Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition

A lot has happened since Galaxy’s last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.

The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).

UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.

Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.

October 27, 2012

					#	%	Swing	2PP	%
Alex Greenwich (Independent)		17,687	47.3%		21,283	63.7%
Shayne Mallard (Liberal)		11,543	30.9%	+5.3%	12,120	36.3%
Chris Harris (Greens)			6,616	17.7%	+4.9%
Glenn Wall (Independent)		825	2.2%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic)	724	1.9%	+0.8%
Labor							-11.3%

Formal					37,395	97.2%	-0.6%	
Informal				1,062	2.8%	+0.6%
Enrolment/Turnout			61,428	62.6%	-21.3%

Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.

October 20, 2012

				Seats	#	%	Swing
Liberal				8 (+2)	86,032	38.9%	+7.3%
Labor				8 (+1)	85,991	38.9%	+1.5%	
Greens				1 (-3)	23,773	10.7%	-4.9%
Others				0 (-)	25,376	11.5%	-3.9%

Formal					221,172	96.5%	+0.3%
Informal				7,953	3.5%	-0.3%
Enrolment/Turnout			256,702	89.3%	-1.1%

Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,686 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Joe & TLBD, so we just go with the intermittent and weird?
    Sounds sort of Zen and the art of Pollbludger maintenance.
    Catch you tomorrow.

  2. GG


    Good try I just said you show the same prejudice. Gave examples of other areas such prejudice is used.
    Do not care. The march for Marriage Equality continues.
    Some more has happened in the US.

  3. TLBD
    [What it gives me is that when I go to my GP she refers me to a specialist]
    Same here but without the expense of private cover. When I’ve needed a specialist I’ve been referred to one. Sometimes that specialist has referred me on to another. I’ve never been refused access or excellent treatment because I am a Medicare patient.

    You do not need private cover to get good specialist treatment. This is just one of the myths private health insurers love to push – ‘You can have the doctor of your choice’. I’ve proved that line to be a lie many times over.

  4. HSO,
    Get it?

    You don’t have to keep putting those nasty retorts at the end of your posts. I get it already! I was simply casting around for some sort of solution to this diabolical problem. OK?

  5. C@tmomma,

    I’ve been meaning to ask – are you past the horrors of exams and into the even worse horrors of waiting for the results???

  6. SMH: Police called to St Johns Campus. Safe house hotel established for some students.

    Tomorrows Herald

    Just ‘boys being boys’ again?

    A good time for a PM to be an atheist.

    Good night all. 🙂

  7. There is much in this world that I don’t know. There is much,much more that I don’t understand. But, there is something I do know.

    The path to an understanding of your God does not start with the bloodied vaginas, scarred anuses, broken spirits and tortured souls of the innocent. To be given the responsibility of teaching the young and vulnerable the strength and beauty of spiritual light whilst predating from the very shadows it seeks to overcome is evil in its most malevolent form. That this evil was dealt with in an, apparently, systemic and refined system of transfers and cover up beggars belief.

    As a society we will demand truth, justice and revenge. Justice and revenge we can and will understand. Truth? Who knows?

    [ There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.
    Henry David Thoreau ]

  8. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry?

    It seems that many have already made up their minds and are now looking for a Government funded inquisition to provide the evidence to support their bigotry/opinions/special knowledge.]

    There a good people in the catholic church, they do not deserve this. A royal commission would give the church a fresh start. As it is the stink is effecting everything they do, which is very unfair.

  9. [As it is the stink is effecting everything they do, which is very unfair.]

    Only where people armed with limited knowledge pre-judge and damn the whole organization and its members on heresay and prejudice.

  10. frednk,

    There are good people every where.

    Apart from some undefined notion that an RC is a magical deodorising cureall, my point stands.

  11. Coorey already rewriting history. Surely the chronology isn’t *that* hard to get right.

    [She blasted Mr Abbott as a sexist and a misogynist, and the speech resonated with many professional women, regardless of political leaning.

    It was widely covered internationally, too, making headlines in the US, India, Canada, Britain and South Africa, and was watched on YouTube 300,000 times in one day.

    Since then, Labor has been seeking to exploit Mr Abbott’s perceived unpopularity among women voters, to the extent his wife, Margie, was moved to speak out in support of her husband.

    Read more:

  12. guytaur,

    [ SMH: Police called to St Johns Campus. Safe house hotel established for some students. ]

    I expect this lady in shining Armour will be racing to the rescue of these poor innocent victims that have been so wronghfully accused. And just because they come from rich and highly connected families and all.

    [ THE St John’s College mother who represented 32 of the 33 students involved in the poisoning of a teenage girl stands by her conviction that they have been treated unfairly, saying the rector’s behaviour was ”disturbing”.

    Caroline Ravenscroft, a criminal barrister, said she felt compelled to step in on behalf of the students when they faced a disciplinary hearing before the former Federal Court judge Roger Gyles earlier this year.

    ”I felt strongly that the investigation into the incident had been conducted unfairly,” said Ms Ravenscroft, whose son was one of the accused.

    ”So I assisted the students in appealing the actions and decisions of the rector. ]

    [ She would not be drawn on the vandalism allegations, other than to lambast the Herald and its informants for publicising them during the exam period, in what she said was a ”disturbingly one-sided” account of events.

    The students were not her ”clients”, nor did she know anything about those incidents, she said.

    But she confirmed that she had acted for them pro bono at a time they were concerned that the odds were stacked against them.

    The rector’s original investigation of an incident that resulted in a first-year student being taken to hospital, after drinking a cocktail of alcohol and household liquids, denied them due process, Ms Ravenscroft said. It was this which prompted the appeal.

    The students were happy with the outcome. Mr Gyles upheld the suspension but said they could not be compelled to do community service, and allowed them to stand for the student council. ]

  13. I don’t think any of the child predators in the Christian Churches took this piece of Scripture literally or were frightened by it. This passage sticks out to me every time I hear or read about abuse in the church.

    My explanation is that they either don’t believe or they think that all they need to do each time they offend is go to confession with one of their mates who is most likely an offender also.

    [ And Jesus called a little child unto him, and set him in the midst of them,
    And said, Verily I say unto you, Except ye be converted, and become
    as little children, ye shall not enter into the kingdom of heaven.
    Whosoever therefore shall humble himself as this little child, the same is greatest in the kingdom of heaven.
    And whoso shall receive one such little child in my name receiveth me.
    But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea. ]

  14. Guytaur, earlier. I think you are wrong about the sucess of Royal Commissions in getting to the root of problems, and the Woods RC is a good example of a RC generating lots of good gossip, a few colourfull scalps, but bugger all real improvements. The most famous scalp from that RC was Trevor Haken, a baddie from central casting who gained no sympathy from anybody and deserver none. But he was just floss on the problems that faced Law Enforcement in Australia then, and still do. The Painters and Dockers was another colourfull inquiry that had a baddie for all tastes including tax evaders for those who couldnt get excited about run of the mill crims. The P&D are still going strong (although the gang wars in Melbourne a few years ago certainly took something of a toll), and have branched out into “industrial relations consulting” as well as the amphetamine trade, and tax evasion is still the biggest criminal enterprise in Australia by a big margin.
    A Rc into pedophiles in the Churches will do nothing concrete about the problem, but it will provide several years of blood sport as all kinds of allegations are made and mostly refuted and journos and lawyers will be in seventh heaven.

  15. Now “THIS” is what I call confidence.;-)

    [ The site invited people to the inauguration in Washington on January 21, and included links to a newsroom and applications for jobs in the Romney administration.

    “Please check back here in the coming weeks for more information and details about President-elect Romney’s inauguration,” the website said.

    The screenshots showed three pages, including one with pictures of both Romney and his running mate, Representative Paul Ryan, described as “the vice president-elect.” ]

  16. J6P # 3625, yes thought the same thing, there is just nothing like the sound of those Merlins. (with all respect to everyone who flew anything else on any side of course)

    On the other thing, please dont misunderstand, I ain’t calling for a witch hunt, I posted earlier today against the – all who dont call for a royal commission are evil – thing ; I do think though that serious reflection and accountability are in order

  17. The SMH showcases two of the great modern journalists in Matt Peacock and Kate McClymont this morning. McClymont with more about another ‘colourful character’ to front ICAc and Peacock on asbestos and James Hardie.

    Links to follow

  18. My son started at Macquarie Uni this year (alas, he’s since dropped out) and was at a residential college there.

    It had a very strict – to my mind, at the time, perhaps too strict – attitude to alcohol.

    It was banned, full stop. No questions asked.

    Students who wanted to drink had to leave the premises and go to a hotel or similar.

    I just thought that was par for the course, nowadays.

  19. Leonie @3616

    Hear hear. Your multiple experiences getting very expensive (and urgent) health trreatent mirror mine. I was diagnosed with a very large brain tumour (found to be benign), and was given the best treatment, post-haste, by one of Australia’s top neurosugeons and his team of approximately a dozen consultant neurologists. I didn’t have to pay a cent.

    Thank God I live in Australia. I, too, think that much of the time private health cover is a crock.

  20. 3488
    [Why is that only Lisa Wilkinson can interview Abbott properly (saver perhaps one leigh sales, and one kerry interview)? The OM should be ashamed of themselves. Abbott reveals himself to be utterly vacant when pressed on any issue. I cant believe he doesnt even appear to do a little homework and talk in a bit more depth. He has nothing but the slogans]

    I am genuinely amazed at how shallow and superficial is Mr A. Is this all he and his political minders can come up with after 3 years?


    I always thought the No Plan B jibe was only half true, that it was a bit of an exaggeration for effect. But it increasingly seems that they actually don’t have anything else except repeating the same mindless, stale, bankrupt slogans.

  21. GG says – The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry?

    Can you think of any other way of investigating a matter involving ongoing multiple child rapes in great numbers over many years (crimes potentially attracting life sentences) ; claims of cover up by the nation’s largest religious body; serious and supported allegations of police malfeasance in dealing with the matter in several States; & suggestions of the involvement of senior politicians in NSW?

    A Federal Royal Commission, with the fullest of powers, is the only possible manner to deal with such things. This is not simply about child rape by people in positions of authority over them, heinous as that is. It is also about absolutely fundamental aspects of the actions of the Australian justice system, with suggestions of ongoing political interference.

    A Federal Royal Commission is simply the only alternative in such a situation.

  22. to the extent his wife, Margie, was moved to speak out in support of her husband.

    I like to imagine that family conversation-
    “Geez, darl, I’m real annoyed that those nasty left-wingers are saying you’re not the nice cuddly fella who really gets women that I know you are. Maybe I should go on a nationally orchestrated newspaper & TV campaign to set’em straight.”
    “Yes hon, that’s a good idea. It shouldn’t be too hard to organise. I’ll make a few calls.”

    We’ve all done it.

  23. Good response to that piece about beating the conservatives.

    I wonder if Obama has found the key to defeat the Fox Conservatives.
    He seemed to play right into their “trap” and then used their reaction against them.

    His first test was helping the car industry. The Fox Cons went nuclear. He went right to those people worried about their jobs in those swing states and said see I am trying to help you.

    He then pushed for Health Care reform with provision to offer free breast exams and birth control. The Fox cons went Nuclear. He went to women and said, see they really to support you.

    He then pushed for immigration reform. The Fox Cons went Nuclear. He went to the Latinos and said, “I got your back” and gave them the DEAM act which focused on their kids. When the Fox Cons attacked, the kid’s parents rose up to defend their children.

    Then Joe “leaked” that Obama was really pro marriage equality. The Fox Cons went nuclear. He went to the LGBT citizens and gave us a thumbs up that he wasn’t defending DOMA in the courts.

    He played the Fox Cons as fools and they gleefully marched right behind him wringing their hands with anticipation of his defeat. All the time he was secretly smiling and saying to himself, “Suckers”.

    Now the Republicans are now trapped by the Fox Cons and can’t move without their blessing.

  24. South Australia, one of the bastions of federation, has never had a High Court justice or a prime minister of Australia (though RJL Hawke was born at Bordertown).

    No wonder we feel inferior.

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