Presidential election minus one day

My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:

I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,468 comments on “Presidential election minus one day”

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  2. [William – why could’nt whole of Oz forget different time zones for federal elections? Would make system fairer for casting of votes, ie, no State has advantage of knowing how an another voted]

    Probably unlikely until somebody can prove its affected an election result I guess

  4. The biggest losers of this POTUS election – Murdoch, Trump, Foxnews, Old Media, negative politics and those who bully women & minorities

  5. scorpio@1036



    Romney spent too much time dealing with the profit.

    Nope. Telling the truth {ahem…being caught telling the truth} that he wasn’t interested in 47% of the population and that it wasn’t his job to look after them is what *did it*.

    What made it all that much better is that a relative of Jimmy Carter found that clip on the web.

  6. Excellent result here. After an early lead Richard ”
    if a woman becomes pregnant after being raped it was “something that God intended to happen” Mourdock has lost his Senate bid.

  7. Thanks, mimhoff. If Florida goes Silver’s way it will be a triumph for him, and I look forward to seeing how he’s treated next time. The doubters and naysayers have been put in their box.

  8. Interesting article on some State level proposals in Florida that got defeated.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/07/3085417/most-florida-amendments-rejected.html
    [ELECTION 2012  |  CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
    Most Florida amendments rejected

    In a sweeping rejection of the GOP-led Legislature’s overload of the ballot, eight of the 11 lengthy constitutional amendments failed.

    BY BRITTANY ALANA DAVIS AND TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA
    HERALD/TIMES TALLAHASSEE BUREAU
    The Florida Legislature loaded up this year’s historically long ballot with 11 lengthy and confusing constitutional amendments — only to see voters reject almost all of them.

    Eight of the amendments — including a massive property tax overhaul, abortion restrictions and a “religious freedom” proposal — failed to get the requisite 60 percent vote.

    The outcome is a sweeping rejection of the Republican-led Legislature’s push to pile the ballot with long, complicated amendments, clogging precincts and causing voters to wait for hours in some cases. It was the worst outcome for constitutional amendments since 1978, when all nine of the state’s proposed amendments failed.]
    check out the article for more details on some of the scary proposals that got knocked down

  10. “@PaulMecurio: Now that Mitt Romney lost the election he can finally go back to modeling leisure suits in whatever department store window he escaped from”

  12. “@latikambourke: *nods* RT @Nigello: OK, all eyes on #China now for its big political show – the 18th National Communist Party Congress. (中共十八大)”

  14. The Finnigans@1037


    Romney lost it with women and minorities. Menzies House must be shaken to its foundation

    Its a huge call to say the tories will learn anything from it.

    To do so they have to basically backflip on 3 years of abbott nonsense.

    I doubt it. Better for Labor if the tories keep doing the same stuff.

  16. Tom Switzner saying Repubs in trouble due to older white vote. they need to reach out to minorities. Even mentioned gay marriage on the agenda.I wonder what advice Abbott will get from him and Sheridan now

  18. sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    even if Romney wins Ohio, Virginia and Florida he only gets 260 – so why is he refusing to concede?

    Doing a Tony Abbott on us?

    Maybe more like Billy Snedden:
    “We didn’t lose the election. We just didn’t win.”

  19. Greg Sheridan and Tom Switzer on Sky both unhappy with the result. At least Tom Switzer made some good observations. Go suck eggs I say!!

  23. [Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink
    The biggest losers of this POTUS election – Murdoch, Trump, Foxnews, Old Media, negative politics and those who bully women & minorities]
    ]

    o finns let it be let it be here to,

  31. The Finnigans@1037


    Romney lost it with women and minorities. Menzies House must be shaken to its foundation

    I wonder if this augurs for the RW nutters in Australia. People may be happy to read the RW headlines in the shop windows or see them on the 6 o’clock news or hear the screeching of the shock-jocks. But, seriously what sane person would walk into a voting booth and vote for a RW nutter who is going to send society back to the 40’s and 50’s a time when women couldn’t decide what happened to their own bodies, where they couldn’t protect themselves from unwanted pregnancies, a time when equality didn’t exist, a time when people didn’t have the right to love and bed who ever they wanted and who wanted them.

    Do people seriously think that people would vote to have rights that have taken years and blood to get just simply be taken away on the whim of some RW religious predominantly male, white, heterosexual fruitcake political party.

    I think that people may say they will to a pollster but in the privacy of the voting booth their rights and their hopes for their children and the country might be a little different.

    I think that more people thought about what they were voting for in US than mordock, trump and all the other bigots and misogynists expected. And, when they saw all their rights and gains and hopes dangling over the religious precipice they thought twice and decided to give POTUS more time to turn the country around.

  32. Romney, Akin, Mourdoch and Bachmann all losing in the same day.

    Time to break out the champagne. And I’ll make it a pink one as the socialists won. 😀

  33. Obama has Florida wrapped up. Most of the remaining 2% is in Miami-Dade county where 10 % of the vote has yet to be counted , about 800,000. Obama has so far won 62.1 % of the vote there.

  34. […But, seriously what sane person would walk into a voting booth and vote for a RW nutter who is going to send society back to the 40′s and 50′s…]

    A Queenslander.

  35. Son of foro@1067


    Now that Mitt can’t serve his country as President perhaps he can serve it by paying tax.

    Also in view of the fact that he ran away from the US to avoid the Vietnam military draft – he needs to have his adult offspring of military age go make up for the combat duty he chicken out of..

    A couple of terms each in Afghanistan would be a good start.

  37. zoidlord
    [OH NO ABC24′s just said Obama needs low debt and low carbon (something that Australia is already doing!) ]

    It would be incredible if Obama moved to put a price on carbon as his big reform this term (the economy would have to improve first, though). How that would help Gillard. Obama can be bolder this term because he doesn’t have to worry about re-election.

  38. “@ezraklein: I kinda can’t get over the fact that this country is finally going to have a (near)universal health-care system.”

    Plus Supreme Court Picks will not overturn Roe vs wade

  41. Henry,

    [ I don’t get it. Romney had Kid Rock??? ]

    I bet he regrets getting Meatloaf to help out. Clint & the empty chair even more so.

    Obama on now.

  43. [.But, seriously what sane person would walk into a voting booth and vote for a RW nutter who is going to send society back to the 40′s and 50′s.]
    Residents of the Sutherland Shire, home of Scott Morrison.

  50. On CNN breaking news:

    [Am told @MittRomney conceded in short, polite call to @BarackObama. Speech is gracious after v close election. #cnnelections ” – @JohnKingCNN]

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