If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:
I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.
In a spirit of bipartisanship, allow me to reach out and say how gratifying its going to be to REVEL in the post-election Republican meltdown, with Obama re-elected, same sex marriage in three states, marijauna legalised in another, and those two odious teabag senators defeated.
Please feel free to post any must read ‘losing it’ brainsnaps from tea-party nutjobs and assorted reality-deniers. I’ll read em all!
Mod Lib@1250
Your political *soul mates* and those of the Australian tories.
Nate Silver Takes A Victory Lap After Obama Re-election
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-obama-reelection_n_2086556.html
Nate Silver nails it
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/nate_silver_nails_it/
One unfortunate result in California.
The proposition to end the death penalty seems doomed to defeat.
Repugs appear to have not won any of the “marginal” states.
I would not normally wish to draw too many parallels, but given the “Tea-Partying” of the Liberal Party, I wonder if a few shivers have not gone up their collective spines with this result
[from twitter: KristenNeel_: I’m moving to Australia, because their president is a Christian and actually supports what he says]
HAHAHAAA! Our male Christian president welcomes you and all others seeking asylum from reality, Kirsten.
I wonder why nobody’s called Florida yet? Obama’s been leading by about 50,000 votes for a while now.
Do they expect that result to be challenged with a recount?
Von Kirsdarke@1257
I hope the votes are under guard over night.
VK,
According to someone upthread, counting in Florida has ceased for the night. Let’s hope for more and even better tomorrow.
[Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2012 02:23:56 +1000
Dear all,
Some have asked me to put my predictions down in writing so I cant be accused of retrospective predictions and so mocking can be instituted with great ease if I am wrong.
So here goes:
Obama will win every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina
Obama will win 332 Electoral college votes (out of 538).
Read it and weap Republicans.]
Not that I like to boast, but this was an email I sent to some friends back in August.
I promise to turn off the gloat button after this post!!!!
One of the recipients is a poster here who can verify for those who doubt me!
🙂
With the notable exception of Virginia (and probably Florida), all of the Confederate states voted Repug…
Bemused,
[I hope the votes are under guard over night.]
With a whole host of incorruptibles keeping watch over the watchers…
[Von Kirsdarke
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:14 pm | PERMALINK
I wonder why nobody’s called Florida yet?]
Fear after 2000?
They have stopped counting but you can rest assured it is Obama’s.
Most of the missing votes are from Democrat areas, and there are simply not enough left for Romney to get back 1%
Mod Lib@1217,
I have itemised the Gillard hypocrisy and backflips so many times that I see no particular reason to go over it again and again.
Sounds sexist to me, considering all the ‘hypocrisy and backflips’ that come out of the mouths of male Liberal politicians on a daily basis. Especially, Mod Lib’s favourite Lib, Malcolm Turnbull, wrt the NBN. And that’s only recently. But he’s a male, and a Liberal, so you can give that the flick pass, if you go by the standards ML sets. Save the outrage for that backflippin’ hypocrite of a female PM, Julia Gillard,huh?
You could probably add that such things emanate from the mouths of male Labor politicians too. But then, they’re men, so no need to mention them in the same breath as the backflipping hypocrite of a female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard. Heh, Mod Lib?
Anyway, I’ll be waiting to see your ‘updated list of further failings’. I guess it won’t include the over 400 pieces of legislation she has led through the House of Representatives.
I guess I won’t ever see your pathetic & spiteful little list either. Because I sense that your mouth is in inverse proportion in size to your nads.
Von Kirsdarke@1257
The main scoreboard says it all.
Game over.
Let the dust settle as it will.
Plus in the US they are all done in, a long long day.
Von Kirsdarke
[
I wonder why nobody’s called Florida yet? Obama’s been leading by about 50,000 votes for a while now.]
I’m wondering why too. Most of the 3/4 of SFA votes yet to be counted are in a county where Obi is scoring over 60% . On the bright side it won’t matter if the Repugs printing presses and voting machine hackers go into overdrive over night. Hope for an Obi win tho because Jim Crow style laws are alive and well there. 23 % of African Americans in Florida are disenfranchised.
bemused@1220,
None of those are reasons for personal dislike.
Thank you for the covert support. 🙂
poroti – yes, I thought that while watching him at the Convention and wasn’t surprised when the commentator said later that he was a definite candidate for 2020 but maybe 2016 would be a goer.
Richo having a hell of a stoush with Morrison. He is virtually calling Morrison a liar over the Libs AS policy.
[I guess I won’t ever see your pathetic & spiteful little list either. Because I sense that your mouth is in inverse proportion in size to your nads.]
I cannot tell you how hilarious it is to read a post about how sexist I am for criticising Gillard for backflips which ended in a claim about the size of my testicles!
Just breathtaking! 🙂
Sorry wrong thread
Well done on the prediction, Mod Lib. Glad to see you were right on the EV. Some would’ve mocked for saying it’s too optimistic but you stuck to it and win the prize!
Also, Nate Silver has earned infinite cred and is untouchable now.
YAAAAAY. Obama now scores over 50 % of the popular vote. 50.1% . A possible Repug “No Mandate” meme is being neutered.
Keep counting them Californian hippie votes 🙂
Ah, thanks everyone for the info on Florida.
Also, I see Obama is ticking slowly toward a 2 million vote lead in the popular vote. So much for people like Donald Trump screaming and gnashing their teeth over Obama losing the popularity vote, eh?
BK’s question a ways back on state GDP for Democrats Vs Repug voting. Assuming Florida goes with Democrats, 66.6% Dems, 33.4% Repug (2010 data)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP
Mod Lib,
I can’t tell you how predictable it is to read a post from you ignoring the substance of my argument.
Heh, Donald Trump: “This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!”
You’re fired, American public!
Also, Obama actually has a majority of the popular vote. First time a president has managed to win a majority of the popular vote two times in a row since Reagan.
This is what I would love to do for the ALP. This work is my speciality.
http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/
BH/poroti
Yeah Julian Castro is impressive! Reminds me of that guy who gave a pretty good speech back at the 2004 Dem convention. What happened to him?
C@tmomma@1267
Just a simple statement of fact.
I really don’t know what Mod is on about.
Carey Moore,
I do hope that Mr Trump isn’t listening. You might get hexed for mentioning that inconvenient fact.
Meanwhile, night all.
mimhoff
[Yeah Julian Castro is impressive! Reminds me of that guy who gave a pretty good speech back at the 2004 Dem convention. What happened to him?]
Welcome to the PB lounge and SNAP ! 🙂
bemused,
I really don’t know what Mod is on about.
Some sort of definitive list which is supposed to definitively prove what a definite failure, and most definitely what a backflipping hypocrite, Julia Gillard is.
Not that any of it would pass a credibility test. 🙂
Also, George Allen rejected by Virginia a second time. Can’t tell you how satisfying it is to see his comeback attempt go down in flames!
Interesting bit from an interview earlier this arvo on the drum with a repug and a democrat.
The democrat was talking how the arithmetic was working against the repugs, viz in this and the last election 19 US States returned 242 Electoral votes to the democrats and the repugs never had a chance of winning most of those states.
Actually, Julian and Juan Castro could really knock the Diversity ball out of the park by becoming the first Latino-American Twins to be President and Vice President of the United States! Pity they weren’t girls as well. 🙂
Carey Moore
[Also, Nate Silver has earned infinite cred and is untouchable now.]
Yep, and the New York Times will be over the moon and, I suggest, rather relieved. They put a significant chunk of their credibility on the line by associating their paper with him, so it would have been accutely embarrassing for them if Silver had screwed up.
Space Kidette@1279
Send a copy of that article and your offer to the ALP Federal Secretary.
If you want a laugh…see the prediction(of a Romney win by around 300 E>C votes by a guy on” Menzies House”)
Bernardi ought to sack him !
Their US” expert”…Illhttp://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2012/11/obamaromney-final-prediction.html#comment-6a012876778d82970c017ee4d4ab13970d..Iljazi” predicted the win without any qualms..and even why the various states would go Repub
A real hoot!!
http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2012/11/obamaromney-final-prediction.html#comment-6a012876778d82970c017ee4d4ab13970d
acutely
Carey Moore@1285,
Also, George Allen rejected by Virginia a second time. Can’t tell you how satisfying it is to see his comeback attempt go down in flames!
Damn, Macacas. 🙂
C@tmomma@1284
Julia Gillard can be a success or a failure independently of being liked or not liked.
The two should not be confused.
laopcoon
Yes, a good stratification – 66% of GDP by Obama states.
Democrats – representing the USA that matters.
[laopcoon]
Oops!
laocoon
bemused,
I would have thought they’d be doing it as a standard.
My final comment of the night about the election will be an observation that I believe that Electoral Reform will be high on Constitutional Professor Obama’s list of things to do in his Second Term. I just noticed that his look of ‘Blue Steel’ (in joke for Zoolander fans 🙂 ), slipped through the nice guy mien, just for a nanosecond, when he made a comment that he would be doing something about the long lines at the polling stations.
I mean, it would not be a good look for Republicans to be fighting to the death over their gerrymandering and vote manipulation & disenfranchising practices in a public stoush with a President wanting to do something to increase democracy in the ‘Land of the Free’, would it?
[Carey Moore
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 8:32 pm | PERMALINK
Also, George Allen rejected by Virginia a second time. Can’t tell you how satisfying it is to see his comeback attempt go down in flames!]
I guess the Macaques kept procreating, eh?
Trump is still going off on Twitter. I tweeted and asked him if he had taken his meds.
Space Kidette@1299
Moments to treasure.
At last something his money can’t buy!