GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.
UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).
UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.
Leroy – very good 😀 😀
Leroy,
Are you teasing? If not, the link is broken.
ruawake@4981
Don’t know. But I suspect it will be heavy on the disclaimers. Reading the whole story over, it’s full of things people said to each other, and light on the documentation. Given that amazing Thomson credit slip, not to mention the email involving ‘Gordon Grech’, maybe News have mocked something up and are planning on passing it off as evidence.
Great excitement on twitter because Bruce Wilson has apparently spoken out in defence of Gillard – but the link everyone has posted doesn’t seem to work…
Someone has seriously pressed the wrong button at News Ltd, making that available on the web site so early.
[Don’t forget Lindsay Tanner either. I believe he is stirring the pot from afar.]
This stuff goes way back to before Gillard was even in parliament.
You’ve got to wonder at the hatred of some people, that they can hang onto it for so long. Sad.
[Sadly, I cant find out from the internet who the directors of Thiess/Leightons were in the early 1990s…]
Possibly the same ones who gave Sir Joh the earthmoving equipment to build his airstrip a few years before?
I can’t believe this has “gone live” now. Read it!
http://www.news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/story-fndo4bst-1226523368046
Leroy,
I am now getting ‘page not found’
[Yer it is.]
She is not impressed with the state of the journalism on this matter. Particularly, The Australian report that suggested she knew who Julia Gillard actually was, way back then.
Of course, when she was looking at the issues, Gillard was a non entity. And did not figure.
It looks like the article was released prematurely…
frednk
Boerwar
Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
…..
As a businessman I have no interest in the morals or ethics or politics or hand-wringing or any other damn thing. What I want to know is how many you would like. Remember, there is no risk to you because I am personally prepared to underwrite the first 5 million plane passengers for my $50 per person. After they get off the plane, the problem is all yours.
I repeat: how many would you like?
And I repeat Boerwar, instead of running the crap assumptions that got us into this mess again, the smart thing to do would be to work out why the messy solution worked better than the current mess.
Hey pal, no need to get over-excited about false assumptions or anything like that. They don’t put jam on the toast, do they?
I tell you what, I’ll cut you into the deal. I will guarantee a list of five million asylum seekers who are committed to get on one of the Greens free plane rides to Australia. I’ll just take $40 and the other $10 per person goes to you as a bit of an under-the-table backhander. Don’t worry, the taxpayer will pony up so it will be no skin off your nose.
Given recent events, I think I would start my list-building of wannabe asylum seekers, who are prepared to take a free-plane ride to Australia, in Gaza, the Congo and Kenya. No brainer, really. What do you think?
Laocoon you might find out who the directors of Theiss/Leightons were by trawling the ASX website, share registery or delimisted companys.
chris murphy @chrismurphys
I am confident the Pyne texts will emerge into the public arena even though they may be private in nature. Journos chasing. #auspol
Just back in and was looking at Twitter and this popped up
Fortunately, I STILL have the page open 🙂 Here is the whole text.
http://www.news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/story-fndo4bst-1226523368046 (now off line again)
[Julia didn’t know about fraud scandal
EXCLUSIVE by STEVE LEWIS and SAMANTHA MAIDEN
The Sunday Telegraph
November 25, 2012 12:00AM
JULIA Gillard’s ex-lover Bruce Wilson has declared the Prime Minister knew nothing about a 1990s union fraud scandal.
Speaking out for the first time the former Australian Workers Union boss said Ms Gillard “knew absolutely, categorically nothing” about the affair.
Mr Wilson – who now works as a cook on the Central Coast – said: “They can go on a witch-hunt for as long as they like and they will find nothing that will do her (Gillard) any harm.
“It’s just a waste of time, they will find nothing.”
Mr Wilson also rounded on the union bagman Ralph Blewitt, attacking his former mate as a “very risky” person for Ms Gillard’s critics to rely upon.
“Relying on Ralph to be your star witness is a very, very risky strategy,” Mr Wilson told The Sunday Telegraph.
“It’s not one I would be prepared to take.”
Mr Wilson – referring to those who are pursuing the AWU story – said “there is a group of people who are being funded by God knows who – good luck to them”.
“But they are going to come unstuck – big time.”
The Prime Minister has consistently denied any wrongdoing in the establishment of a union slush fund when she worked as a lawyer in the 1990s.
As the Coalition warned the issue would dominate parliament during the final sitting week and accused the Prime Minister of “stonewalling”, the Treasurer also attacked the credibility of Mr Blewitt.
Mr Blewitt, a self confessed patron of Balinese brothels and union bagman has admitted he’s “no angel”.
And Penelope Lennon, Mr Blewitt’s younger sister who said she been estranged from Mr Blewitt for years, said she wouldn’t trust his evidence.
“I haven’t changed my mind. He is a crook,” she told The Sunday Telegraph yesterday.
“They should lock him up and throw away the key.”
Mr Blewitt told The Sunday Telegraph: “I have a sister and others tipping the bucket on me right now. It’s a private family matter, we haven’t seen each other for 35 years.”
Mr Blewitt’s Australian ex-wife, who asked not to be named, also confirmed that she had no idea Mr Blewitt had bought a house in Melbourne in the 1990s with union cash despite the fact they were married at the time.
Previously, Mr Blewitt has conceded he has used the services of prostitutes but rejects suggestions he is a “sex predator” as claimed by the humorous political website Vex News.]
[I didn’t know until yesterday that Cambridge was a mate of McClelland. It’s a murky little cabal.]
I didn’t know that.
Very murky indeed.
Laocoon@4997
I think it’s there, actually. I clicked on it, and it came up as ‘page not found’. But then I was taken to freeze.com (which is where I always end up when my broadband has a hissy fit), and there’s a link on that page too, with the same opening line. Maybe they put it up too soon by accident, and have removed it again.
scrap that, Thiess was delisted 29/02/1980. The directors box is blank
Big story is this!
Paul Murray @PMOnAir
Bruce Wilson has spoken to the Sunday Telegraph. Interesting reading. Link has been killed off till midnight. #AWU #AusPol
Billie
Thanks but sadly, it is yet another example of the difference of information availability pre-internet and post internet; even ASX becomes patchy pre-1999 (which is a disgrace; but add that to the list for that institution)
Leroy
Congratulations. Well done. My heartfelt appreciation. William should give you the Gold Bludger Award, First Class.
Stephanie Philbrick @Steph_Philbrick
But MARK BAKER WANTS BLOOD! MT @GhostWhoVotes: Bruce Wilson says Gillard knew nothing about the AWU fraud scandal http://bit.ly/ThEMs1
Leroy:
Good find!
Wilson is using very similar language to Swan this morning in his presser. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
Leroy
Oh wow! I thought you had just made it up!!
For real??
[the humorous political website Vex News.]
Won’t they love that! Comedy Central Australia: Vexnews
Great work, Leroy.
“Stop writing crap!” seems to have had zero effect. Maybe a repeat dose is what the doctor should call for.
[Previously, Mr Blewitt has conceded he has used the services of prostitutes but rejects suggestions he is a “sex predator” as claimed by the humorous political website Vex News.]
😆 Oh dear. 😆
Leroy,
Hat tip.
It’s for real. I’ll bet someone loaded it on to the site, but instead of timing it to go live later tonight, they stuffed it up and it went up straight away.
You can thank this guy, must have been googling for new articles and came across it. He’s also grabbed an image.
https://twitter.com/Schtang
Leroy, you are the best!
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
frednk
What we had demonstrably did not work.
You might be able to accept asylum seekers risking drowning – how nice for you – but it’s obvious that the majority of Australians found it totally unacceptable.
Like it or not, we live in a democracy. What people want matters.
It’s a messy business, I grant you. And it always will be. And I’m sure there’ll be a lot of chopping and changing along the way, because the situation will always be fluid.]
As the flow has increased I find it difficult to see how the reduced risk of drowning argument has any legs.
If you want to keep up the current charade, we have to happily accept the full detention centres, the flow of refugees, refugees being refused the right to work for 5 years. Happily accept the costs associated with all that.
If our policy was really about the risk of drowning then the Greens solution of flying them here has legs, and then Boerwar has a point.
But it was never about that was it!
A little honesty would probable get us closer to a real solution.
At the moment we have the Liberals and Labor talking shit and that leads to billions wasted.
[ruawake
Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
frednk
So no answer just a rant?]
True, but it is a step up from a national lie.
The MSM will declare that Bruce Wilson is not a credible witness whereas Ralph Blewitt must be as he returned to Australia to set the story straight…
Wow! That’s Green-voting compassion for you:
frednk@4985,
If they want to take the risk of drowning (which is quite high), good on them.
How big a risk are you willing to take is a pretty good selection criteria in my view. And no I do not think Australia should take responsibility for the life of every refugee that takes to a boat.
At least frednk was honest enough to junk the compassion angle, which never quite sat smoothly with the drownings at sea of asylum seekers from The Greens and their supporters.
frednk
My offer to you of five million times ten dollars is still on the table.
All you have to do is say yes. Don’t forget, the Greens Government will pay all airfares, accommodation, and oncosts so there is NO FINANCIAL RISK to you at all.
It is like free magic pudding money.
All we have to do is go to refugee camps and get lists of names of asylum seekers. I am prepared to do the hard yards and actually get the lists together. You can be a silent partner. $10 per person. Easy peasey.
You know it makes sense.
Stand by for the phalanx of News ltd hacks to declare wtte Julia has to get her old boyfriend to defend her.
Laocoon@4992,
Sadly, I cant find out from the internet who the directors of Thiess/Leightons were in the early 1990s…
Would the Stock Exchange, ACCI or BCA have the info you require? Or maybe the government entity in charge of regulating companies.
The Schtang link takes you here http://twitter.com/Schtang/status/272253247748702209/photo/1
At least frednk was honest enough to junk the compassion angle, which never quite sat smoothly with the drownings at sea of asylum seekers from The Greens and their supporters.
Indeed as Christine Milne voted for the status quo after the death of the 137 asylum seekers, the Greens compassion must start at any total greater than this.
Well done Leroy
This is the moment everything goes “pear shaped” for the Libs regarding the AWU.
The yellow press have changed sides.
Scarpat@5029
Possibly, but why would they run it – and promote it via Lewis as a big, big story – in the first place? Something odd about this.
[True, but it is a step up from a national lie]
The use of bridging visas is identical to onshore processing in the community, which the Greens support, except when they don’t.
C@tmomma
I could I guess call ASIC and spend some money but I am not that interested
Though as rua as alluded above, Thiess/Leighton have some, ahem, “interesting” history
Stand by for the phalanx of News ltd hacks to declare wtte Julia has to get her old boyfriend to defend her.
She must hide behind a man’s trousers…
Fredn
My business proposition is secular when it comes to drowing at sea.
The business plan is based on Greens policies in their policy document. The plan is this: the Greens have no upper limit on the number of asylum seekers they are prepared to pay to get on planes to Australia. The relevant word in their policy document is all asylum seekers. No probs. We take them at their word. (As an added bonus they want to increase the number of all asylum seekers by including environmental refugees and there are scads of people who have trashed their environments so badly that they are turning into deserts.
Money for jam.
I’ve got the page open as well. Pretty much exactly what Leroy has posted above, just a few extra bits to convey:
1. a nice photo of Bruce Wilson in blue singlet and jeans holding a baby. This might work?
the caption below the photo has obviously not gone through the sub-editting yet, as it says:
” Ex boyfriend of Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former AWU official Bruce Wilson at his Nelson Bay home refusing to comment on the slush fund scandal. Picture: Liam Driver Source: The Sunday Telegraph
2. A photo of JG looking grim,
“
with the caption:
” Julia Gillard has refused to answer allegations she resigned from a law firm after a union scandal involving her then boyfriend. Source: Supplied
As this caption is wrong, and defamatory, I wonder if it will appear in the final version? Wouldn’t pass legals IMHO.
And just in case you miss the the full text Leroy has posted, the version I have open says:
[JULIA Gillard’s ex-lover Bruce Wilson has declared the Prime Minister knew nothing about a 1990s union fraud scandal.
Speaking out for the first time the former Australian Workers Union boss said Ms Gillard “knew absolutely, categorically nothing” about the affair.
Mr Wilson – who now works as a cook on the Central Coast – said: “They can go on a witch-hunt for as long as they like and they will find nothing that will do her (Gillard) any harm.
“It’s just a waste of time, they will find nothing.”
Mr Wilson also rounded on the union bagman Ralph Blewitt, attacking his former mate as a “very risky” person for Ms Gillard’s critics to rely upon.
“Relying on Ralph to be your star witness is a very, very risky strategy,” Mr Wilson told The Sunday Telegraph.
“It’s not one I would be prepared to take.”
Mr Wilson – referring to those who are pursuing the AWU story – said “there is a group of people who are being funded by God knows who – good luck to them”.
“But they are going to come unstuck – big time.”
The Prime Minister has consistently denied any wrongdoing in the establishment of a union slush fund when she worked as a lawyer in the 1990s.
As the Coalition warned the issue would dominate parliament during the final sitting week and accused the Prime Minister of “stonewalling”, the Treasurer also attacked the credibility of Mr Blewitt.
Mr Blewitt, a self confessed patron of Balinese brothels and union bagman has admitted he’s “no angel”.
And Penelope Lennon, Mr Blewitt’s younger sister who said she been estranged from Mr Blewitt for years, said she wouldn’t trust his evidence.
“I haven’t changed my mind. He is a crook,” she told The Sunday Telegraph yesterday.
“They should lock him up and throw away the key.”
Mr Blewitt told The Sunday Telegraph: “I have a sister and others tipping the bucket on me right now. It’s a private family matter, we haven’t seen each other for 35 years.”
Mr Blewitt’s Australian ex-wife, who asked not to be named, also confirmed that she had no idea Mr Blewitt had bought a house in Melbourne in the 1990s with union cash despite the fact they were married at the time.
Previously, Mr Blewitt has conceded he has used the services of prostitutes but rejects suggestions he is a “sex predator” as claimed by the humorous political website Vex News.]
[They’ve completely abandoned any attempt to explain what the story might be about, referring to it simply as the “AWU scandal”. As far as I could gather, it’s just the natural result of pink batts and cost of living pressure. They’ve freed themselves of the ‘questions that need to be answered’ millstone, and are now free to jump up and down and point fingers. Gillard is now in the “when did you stop fleecing Australians” zone.]
Free-floating ‘scandals’ like that are perfect for the LNP and/or press. They take it to the point where there isn’t even a referent. So its not necessarily about *what* questions are to be answered, but just the allegation that there are questions to be answered. And then when the questions themselves drift away, you have the pure idea of shadiness, without even needing to prove it in any way.
There have been many cracking comments here today (youse know who youse are), and a couple of cracking poems
&w=487&h=491&ei=kYOwULHcDYe4iAfqnoGgAw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=298&vpy=289&dur=1593&hovh=225&hovw=224&tx=75&ty=68&sig=110011448017414990233&page=1&tbnh=144&tbnw=149&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:7,s:0,i:109″ rel=”nofollow”>(Gold Echidna Stamp to our very own Pote Laureate, Patricia of WA), but Leroy’s find this evening is stellar beyond compare
The story so far as articulated by George:
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger
@Thefinnigans the story is: we have no questions, we have no answers, we have no witnesses, we have no evidence… we have fck all. Brilliant