Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition

A lot has happened since Galaxy’s last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.

The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).

UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.

Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.

October 27, 2012

					#	%	Swing	2PP	%
Alex Greenwich (Independent)		17,687	47.3%		21,283	63.7%
Shayne Mallard (Liberal)		11,543	30.9%	+5.3%	12,120	36.3%
Chris Harris (Greens)			6,616	17.7%	+4.9%
Glenn Wall (Independent)		825	2.2%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic)	724	1.9%	+0.8%
Labor							-11.3%

Formal					37,395	97.2%	-0.6%	
Informal				1,062	2.8%	+0.6%
Enrolment/Turnout			61,428	62.6%	-21.3%

Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.

October 20, 2012

				Seats	#	%	Swing
Liberal				8 (+2)	86,032	38.9%	+7.3%
Labor				8 (+1)	85,991	38.9%	+1.5%	
Greens				1 (-3)	23,773	10.7%	-4.9%
Others				0 (-)	25,376	11.5%	-3.9%

Formal					221,172	96.5%	+0.3%
Informal				7,953	3.5%	-0.3%
Enrolment/Turnout			256,702	89.3%	-1.1%

Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,686 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. GG

    First thing you need to think about do you support Child Abuse. I assume you do not. So why are you defending an institution that has form with cover up on this. Not just in this country but world wide.
    Let the inquiries happen and the guilty if any found and punished.
    This needs to happen for the good people in the Church whose reputation and trust is suffering due to this. This will affect what good works can happen.
    Look at the irreparable damage that has been done in America to the Catholic Church.

  2. I would like to raise two points re the hoped for RC into sex abuse within the Churches. Firstly, having worked on two RCs some years ago, and been peripherally involved in two others I think you will be disappointed in the outcome if your wishes come true. RCs are good for salacious gossip to be aired, and the press Press love them because of that, but generally speaking buggar all comes of them.
    Secondly, having said that I believe as a practicing Catholic the best thing the Churches could do would be to cooperate fully with a RC in order to clear the air, get all the evidence out into the open, refute what can be reasonably be refuted, accept responsibility for events which on the balance of evidence actually took place, allow offenders to face justice, and be morally cleansed so to speak. The falling numbers of regular attenders at Churches is evidence enough that all is not well with religious organisations and such a cleansing might help to stem the tide of disaffected parishioners.
    An enquiry might also refute the general belief that the majority of religious personnel are offenders. My personal belief and experience is that offenders are rare within the Churches, but where thay exist they are prolific offenders.

  3. Guytaur,

    You’ve already reached your conclusions, so what good will the answers be?

    Your supporter, Bemused above, proves my point. He blocks my posts and then has the stupidity to say that others can’t handle the truth when his comment is based solely on prejudice.

  4. C@tmomma way back at 3465, I think.
    Sorry it’s taken some time to get back to you. For some totally inexplicable reason I keep having to log in to each new page.
    Anyway, I understand your question to be about whether or not I can back up my assertion that access to adult relationships with women mitigate paedophiles psychopathology.
    Firstly, the Finkelstein studies clearly demonstrate this, and there’s plenty more to back him up.
    Secondly, having participated in the first treatment program for intrafamilial sexual abuse on Australia with one of my primary functions being to assess the perpetrators, the main thing about access to adult female sexual relationships appears to be that they find them unsatisfying for a number of reasons, i.e., they feel like wimps, not sufficiently powerful. So there you go.
    Wanna challenge that?
    I’ll check back in when I log back in on the next page.

  5. Michael,

    Thanks for your insight. (PB does that to all of us)
    [… the general belief that the majority of religious personnel are offenders.]
    No reasonable person thinks that.

  6. Michael,

    Thank you for such plain speaking.

    I mostly agree with you, with one exception. Given that the Church has a very long history of concealment of anything that might detract from its image, I think that more than a mea culpa is needed. What exactly would suffice I don’t know at the moment.

    I would also like to make it clear that, whatever I have written here, I have no quarrel with the matter of faith (despite my lack thereof). My sole concern is with what I perceive as an institution that has – to put it mildly – been corrupted.

  7. frednk@3568

    Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    I should add that if priests are no more likely than others to be paedophiles but are worse long-term offenders, it’s not the celibacy thing that’s the problem; it’s the fact they get away with it for so long.

    How do you explain the statistics, that is the number in the general population per male against the number in the church per priest. You have a choice celibacy or god made them do it.

    The so long just means the bad apples cause a lot of problems and continue to do so.

    Firstly, I would like to see a National Royal commission into all denominations.

    With regard to the numbers, it is not necessarily that any aspect of the RCC causes paedophilia. It could be more about opportunity. We know paedophiles are in contact with each other and enable and help each other. They even can regard themselves as a persecuted minority and support each other in the way they live. as well as recruiting others.

    Therefore, if they see an situation they can infest and turn to their own devices, they will do it. Any organisation that can provide them with access, power, opportunity and a cover is at risk.

    Once in the hierarchy they will change the systems to protect themselves and their activities, and create their own paedo-ring. So it is not the Church practices that made people into pedophiles, it is the paedophiles who made the Church their private hunting ground and sanctuary.

    These people are as close to evil as you can get.

  8. I think anyone who doubts that there is a problem should check Lateline last night, and tonight.

    And on that note, Goodnight, dear bludgers.

  9. Guytaur,

    First thing you have to learn is don’t build strawmen arguments. It leads dimwits like yourself to accuse people of being Nazis and miscegnists without any evidence.

  10. GG

    I have reached no conclusions. Other than some proven ones from inquires that have happened. In the US and Ireland for example. In Australia we have documented evidence of cover up. We now have some allegations that brings suspicion. A Royal Commission will clear the matter up.
    Understand this is an attack on perceived evil. Not the Church. You need to see the difference.

    Michael. Well Posted.

  11. HSO,

    [… having participated in the first treatment program for intrafamilial sexual abuse on Australia with one of my primary functions being to assess the perpetrators, the main thing about access to adult female sexual relationships appears to be that they find them unsatisfying for a number of reasons, i.e., they feel like wimps, not sufficiently powerful.]

    Wow, do you bring back some memories for me! Specifically, when during a seminar about some frightfully important topic I opined that rape had zilch to do with sexual desire, and everything to do with exercising power …

  12. I don’t have private health insurance, I can’t afford it.

    I think a health system where those who can afford private cover can get surgery ‘next week’ while those who rely on the public system have to wait for months, even years, is an abombination. We can do better than that in this country, surely.

    There was a time when I paid for private cover. When I had my first lot of cancer treatement it was as a private patient in a public teaching hospital. They gave me every possible test and the gap fees cost a bomb.

    Five years later I was back for round 2, this time as a public patient. By then I was a single mum on welfare and had had to ditch the private cover. Same hospital, same referring specialist, same excellent level of care. Again I had the doctor my specialist at home wanted for me. So much for public patients not getting the doctor of their choice. Straight in, no waiting. This time, again, loads of tests, chemo, scans, the works, and it did not cost me a cent.

    Many years later I needed gall bladder surgery. Again, I had the specialist I wanted. I asked him if it would be faster if I simply paid for the private hospital – my mum had left me some money and I would gladly have spent the lot on getting shot of the pain I was living with. The surgeon said the local private hospital did not have the equipment he needed so it has to be the public hospital. I waited six weeks, classified as ‘urgent’. Paying for private cover, for years, would have done me no good at all that time.

    Private cover is a crock, you don’t need it. It has nothing to do with pride or looking after yourself, it has everything to do with profits for big companies, with discrimination and with denying care to those who desperately need it simply because they can’t pay. We would all be better off if the money wasted on private cover rebates was, instead, poured into the public health system.

  13. GG

    [First thing you have to learn is don’t build strawmen arguments. It leads dimwits like yourself to accuse people of being Nazis and miscegnists without any evidence.]

    I am not the one making accusations. I am one arguing for a legal process to find out the truth.

  14. Leone,

    Pssst, just take care as you leave this evening – there are some petrol-soaked bundles of kindling piled up around a stake that’s festooned with the odd chain or three …

  15. GG

    Results of Royal Commissions depends on what the government does with the recomendations.

    The Wood Royal Commission was good at seeing corrupt police getting consequences.

  16. HSO@3605,
    having participated in the first treatment program for intrafamilial sexual abuse on Australia with one of my primary functions being to assess the perpetrators, the main thing about access to adult female sexual relationships appears to be that they find them unsatisfying for a number of reasons, i.e., they feel like wimps, not sufficiently powerful. So there you go.
    Wanna challenge that?

    Explain to me then why there isn’t the same level of paedophilia in the Anglican Church?

  17. yes fiona things where different then our premier has just apolgised to mums here who where forced to give up their babies for adoption and that was NOt at a catholic
    home by the way, things where different becauce they where
    you obviously have had a differnet up bringing to me i ca me from a working suburb of hobart where things where not disuccsed like pregnancies out side marriage, where parents sent their daughers to these home s
    so are you blaming the nuns and religious people for that
    i have a cousin who does not know she is my cousin
    she was a baby from a mum who was sent to a home that was not catholic, her mother disowned her and the baby the mother stayed in that home till she died the baby left to face the world she was boarding with frineds of my parents my father worked out who she was but being young himself was to scared to say
    so would you suggest we have a royal commission in to those circumstances
    there is a lot of snobbery also inthe world in rich peoples homes that kept skeletons in cupboard
    we could go on and on,
    the woman you speak of at the covent of the good sheapard may be had some of these young girls who where put there by their parents by the way the people i new where not catholic

    time where differnt then now these same woman would end up on the street or a womans shelter but be told to move on
    the nuns kept these young woman there
    i have been to that convent it s attached not to a nursing home it was clean and warm and welcoming

    have you been there, nl

  18. guytaur,

    Of course! It’s well known that Police corrruption has now been totally wiped out in NSW because of the “Woods Royal Commission”.

    You never expect the “Woods Royal Commission”!

  19. TLBD, I’m using Mozilla. It’s weird and intermittent, much like the internal light in the car, which will turn itself off and on seemingly randomly.
    Fiona, you’re mostly spot on with the power take on rape. There’s always that, but there can always be a bit extra, which I won’t go into, on account of it’s nasty and not needed here.

  20. i knew all about that expolsion it was a terrible accident

    so where you living her at the time
    no i did nt think so,
    i actully heard the bang from my home, so yes it was massive from memory quite a few people lost their lives.
    those young woman had been there all their lives may be
    what sort of employment would you wanted them to have,
    may be they where happy there
    who knows.,you dont and neither do i

  21. leone,
    [Private cover is a crock, you don’t need it.]
    I have it and can afford it.

    What it gives me is that when I go to my GP she refers me to a specialist.

    She has done so on four occasions now for me and OH. Those particular specialists just might have been out of reach otherwise.

    She has been my GP since 1994 and she really is the goods. Think medico in charge of the Oz Netball teams.

  22. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    I am using Mozilla as well and having the same stop /start problems, Might be time to change maybe?

  23. GG

    I am not claiming miracles. I am claiming this is the best answer to an appalling situation.

    You need to understand community sentiment is high on this and will get higher the more people in the Catholic Church try and stop inquiries.

    Mr O Farrell did not want an inquiry but he set up this narrow one to try and deflect community anger at what is happening. As has been seen a bit of a failure. Its the Church that needs investigating not just the police.

  24. leone,
    What defenders of the Private Health Industry don’t realise, as they mouth the justifications for the existence of Private Hospitals, that they have been fed by the Private Health Industry, so that they can suck them in for a lifetime of profit-making payments, is, that if there were no Private Hospitals, the Public Hospital system would just expand to accommodate the increased load.

    Private Hospitals have cushy rooms with better food. That’s about all you get for your premiums. 🙂

  25. HSO,

    I keep switching between Firefox and Chrome.

    I get logged off occasionally for no obvious reason. I think it is a crikey issue.

  26. “@penbo: Indigenous people get their own intervention over child abuse, churches get tax free status, school funding and policy influence. Nice.”

  27. ThisLittleBlackDuck,
    My son is about to go in for surgery to be performed by a team of the best Maxillofacial Surgeons in this country at Westmead Dental Hospital. We are Public Patients. We got to see them and be treated by them as soon as Private Patients. For free.

  28. C@tmomma, I and probably no one else has the comparative rates of clergy abuse of children across different religious afiliations, though it raises interesting questions.
    I’ve certainly not seen any research on comparative rates and I don’t think it’s where it’s at in terms of its occurrence.
    All I was trying to say is that in terms of what we do know, access to adult female sexual relationships is only a factor for this being less than fulfilling for them. Get it?

  29. My Say,

    Just to reassure you, my dad left school at 14 at the height of the Great Depression and did more than his share of sleeping rough before eventually WW2 came along. So stop imagining that I’m a silvertail, because I’m not.

    And where did I state that all the young girls (and they were girls, not women) who were in the laundries (not just in Hobart) were from Catholic families? Because I know only too well (from extended family reports) that girls from other denominations were likewise incarcerated.

    That’s my major complaint, My Say: it was “religious people” – and by that I don’t just mean clerics (i.e., priests), or members of religious orders (i.e., non-ordained monks, and *obviously* non-ordained nuns because how could a wimmin be ordained???) but people who regarded themselves of sufficiently high religious standing to make judgments about the likely life outcome of a 9, 10, 11 … 14 year old girl.

    That’s hubris. There were (and are) state-legislated bodies in place to make those decisions, but so many of the decisions that resulted in girls being placed in laundry enslavement were private decisions made by little dictators with an overweening sense of their own righteousness (Mr and Mrs Brown, I know that this is difficult to accept, but obviously Madge is too pretty for her own good. Just hand her over to … erm {can’t risk saying, to me} the good Sisters and she’ll be straightened out in no time…)

    Did you visit your particular Convent prior to 1984?

    I’ve been to the one down the road from where I live. The bars are still on the outside of the windows of the dorms where the girls lived. And I know some of the women who spent their teens there. Their stories are not pretty.

  30. I think my says argument is that Medicare can be seen as a form of middle class welfare. I tend to agree as does the current government which is slowly and subtly introducing a means test.

  31. Oakeshott Country@3644

    I think my says argument is that Medicare can be seen as a form of middle class welfare. I tend to agree as does the current government which is slowly and subtly introducing a means test.

    How are they doing this?

  32. HSO,

    I’m fairly sure that I know what you mean, and I agree – not for discussion in a family blog such as PB.


    My fire extinguisher is at your service any time.

  33. OC,

    Fair point.

    The context was Guytaur managed to accuse me of being opposed to mixed race marriages, the murder of blacks and in favour of sending Jews to the ovens during Hitler’s regime because I oppose homosexual marriage in Australia.

    He also expects me to take him seriously.

  34. Above a certain income you pay an extra levy if you do not have private health cover. The figure is set so that it makes economic sense to be privately insured – of course whether the rich then use the insurance is another thing.

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