If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:
I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.
Mod Lib you predicted that Gillard would be out of the job by September and the polls would stay 55/45 or better for the Coalition?
WRONG and WRONG!
You also said that Rudd would always be more popular than Gillard among Labor voters.
Again, WRONG!
BK@1185
Just allocate them according to today’s result –
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP
About 50% of GDP in the top 10 states – many of the key states today.
Mod Lib,
To make a prediction that Gillard is going to lose the next election is sexist is it?
Says it all really….
OK, smart boy, outline exactly WHY it is you dislike Julia Gillard so intensely.
rosemour
Another one who couldn’t tip water out of a bucket!
poroti
I like it. But is is sexist for a simian.
@BBCWorld: “Europe is waking up with general sigh of relief” – how #Obama win will affect US relations overseas http://t.co/xTJ8Y8Le #election2012
Catmomma
Mod Lib dislikes Julia because she is a serious threat to his mob – that is all!
So the question is now, how can the GOP recover from this? Playing at a small group of swing states isn’t going to work as we saw tonight–Romney basically had to win all of them to have a shot. And in my opinion it is far more likely for the South to be picked up by the Democrats (another candidate like Clinton could do it, or more Latino voters in Texas) than for the Republicans to take Democratic strongholds.
In 2016 the US will hopefully get out of economic trouble and the Tea Party will be even crazier. Or will it?
So, the only war the West is likely to start in the next four years is one with Iran.
rosemour,
Go take an Elavil.
rosemour
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
but…I’ve got this terrible creepy sense that Abbott is going to romp in next year……
Maybe we need you feeling that way. Earlier today, you had this sense that Romney was going to win.
Yay Obi hits the 50.0 % pop vote mark.
dave@1202
In that top 10 only one, Texas, is solid Repug.
It would be an interesting exercise to sort into 2 columns, based on today’s results and see the answer to BK’s question.
It would run way counter to the Repug notion that they represent the most productive parts of the country.
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 12:46 am | PERMALINK
I was out, so sorry for the delay! However, I am not changing my earlier prediction- Obama 332 (just minor changes to margins):
Minnesota: +5 +4
Wisconsin: +5 +5
Nevada: +5 …. now +4 +7
Ohio: +1 … now +2 +2
Colorado: +2 … now +1 +3
Virginia: +1 +2
New Hampshire: +1 … now +2 +5
Iowa: +2 … now +3 +6
Florida: +0.1 … now +0.5 +0.8
North Carolina: -2.0 -2
Obama 50.8% 50.0
Romney 48.0% 48.5 ]
The current results in bold (didn’t do to badly did I?).
The final national total will improve for Obama as half the votes in California and Washington are yet to be counted and Obama is romping it in there.
And what about the Senate?
[236
Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 12:48 am | PERMALINK
Senate predictions (draft 2) = 54 Currently 54, probably will be 55
That is made up of 47 safe Senate seats, including Maine Independent King, plus:
Mass: Dem (Warren) +5 Yep, +8
Conn: Dem (Murphy) +5 Yep, +9
Missouri: Dem (McCaskill) +5 Yep, but +15
Wisconsin: Dem (Baldwin) +2 Yep, +4
Virginia: Dem (Kaine) +1 Yep, +4
Indiana: Dem (Donn) +1 … now +4 Yep, +6
Montana: Dem (Tester) +1 Yep, but +7
Nevada: Rep (Heller) -1 Yep, -1
Nth Dakota: Rep (Berg) -3 Wrong, +1
Arizona: Rep (Flake) -3 Yep, -6
Nebraska: Rep (Fisher) -5 Yep, but-17 ]
Not bad eh?
[C@tmomma
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:05 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib,
To make a prediction that Gillard is going to lose the next election is sexist is it?
Says it all really….
OK, smart boy, outline exactly WHY it is you dislike Julia Gillard so intensely.]
Sure, but on another day….too excited today for such things!!!! 🙂
Mod Lib@1215
Stop teasing C@tmomma!
bemused:
I have itemised the Gillard hypocrisy and backflips so many times that I see no particular reason to go over it again and again. I still have to update the list with all the further failings since I last did it and cant be bothered really…
The majority here think she is fab and want her to lead the ALP to the next election (and forever apparently), so far be it from me to prevent you from doing just that.
Suits all of us and our wishes perfectly, so why argue about it?
Lil off topic,
@Mod lib,
https://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm/status/266091732859502593
I think Turnbull is doing a Mitt Romney..
[And in my opinion it is far more likely for the South to be picked up by the Democrats (another candidate like Clinton could do it, or more Latino voters in Texas) than for the Republicans to take Democratic strongholds.]
mimhoff – A youngish Latino spoke at the Democratic Convention in August and he warmed up the crowd for Obama. His speech was terrific. He has a twin brother but I can’t remember their names. One is a State Governor, I think.
The bloke who spoke was mentioned as a future Presidential candidate for the Dems.
Mod Lib@1217
None of those are reasons for personal dislike.
BH
Heres ya go. Both bros 🙂
[
Julian Castro DNC Speech (COMPLETE): ‘It Starts With Education’]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jx3m7jk1CY
Well, many thanks to TLBD, I’m back to my proper moniker to say OH RIPPER! The rape contestants defeated, Romney and Ryan defeated in their home states and a serious dent in the Tea Party approach to politics, Murdoch and all their appalling running mates.
Obama may be still seriously hamstrung by the realpolitik of the U.S.A. but at least the result stymies the worst of the more extreme in the U.S.
Wonder if it will make any difference here.
Other measures on the ballot:
Washington votes for legalising marijuana and same-sex marriage
Colorado votes for legalising marijuana
North Dakota votes for a smoking ban
Minnesota votes AGAINS a same-sex marriage ban
Maine votes for legalising same-sex marriage
Maryland votes for same-sex marriage
Off to the Galaxy thread for me. If Mod Lib can claim being 10 points off as a prediction this thread has entered the twilight zone.
zoilord:
I suspect we will be seeing and hearing more from Turnbull in the media in the next 6 months!!!!
Grover on 7:30!!!!!
Suck eggs 🙂
Grover – what went wrong? on 730
Grover has a sad sad look on face…..
I’m laughing so much I’ve got tears in my eyes, but thankfully not my beer 🙂
I thought Mod Lib’s predictions were pretty good, actually.
Mod Lib
[
Grover on 7:30!!!!!]
Who is Grover ? No 7.5 yet in the wild wild west.
Welcome back {as} HSO 🙂
Leigh is interviewing Republican Grover Norquist about election loss. Will she ask him about his ridiculous and simplistic “no tax increase” pledge that he expects all politicians to sign or he trashes them publicly, implying that they are willing to raise taxes?
I just noticed Allen West lost his seat. So much for the New Black Republicans. Sadly it looks like Michelle Bachmann will narrowly hold hers.
@Psephos/1228
I predicted that Obama will win, I didn’t care for numbers 😀
poroti@1229
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/why-grover-norquist-is-an/614777
triton
[
Leigh is interviewing Republican Grover Norquist about election loss]
Ta muchly.It will be lovely to watch.
poroti – thanks. Both guys were impressive but one just a little more confident than the other.
HSO – so nice to see the other ‘moniker’ back.
dave
And a ta muchly to you as well .
Been watching FoxNews and, as expected, they are beginning to eat their young. Not so bad now but when the big guns like O’Reilly and Hannity clock on, look out! Not to mention America;s version of Dolly Downer, Sarah Palin. She’ll be good for a couple of spectacularly stupid comments.
As for the concession speeches, it has to be said that Romney’s was gracious and good. John Boehner, on the other hand, was as full of viciousness and spite as you would expect from the side of politics that has self-entitlement as it’s major platform. If they were the party of “no” for the past four years, I wouldn’t be expecting too much to change.
oroti – meant to ask what you thought of Julian Castro.
Bachmann is winning? Damn, that’s one stain on US politics I was hoping we’d be rid of.
I heard a story that she said that she “went on a walk to talk to Jesus” when she wondered why anyone would want to oppose the same sex marriage ban.
And Leigh Sales thought he was going to dump on the Tea Party when he’s basically a mainliner of Tea Party philosophy?
Grover and his pledge. Ick.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Norquist
[poroti
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:47 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Grover on 7:30!!!!!
Who is Grover ? No 7.5 yet in the wild wild west.]
He is the guy who got Republicans to sign a document saying they would not raise taxes. Those not signing were doomed to primary death.
He is a schmuck and looked like he was sitting on something uncomfortable during the interview….methinks it was the boot of the American people in a rather awkward place! 🙂
As for Boehner, he’d better look out. Obama is now in the “No more Mr. Nice Guy” 2nd Presidential term, and probably won’t be as willing to roll over for him like he was in the past 2 years.
[Psephos
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 7:46 pm | PERMALINK
I thought Mod Lib’s predictions were pretty good, actually.]
Thanks 🙂
Boerwar
[Sky just referred to the ‘Royal Couple’ but Ms Parker-Bowles is only a Duchess of Cornwall, so she is not royalty, n’est pas.
Is my interpretation correct?]
No.
She is HRH
http://www.royal.gov.uk/ThecurrentRoyalFamily/TheDuchessofCornwall/TheDuchessofCornwall.aspx
BH
[Poroti – meant to ask what you thought of Julian Castro.]
I can see him being the first Latino POTUS.
Mod Lib
[He is the guy who got Republicans to sign a document saying they would not raise taxes. Those not signing were doomed to primary death.]
Thanks but what is he gunna do about the price of bananas ? 😆
L
Thanks.
People I have asked in Europe and Australia uniformly were barracking for Obama.
Relieved the nutjob is denied the White House but won’t rest peacefully until I am sure Fox News hasn’t pulled another swifty.
[Thanks but what is he gunna do about the price of bananas ]
The Republicans have gone bananas, I don’t think they care how much they cost! 🙂