James J reports Newspoll is back to 50-50 after inflating to 54-46 to the Coalition in the last poll three weeks ago. The primary votes are 36% for Labor (up three), 41% for the Coalition (down four) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Gillard’s lead as prime minister is up slightly, from 43-33 to 45-34, but her personal ratings are rather less good than in Nielsen: approval 35% (down one) and disapproval 51% (up one). Tony Abbott has again gone backwards, his approval down three to 30% and disapproval up three to 58%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1176 with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Essential Research puts a dampener on things for Labor by finding the Coalition up a point on two-party preferred to now lead 54-46. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (9%). Also featured: 45% expect the UN Security Council seat to be of benefit to Australia against 36% of little or no benefit; 28% support the export of uranium to India against 40% opposed; 39% support nuclear power for electricity generation (up four since the wake of Fukushima) against 41% opposed (down 12); 35% rate the economy in good shape against 29% poor; 37% approve of spending cuts to keep the budget in surplus against 43% disapproval.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll also brings us a finding that only 26% expect the government to succeed in bringing the budget into surplus, against 59% who think it will not succeed (38-47 against among Labor voters, 14-78 amongst Coalition). On the question of how high a priority it should be, 35% said high, 35% said low and 21% said “not a priority”. Thirty-nine per cent agreed that Tony Abbott has been sexist towards Julia Gillard against 45% who disagreed. This breaks down, not too surprisingly, to 35-48 among men against 43-41 among women, and 66-21 among Labor supporters against 13-76 among Coalition supporters. Less expected is the concentration of support for the proposition among the 35-49 age cohort: 44-39 compared with 33-45 with younger and 40-49 with older voters. Those who agreed were further asked about the appropriateness of Gillard’s response, the upshot of which is that 2% of the overall sample felt she underreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 30% thought she got the reaction to Abbott’s sexism about right, 6% thought she overreacted to Abbott’s sexism, 45% thought there was no sexism to react to, and 16% were undecided, indifferent or ignorant of the matter.
Federal preselection news:
• The South Australian ALP has made a poorly received decision to maintain the order at the top of its Senate ticket from 2007, with parliamentary secretary and Right powerbroker Don Farrell having seniority over Finance Minister Penny Wong, a member of the minority Left faction. Farrell won the ballot by 112 votes to 83 for Wong. Anthony Albanese, a powerbroker in the NSW Left, described the result as a “joke” and an “act of self-indulgence”, offering that Wong was “obviously our most talented senator from South Australia”. Third on the ticket is Simon Pisoni, an official for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union and the brother of a state Liberal MP, David Pisoni.
• Andrew Crook at Crikey reports that Labor will hold a preselection for Dobell in February or March next year. Craig Thomson is suspended from the party, and is thus likely to be ineligible to nominate. Mentioned as possible contenders are David Mehan, described by Crook as the “popular local LUCRF super fund manager”, who was the party’s unsuccessful candidate in 2004 and challenged Thomson for preselection in 2010, and David Harris, Point Clare Public School principal and former state member for Wyong who lost his seat at last year’s election. Emma McBride, daughter of former The Entrance MP Grant McBride, was previously mentioned, but is now said to be “out of the race”.
• Mat Nott of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports the candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed retiring Paul Neville in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler are believed to include Maryborough school principal Len Fehlhaber, Hervey Bay accountant Geoff Redpath, parole and probation officer Greg McMahon, Australian Safety and Training Alliance managing director Keith Pitt, and two political staffers – Chris McLoughlin, who works for state Bundaberg MP Jack Dempsey, and Cathy Heidrich, a former newspaper proprietor who works for Paul Neville and is “widely expected to receive at least his unofficial backing”. Michael McKenna of The Australian also mentioned former Isis mayor Bill Trevor.
• Queensland’s Liberal National Party will hold a preselection on November 24 to choose its Senate ticket, with incumbent Ian McDonald set to retain top spot and two vacancies created by the retirements of Ron Boswell and Sue Boyce. Most prominent among the 16 mooted nominees is James McGrath, the party’s campaign director for the state election this year who unsuccessfully ran against Mal Brough for the Fisher preselection after appearing to have the numbers sewn up in neighbouring Fairfax. Also mentioned are LNP vice-president Gary Spence, Toowoomba doctor and university lecturer David Van Gend, Senator Barnaby Joyce’s chief of staff Matthew Canavan, former Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry president David Goodwin, barrister Amanda Stoker and animal nutritionist Theresa Craig.
• A legal action that was delaying federal Liberal preselections in New South Wales has been resolved, with the state executive reluctantly agreeing to a allow a motion for rank-and-file preselections and a less interventionist state executive to be brought before the state council. The challenge in the Supreme Court arose from the David Clarke right faction, which was angered that factional rivals on the state executive, which is controlled by an alliance of moderates and the rival Alex Hawke right, had imposed candidates in the marginal Labor central coast seats of Dobell and Robertson. However, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “any change would require the support of 60 per cent of state council members, which many doubt it would receive”. Among the seats affected by the preselection delay was the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway.
• Former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh has announced he will seek preselection to run as the Greens Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory. The Greens have been hopeful of winning the second ACT Senate seat from Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries at the past few elections, but have consistently fallen short.
If Mr Abbott wants to improve productivity, he should just pick up a phone and…
Oh, wait.
Just polled by EMR.
Are we sure Murphy is not a Labor stooge?
Has he ever written anything remotely non-critical of Abbott and the Opposition?
Mr Abbott could improve Australia’s productivity personally if he himself sat down and did some real work instead of going around pulling stunts (in places where his presence is only likely to disrupt productivity).
Tony should ask Campbell about how to get rid of Senior Public Servants, Campbell now has two Depts without a DG.
Fran
[BW:
Noted: You didn’t respond to the substance of the claim. I assume that’s a backhanded recognition that you find the reasoning robust.]
The last time I responded to the substance of one of your claims I was informed that you were ‘in charge’. Presumably this meant that you could ignore other views at will. I thought at the time it was rather a powerful personal statement of the Greens general propensity to confuse daydreaming with reality – hence mine of 4893.
You should have a little header on all your posts so that we know whether you happen to be in charge for the discussion at hand. That way we will know whether we are dealing with your view of the substance or with your daydreams.
davidwh
“a labor stooge?”
That’s the sort of remark Libs make to denigrate.
Why can’t Murphy just be a Labor supporter? What’s wrong with that?
Boer War @ 4893
Okay that’s the first two lots of 870,000 attended to. What about the third lot (and the fourth and the fifth and…)?
No problems with me lizzie but I thought he was supposed to be an independent commentator? Now if he is an alleged independent but is really Labor then that makes him a stooge.
[ Devil we know’ – The Economist backs Obama
The Economist, the respected weekly current affairs magazine, is backing US President Barack Obama for re-election, although with less enthusiasm than four years ago.
The London-based publication said in its leader that while the United States faced a tougher decision and a more negative campaign than in 2008, Obama’s Republican rival Mitt Romney “does not fit the bill”. ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/devil-we-know–the-economist-backs-obama-20121102-28ns5.html#ixzz2B2rSUUEr
Could someone explain it to me in economics terms, what do politicians/economists mean by ‘increasing productivity’? Is this simply removing obstacles so someone can do their actual work, i.e. less paperwork more real work? I just don’t understand what they talk about when they mention this.
davidwh@4910
That makes you a tory stooge.
@davidwh/4910
Perhaps it just shows that some people really do not like Abbott.
My mother is the same, she hates the man.
davidwh
Are we talking about the legal beagle chris murphy? AFAIK he’s simply someone who tweets a lot and seems to be anti-lib b/c of some legislation atm. I don’t think he’s an alleged anything.
Leone, this one for rumour
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8Pt_ZkGg8I&feature=relmfu)
he may forgive, you may regret but he will never ever forget
context what context just love it
[The Canberra Liberals received 41 more first-preference votes than Labor at the October 20 poll.
“This will be the first time in the Territory’s history that the party which received the most votes from the electorate doesn’t have the opportunity to form government,” Mr Seselja said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-02/rattenbury-decides-act-government/4349928?WT.svl=news0
It would seem that the Liberals had every opportunity to attempt to form government in the ACT as, by all accounts, the Greens spent some time in negotiations with them.
Unfortunately the public animosity between the ACT Liberals and Greens has been considerable over the last four years and in the election campaign. We do not know how much the Liberals offered the Greens but Zed was inevitably caught between the need for compromise and the need to appear publicly not to compromise too much.
It is just possible that some longer-serving Liberal members might find the next four years in opposition to be uncomfortable and seek an alternative career. After all, Labor in government did this in the previous term. Such a turnover is made simpler because there is no need for a by-election with new members appointed through a countback of votes at the last election.
Nah I’m just an old fart Dave. Too old to be anyone’s stooge.
Slav G@4912
Slav – have a look at #4772, #4777, 4799 on page 96
and #4810 on page 97.
Slav G
Like you, I become confused when economics are discussed. Didn’t even reach economics 101. But I don’t think ‘productivity’ means the number of widgets you put into a box in an hour or the low wages you could get. I think it’s much more complicated, but Abbott thinks it’s the widgets and the hourly pay.
davidwh@4904
Like what?
lizzie I don’t know what he does for a living but his tweets are always getting posted here and when I suggested last week he was a touch biased I was told he is actually a conservative.
davidwh@4918
Same criteria you apply to Murphy.
Mind you I’m sure Murphy would also insist he is his own person and never anyone’s *stooge*.
chris murphy @chrismurphys
A Wishlist? Like to see the Court transcript of Abbott’s Indecent Assault Charge & all Chris Pyne’s ph text messages. #auspol
just catchin up here…isnt he a tease?
davidwh
Ooohhh, that’s where you’re coming from. I think someone said he was “close to” Alan Jones in some way? Is that what you mean?
Whatever Murphy is… he should stop his cryptic teasing and disclose what he knows. It’s completely un-Australian in my view.
davidwh – here’s his twitter reference.
Sydney, Australia · http://www.murphyslawyers.com/christopher-murphy
@dave4919
Thanks that clears things up for me
A Good Lurk went:
[Just polled by EMR.]
“EMR”? What were you asked?
In very simple terms productivity improvement means producing more units of economic output with the same amount of economic inputs or producing the same units of output with less inputs. There are many ways you can achieve this including working smarter, harder or through improved use of technology etc.
It doesn’t mean paying people less to produce the same level of output.
Economists understanding of productivity, units out for a given unit in.
Liberal understanding of productivity, profits made off each worker.
ruawake@4931
Its also an excuse used by lesser management as a copout when the old ticket clipping no longer works.
Slav G
[Could someone explain it to me in economics terms, what do politicians/economists mean by ‘increasing productivity’?]
Economists: more output for a given level of input (labour, capital, whatever)
Business (generally): more profits
Abbott/Hockey (a guess): probably more profits too (but really, who would know! :evil:)
[It doesn’t mean paying people less to produce the same level of output.]
Excuse me? Reduced cost (wages) + same output = increased productivity.
Well if technology can be introduced that means a given level of output can be produced with less labour units then business would be crazy not to at least consider that wherever the cost of technology is less than the cost of labour replaced. So in that case a business may well achieve more profit per employee.
Testing Testing Testing.
If this comment goes to moderation, this is Mick Collins, I have changed my nic, and this is a test post.
I hope that clears everything up.
[Excuse me? Reduced cost (wages) + same output = increased productivity.]
I disagree gecko. It probably means increased profitability, all else being equal, but the value of economic output remains the same.
BN
[Boer War @ 4893
Okay that’s the first two lots of 870,000 attended to. What about the third lot (and the fourth and the fifth and…)?]
Ask Fran. She’s in charge of this one.
Er these labour units are people and they buy things, if these labour units all get replaced how do they feed themselves?
4936
However the output PER UNIT of input (wage money) is increased.
I’m not sure if you meant me to clear that or not YB, but as you no doubt noticed, it did indeed go into moderation.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
The LNP have started waging war on each other. http://bit.ly/Ryj57t Someone is bound to end up throwing the pin instead of the grenade
+1
Gecko@4934
“productivity” has nothing to do with pay, it has to do with amount of time to produce an outcome, if you pay some $1000 an hour and he produces 1000 button in that hour and you pay someone else $1 and hour and he produces 1 button per hour who is the most productive?
Labour productivity is GDP produced per hour worked. The amount paid for that hour worked, or when it occurs is irrelevant.
rua 4939 that is one side of the argument, or one part of the argument, but there are others. Australia is riddled with industry and business that was either unable or incapable of adjusting to competition from markets who either had cheaper labour costs or adopted technology and what happened to those people employed in those industries and business? In economic theory at least, and we are discussing things from an economic theory perspective, society as a whole benefits from productivity improvemnts, there is more value in the economy to be shared around and those employees find work in industry and business that is able to take advantage of the improved productivity.
It’s not really logical, in economic terms, to forego productivity improvements simply to protect jobs in industries which have become uncompetitive due to a failure to address productivity issues.
Of course it is not always as simple as what economic theory says it is because we are dealing with real people and real lives.
20% decrease in wages = 10% decline in productivity = 1% increase in company’s profit. Clearly a winner for the Libs.
Poss @4929
Federal voting intention, approval or otherwise of PMJG & TA, main issues determining vote, who did I think would win, & essentially the same questions for Robertson electorate.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
It’s Groundhog day in Newmanville – telling workers one thing, media another and blaming unions when they get nabbed http://bit.ly/RyjQNP
A Good Lurk@4903
EMRS? Are you in Tas?
davidwh@4944
Indeed its not simple and there are all sorts on motivations in employers screaming *productivity*.
Consider this from Kohler article a while ago –
[ For a few years now, Treasury and the Reserve Bank have been banging on about Australia’s hopeless productivity performance.
…In their short paper earlier this month, The Australia’s Institute’s Richard Denniss and David Richardson conclude that the decline in productivity is entirely – not even partly – a temporary phenomenon caused by the mining boom.
They say that since the beginning of the mining boom in the early part of the 2000s, labour productivity in the mining industry has almost halved, from $1.2 million per annum to $666,000, while productivity growth in the rest of the economy has increased.
“A major explanation of this decline (in mining productivity) is related to the fact that high commodity prices are encouraging mining companies to pursue less and less productive mine sites.” ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Productivity-Treasury-RBA-economy-Reserve-Bank-Gle-pd20110928-M4RUZ?OpenDocument&src=sph
A Good Lurk – thankee sir!
Chris Murphy is a free individual who can express any views he likes.
It’s a bit different to employed journalists with their own agendas pretending to be unbiased.
Speaking of biased journalists, for every Labor supporter, I could name 5 who support the Noalition.