If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:
I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.
I hope Romney’s party listen to the part about not bickering and being bi partisan. Now will Boehner and McConnell listen.
WtR
It was the shortest, I imagine, so you may well be right.
Finns
It was pretty wooden but he said all the right things. He looked pretty crushed.
It appears those wishing to discuss “legal marijuana” are at risk of triggering my spam filter.
poroti
Alaska and Hawaii… poor things.
Looks like Nate Silver will be the big winner of the election. If FL tips to Obama then he will have predicted every state exactly.
Damn those druggies 🙂
Hewson and Chikaovski saying the “Hate politics” has to stop… in America.
No mention of right here.
[Hewson and Chikaovski saying the “Hate politics” has to stop… in America.
No mention of right here.]
It’s all about context
[John Hanna @John_Hanna
“Have to reach across the aisle” That will be different, can I hold the Republicans to it ? #Concession #USvotes
Expand
3m Destroy the Context Destroy the Context @SpaceKidette
@John_Hanna I am hoping that is a rebuttal of the Tea Party Terrorism that has infected the country and governance of the US. ]
poroti,
Don’t forget the Silicon Valley Tech Head votes for Obama! 🙂
BB
Mr Hewson has about zero regard for Mr Abbott. Not sure about Ms Chicarovski.
They may well have been talking about Mr Abbott.
They’ve lost twice now. How many more times until the message sinks in?
And now Hillary for 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ms Gillard’s man wins POTUS.
It’s an omen.
[Interesting watching the ABC24 people talking like this outcome was the one they predicted. Now my memory may be failing me but weren’t they calling that it was even stevens, too close to call and Romney could pull it off?]
Of course. Their job is to keep us watching, not to tell us the facts. So they create drama and tension where this is none, then pretend they were right all along.
The real mystery is why we keep watching when we know what a fraud it is.
I can’t see how Silver can exactly hit his predicted 313-225, but I don’t know in which states the discrepancies are.
Here comes Barry O!!
I am so high on schadenfreude right now. Freerepublic.com is my drug of choice to see all the fear and loathing from the Tea Party nutters. Check it out if you want a deeply satisfying dose.
what is a ‘golf clap’?
Dario @ 1006
He has a pretty good chance .With 98 % counted Mitt needs to win 85 % of the remaining vote. But the end of the count will likely mean “Let the lawyer fest begin”
No need to discuss medical mj. today we are on a natural high
i think nate silver got it 100% right in the end. he had florida move into the blue column over the last couple of days
Finns
Michele Obama for 2016!!!
[I can’t see how Silver can exactly hit his predicted 313-225, but I don’t know in which states the discrepancies are.]
That’s Look at his ‘State-by-state probabilities’ map further down the right margin. Mirrors the results exactly (so far).
C@tmomma
[poroti,
Don’t forget the Silicon Valley Tech Head votes for Obama! 🙂 ]
I was including them in the “hippie” counties which have lots more votes to count 🙂
Marco Rubio and Chris Christie firming already for 2016..
Christie will need to slim down though.
[It was pretty wooden but he said all the right things. He looked pretty crushed.]
Especially beaten by a Black Man
Blimey, every Month 50,000 Hispanics turn 18. The Tea Party lost many of the votes they already had in this demographic.
Further and continuing bleeding won’t help too much either as will the alienating of Afro American voters.
[Michele Obama for 2016!!!]
Diog, no nepotism or dynasty. not North Korea
A golf clap PTMD is a polite, desultory clap…
The clap you give when you don’t really feel like clapping.
Boerwar
[poroti
Alaska and Hawaii… poor things.]
Sandgropers know just how they feel !!
[what is a ‘golf clap’?]
That’s what you get when you put your putter into too many holes!
Would love to see the Boss come out and blast Born to Run.
triton
On Nate Silver’s site the first prediction is the average result of all of his simulations.
If you scroll down further the distribution of possible outcomes is more enlightening. He had 332-206 as his most likely pick with a 20% chance of occuring, 303-235 at 16% and 347-191 (Obama wins Florida and North Carolina too?) at 13%.
The Finnigans,
[ It was pretty wooden but he said all the right things. He looked pretty crushed. ]
Looks like the Prophet back at the Temple in Salt Lake City was wRONg again! 😉
Romney spent too much time dealing with the profit.
Romney lost it with women and minorities. Menzies House must be shaken to its foundation
golf clap
A collision of two small German cars
I thought Romney was very gracious in very difficult circumstances.
All credit to him for that but so glad he didn’t win!
4 more years! You ripper
“@latikambourke: RT @jpaceDC: Obama motorcade rolling through Chicago on its way to the president’s victory speech.”
Finns
[Diog, no nepotism or dynasty. not North Korea]
Yeah, but Hillary would be okay.
You’ll observe that Nate Silver’s electoral college projection goes to one decimal place, which is to say that it’s not concerned with “predicting” a real world outcome.
Henry
[Would love to see the Boss come out and blast Born to Run]
Followed by Born in the USA chorus for all the Tea Party + Repug birthers.
Diogenes@1024
What a tantalising thought!
“@justinbarbour: RT @marcambinder: NBC News notes that Rep. Allen West (R) is in deep trouble in his house race.”
Another Tea Party member
Pretty savvy dems organisers with that made for TV podium backdrop
Lest we forget that the RealClearPolitics poll average “called it” correctly as well.
William – why could’nt whole of Oz forget different time zones for federal elections? Would make system fairer for casting of votes, ie, no State has advantage of knowing how an another voted
[You’ll observe that Nate Silver’s electoral college projection goes to one decimal place, which is to say that it’s not concerned with “predicting” a real world outcome.]
Yes, it’s an average of probable EV outcomes, not an exact EV prediction which is further down the margin.