Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,192 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. The story is Sam Maiden’s she is the Sunday News Ltd gal. Lewis got a by-line for who knows what reason.

    The worm has turned. Imagine if the rabble thought boats was a better angle and to forget slime? Where is Hartcher and his fellow scribblers?

  2. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    True, but it is a step up from a national lie

    The use of bridging visas is identical to onshore processing in the community, which the Greens support, except when they don’t.]

    The bridging visas are a step in the right direction, the only thing wrong with them is the poor sods can’t start getting their act together.

    As I understand it, labor wants to keep them on welfare and the Liberals want them to work for the dole. All dressed up in double speak of cause..

    Why not put them on a bridging visa and let them work, you will find out who can make it and who can’t, who will commit crimes and who won’t, who you want to get rid of and who you want to keep. Five years is a good probation period. Australia should make use of it instead of wasting 5 years of a future possible citizens life.

  3. Laocoon @5040,

    Spot on.

    I would think Theiss and a few other very big construction would, for a number of reasons, have no interest in seeing this story go anyway.

  4. Radical Comedian ‏@RadicalComedian
    Why did the conservative leader cross the road? “Because there was an audience willing to listen to his hate-speech!”

  5. And the other thing that needs to happen; and I am sure it will; is to close down the pacific detention centres. They cost money and they don’t work.

    Howard has provided a clear working blueprint on how to go about it.

  6. victoria:

    I watched the Swan presser on a replay loop on Apac. The words attributed to Wilson in the article are very similar to the words Swan used this morning.

  7. Here is part of a melange of nonsense my Angela Shanahan in the OO today in which she seems to be arguing against the RC. The following is the bit where she seemed, to me, to stray furthest from the planet…

    The evil of the crime is two fold. First, there are the consequences of sexual molestation for individual victims, which are spiritually and psychologically disastrous. Anyone can see that. Second, an even more serious thing, is the spiritual consequences for the church itself. This is a sin of scandal against the whole body of the church, the laity as well as the clergy. This is worse than a crime. it is a mortal sin against the church itself.

    How anyone can think that the spiritual consequences for the church are more serious than the consequences for individual victims is completely beyond me.

  8. fred

    that the (incompletely rolled out) Houston recommendations haven’t prevented drownings doesn’t mean that that wasn’t their intention.

    I think it’s a pretty big slur on the Houston panel to suggest that they were insincere in their suggestions, particularly given that a refugee advocate was one of its members.

  9. Rupert’s decided Tone and Mesma aren’t going to cut it – he’s led them along and now dumped them in the shit over the AWU “scandal”. Obviously the plan is to get a leadership change happening this coming week to give the new leader time to establish before the election.

    You know it makes sense. Popcorn!

  10. Zoomster

    For the umpteenth time, the question of ‘drownings’ is simply misdirection. The people who are bothered about drowinings at sea are not voting for the coalition because while everyone who cares about refugees wants drownings to be fewer, support for the coalition reflects animus towards refugees “cashed up asylum shoppers who are part of a peaceful invasion” and at best indifference towards drownings and angst at the possibility that in some way the nature of the country as a British/European/Western outpost will be subverted.

    The ALP cites drownings because it sounds better than expressly appealing to those on the Liberal side of policy angst. “Border Security” is the corssover term.

  11. Boerwar@5016


    Leroy
    Congratulations. Well done. My heartfelt appreciation. William should give you the Gold Bludger Award, First Class.

    Agree completely Leroy always posts really good stuff.

    Please keep up the great work Leroy..

  12. Jolyon,,

    I don’t think Shanahan was trying to belittle the victims.

    Her point is the scandal for the Church is bigger than the individual cases of abuse. Crimes happen. But the institutionalised cover up is the real problem that must be addressed.

  13. zoomster
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    [fred

    that the (incompletely rolled out) Houston recommendations haven’t prevented drownings doesn’t mean that that wasn’t their intention.

    I think it’s a pretty big slur on the Houston panel to suggest that they were insincere in their suggestions, particularly given that a refugee advocate was one of its members.]

    Sending 800 to Malaysian might be the magic bullet, however I think I am pretty safe to in saying; considering the outcome; you have to take you pick from misrepresentation or incompetence.

  14. Laocoon@5015


    Billie

    Thanks but sadly, it is yet another example of the difference of information availability pre-internet and post internet; even ASX becomes patchy pre-1999 (which is a disgrace; but add that to the list for that institution)

    Lao – I doubt if this will answer you’re current questions, but the following site is useful to me on occasion.

    http://www.delisted.com.au/

  15. zoomster

    I am having difficulties persuading individual Greens that there is a nice little private sector earner in their policy of paying airfares for all asylum seekers. They sort of pretend that numbers don’t really matter, because the principle is the thing. And, in a way, they are right.

    After all it was Comrade Stalin who said that quantity has a quality all of its own.

    Anyway, just think of this: there are tens of millions of people who would happily put their names down for a free flight to Australia if all it takes is that they have to say that they are seeking asylum.

    I am prepared to bodgy up a list of flight wannabes for the Greens but they are not interested. They don’t want to talk numbers. In fact, mention the word ‘numbers’ and your average Greens gets a panic attack.

  16. GG,

    I think that is a pretty generous interpretation of what she actually wrote. If that is what she meant it is a shame that she didn’t express it with the clarity that you just have.

  17. [Its live again. Also see Daily Telegraph front page.]

    They took it down to pixelate Wilson’s child’s face. Pagemasters have no shame.

  18. GG @ 5045

    Radical Comedian ‏@RadicalComedian
    Why did the conservative leader cross the road? “Because there was an audience willing to listen to his hate-speech!”

    —————————————-

    Why did Tony Abbott cross the road?

    He didn’t have to because he has walked both sides of it for three years.

  19. Sorry to inject some cricket comment into this thread, but the policy to select Victorians over NSWelshmen is ridiculous. Selectors must immediately:

    drop Quiney for Khawaja
    drop Wade for Haddin
    drop Ponting for Watson
    drop Siddle for Starc

  20. [I am having difficulties persuading individual Greens that there is a nice little private sector earner in their policy of paying airfares for all asylum seekers. ]

    SHY has previously declared the Greens would use the Navy and the Air Force to transport AS from Indonesia to Australia.

  21. BW

    [I am prepared to bodgy up a list of flight wannabes for the Greens but they are not interested. They don’t want to talk numbers. In fact, mention the word ‘numbers’ and your average Greens gets a panic attack.]

    No … just a pertinence attack. The numbers are not yet pertinent. We can talk models for determining resettlement, which is a far better thing.

    The Refugee COnvention only requires us to protect those who seek it from us, have a bona fide claim and present within our jurisdiction. That’s not tens of millions, or even millions.

  22. s
    Khawaja has been tried an failed, I believe.
    Haddin, ditto.
    Ponting is past his use-by date. Watson appears to me to be the sort of individual who plays well individually but who is not really a team player.
    Pattinson is likely to be out for oodles, so Starc will get a guernsey anyway.
    But what would I know. I was confident that the South Africans would absolutely trash Oz in this series. FAIL.

  23. This is the equivalent of Evatt’s letter from Molotov. The fact that the denial is from someone who the OM has labelled a crook just goes to show that she is guilty

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