Seat of the week: Melbourne

After powering to an historic victory in the electorate of Melbourne at the 2010 election, Greens MP Adam Bandt is likely to find the going a lot tougher next time around.

The electorate of Melbourne produced a watershed result at the 2010 election, with Labor suffering defeat at the hands of the Greens in a seat it had held without interruption since 1904. It thus became the first federal lower house seat to be won by the Greens at a general election, and the second overall after a by-election victory in the New South Wales seat of Cunningham in 2002. Currently the electorate extends from the central business district westwards to the Maribyrnong River, northwards to Carlton North and eastwards to Richmond. The redistribution has transferred around 6000 voters in Clifton Hill and Alphington to Batman, and another 6000 at Fitzroy North to Wills.

Contributing to the Greens’ strength are the second youngest age profile of any electorate (the first being the strongly indigenous Northern Territory seat of Lingiari), substantial student populations associated with the University of Melbourne and RMIT University campuses, and the nation’s highest “no religion” response in the 2011 census. Other demographic features include substantial Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean populations. The Greens are strongest in the inner-city bohemia of Carlton, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Richmond, excluding some local-level concentrations of migrant populations which remain strong for Labor. They are weakest in and around the central business district itself and at Ascot Vale in the seat’s outer north-east, which are respectively strong for Liberal and Labor.

Melbourne was held for Labor from 1993 to 2010 by Lindsay Tanner, who in turn succeeded Hawke-Keating government Immigration Minister Gerry Hand. Their highest profile antecedent in the seat was Arthur Calwell, member from 1940 until 1972. A leading light of the Left faction, Tanner became Finance Minister when the Rudd government was elected, and emerged as part of a four-member “kitchen cabinet” which dominated the government’s decision-making. On the day that Kevin Rudd was deposed as Labor leader, Tanner dropped a second bombshell in parliament when he announced he would not contest the election, which he insisted was unrelated to events earlier in the day. He has since emerged as a public critic of the leadership change and the political process more broadly.

Tanner’s exit at the subsequent election brought into play a seat where the Greens had rapidly grown as a threat since the 2001 election, when their vote lifted 9.6% to 15.8% on the back of concern over asylum seeker policy. It rose again to 19.0% at the 2004 election, when the party harvested much of a collapsing Democrats vote. A further breakthrough was achieved in 2007 when their candidate, Adam Bandt, overtook the Liberal candidate to reach the final preference count. On that occasion the primary vote for Labor’s Lindsay Tanner was 49.5%, enough to ensure him a 4.7% margin after preferences. With Tanner’s retirement at the 2010 election, the Labor vote fell 11.4% while the Greens were up 13.4%, which panned out to a comfortable 6.0% win for the Greens after preferences.

Adam Bandt came to parliament with an instant national profile by virtue of his position on the cross-bench of a hung parliament, which events since have only enhanced. However, he has twice received portents from the sphere of state politics that he will face a tougher environment at the next election than the last. The first was in the state election campaign of November 2010, when the Greens’ high hopes for breakthroughs in the electorate’s corresponding state seats were dashed by a Liberal Party decision to put Labor ahead of the Greens on its how-to-vote cards. This decision was seen by some as a catalyst for the Coalition’s election victory, and there seems a high probability it will be repeated federally. The effect at the state election was to cut flows of Liberal preferences to the Greens from around three-quarters to around a third, which would have cut Bandt’s two-party vote by over 9%. The second was the Greens’ failure to win the by-election for the state seat of Melbourne, despite an expectation that they would profit from annoyance at the mid-term departure of the outgoing Labor member Bronwyn Pike.

Labor has again preselected its unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Cath Bowtell, a former ACTU industrial officer, current state party president and member of the Socialist Left. Bowtell won the preselection against what proved to be token opposition from Harvey Stern, the state president of Labor for Refugees.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,077 comments on “Seat of the week: Melbourne”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  2. Seems a little joyless here tonight…so here is something that always makes me smile….

    Someday my prince

    Even if you are not into jazz there is something about the interaction of these musicians that seems quite special.

    The only downside is it finishes just as Hank Jones is getting started.

  3. [651
    Bushfire Bill

    Too late for another round with Kezza. Sorry I butted in.]

    Discretion, dear boy, discretion is often the better part…. )

  6. Scorpio
    Don’t know what is going on for you and family. May take some scroll back to learn.

    Sounds rather alarming.

    My thoughts and good wishes to you and yours.

  10. briefly,

    I’ve had a bit of a time of it lately that’s for sure. The biggest problem I’ve got lately is just getting a proper diagnosis of my issues.

    Living away from capital cities is a pain sometimes. Five years ago I had to wait 10 months to get an appointment with a neurologist in Brisbane. the second took 8 months.

    At the moment, I am trying to get an appointment with one that visits here once a Year. I expect for only a couple of days.

    In the meantime, you sit back and wonder what in the hell is causing you all the grief and if you will get to see a Specialist in time before it becomes something that they tell you “now if you could have just seen me a few months earlier….”

    You know what I mean. People like me sit here helpless and powerless and often needlessly die well before our time because we live in remote areas and there’s not much we can do about it.

  11. crikey whitey,

    I’m fine. Just worn out. It’s a bugger getting old in the body when your mind still thinks you are 18 years old. 😉

    I hate looking in the mirror. I got no bloody idea who that old bastard I see there is.

  12. kezza2,

    [ Sorry I gave you all a shitty night.

    Now you can have bags of fun without me. ]

    We could have much more fun “with” you if only you get rid of that bloody chip on your shoulder! 😉

  14. scorpio, medical issues are a genuine bugger. I can see your predicament. Is it not possible to get a referral to someone in a bigger centre? It must be very frustrating and discouraging.

  16. kezza – it’s obvious you came here tonight looking to spark some kind of reaction from your unnecessarily aggressive posts. I suppose you got it so congrats I guess.

  17. [666
    absolutetwaddle

    kezza – it’s obvious you came here tonight looking to spark some kind of reaction from your unnecessarily aggressive posts. I suppose you got it so congrats I guess.]

    aka aggravated posting with intent….a misdemeanour with no consequences…

  18. but actually, something rewarding came from this….several of us declared ourselves on an important issue, and the social fabric was strengthened by the exchanges…I don’t think we need sweetness and light all the time. It is amazing how aroused we can become by text alone…..

  19. Eh, I’ve done my fair share of trolling but it tends to be with people who I DISAGREE with at least. Internet 101.

  20. [669
    absolutetwaddle

    Eh, I’ve done my fair share of trolling but it tends to be with people who I DISAGREE with at least. Internet 101.]

    🙂

    If you want an argument, it is usually wise to find someone who holds opposing views. Unless, of course, you just enjoy expressing alarm and righteous indignation for the sheer pleasure of it. At least kezza2 is not often boring…and she has made some very telling points here…I am the first to concede that she has been on the money regarding sexism.

  21. [And if you think a Romney presidency wouldn’t affect Australian women, then you don’t know Australian women as much as you think you do.]

    Australian women are subject to US law?

  24. lyne lady i agree

    it really showing th desperation of the media, if this is all they got

    Why dont they look into Abbott, there will be alot more juicer stories

  25. [Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, November 3, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    The State is providing the termination so of course it has a say in how that is provided.

    At the moment, the state largely leaves it us to the doctor and patient to decide and it seems to work very well.]

    This is as it should be.

    Where this view falls down is when it comes to genital mutilation, we as a society seem to accept the Jewish form but reject forms undertaken by other middle east cultures.

    I withdraw in a puff of logical inconsistency. Mind you if a women is going to be chopped up, it would be far better if was done by a surgeon.

  28. [Too many reporters to little news.]

    Jessica Wright is listed as the ‘Breaking news reporter.’

    What a joke. All I can say is that the Ship Of State must be in extremely good hands when all that Wright can come up with is that twaddle. Sounds like she had a column inch or two to fill and had nothing serious to contribute.

  29. “@Colvinius: For those who’ve asked/want to see the Andrew Olle Media Lecture on TV, it’s on ABC News 24 at 1 today, and ABC1 at 11.15 tonight.”

  30. “@Colvinius: For those who’ve asked/want to see the Andrew Olle Media Lecture on TV, it’s on ABC News 24 at 1 today, and ABC1 at 11.15 tonight.”

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I had a bit of a “lay day” yesterday.

    Lyne Lady – your link to the story about the Liberal incubator (St Johns) was most disturbing. It does show, however, how certain people have the attitude that they do.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/culture-of-anarchy-at-a-college-in-crisis-20121103-28qvh.html

    Jessica Wright – what a wonderful, deep thinking investigative reporter! How many gift declarations previously made have been of genuine concern? None, I would venture to say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-fails-to-declare-gifts-received-since-june-20121103-28qvg.html
    Mike Carlton not too impressed with these two Royals.
    [This is apparently beyond us here. The presence of Charles and Camilla Mountbatten-Windsor at Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup will produce another pathetic round of royal grovelling, you watch. I have nothing against them in person, not at all, but the idea of them becoming our king and queen is ridiculous. Yet it will happen the moment the present monarch gasps her last.}
    Alan Moir trotted Popeye out again this weekend.

    And a classic from David Pope.

  36. Nate Silver raises the bar on political polling analysis, looking at why he rates Obama at only 82% certainty and not 100% based on the avalanche of polls.

    [There are essentially three reasons that a poll might provide an inaccurate forecast of an upcoming election.

    The first is statistical sampling error: statistical error that comes from interviewing only a random sample of the population, rather than everyone. This is the type of error that is represented by the margin of error reported alongside a poll and it is reasonably easy to measure.

    …..

    (two) is that a poll is a snapshot in time — even if you’re sampling the voters accurately, their opinions could change again before Election Day.

    …..

    the potential that the polls might simply have been wrong all along because of statistical bias.]

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

  37. And from the Land of the Free –

    This says it all about the Repugs (think about Aussie conservatives, too).
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/11/03/video-gop-war-on-reality-the-non-partisan-report-that-republicans-dont-want-you-to-see/
    Bill Maher’s “New Rules”. A good review of trhge run up to the election.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/11/03/video-real-time-bill-maher-recaps-the-highs-the-lows-and-the-empty-chairs-of-the-election/
    They are rank amateurs in the US when it comes to the conduct of elections.
    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/florida-glitch-wipes-out-1000-early-v
    FoxNews at work!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/fox-friends-delay-nbc-hurricane-telethon-bec

  42. “@AusAmbUSA: Joining @vanOnselenP and Paul Kelly on #AustralianAgenda soon (Sunday morning AEST) to discuss the #US Presidential election. KB”

  43. Seems giving advice to Abbott on how to lift his game is the new black. FanGirl Grattan, and now #newscorpse via Samantha Maiden

    [Tony Abbott celebrates his 55th birthday today. Getting to the Lodge for his 56th birthday is probably top of the Liberal leader’s wish list. But to get there, some of his mates reckon the best present for him would be to crawl back under the covers and go back to sleep.

    There’s a serious school of thought within the Liberal Party that Abbott is just plain tired. That he’s making mistakes. He’s lost weight, which tends to make him look tired anyway.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-tony-needs-to-get-off-his-bike-and-take-a-nap/story-e6frezz0-1226509760340

  45. Good Morning Red Bludgie Smuggler Wearers! 🙂

    Isn’t the important question wrt the ‘undeclared gifts’, whether the PM has pocketed them or not? Otherwise it is probably just an oversight on the part of PMO that deals with these things. You know, I don’t think it is the PM herself that fills in the forms to register the gifts. She’s got a more important desk job to do. 🙂

    ps I’m not even going to give Jessica Wright a click for that effort, so if the article contains any assertions more substantial than what has been conveyed here, let me know.

    Btw, note to kezza2. As I was too tired to get involved in the sturm und drang abortion debate last night, I’ll put this up this morning(but am hoping I don’t set the wheels in motion all over again). So, I don’t know if I have mentioned this before, and thank you to kezza2 for putting up the interview with Mrs Wainer because it confirmed the fact to me, but my mother-in-law and father-in-law were friends with Dr & Mrs Wainer when they lived in Queensland.

    My OH told me stories about his mother and how she would go with Dr Wainer to get the women, rich and poor, who needed illegal abortions in his car, and then she would wait while they had their procedure and stay with them until they were OK, or arrange to get them to hospital if something went wrong. Also if they needed to get to a Doctor as a result of an infection which blew up later.

    As my father-in-law was a Head of Parks and Gardens, they moved out of Queensland(it was way too oppressive in the 50s and 60s), and back to NSW so he could take up a position here.

    Still, she kept up her work with Dr Wainer and the women who needed her help in Sydney, and she was an early campaigner against Thalidomide. One story my OH told was of a woman who was so overcome with Morning Sickness that she thought she had no choice but to take it. My mother-in-law literally ripped the tablets out of her hand and then sat with her until the nausea subsided. When the full horror of Thalidomide became spectacularly known, that woman was especially grateful. She gave birth to a child without any problems.

    Also, my mother-in-law helped devise the first ‘Do-It-Yourself Divorce Kit’ for women, due to the expense and complexity of these matters back in the 60s, as it was putting a brake on women being able to get out of abusive marriages.

    Not only that but she was the first female newspaper story illustrator that the Sydney Morning Herald had ever employed.

    What a gal! 🙂

    So, if the Pro-Lifers ever want a fight, especially if Abbott gets his feet under the Prime Ministerial desk, then they’ll get one from me while there is still breath in my body! As there is nothing more horrifying to look at than a forensic photo of a woman who has bled to death after a botched abortion, too ashamed to get help.

    Sorry, I hope I haven’t brought anyone down but I thought I wouldn’t have the opportunity to tell the story of a remarkable and courageous woman again. 🙂

  47. Isnt amazing that all the #MSMhacks & #FanBois & #FanGals are now worrying about @TonyAbbottMHR not looking like PM material #auspol

  49. Memo to #MSMhacks – @TonyAbbottMHR doesnt need rest, botox, holiday, advice. Margie blah blah blah, he needs a brain transplant #auspol

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