree with that Darren.

    And some who meet many of the sterotypical bogan criteria are good people with a heart of gold.

    A friend of mine was one.

  5. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 2:30 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    possibly, not to my recollection, maybe, can’t recall, it was a long time ago]
    Must have been a long time ago, as didn’t think momentous occasions like scoring first place in deck quoits would fade too quickly from one’s mind 😉

  6. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 2:39 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    well I never received any first place prizemoney if I had of finished first that’s for sure.]

    Guess that is why you can’t remember then??:)

  7. Interesting that at the time the first Dam Busters was made the actual process of getting the bomb spinning so that it would skip like a stone was still secret.

    The on-board mechanism is not shown in the movie.

    The bravery of these men – bacon and eggs for breakfast – after coming home from flying a thin aluminium can cannot be understated.

    Sad about Guy Gibson, but what I read of one of his books, he was man who lived on the edge.

    I did not know about the possible shooting down of him by one of his own on a Pathfinder mission.

  8. I have a (free) copy of the Sunday Telegraph and the placement of articles is interesting. It looks as if the “Julia Didn’t Know” story was a last minute decision. That story has page 1 headlines, linked to text on page 9.

    The original ‘Bad Julia’ stories are still in the paper on page 9 “Gillard to be Grilled on Union Matters” and page 43 “The Julia I [Ralph Blewitt] Knew”.

    There is also the curious case of why the “Julia Didn’t Know” story appeared on Saturday night, in time for all other media to pick it up before Sunday morning. It seems not to be an accident but a deliberate ploy to influence the political process. That is, it appeared after most/all Newspoll interviews were done but before Parliament meets on Monday. If this is the case, it suggests that Murdoch media wanted to influence public opinion but not to allow plain sailing for the Opposition in Parliament.

    Also suggesting a last minute decision to publish, the child’s face (in the accompanying photo) is pixellated in the online version but not the dead tree version.

  9. [I have a (free) copy of the Sunday Telegraph ]

    Yes, they do have to give them away these days.

    At my local shop they try and give me one and I politely inform them that I do not have a cat and therefore have no kitty litter to line…

    They laugh and say “that’s a good one — others just say they prefer toilet paper!”

  10. citizen

    Or it could simply be a case of Blewitt being more of a problem than he is worth, and they are covering their arses by reporting what wilson, his ex wife and sister have to say about Blewitt.

  11. Darren Laver@667


    I have a (free) copy of the Sunday Telegraph


    Yes, they do have to give them away these days.

    At my local shop they try and give me one and I politely inform them that I do not have a cat and therefore have no kitty litter to line…

    They laugh and say “that’s a good one — others just say they prefer toilet paper!”

    Good ones Darren.
    Mine, about the Herald-Sun used to be: “I wouldn’t wrap my garbage in it – it would taint the garbage.: 👿

  12. My Shakespearean English is a bit rusty. Did Bilbo Shakey mean something was wrong with his internet? Because of something Shorten did? ❓
    [Willy Shakes ‏@IAM_SHAKESPEARE

    Yet to be known shortens my made intent. ]

    (from the Twitter feed of the works of Shakespeare.)

  13. To use “his” in place of “Government” is weird (is Bernard OK?). The possessive pronoun for an organisation is “its”.

  14. For those wishing more learnings about bogans try this site. Number 254 “Outrage”

    [The bogan is a multi-faceted beast, hard to easily pigeonhole, which is why such a task requires an exhaustive categorisation of over 250 different things that it likes. But if one were challenged to boil it all down to a single adjective, surely one that would sit near the top of any list is ‘angry’.
    The bogan is angry. But this anger is inchoate, ill-directed and convulsive. What the bogan needs is a rage vector. Something through which it can channel all of this pent-up fury and unleash it in a flaming burst of irate sanctimony.]

    http://thingsboganslike.com/

    Bonus

    [Bogan baby names]

    http://thingsboganslike.com/a-bogue-by-any-other-name/

  15. Sigh. Work Experience girl doing the Sunday ABC24 political commentary said, “The Prime Minister has been under pressure from months and months of allegations.”

    There has not been one allegation. Ever!

  16. [I was once the ship’s doctor on the Fairstar – an experience I will not forget or ever want to repeat.]

    Lordy, Lordy, OC – the stories you could tell 🙂

  17. [Premier Newman, speaking on Sunday, said he was disappointed and dismayed by Mr Hopper’s decision but denied it reflected badly on his government.

    Mr Newman described Mr Hopper’s reasons for leaving as spurious and said the LNP would quickly preselect a replacement who will be treated as the “LNP’s representative” in the electorate.]

    What the flip does Newman mean? Can someone tell him what a Parliamentary Democracy is, Members represent the people who elected them bozo. Not a one party state.

  18. [Mr Newman described Mr Hopper’s reasons for leaving as spurious and said the LNP would quickly preselect a replacement who will be treated as the “LNP’s representative” in the electorate.]

    Wot?!! Newman seems to have lost the plot.

  19. [….the LNP would quickly preselect a replacement who will be treated as the “LNP’s representative” in the electorate.]
    The NSW Nationals did a similar thing in Port Macquarie electorate when Rob Oakeshott turned independent. They had Andrew Stoner from the next door electorate take over as the defacto Nats MP. Every so often there would be an ad in the local paper advising that Stoner would be in town on whatever date and people wanting to talk to him could make an appointment. It was done to imply that the real MP was no longer capable of representing his electorate. All part of the LNP Born To Rule mentality.

  20. After watching Fran Kelly’s final comment on Insiders this morning I’m still not convinced she wasn’t referring to the opposition being in the doldrums in the new year.
    Either way the comment was ridiculous and made no sense at all.

  21. 😆 😆 . Loving a Santos ad for NSW CSG.Some average ocker bloke front man shows how amazing CSG gas is. No matter how many times he puts on his hard hat when he takes it off his gel spiked hair remaind absolutely fabulously perfect. May I add two more 😆 😆

  22. [Every so often there would be an ad in the local paper advising that Stoner would be in town on whatever date and people wanting to talk to him could make an appointment. It was done to imply that the real MP was no longer capable of representing his electorate.]

    The Liberals are doing the same thing in O’Connor. Flying out shadow ministers to present at forums on various issues, letters to the paper, Senators referring to themselves as Senators for the region in an effort to pretend Crook isn’t representing the electorate effectively.

    And then the wheat deregulation bills hit parliament…. 🙂

  23. scarpat

    Just saw the JBishop clip again where she is urging Bruce Wilson to go to the Police.

    JG and Wilson are more likely to ‘urge’ JBishop to find a long broomestick and failing to fly it to sit instead.

    Because all she’s got is ‘squat.

    BBishop will last longer than JBishop.

  24. victoria

    [What the heck in Bishop on about??]

    None of the big construction companies are going to admit that the paid a union to leave them alone.

    Classic ‘wank’ from the Libs.

  25. BK

    [
    Egypt has Morsi = Queensland has Newman.]
    I have more hope for Morsi. The “natives” are far more politicised and willing to march and die. He knows that. He is at the same crossroads that Hosni Mubarak was when he took control. Hosni decided on taking the “western coin” . With the intertubes etc it is not so easy to do so these days.

  26. My prediction is that PM Ms Julia Gillard will emerge from this smear campaign smelling of parsley, rosemary and thyme. And roses. It’s crap.

    +++

    Saw a beautiful sight the other day. A large kangaroo hopping gently down my street. What a wonderful creature!
    I’ve seen plenty of ‘roos and wallabies, but it was odd to
    see one here in an urban area.

    I’ve often wondered what the first settlers, upon first sighting, made of the kangaroo.

    I reckon it be something like:”What the firsk is DAT.”

    Fortunately for the kangaroos, the British didn’t eat them in any number.

    So, our roos survive.

    +++

    Hot as hell down here. Approaching 40c. Dogs flat. Panting.

    Might have to fire up the cooling only air thingo … dinner tonight is two bean sprouts, a slice of tomato, a dill cucumber … followed by fresh strawberries, good cream, mango, a dash of vanilla extract … sound all right?

  27. Bring on the Queensland Katter Opposition!

    Labor will be able to stand back a bit and pick its battles while it rebuilds the party’s support. The Katters of course get some much-needed exposure. The Nats will be reminded who they’re meant to be representing. And Newman gets taken down a peg.

    Win-win-win-win.

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