GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.
The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).
UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.
UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.
Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.
SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES October 27, 2012 # % Swing 2PP % Alex Greenwich (Independent) 17,687 47.3% 21,283 63.7% Shayne Mallard (Liberal) 11,543 30.9% +5.3% 12,120 36.3% Chris Harris (Greens) 6,616 17.7% +4.9% Glenn Wall (Independent) 825 2.2% Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic) 724 1.9% +0.8% Labor -11.3% Formal 37,395 97.2% -0.6% Informal 1,062 2.8% +0.6% Enrolment/Turnout 61,428 62.6% -21.3%
Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION October 20, 2012 Seats # % Swing Liberal 8 (+2) 86,032 38.9% +7.3% Labor 8 (+1) 85,991 38.9% +1.5% Greens 1 (-3) 23,773 10.7% -4.9% Others 0 (-) 25,376 11.5% -3.9% Formal 221,172 96.5% +0.3% Informal 7,953 3.5% -0.3% Enrolment/Turnout 256,702 89.3% -1.1%
Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.
Fiona:
[Another thing that both intrigues and horrifies me about Mr Abbott and his ilk is the professed desire for performance- (aka merit-) based pay.]
The problem I have with Abbott isn’t so much that he’s ideologically driven AND cunning like Howard was, but that he’s ideologically driven AND clueless like GW Bush.
The former suggests a degree of smarts in recognising some degree of boundaries – yes I take the point about Workchoices, but in earlier terms Howard showed much more humility with his cunningness.
But the latter, as we saw with Bush represents chaos and bluster and abject horror. And of course we know that an Abbott government would be cheered on by Australia’s media in much the same way Howard was.
C@tmomma@3547
I am not clear on the exact status of “Catholic Hospitals”. Some may be private, but others, like St Vincents in Melbourne are funded by the State Govt and are part of the public system even though maintaining some Catholic identity.
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/11/08/will-the-us-election-boost-australian-pragmatism/
[ Posted on November 8, 2012 by David Walker
Will the US election boost Australian pragmatism?
Posted on November 8, 2012 by David Walker
US election-watching is a great spectator sport for many Australian politics-watchers. As Bob Carr says, it’s The Greatest Show On Earth. But in the actual real lives of Australians, the dull reality is that US elections generally have big direct effects on just one issue: the wars we will be asked to fight.]
Goes into the indirect affects in may have on the Australian Right, possibly a warning to shift towards pragmatism.
fiona,
Gimme some exact dates. SOs and offspring are always welcome. I’m thinking lunch-time picnic. Else, an evening at a restaurant of exogenous credentials.
Because Lyne Lady’s link deserves to be repeated:
[NEWLY re-elected US President Barack Obama complimented Julia Gillard on her “sexism” speech to Parliament when he telephoned her last night.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/obama-praises-gillards-sexism-speech/story-fndo4eg9-1226513851310
Just catching up after an evening with my family.
I have to clear something up. Earlier on someone said that Andrew Scipione, NSW Commissioner of Police, was a ‘devout Catholic’ and therefore would not be willing to investigate child abuse in that church. Sort of wrong, sort of right.
Scipione is a committed Baptist who also has ties to Hillsong Church. The Hillsong connection is interesting and could have something to do with his unwillingness to get involved in invetiagtions into child abuse in churches. Frank Houston, the father of Brian Houston, top man at Hillsong, was forced to leave New Zealand in the 1970s because of allegations he had sexually abused young boys in his church. Frank then opened a chuch in Sydney which later developed in Hillsong. In 2000 Frank finally confessed to Brian that he had sexually abused boys in his care in the 1970s. He was removed from all ministry at Hillsong but was never prosecuted by the police. Frank Houston died in 2004. Andrew Scipione attended his funeral. The abuse was a badly kept secret for 30 years, during which time Frank continued to preach and minister to his flock.
ok lbd
who do you think runs boarding schools
come on lets know
they are teachers the same as in a everyday boarding school
they are lay people who would also have to have police clearance, and for your information its nothing to do with faith as many are non catholics people chose catholic schools for the education .
as i said there is so much ignorance here on this blogg
i an still speechless.
my oh school was a boarding school, there was female matrons cooks and cleaners and mentours in the school that was in the 50s . many of our friends are past boarders
not one has ever complained about anything other than missing home and the farm we had 2000 old boys come last year to the reunions so they must of been happy
12 th boys have gone through that school.
and by the way they are well adjusted men who hold high positions all over the world
i am very proud of that school
is your old boy net work numbers in the thousands i bet there not
well about time for me to move on i beleive
In ythe final days of the American Campaign, whenever I saw Mitt Romney I was reminded of that Scientologist maniac who married Nicole Kidman. It was the glowing eyes. Scary.
my say
I like you a lot but on this discussion you may want to sit out.
Until the truth comes out {and the means following due process as most here called for 1 Craig Thompson) it may be best not to get worked up.
Same for every one else , don,t demonize anyone/organization until due process has been carried out
Fulvio #3543, thanks for that. So, underwriters? If they are ASX registered thye need to be disclosing risks right now or they are looking at a whole world of financial and legal hurt.
More Rudd Ridicule on my Facebook timeline, but also this:
http://whitepeoplemourningromney.tumblr.com/
And a comment from one of the posts:
[I’m moving to Australia because their President is a Christian and actually supports what he says.]
Absolutely hilarious! 😆
@BBCBreaking: “I will vote in favour of ordination of women bishops” – next #Archbishop of Canterbury, the Rt Rev Justin Welby. LIVE http://t.co/TBot0AW9
“@RAGreeneCNN: Incoming Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby promises to “examine my own thinking carefully” on gay issues”
I actually heard on Planet America tonight, from an authoritative source, that the magnitude of the effect on the American Economy of the Fiscal Cliff, if it goes into effect, is likely to be a lot less draconian than it is being painted as being in the press.
Apparently, the sort of GDP figures that are quoted, plus the nominal $ effects that it will have, relate to the fact of no deal being reached AFTER January 1st, as well as before. And then going on into perpetuity.
Which won’t happen.
The can may well be kicked down the road a ways by the Lame Duck Congress, with superficial agreement around the edges. Then, when the new Congress and Senate come in, serious negotiations will go on.
There are even some Republican Senators, from the old ‘Gang of 6’, who want to get something concrete done to restore the American Budget to health, in contrast to continuing to simply be ‘The Party of No’.
I’ve even read here today that revenue from a Carbon Price is on the agenda, plus a $2.50 tax cut for every $1 of new tax revenue. Which equates to not so much by way of drastic service cutting.
The Presidential election is over. The next lot up for re-election are the Mid Term Congress and House Members. Even if they were elected on a wave of Tea Party sympathy, I think their electorates have come to realise in the meantime what an end to the ‘Entitlement Mentality’, so as to give tax cuts mainly to the wealthy, actually means.
They have come to their own ‘Fiscal Cliff’ and had a look over and not liked what they saw. So I don’t think they’ll be as enthusiastic a bunch of supporters as they were last time.
Therefore a deal will most likely be done to avert going over the other ‘Fiscal Cliff’. 🙂
Confessions,
[… chaos and bluster and abject horror. And of course we know that an Abbott government would be cheered on by Australia’s media in much the same way Howard was.]
And for obvious reasons I find myself plagued with visions of a Barmecide feast.
[Scipione is a committed Baptist]
I find it very hard to find that someone “committed” to religion should have responsibility for an inquiry into the purported malfeasance of a religious authority.
Not per se but because each schism loves to do another, big time.
leone@3556
Interesting stuff.
I think there have been a few scandals over the years involving those fundy nutter outfits.
well catommma
that means YOU are putting up the waiting lists
all the population should take out private cover
i am sick of the gov, paying for people who chose not
to have private cover, then moan about not being able to have surgery
we still pay our private cover being on pension now
its not easy nor is it easy for our daughter with three children, but there you go they do and thank god they kept it up with all the sickness they have had with the children this year.
as i said people who chose not to be privatley covered
put the waiting lists up then scream at the gov
becauce they have to wait,
one goes to casualty and what do you see people there that could actully be at a gp clinic, children with coughs and
colds, medi care cover that but there they are taking up space in emergency .
the public hospital are wonderful places and are highly
skilled but for elective surgery one should keep ones cover so as to keep the state hospitals costs down
[Diogenes
Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
I should add that if priests are no more likely than others to be paedophiles but are worse long-term offfenders, it’s not the celibacy thing that’s the problem; it’s the fact they get away with it for so long.
]
How do you explain the statistics, that is the number in the general population per male against the number in the church per priest. You have a choice celibacy or god made them do it.
The so long just means the bad apples cause a lot of problems and continue to do so.
J6P # 3560, agree but how about due process in terms of prevention and restitution for involvement in or responsibility for already established wrongs. No sign of any such thing for mine.
My family is catholic by the way and we tend to think that forgiveness might first require confession and repentance, not much sign of that at all either.
my say,
I have no idea about who runs boarding schools.
I do know that schools that are subservient to any religion will mold the students, fair or foul.
I hate to think how many students have the Stockholm Syndrome.
LL is hoeing in to the limits of BOF’s inquiry. Go, the ABC!
[a7da0eb9da1a647b4c4d041ca4e09976
Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink
As a Catholic, I applaud those posters on PB who support a Royal Commission.
There are many in the church who just cant accept the shadow of abuse ,
They think they know.
There are none as deaf as those who will not listen.]
In my view this is going to hang over the church until there is a royal commission and it is dealt with. Trying to weazle out is just going to prelong the pain
lizzie
Spot on re Romney. The expression in his eyes actually looked maniacal.
Victoria is ahead of NSW in actually getting results out of the Catholic Church..
Mr Bailieu has done better on this.
The catholic church is “raising concerns about privacy”. Them and me too! for different reasons.
joe
6 pack
most of these things happend in a previous generation
to think they happen today in todays catholic schools is nonsence, for starters there is not a brother or priest in site, the teachers are all married with families and of course some young single people
the headmasters and head mistresses are also married
there are no more priests or brothers teaching
and as i said i saw nothing and neither did any of our family
so no joe i want sit this out i will not let a few people that have done wrong things taint the whole system
o a c tomma you never ever know whats around the corner
never thought my mum or dad or my mother in law or my father in law would end up in a nursing home
you put your name on a list and thats where you sent.
lizzie and victoria
He reminded me of an evangelical preacher. Like the Bakkers.
my say
[i am sick of the gov, paying for people who chose not
to have private cover, then moan about not being able to have surgery….as i said people who chose not to be privatley covered
put the waiting lists up then scream at the gov]
WTF ? What a nasty Ayn Randian Repug ” Death Panel” Attitude that is.
bemused
There is an awful lot of scandal hanging around Hillsong. A simple search will get you hours of reading. I’ve never understood why so many politicians were so keen to hang around the place. John Howard, Peter Costello, Helen Coonan, Alexander Downer and even Bob Carr while premier have all spoken at events and conventions at Hillsong. Mark Latham had the good sense to decline an invitation.
Marrickville Mauler
Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at
When all on her where very quick and rightly so to say Craig Thomson needs to go thru the process and anyone against labor where wanker lib robots .Now you want a huge witch hunt trial by media buy church organizations?>
“@MsMountebank: If nothing else, Minister Combet has caused many ABC presenters to say ‘bullshit’ today. Job done.”
i actully agree with joe
and shorten and pm
so i am in good company there
well time for me to leave this blog
o and by the way catholics vote labor also
The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry?
It seems that many have already made up their minds and are now looking for a Government funded inquisition to provide the evidence to support their bigotry/opinions/special knowledge.
GG
You are being refuted on Lateline as I type
Interestingly the big port project Barnett has been spruiking for years (made his own for that matter) has just fallen over as investors have decided to withdraw.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/oakajee-delayed-indefinitely-jobs-cut-20121108-290b0.html?skin=text-only
Something like $340 million taxpayers funds was invested by Barnett on his insistence it was a signature major infrastructure project that would pay for itself in time. He also leveraged federal govt support for the project as well – presumably bagging the Gillard govt out the other side of his mouth in the process, but never mind.
Will we ever get this money back? Unlikely. WA: littered with failed dreams of get-rich quick schemes. Barnett should’ve known better.
He was told at the seminary about paedophilia in the church.
Would someone like to ask Tone about what he learnt there?
guytaur,
That settles it then. Lateline is a well known and judicailly sound vehicle for justice and fair play.
well why is that paroti
if none of us had private cover no one would get in to a hospital for important surgery that was needed
its the people who pay their private cover that make that possible
same as school fees we chose to pay school fees
that frees up the state system
so that a republican view,
to me its about pride and being independant and making sure your family has the best care quickly
i know of a person who cannot see a neurosurgeon for 18 months i have a friend who need a serious back operation who has private cover who is being seen for surgery next week
like supperanuation , if one had enough super one could not get pension that would be a form of indepedance also.we
in this family have alwayts paid our way,
through good and bad times stayed in private cover so
in case we needed it was there.
my say,
I’m sorry, but you really should take Joe6Pack’s advice and go take a breather.
For a start, you may be on a Pension now but I bet you own your own home and so don’t have to pay 50% of your Pension weekly in Rent, as I do. Plus feed, clothe, educate and pay for the entertainment options of 2 young men. Not to mention maintain and run a car.
I don’t have enough money to pay to contribute to the profits of the Private Health Industry, thank you very much. Unless you would like I take food out of the mouths of my children and myself to do so?
I pay my taxes, and they go towards providing a Public Hospital system to take care of me and mine when we need it.
However, I do not ‘clog up’ the Public Hospital system instead of going to a GP. We have a family doctor who Bulk Bills, thank you for nothing.
The only people ‘clogging up’ the Emergency Department are Private Health Insurance holders unable to be seen in Private Hospitals. As Private Hospitals, at least in NSW, do not consider the provision of Emergency Services to be a financially-viable service which they should provide. Except for St Vincents in Darlinghurst, as far as I understand. Anyway, they’re not competent enough in the main to provide Emergency Services. So the Public Purse has to pick up that tab.
So, in effect, I’m actually paying, with my taxes, for Private Health Insurance holders to come and mooch off our fantastic Public Hospitals. 🙂
GG
Its a Catholic Priest calling for a Royal Commission.
leone@3579
Didn’t Rudd make the mistake of talking to them?
Personally, I wouldn’t give any of them the time of day.
From what I have observed, they tend to prey on the vulnerable and I suspect that is why they are so keen to offer “counselling” which of course draws in the vulnerable.
Kevin Lee is doing a great follow-up.
The CC in Oz has to own up.
Guytaur,
So what do the others think?
[i am sick of the gov, paying for people who chose not
to have private cover, then moan about not being able to have surgery]
Why?
This is precisely why we have a safety net, and as a taxpayer, I’m happy that my taxes contribute towards providing this for people less fortunate than myself.
GG
Lots of us want answers. The Catholic Church has this stigma around the world. These allegations need to be investigated with due process. It seems only a Royal Commission will get to the bottom of it. Any less and a cover up happens.
This is best for the Catholic Church to clean up their act and perceptions in this country.
Kevin Lee has spoken to Tone about becoming a pollie.
If he would pursue the CC, go bro!
guytaur@3595
Some people just can’t handle the truth.
My Say,
Are you aware of this?
Hobart also had a Convent of the Good Shepherd steam laundry. Remember? The one where the boiler blew up in 1974>?
Four women laundry workers died. We know a fair bit now about why they were there, and the conditions under which they were enslaved. None of them should ever have been there in the first place. You or I, My Say, given slightly different life circumstances, could have been any of those four women.
My OH lived in Hobart from 1953 to 1973, and as a then itinerant tradie had had some involvement with the Convent, fixing this and that. I asked him a few years ago what he thought of the young women who were doing the laundry work. He said wtte, well, that’s how things were then.
Not good enough. I told him so then, and I repeat that to anyone who tries the same line.
To be blunt with you, My Say: I’ve never understood how any woman of even the slightest intelligence could be conned by the misogynistic patriarchy that masquerades as the Catholic church. Better the Mafia: at least they’re honest about their aims.
Why can’t Emma speak to pollies as she did tonight?
Worth repeating. Great post, Inner Westie…
[Australian political journalists were the only ones perspicacious enough to see through Gillard’s stirring, internationally-lauded oratory. They knew the (slippery) political conext, and that her attack on Abbott’s sexism and misogyny had no truth or conviction beyond that required to secure a single, mangey lower house vote.
etcetra
If intellectual sloth, long-lunch hubris and blathering parochialism could be bottled and sold as an antidote to irrelevance, this mob would be millionaires…]