Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,192 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. As I said from the beginning Gillard’s huge jump to the right would bring the far right closer to the Center. And that is exactly what is happenning . Gillard has become Howard on steroids ..now Abbott and co can present nazi policy as reasonable policy…well done Gillard…the new queen of the lowest common denominator..cheered on here. though if it wereJ Howard all here would be screaming like stuck pigs.

    So evil and disgusting policy is only so if it isn’t Gillard putting it up. You people have become the Very thing you hated.

  2. As I said from the beginning Gillard’s huge jump to the right would bring the far right closer to the Center. And that is exactly what is happenning . Gillard has become Howard on steroids ..now Abbott and co can present nazi policy as reasonable policy…well done Gillard…the new queen of the lowest common denominator..cheered on here. though if it wereJ Howard all here would be screaming like stuck pigs.

    So evil and disgusting policy is only so if it isn’t Gillard putting it up. You people have become the Very thing you hated.

  3. [You’ve got to listen to 2GB to know how much store the rabids are putting in this week. They sincerely believe this is the end of Labor. Some of the more idiotic believe Abbott will be in the Lodge this Christmas.]

    A 3rd year of missing Christmas drinkies at the Lodge will probably push them further over the edge. The pain will be unbearable for 2GB, the LNP, Murdoch hacks and Hartcher – not forgetting Robert McClelland either.

  5. The only thing that would spell huge trouble for Gillard is if a document turns up that demonstrates she knew funds being used were stolen/ appropriated from the ‘slush’ fund.

    other than that it will only just look bad for her but not spell terminal trouble for her.

  8. Gillard will make great play out of Bishop not being able to come up with a single allegation. There’s no way she’ll let that one slip by. I expect her to put steady pressure on the Coalition over running a campaign of innuendo with no substance.

    She’ll get a lot of DDs from her own side on policy issues, just to prevent there being any suggestion of her being absorbed by the smears.

  9. not forgetting Robert McClelland either
    Don’t forget Lindsay Tanner either. I believe he is stirring the pot from afar. He was the instigator of the original ‘Get Gillard’ offensive, with, you know, the emphasis on offensive.

    Also this Ian Cambridge fellow, that Abbott is putting his faith in, that was appointed by who? to the bench of Fair Work Australia.

  11. Steve KLewis is very good with innuendo, lacing his latest article with terms like “scandal”, “haunted”, “allegedly … fraudulently” and ” ‘slush’ fund”.

  13. [It’s all about tarring everyone in the ALP, from the leader down, with the “corrupt unions defrauding members feeding into corrupt fraudulent faceless men controlling the ALP”. That’s why the secondary attacks on Bob Carr are going on at the same time.]
    Wasn’t it Theiss that paid the money??

  15. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    I wonder how the PBO is going to ‘cost’ the Greens’ policies on asylum seekers?

    Infinity minus one?]

    I was pretty happy with how things were until the last round of nasty behaviour, a messy but workable solution.

    Since then arrivals have risen and we are once again spending a fortune on being nasty. Counter intuitive I know, but they are the facts.

    You know; when the facts don’t fit; sane people change policy.

    What have we got now, a lot of arrivals and an increasing number living of the budget because some drip thought that would be smarter than letting them work, letting them support the economy.

    What we have now is brain dead stupidity, and you think that carrying on with this sort of nonsense is going to fix it?

  16. [poor rua, how many times can a man prostitute his principles I wonder. The PB crowd would seem to infer it is infinite]

    Paine grow some principles and you can answer your own question.

  17. frednk

    No worries.

    Give me a target number and, for a consideration of, say, fifty dollars per person, I will guarantee you a list of asylum seekers from all around the world who are prepared to fly to Australia, for free, to be assessed as refugees. To give you an idea of the scale, I am prepared to underwrite an initial number of 5 million names along with their refugee camp addresses.

    My simple business question is this: how many do you want?

  18. Not one new document has been produced by anyone.

    Everything that is being produced as ” new evidence ” is nothing more than documentation that has been available for 20 years and examined by police, lawyers and accountants over and over again.

    Smith and the other ratbags produce a document and present it in isolation as ‘proof”. No mention of documents either side of the “smoking gun ” or documents or file notes that reveal the real train of events.

    It is easy to infer anything based on one piece of paper or one file note in isolation. That is all that is happening.

    Blewett can go on all je likes but unless he has supplied hard evidence then there is nothing and after 20 years what could there be. ?

    Work done on the house of JG paid for out of the “slush fund ” ? Unless you have a direct record of payment showing some payment directly going to this purpose then nothing. THe journo from the Age 17 years ago could find no connection, police could find no evidence and factional enemies of JG could find no evidence over the last 20 years.

    If Blewitt had the foresight to issue invoices or records of payments for such purpose then I have totally underestimated him. He spent his corrupt life in Perth not in Melbourne.

    If there was anything it would be common knowledge.

    Positive vibes all.

  19. [Scarpat
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Wasn’t it Theiss that paid the money??

    Laocoon,

    that is not the point…]

    I’d be pretty impressed if anyone could articulate “the point”.

  21. [What we have now is brain dead stupidity, and you think that carrying on with this sort of nonsense is going to fix it?]

    Bridging Visas are not new, Bowen announced he would use them months ago. What is new is that arrivals post Nauru and now eligible to use them.

    What would you rather?

    Detention on CI
    Detention on Nauru or Manus
    Or Detention in the community with financial support?

    I would chose a bridging visa any day of the week.

    I wish people would look beyond the headline. 🙁

  24. c@tmomma – poor Lindsay never came to terms with JG rising in the Party.
    He could have made a greater contribution if he’d put that aside.

    I didn’t know until yesterday that Cambridge was a mate of McClelland. It’s a murky little cabal.

  26. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    No worries.

    Give me a target number and, for a consideration of, say, fifty dollars per person, I will guarantee you a list of asylum seekers from all around the world who are prepared to fly to Australia, for free, to be assessed as refugees. To give you an idea of the scale, I am prepared to underwrite an initial number of 5 million names along with their refugee camp addresses.

    My simple business question is this: how many do you want?]

    Boerwar we had a policy that was messy, was humane, worked better and was cheaper than the current mess created in the last few months.

    Even though the policy just happened as a result of responding to events, the smart thing to do would be to work out why, instead of repeating the assumptions that got us into this mess.

  28. I have to get dinner but just saw this as I was closing down. All saved up for last Parly week, no doubt.

    [ Steve Lewis ‏@lewiss50

    Big big AWU scandal story in News Ltd papers tomorrow]

  31. Well, I can tell you Channel 9 threw everything at the ALP. Starting with a list of everything they’ve thrown at them up until now, culminating in the “intense pressure” (I think that’s how they worded it, might have been “intolerable”) now on Gillard. You’ll be pleased to know Wayne Swan “attempted to” discredit Blewitt, now elevated to the position of Whistleblower.

    They’ve completely abandoned any attempt to explain what the story might be about, referring to it simply as the “AWU scandal”. As far as I could gather, it’s just the natural result of pink batts and cost of living pressure. They’ve freed themselves of the ‘questions that need to be answered’ millstone, and are now free to jump up and down and point fingers. Gillard is now in the “when did you stop fleecing Australians” zone.

    Disturbing that they now have their three word slogan, misleading as it is. ‘Gillard AWU Scandal’ it is.

  33. I do wonder about the asylum seeker surge since August.

    The 7000 arrivals in 4 months is quite exceptional.

    It doesn’t, as far as I’m aware, correspond with any upswing in global conditions – the push factors aren’t there unless there are suddenly a large number of Syrians or Libyans showing up on our doorstep, which I suspect is not the case.

    So why the massive surge now? My tinfoil hat suggests that the people smugglers are deliberately trying to break the will of the Australian government. I’d assume there should be some evidence out there if that was the case (asylum seekers encouraged to take a boat now, discounts, other incentives or threats) – the press don’t seem to be reporting any such, so perhaps it is just the tinfoil hat.

    Still, if such evidence did come to light, that would be a very serious issue – basically organized crime deliberately trying to crash through our government’s policy.

  36. Jackol @ 4943. There’s an interesting link immediately above you from BH, very relevant to Julie Bishop, but even more so, I think to your comment here about Abbott and Gillard. Jason Koutsoukis was almost clairvoyant in his comments about these two when, back in late 2007, they were only potential lead actors in our political drama.

    Fending off an attack based on this old tale shouldn’t present too many problems for her…..What Gillard also doesn’t lack is conviction, or the ability to articulate what she believes in in a way that engages voters…….Compare Gillard to her Thursday morning sparring partner on Channel Nine’s Today show, Tony Abbott. The man can’t open his mouth without offending people.

    Koutsoukis thought the Liberals already ‘harbored a deep resentment’ of Julia Gillard’s success because she was potentially Australia’s first female Deputy PM if Rudd won the upcoming election. So even then they were working hard to bring her down. How come they still seem not to understand…..

    that Gillard does have a public appeal…..and the fact that attempts to denigrate her might be doing the Coalition more harm than good?

  37. I hereby declare this will a “GET GILLARD” S.M.E.A.R. week starting #Newspoll Sunday

    am i smelling the painful pavlovian doggy?

  38. frednk

    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    No worries.

    Give me a target number and, for a consideration of, say, fifty dollars per person, I will guarantee you a list of asylum seekers from all around the world who are prepared to fly to Australia, for free, to be assessed as refugees. To give you an idea of the scale, I am prepared to underwrite an initial number of 5 million names along with their refugee camp addresses.

    My simple business question is this: how many do you want?

    Boerwar we had a policy that was messy, was humane, worked better and was cheaper than the current mess created in the last few months.

    Even though the policy just happened as a result of responding to events, the smart thing to do would be to work out why, instead of repeating the assumptions that got us into this mess.

    As a businessman I have no interest in the morals or ethics or politics or hand-wringing or any other damn thing. What I want to know is how many you would like. Remember, there is no risk to you because I am personally prepared to underwrite the first 5 million plane passengers for my $50 per person. After they get off the plane, the problem is all yours.

    I repeat: how many would you like?

  39. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
    …

    What would you rather?
    ]

    Australia to stop spending billions of dollars on this nonsense.

    Australia is only responsible once they reach our shores, and our responsibility is greater than splitting hairs over definitions. If they want to take the risk of drowning (which is quite high), good on them.

    How big a risk are you willing to take is a pretty good selection criteria in my view. And no I do not think Australia should take responsibility for the life of every refugee that takes to a boat.

    The crazy thing about all this, some brain dead thought the risk of 5 years on an island would trump the risk of death.

    But that is not the last play, a risk of being sent back to GO (which is far from absolute as there is no regional processing station) is supposed to be the magic bullet.

    So we have had months of “we have to make their life a greater hell so they won’t drown” for what, to fill up a couple of detention centers in god forsaken locations, detention centers that cost a fortune to keep open.

  41. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    …..

    As a businessman I have no interest in the morals or ethics or politics or hand-wringing or any other damn thing. What I want to know is how many you would like. Remember, there is no risk to you because I am personally prepared to underwrite the first 5 million plane passengers for my $50 per person. After they get off the plane, the problem is all yours.

    I repeat: how many would you like?]

    And I repeat Boerwar, instead of running the crap assumptions that got us into this mess again, the smart thing to do would be to work out why the messy solution worked better than the current mess.

  42. “THe journo from the Age 17 years ago could find no connection, police could find no evidence and factional enemies of JG could find no evidence over the last 20 years.”

    Is this Joanne Painter, you talk of here, Doyley?

  45. At a pure guess, I would say the Steve Lewis (or whoever wrote it) story will be based on Blewitt’s statements given to police. He hasn’t come here for nothing.

  47. frednk

    What we had demonstrably did not work.

    You might be able to accept asylum seekers risking drowning – how nice for you – but it’s obvious that the majority of Australians found it totally unacceptable.

    Like it or not, we live in a democracy. What people want matters.

    It’s a messy business, I grant you. And it always will be. And I’m sure there’ll be a lot of chopping and changing along the way, because the situation will always be fluid.

  48. I can’t believe this has “gone live” now. Read it!

    http://www.news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/story-fndo4bst-1226523368046
    [Julia didn’t know about fraud scandal
    EXCLUSIVE by STEVE LEWIS and SAMANTHA MAIDEN
    The Sunday Telegraph
    November 25, 2012 12:00AM

    JULIA Gillard’s ex-lover Bruce Wilson has declared the Prime Minister knew nothing about a 1990s union fraud scandal.

    Speaking out for the first time the former Australian Workers Union boss said Ms Gillard “knew absolutely, categorically nothing” about the affair.]

  49. Oh I wonder what this story might be?

    [The Embattled Julia Gillard’s claims of wrongdoing have been overturned by the discovery of a paperclip attaching documents of the AWU slush fund scandal to a letter sent to her. This paperclip has signs of her DNA upon it]

    Going by News Ltd’s fanatical campaign so far, it’ll probably be more pathetic than that.

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