Seat of the week: Melbourne

After powering to an historic victory in the electorate of Melbourne at the 2010 election, Greens MP Adam Bandt is likely to find the going a lot tougher next time around.

The electorate of Melbourne produced a watershed result at the 2010 election, with Labor suffering defeat at the hands of the Greens in a seat it had held without interruption since 1904. It thus became the first federal lower house seat to be won by the Greens at a general election, and the second overall after a by-election victory in the New South Wales seat of Cunningham in 2002. Currently the electorate extends from the central business district westwards to the Maribyrnong River, northwards to Carlton North and eastwards to Richmond. The redistribution has transferred around 6000 voters in Clifton Hill and Alphington to Batman, and another 6000 at Fitzroy North to Wills.

Contributing to the Greens’ strength are the second youngest age profile of any electorate (the first being the strongly indigenous Northern Territory seat of Lingiari), substantial student populations associated with the University of Melbourne and RMIT University campuses, and the nation’s highest “no religion” response in the 2011 census. Other demographic features include substantial Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean populations. The Greens are strongest in the inner-city bohemia of Carlton, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Richmond, excluding some local-level concentrations of migrant populations which remain strong for Labor. They are weakest in and around the central business district itself and at Ascot Vale in the seat’s outer north-east, which are respectively strong for Liberal and Labor.

Melbourne was held for Labor from 1993 to 2010 by Lindsay Tanner, who in turn succeeded Hawke-Keating government Immigration Minister Gerry Hand. Their highest profile antecedent in the seat was Arthur Calwell, member from 1940 until 1972. A leading light of the Left faction, Tanner became Finance Minister when the Rudd government was elected, and emerged as part of a four-member “kitchen cabinet” which dominated the government’s decision-making. On the day that Kevin Rudd was deposed as Labor leader, Tanner dropped a second bombshell in parliament when he announced he would not contest the election, which he insisted was unrelated to events earlier in the day. He has since emerged as a public critic of the leadership change and the political process more broadly.

Tanner’s exit at the subsequent election brought into play a seat where the Greens had rapidly grown as a threat since the 2001 election, when their vote lifted 9.6% to 15.8% on the back of concern over asylum seeker policy. It rose again to 19.0% at the 2004 election, when the party harvested much of a collapsing Democrats vote. A further breakthrough was achieved in 2007 when their candidate, Adam Bandt, overtook the Liberal candidate to reach the final preference count. On that occasion the primary vote for Labor’s Lindsay Tanner was 49.5%, enough to ensure him a 4.7% margin after preferences. With Tanner’s retirement at the 2010 election, the Labor vote fell 11.4% while the Greens were up 13.4%, which panned out to a comfortable 6.0% win for the Greens after preferences.

Adam Bandt came to parliament with an instant national profile by virtue of his position on the cross-bench of a hung parliament, which events since have only enhanced. However, he has twice received portents from the sphere of state politics that he will face a tougher environment at the next election than the last. The first was in the state election campaign of November 2010, when the Greens’ high hopes for breakthroughs in the electorate’s corresponding state seats were dashed by a Liberal Party decision to put Labor ahead of the Greens on its how-to-vote cards. This decision was seen by some as a catalyst for the Coalition’s election victory, and there seems a high probability it will be repeated federally. The effect at the state election was to cut flows of Liberal preferences to the Greens from around three-quarters to around a third, which would have cut Bandt’s two-party vote by over 9%. The second was the Greens’ failure to win the by-election for the state seat of Melbourne, despite an expectation that they would profit from annoyance at the mid-term departure of the outgoing Labor member Bronwyn Pike.

Labor has again preselected its unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Cath Bowtell, a former ACTU industrial officer, current state party president and member of the Socialist Left. Bowtell won the preselection against what proved to be token opposition from Harvey Stern, the state president of Labor for Refugees.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,077 comments on “Seat of the week: Melbourne”

Comments Page 15 of 22
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  1. The old contemptibles in the MSM political commentariat have moved on – from the Prime Minister’s ear lobes to Mr Abbott’s gait.

  2. And Michelle Grattan has the nerve to call herself a “Political Reporter” – more like a tired cheerleader – TA needs substance not style (a step too far….indeed).

  3. I think I’ll have a heart attack the day I read an article by a ‘Senior’ MSM political journo which lays out in chapter and verse all the reasons why Tony Abbott would not be a suitable person to be Prime Minister of this great nation.

  4. oz poll i have a new lap top
    lenovo,i can enlarge the print, mentioned to my son in law iwas was having trouble with the print, went to my computer and there was a are to adjust print, on every thing i am typing this at 200 percent thought of you

  5. I wonder what’s on Tones’ gift list:

    – a pair of boxing gloves;
    – two free botox sessions;
    – ‘Grecian Formula’; and
    – an Xtra large mouthguard.

    ???

  6. lyne lady
    [
    TA an ‘old boy’ – explains everything… Pell to be called in?????????????
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/culture-of-anarchy-at-a-college-in-crisis-20121103-28qvh.html%5D
    There was a large article which appeared shortly after the incident and a couple of points stuck out. Especially in light of Tones being an OB and his behaviour since. A female resident interviewed said she and other women called the college “the 1970’s” due to the amount of sexism and homophobia.She wondered how bad it must have been in the actual 1970’s when TA was there and men only. There was a guy trying to change the culture but he was the subject of an ongoing vile campaign of abuse. He noted that one of his biggest obstacles to change were Old Boys supporting their kid’s behaviour because it was what they did in “their day”.

  7. [I wonder what’s on Tones’ gift list:

    – a pair of boxing gloves;
    – two free botox sessions;
    – ‘Grecian Formula’; and
    – an Xtra large mouthguard]

    It’s just hit me after sitting in the back of my head for ages. I knew Tony reminded me of someone. He’s a Thunderbird!

    Seriously, anyone getting makeovers at his age is seriously pathetic. And his cosmetics are seriously obvious.

  8. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/party-troops-muster-for-march-battle-20121103-28r3n.html
    [Party troops muster for March battle
    November 4, 2012

    AUSTRALIA’S political parties are in the advance stages of preparations for next year’s federal election campaign, with a senior Labor strategist saying a March election is ”a distinct possibility”.

    With the ALP, the Liberals and the Greens all recording significant and surprising boosts to membership, Labor has gone to its staffers asking for money as it tries to recover from the dire financial status brought on at the last election.

    …………

    Speculation mounted last week that the Labor Party was considering the option of an early poll, with the government beginning to focus on its ”big ticket” items: the national disability insurance scheme, education reforms and the Asian white paper.

    One theory – mainly pushed by the Coalition – was that Ms Gillard could seek a March election as a distraction from the difficulty of delivering the 2013 surplus in a May budget. A Labor strategist said this was ”a distinct possibility”.]
    It won’t be March. I should put money on it.

  9. CTar1

    CTar1

    [RO

    I can imaging Peta chanting ‘Thunderbirds are GO’ as they make their way to QT.
    😆 ]
    Just before Lady Peta drives off in her pink limo )

  10. i would say if some one said distinct po
    ssiblity
    its like the expression we say when no answer is
    really given when talking to children one says
    ‘well you never know’. lol

  11. One theory – mainly pushed by the Coalition

    That’s all you need to know.

    A Labor strategist said this was ”a distinct possibility”.

    … and someone found one anonymous ALP person to not rule it out.

    Journalism!

  12. notice how old media sags surprising boost
    re polls

    no surprise on this blogg
    why are we ahead of the game is it that we spend time
    in grass rotes land and the press stay in doors

  13. notice how old media sags surprising boost
    re polls

    no surprise on this blogg
    why are we ahead of the game is it that we spend time
    in grass rotes land and the press stay in doors

  14. [Leroy
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 8:36 am | Permalink
    ….
    It won’t be March. I should put money on it.]

    I’d be a bit carefull.

    If the world economy slides further then there is a risk unemployment will rise in Australia, unless the budget moves into deficit. High unemployment is not a winning strategy. A budget deficit will be a problem. The strategist might conclude an early election is the smaller risk.

  15. Hi everyone, beautiful morning here in Sydney, off to watch my grandson in Nippers, glad I don’t have to get into the sea, it looks cold to me
    C@tmomma your comment on your MIL brought tears to my eyes, what a lady
    If I have time will put a tweet in to young Jess as she follows me

  16. There is talk that an by-election for northern tablelands (Torbay’s seat) could be in may- june

    It would be strange if the federal election is held before then

  17. [A Labor strategist said this was ”a distinct possibility”. ]

    Anybodies ‘strategist’ would say same – confusion to the enemy!

  18. “@stephenspector: FACT: In CO, FL, IA, NC, and NV, 1.3 million non-midterm Dems have voted already, compared with just 840,000 non-midterm Republicans.”

  19. Jackol@720


    One theory – mainly pushed by the Coalition


    That’s all you need to know.

    A Labor strategist said this was ”a distinct possibility”.


    … and someone found one anonymous ALP person to not rule it out.

    Journalism!

    Or Labor playing with their minds.

    Abbotts COS might be absent on maturity leave if an election is held in the first half of 2013.

    I doubt very much that it will though.

  20. frednk
    WhileI do not agree with any genital mutilationof childre, for religious or any mom-medical reason, there is a big difference in practice and intent between circumcision and FMG.

    The bottom line is that circumcision is not designed with the express purpose of destroying a person’s ability to experience sexual pleasure, and to make intercourse a painful procedure. That is the prime purpose of FMG.

    FMG is a form of social control, which ensures only men enjoy sex.

  21. frednk – Its, up to the PM alone in the end, and I doubt she’d do it regardless of what any “senior fugure” told her. It would be so transparently motivated by fear, create so much Ill will with the public (now that most actually don’t want an early election) & with the cross benchers (who would all attack her in the campaign), would create its own fear campaign (gee, budget must be even worse than any economist says), any advantage would evaporate.

    The budget may turn better than expected BTW, as The Kouk ointed out, on all the big band growth predictions, surplus would be bigger than expected.

  22. should be…

    “The budget may turn better than expected BTW, as The Kouk pointed out, on all the big banks growth predictions, the surplus would be bigger than expected.”

  23. William

    is polling CALLED telemarketing please
    just noticed a story about opting out of unwanted
    marketing telemarketing ect.

    we did this years ago

  24. [I think I’ll have a heart attack the day I read an article by a ‘Senior’ MSM political journo which lays out in chapter and verse all the reasons why Tony Abbott would not be a suitable person to be Prime Minister of this great nation.]

    Only after he has been removed as leader will the MSM explain why he WASN’T a suitable person to be PM. They say it like they are the experts and always knew it.

  25. A discussion on polling which could be relavent here in Oz. From one of the links on the page at least one pollster polls both mobile and land lines.

    [Could Presidential Polls Be Wrong About Obama’s Battleground Edge ?

    The Pollster model reports very high confidence that Obama’s leads in Ohio and Iowa are real (97 and 96 percent, respectively) but those statistics have a critical limitation: They assume the polls are just a snapshot in time and that the average of all pollster house effects is zero…….

    In a separate article, Stanford political scientist Simon Jackman explains in detail how he has used past polling errors…..]
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/presidential-polls_n_2056377.html

  26. Leroy

    If the world doesn’t turn to mush, I agree with your assessment. Unfortunately Australia can’t fix the world economy.

  27. It has been reported in the OM the labor party will not hold a selection process for the seat of Dobell until next March.

    Perhaps Jess Wright missed that ?

    I cannot blame her though for not reading the rubbish printed anyway.

  28. How can you do anything but laugh at Grattan for her ridiculous piece today? I’d sad really. The poor dear is pinin’ for her man before he became an ex-parrot.

  29. Frednk – it doesn’t alter the fact that there are many very big reasons why going early is bad for the ALP.

    The relatively mundane impact of worsening economic conditions is a much lesser risk, and any strategist that doesn’t see that should be laughed out of the ALP for the good of the party.

    Further, if the world economy turns to serious mush, as opposed to just further malaise, this changes the political dynamic again – who do you trust to get Australia through financial crises? Incumbency and track record would be major factors in the ALP’s favour – failing to deliver a budget surplus in those circumstances would be understandable, forgiveable and desirable to the bulk of the Australian population at that time.

    There is no case for a March election beyond the LNP and its boosters trying to damage the ALP.

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