Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,192 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Its the stabilising? I’d like to see more details, especially on Abbott. He hasn’t had a great month, unless I’ve missed something?

  2. Well, that was worth waiting up for. At least I got the dishes done while waiting for it.

    LNP up a bit and Tone down a bit. Steady as she goes.

  7. Looks like things have leveled out at a point where no one can feel comfortable. The L-NP need a Turnbull LOTO as Abbott is dragging the Libs.

    So we wait patiently for the next breakout

  8. Just the AAP report, main articles to come

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coalition-would-win-federal-election-poll-20121118-29kq2.html

    [Coalition would win federal election: poll
    November 18, 2012 – 11:25PM
    AAP

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s approval rating may be on the wane but the coalition would win an election on a two-party basis, the latest Fairfax/Nielsen poll says.

    According to the poll, the opposition would win 53 per cent of the vote (up one point since last month) and Labor would receive 47 per cent (down one point).

    The poll, in Monday’s Fairfax newspapers, shows Labor’s national primary vote is steady on 34 per cent, while the coalition’s vote has risen by two points to 45 per cent, with the Greens up one point on 12 per cent.

    Mr Abbott’s approval eased one point to 36 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 60 per cent.

    His net approval is down a point to minus 24, a new personal low.

    Voter approval for Prime Minister Julia Gillard remains steady on 47 per cent and, with her disapproval steady on 48 per cent, she has an unchanged net approval of minus one.

    Ms Gillard maintains a nine-point lead over Mr Abbott in the preferred prime minister stakes at 51 per cent (up a point) to Mr Abbott’s 42 per cent (up two points) in the national poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday.]

  9. So all stable – the ALP increment following The Speech has consolidated. Abbott remains on 60% disapproval.
    It is rare for PMs to lose ppm and it appears JG’s long period in a losing position is over. Not a bad place for a government 10-11 months out.

  10. crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 11:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Scorpio

    If you are about.

    Went today to the 80th Anniversary of the Dover Square Tennis Club.

    Much fun was had. Fantastically the club now has a membership of 180 and enough junior members to make 22 teams.

  11. Its going to take another month to know whether the trend will continue positive or flatten out…

    Steady on the popcorn folks..

  12. Henry

    Abbott will be the most unpopular opposition leader of all time to face an election if he still leads the Liberals.

    He’s gone. And if his party is smart, they will move NOW!

    *night*

  14. [Mr Abbott’s approval eased one point to 36 per cent.]
    Now, if JG had gone down one point, … forget about “eased.”

  15. Like I said Centre, Gillard is a drag on the ALP vote.

    I really wouldn’t assume at this stage Julia Gillard is safe.
    From Kevin or electoral defeat.

    Just satin’

  20. I just turned the tv on…ABC2…..Wallender…first shot is of dismembered/butchered female body parts washed up on a beach. How can such dreadful images be considered to be entertainment? I am completely disgusted…unable to watch…don’t whether to gag or scream with revulsion.

  21. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/voters-united-on-abuse-inquiry-20121118-29kd0.html
    [Voters united on abuse inquiry
    November 19, 2012
    Michelle Grattan
    Political editor of The Age

    ALMOST every Australian voter backs the royal commission on child sex abuse in an Age-Nielsen poll that shows little change in support for the parties or leaders.

    An extraordinary 95 per cent support the inquiry, which has bipartisan backing although it does not as yet have terms of reference. It is highly unusual for a political decision to have such a level of support.]

  23. Centre@12


    Henry

    Abbott will be the most unpopular opposition leader of all time to face an election if he still leads the Liberals.

    Not necessarily. Peacock was -33 Newspoll in 1990 and if this is somewhere near Abbott’s low now he may bounce back.

    Although this is Abbott’s worst Nielsen netsat by a point, following worsts in Essential and Newspoll, their might be relief that it is not his worst by more.

    I don’t take that much notice of Nielsen approval ratings though. They’re just too hippy for my tastes.

  24. david @ 7

    [Looks like things have leveled out at a point where no one can feel comfortable. The L-NP need a Turnbull LOTO as Abbott is dragging the Libs.]

    Surely while Turnbull will undoubtedly be more acceptable than the absurd Abbott, what is he going to do about the LNP extremist pixie policies? Are they going to magically disappear?

  25. ‘He’s gone. And if his party is smart, they will move NOW!’

    Give it rest Centre. It’ll fall off if you’re not careful.

    They’re not going to dump Monkey. Why would they. They’re ahead comfortably in the polls. Monkey would become PM by proxy.
    People don’t really give a shit. They just know Joolya lied to them. So they say…….

  28. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Carbon Price: Support 39 (+2) Oppose 56 (-3) #auspol
    Expand
    2m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Offshore processing in PNG & Nauru: Support 67 Oppose 27 #auspol
    Expand
    3m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Child abuse #RoyalCommission: Support 95 Oppose 3 #auspol

    Interesting….

  30. I am just completely sick of violence being presented for amusement. I am aghast, really….this is too much and has been going on for too long. This is unfit for public consumption. If anything was ever obscene, it is using murder and butchery to entertain.

  34. Briefly, I totally agree. I gave up watching many TV shows because the focus seemed to be on showing flayed open bodies and ever more gory scenes.

  35. so a 95% approval for decisive action to call a RC does not translate into any poll improvement. What would have been the result if the punters disagreed!!!!!!!

  37. Swamprat in all important qualities that make a good leader Turnbull is a long way ahead of Abbott. I’m not sure how he controls the far right of the party but he would do a much better job than Abbott.

  40. @Paddy O/35

    And then it shouldn’t. RC isn’t something to get too political – needs bipartisan support for it to be effective.

    Anyway – it is also too early to tell.

  43. I’ve been comparing Senate voting figures over time to calculate long-term trends for and against Labor. The most favourable to Labor (going back to the early 1990s here and excluding seats which have been created since then) are Rankin, Macquarie, Bruce, Canberra, Richmond, Bradfield, Kooyong, North Sydney, Chisholm and Corangamite. The ten least favourable are Greenway, Maranoa, Hinkler, Kennedy, Forde, Macarthur, Fowler, Parkes, Throsby and Chifley.

  45. Carbon Tax Repeal (this is now the big question in regards to Abbott)

    Support 56, Oppose 39

    Labor voters: Support 37 Oppose 59

    Coalition voters: Support 77, Oppose 19

  46. fiona, sometimes I can’t help myself. I just find the dramatisation of violence – particularly violence directed against children and women – deeply troubling. Some things are not fit subjects for public amusement. It is all profoundly distressing. What does it say to those people who have actually been harmed by violence: to those who have been tortured, beaten, raped, bashed or murdered – that in some ghoulish way they are amusements too? I only know I cannot watch this stuff any more.

  48. I supposed not many people would be inclined to say no to a RC on child abuse. maybe a few follow up questions might have been useful

  49. The 95% number is an eye-opener. This subject has been discussed informally for years and years. It is obviously high time for such a decision…. hat’s off to JG.

  50. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Returning federal budget to surplus (by party): ALP 49/45 L/NP 61/36 GRN 39/52 #auspol

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